billy blog Wed 2010-09-29 10:15 EDT

Budget deficits do not cause higher interest rates

Bill Mitchell

...An often-cited paper outlining the ways in which budget deficits allegedly push up interest rates is -- Government Debt -- by Elmendorf and Mankiw (1998 -- subsequently published in a book in 1999). This paper was somewhat influential in perpetuating the mainstream myths about government debt and interest rates...Their depiction of...Ricardian equivalence...alleges that: ``the choice between debt and tax finance of government expenditure is irrelevant...[because]...a budget deficit today...[requires]...higher taxes in the future...'' ...I have dealt with this view extensively...Ignoring the fact that the description of a government raising taxes to pay back a deficit is nonsensical when applied to a fiat currency issuing government, the Ricardian Equivalence models rest [on] several key and extreme assumptions about behaviour and knowledge. Should any of these assumptions fail to hold (at any point in time), then the predictions of the models are meaningless. The other point is that the models have failed badly to predict or explain key policy changes in the past. That is no surprise given the assumptions they make about human behaviour. There are no Ricardian economies. It was always an intellectual ploy without any credibility to bolster the anti-government case that was being fought then (late 1970s, early 1980s) just as hard as it is being fought now...So where do the mainstream economists go wrong? At the heart of this conception is the [pre-Keynesian] theory of loanable funds...where perfectly flexible prices delivered self-adjusting, market-clearing aggregate markets at all times...Mankiw claims that this ``market works much like other markets in the economy''...[assuming] that savings are finite and the government spending is financially constrained which means it has to seek ``funding'' in order to progress their fiscal plans. The result competition for the ``finite'' saving pool drives interest rates up and damages private spending. This is what is taught under the heading ``financial crowding out''...Virtually none of the assumptions that underpin the key mainstream models relating to the conduct of government and the monetary system hold in the real world...When confronted with increasing empirical failures, the mainstream economists introduce these ad hoc amendments to the specifications to make them more realistic...The Australian Treasury Paper [used advanced econometric analysis to find that] domestic budget deficits do not drive up interest rates. The long-run effect...is virtually zero. The short-run effect is zero!...toss out your Mankiw textbooks...

Billy Blog; budgets deficit; caused higher Interest rate.

Wed 2010-07-21 10:34 EDT

Paul Debates Jamie and MMT | Corrente

Paul Krugman, well-known for his opposition to the austerity concerns of the deficit terrorists and his advocacy of additional Government stimulus to lower unemployment and end the recession, just ignited a paradigm conflict which promises to clarify for many, the issues dividing ``deficit doves'' like Paul, from economists who take a Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) approach to economics, which holds, among other things, that Government deficits and surpluses are not, in themselves important, and that Government spending has to be evaluated relative to its impact on public purposes...this conclusion and also Paul's first post both set up a ``straw man,'' because Jamie never claimed that deficits are never a problem, and even pointed to circumstances (conditions of full employment) where deficits could lead to inflation. Given the comments on Paul's first blog, including a very clear comment by Marshall Auerback, it should have been clear to him that he was distorting the position of both Jamie and MMT. But evidently, Paul didn't want to admit that...Jamie and the MMT economists are opposed to the very idea, the very framing of Government's role in the economy in a way that makes everything subject to deficits, national debts, and debt-to-GDP ratios. The position of MMT is that these numbers are just endogenous consequences of real economic activity including Government fiscal activity, and that it is this activity that ought to drive them and not the other way around...

Corrente; MMT; Paul Debates Jamie.

Minyanville Fri 2010-07-16 14:43 EDT

Intel Shows the 'Financialization' of Corporate America

Peter Atwater

To quote the company's own earnings headline: "Intel Reports Best Quarter Ever."While not taking anything away from the company's ability to deliver I'd strongly encourage readers to look at Intel's (INTC) balance sheet. To these eyes it's filled with financial assets...few have paid attention to what I term the "financialization" of corporate balance sheets, in which productive manufacturing assets have been increasingly replaced by various financial instruments, derivatives, and goodwill...because so much of corporate balance-sheet space is now a function of credit and market risk, financialization has created much tighter correlations to financial institutions than many currently think...And with corporate balance sheets more and more laden with financial instruments, it isn't just going to be product innovation that drives what earnings are ahead for companies like Intel.

Corporate America; Financial; Intel shows; Minyanville.

Credit Writedowns Fri 2010-07-16 14:22 EDT

Paul McCulley does Modern Monetary Theory

PIMCO's Paul McCulley: ``the Financial Times' Martin Wolf...cited in a recent column the financial balances approach of the late Wynne Godley...Godley's analytical framework should be the workhorse of discussions of global rebalancing, in the context of a deficiency of global aggregate demand. So, it was wonderful to see Martin riding Godley's horse...'' Edward Harrison: McCulley makes my point that government deficits are not the cause of private sector surpluses but rather the reverse -- private sector debt distress is causing deleveraging and driving up net savings -- which causes greater government deficits.

credit writedowns; Modern Monetary Theory; Paul McCulley.

Wed 2010-06-09 18:39 EDT

billy blog >> Blog Archive >> The comeback of conservative ideology

Bill Mitchell

Today I have been writing about the resurgence of the conservative ideology...Ever hear the term Ruthanasia? You should have because she is still at it berating us about the wrongs of fiscal policy and the need for radical reform. Ruth Richardson was New Zealand's minister of finance from 1990-93...As an historical episode ``Ruthanasia'' followed ``Rogernomics'' as increasingly radical reform programs that were inflicted on the New Zealand population from 1984 onwards -- for the next few decades...Unemployment became a policy tool (for disciplining inflation) rather than a primary policy target. The inflation-first monetary stance (and undemocratic reforms of the central bank) combined with a harsh fiscal policy contraction to drive up unemployment and significantly reduce per capita income...Successive right-wing governments (which not only included the conservatives but also the Lange Labour Party government which started it all) used the concept of a "strategic deficit". David Stockman, the budget director under President Reagan, was the person to coin this term which is taken to mean using a budget deficit as a "political weapon". The strategy was to hand out huge tax cuