Tue 2010-10-12 16:01 EDT

billy blog >> Blog Archive >> Iceland ... another neo-liberal casuality

...For a real world example of the benefits of adopting a floating, sovereign, currency we can look to Argentina....At the time of the 2001 crisis, the government realised it had to adopt a domestically-oriented growth strategy. One of the first policy initiatives taken by newly elected President Kirchner was a massive job creation program that guaranteed employment for poor heads of households. Within four months, the Plan Jefes y Jefas de Hogar (Head of Households Plan) had created jobs for 2 million participants which was around 13 per cent of the labour force. This not only helped to quell social unrest by providing income to Argentina's poorest families, but it also put the economy on the road to recovery. Conservative estimates of the multiplier effect of the increased spending by Jefes workers are that it added a boost of more than 2.5 per cent of GDP. In addition, the program provided needed services and new public infrastructure that encouraged additional private sector spending. Without the flexibility provided by a sovereign, floating, currency, the government would not have been able to promise such a job guarantee. Argentina demonstrated something that the World's financial masters didn't want anyone to know about. That a country with huge foreign debt obligations can default successfully and enjoy renewed fortune based on domestic employment growth strategies and more inclusive welfare policies without an IMF austerity program being needed. And then as growth resumes, renewed FDI floods in...sovereign governments are not necessarily at the hostage of global financial markets. They can steer a strong recovery path based on domestically-orientated policies -- such as the introduction of a Job Guarantee -- which directly benefit the population by insulating the most disadvantaged workers from the devastation that recession brings...

Billy Blog; blogs Archive; Iceland; neo-liberal casuality.

naked capitalism Mon 2010-09-20 19:10 EDT

American Businesses and Consumers are NOT Deleveraging ... They Are Going On One Last Binge

Everyone knows that the American consumer is deleveraging ... living more frugally, and paying down debt. Right?...Karl Denninger notes: ``From a peak in 2005 of $13.1 trillion in equity in residential real estate, that value has now diminished by approximately half to $6.67 trillion!Yet outstanding household debt has in fact increased from $11.7 trillion to $13.5 trillion today. Folks, those who claim that we have ``de-levered'' are lying. Not only has the consumer not de-levered but business is actually gearing up -- putting the lie to any claim that they have ``record cash.'' Well, yes, but they also have record debt, and instead of decreasing leverage levels they're adding to them'' ...the government has done everything it can to prevent deleveraging by the financial companies, and to re-lever up the economy to dizzying levels.

American businesses; Binge; consumer; deleveraging; Go; naked capitalism.

naked capitalism Sun 2010-08-22 09:32 EDT

Auerback: News Flash-- China Reduces US Treasury Holdings, World Does Not Come To an End

Marshall Auerback

In a post titled ``China Cuts US Treasury Holdings By Record Amount,'' Mike Norman makes the excellent observation that while China is moving its money out of Treasuries, interest rates are hitting record lows. In other words, the sky still isn't falling. So, Mike wonders, ``Where is the Debt/Doomsday crowd?'' He rightly concludes: ``They're nowhere to be found because they can't explain this. This is a `gut punch' to them. Their whole theory is out the window. They just don't understand or don't want to understand, that interest rates are set by the Fed...PERIOD!!!''...Also of note today: Tokyo's Nikkei QUICK News reports that the #309 10-year Japanese benchmark government bond, the current benchmark, traded to a yield of 0.920% Tuesday morning, down 2.5 basis points from yesterday's close. This is the lowest yield since August 13, 2003. This, from a country with a public debt-to-GDP ratio of 210%!...These are facts. Inconvenient for those who like to perpetuate the lie that the US or Japan faces imminent national insolvency as a means of justifying their almost daily attacks on proactive fiscal policy...

Auerback; China reducing; comes; ending; naked capitalism; News Flash; Treasury holds; world.

naked capitalism Sun 2010-07-25 16:28 EDT

The Irish mess

Richard Smith

The Irish banks got in a big mess with duff RE loans. The government swapped discounted bad loans for government-issued bonds...the whole thing is the usual dump onto taxpayers...loans to no more than ten or a dozen of these developers account for EUR 20Bn of the EUR70Bn face value of the debts exchanged...The extra national debt incurred (so far) equates to EUR25,000 per taxpayer. And EUR6,500 of that goes to repair damage inflicted by just a dozen well-placed spivs. Then go for some fairly brutal austerity to sort out the new debt/GDP ratio (Irish unemployment was 13.5% the last time I looked). You will have some pretty discontented citizens, and the debt/GDP ratio will stay the same, or get worse, so you cut again...

Irish mess; naked capitalism.

New Deal 2.0 Fri 2010-07-16 18:50 EDT

Despite Foreign Debts, U.S. Has the Upper Hand

Henry Liu

U.S. public debt as of July 8, 2010 was $ 13.192 trillion against a projected 2010 GDP of $14.743 trillion. As of April 2010, China held $900.2 billion of US Treasuries, surpassing Japan's holding of $795.5 billion. As of 2007, outstanding GSE (Government Sponsored Enterprises like Fanny Mae; Freddy Mac) debt securities (non-mortgage and those backed by mortgages) summed up to $7.37 trillion. Does this mean disaster for the US? ...the U.S., while vulnerable, is not critically over a barrel by massive foreign holdings of U.S. sovereign debt. The reason is because U.S. sovereign debts are all denominated in dollars, a fiat currency that the Federal Reserve can issue at will. The U.S. has no foreign debt in the strict sense of the term. It has domestic debt denominated in its own fiat currency held in large quantities by foreign governments. The U.S. is never in danger of defaulting on its sovereign debt because it can print all the dollars necessary to pay off foreign holders of its debt. There is also no incentive for the foreign holders of U.S. sovereign debt to push for repayment, as that will only cause the U.S. to print more dollars to cause the dollar to fall further in exchange rates... ...trade globalization through cross-border wage arbitrage also pushes down wages in the US and other advanced economies, causing insufficient consumer income to absorb rising global production. This is the main cause of the current financial crises which have made more severe by financial deregulation. But the root cause is global overcapacity due to low wages of workers who cannot afford to buy what they produce. The world economy is plagued with overcapacity as a result. It is not enough to merely focus on job creation. Jobs must pay wages high enough to eliminate overcapacity. Instead of a G20 coordination on fiscal austerity, there needs to be a G20 commitment to raise wages globally. [Henry C.K. Liu]

0; Foreign debt; new dealing 2; U.S.; upper hand.

Fri 2010-06-18 10:24 EDT

The Progressive Economics Forum >> Remembering Wynne Godley

Jim Stanford

Progressive economists everywhere should say a thank you this week to Wynne Godley, who passed away May 13...His final major volume (published by Palgrave in 2007) was a tour de force of heterodox macro theory, co-written with Canada's (and the PEF's) own Marc Lavoie: Monetary Economics: An Integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production and Wealth. Like Minsky, he can say ``I told you so'' to the whole neoclassical profession - although unlike Minsky, Godley could do this while he was still alive...His work exploring the implications of basic macro identities (such as the basic but oft-ignored fact that all sector deficits in the economy have to sum to zero in equilibrium, and hence not all sectors can be paying down debt simultaneously - someone must be increasing their debt to keep the money flowing) has influenced heterodox writers of all stripes...

Progressive Economics Forum; Remembering Wynne Godley.

billy blog Wed 2010-05-19 12:57 EDT

Naked Keynesianism

New York Times columnist and Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman occasionally brushes up against an understanding of how the macroeconomy works. Some people actually have said to me that he does get it but chooses for political purposes not to disclose a full understanding of the basic principles of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Well in his most recent column -- We're Not Greece -- published May 13, 2010, I think you can conclude that when left to his own devices he doesn't have a clue about what is really happening in the macroeconomy. So today, we are exposing his mainstream (neo-classical) keynesian nakedness -- he is now naked and without clothes...

Billy Blog; Naked Keynesianism.

Dr. Housing Bubble Blog Sun 2010-05-16 15:17 EDT

Housing never really improved -- 10 charts showing the United States housing market is entering the second wave of problems. 1 out of 4 people with no mortgage payment in the last year are still not in the foreclosure process.

To put it bluntly, the U.S. housing market today is in deep water. Nothing exemplifies the transfer of risk to the public from the private investment banks more than the deep losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fannie Mae announced a stunning first quarter loss of $13.1 billion while Freddie Mac lost $8 billion. At the same time, toxic mortgage superstar JP Morgan Chase announced a $3.3 billion profit for Q1. This reversal of fortunes has been orchestrated perfectly by Wall Street. Since the toxic assets were never marked to market, the big losses have been funneled to the big GSEs (and as we will show in this article, now makes up 96.5 percent of the entire mortgage market). In other words, banks are making profits gambling on Wall Street while pushing out mortgages that are completely backed by the government...

1; 10 Charts Showing; 4 people; Dr. Housing Bubble Blog; enters; Foreclosures process; Housing; mortgage payments; problem; really improving; United States housing market; wave; years.

Sun 2010-05-09 09:18 EDT

Why Do Senators Corker And Dodd Really Think We Need Big Banks? >> The Baseline Scenario

Simon Johnson

On Friday, Senator Bob Corker (R, TN) took to the Senate floor to rebut critics of big banks. His language was not entirely senatorial: ``I hope we'll all come to our senses'', while listing the reasons we need big banks. And Senator Chris Dodd (D, CT) rose to agree that (in Corker's words) reducing the size of our largest banks would be ``cutting our nose off to spite our face'' and that by taking on Wall Street, ``we may be taking on the heartland.'' Unfortunately, all of their arguments in favor of our largest banks remaining at or near (or above) their current scale are completely at odds with the facts (e.g., as documented in our book, 13 Bankers). ...As for why exactly Senators Corker and Dodd really support big banks, it seems increasingly likely that this is all about campaign contributions.

Baseline Scenario; Dodd Really Think; Needs Big Banks; Senator Corker.

New Deal 2.0 Tue 2010-03-09 17:23 EST

Wall Street's War Against Consumers and Labor Heats Up

Michael Hudson

...Throughout the world, scaling back the 20th century's legacy of progressive taxation and untaxing real estate and finance has led to a public debt crisis. Property income hitherto paid to governments is now paid to the banks. And although Wall Street has extracted $13 trillion in bailouts just since October 2008, the thought of raising taxes on wealth to pay just $1 trillion over an entire decade for Social Security or health insurance is deemed a crisis that would lead Wall Street to shut down the economy. It is telling governments to shift to a regressive tax system to make up the fiscal shortfall by raising taxes on labor and cutting back public spending on the economy at large. This is what is plunging economies from California to Greece and the Baltics into fiscal and financial crisis. Wall Street's solution - to balance the budget by cutting back the government's social contract and deregulating finance all the more - will shrink the economy and make the budget deficits even more severe. Financial speculators no doubt will clean up on the turmoil.

0; consumer; labor heats; new dealing 2; Wall Street's War.

Sun 2010-01-31 23:06 EST

The Formula for This Market Rally In Simple Terms

The first, most obvious trend is the Manic Mondays trend...for the 43 weeks ended Friday January 8, 2010, stocks have rallied on 30 out of the 43 Mondays...these Monday ramp jobs have contributed the bulk of the market rally's gains since March 2009...The second trend that has dominated this market since the March 2009 bottom is the Bernanke Options Expiration juicing. In simple terms Ben Bernanke has shown a REAL preference for pumping money into the financial system on the exact week when options are expiring...The final trend that has dominated this market is cousin to the Manic Monday Ramp Job. It is the Night Session Ramp Job...from September 13, 2009 until year-end, ALL of the stock market's gains occurred in the over-night futures session from 4:00 ET to 9:30 AM ET...So there you have it, the three most dominant trends of this market rally. None of them are pretty. None of them involve fundamentals. And ALL of them are directly related to the Fed's liquidity pump.

Formula; markets Rally; simple terms.

zero hedge Sun 2009-10-11 16:45 EDT

Interview With A Mad Hedge Fund Trader

...Mad Hedge: Stay away from natural gas. The volatility will kill you. If you are a masochist, then buy it only when it's cheap, on big dips, in the $3/MBTU range. In the last three years, thanks to the new ``fracting'' technology used in oil shales, we have discovered a 100 year supply of natural gas sitting under the US, and the producers have not been able to cut back fast enough. So now we have a supply glut, and we are almost out of storage. This is what took us down from $13 to $2.40 in 18 months. The lack of hurricanes has not helped demand either. Producers have been cutting back like crazy, trying to balance supply and demand, with a breakeven point of $2. They need a cold winter to help bring things back into balance. If the industry gets organized, then gas can become the 20 year bridge we need, until energy alternatives kick in. That makes me a big supporter of the ``Pickens Plan.''

interview; Mad Hedge Fund Trader; Zero Hedge.

Calculated Risk Fri 2009-09-04 19:01 EDT

Junk Bond Default Rate Passes 10 Percent

CalculatedRisk

From Rolfe Winkler at Reuters: U.S. junk bond default rate rises to 10.2 pct -SP The U.S. junk bond default rate rose to 10.2 percent in August from 9.4 percent in July ... Standard & Poor's data showed on Thursday. The default rate is expected to rise to 13.9 percent by July 2010 and could reach as high as 18 percent if economic conditions are worse than expected, SP said in a statement. ... In another sign of corporate distress, the rating agency has downgraded $2.9 trillion of company debt year to date, up from $1.9 trillion in the same period last year. Bad loans everywhere ...

Calculated Risk; Junk Bond Default Rate Passes 10 Percent.

Sat 2009-06-13 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Links 6/13/09

DownSouth reads Richard Kline's ``our next twenty plus years. Argentina twenty times larger.''; ``American exceptionalism therefore will most likely not die an easy death, and the U.S. will not be spared that final humbling, and destructive, drubbing.''

Links 6/13/09; naked capitalism.

The IRA Analyst Tue 2009-04-21 00:00 EDT

The Institutional Risk Analyst: Stress Test Zombies: Not Too Big To Fail? Tough Tootsies Little Banks!

2009-03-13; ``The Bernanke/Geithner approach to not dealing with the financial crisis amounts to a hideous public subsidy of the global transactional class, a transfer of wealth from American taxpayers to the institutional investors who hold the bonds and derivative obligations tied to the zombie banks, AIG and the GSEs. All of these companies will require continuing cash subsidies if they are not resolved in bankruptcy.''

bank; big; fail; Institutional Risk Analyst; IRA Analyst; Stress Test Zombies; Tough Tootsies.

Tue 2009-04-21 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: AIG Posts List of <strike>Beneficiaries of Government Largesse</strike> Counterparties

naked capitalism: AIG Posts List of Beneficiaries of Government Largesse Counterparties; Goldman Sachs received 13 billion

AIG Posts List; beneficiaries; counterparty; government largesse; naked capitalism; striking.

Fri 2008-11-07 00:00 EST

Jesse's Café Américain: A Credit Bubble of Historic Proportions

Jesse's Café Américain: A Credit Bubble of Historic Proportions; 2008-10-13

credit bubble; historic proportions; Jesse's Café Américain.

Tue 2008-10-28 00:00 EDT

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Four Magic Words - "We Are Providing Capital" - October 13, 2008

``Stocks are now measurably undervalued''

2008; Hussman Funds; magic words; October 13; provide capital; weekly market comments.

Tue 2008-09-23 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: AIG Bailout: Fed Loophole 13.3

3; AIG Bailout; Fed Loophole 13; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Mon 2007-09-17 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Fitch Discloses Its Fatally Flawed Rating Model

2007-07-13

Fatally Flawed Rating Model; Fitch disclosed; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.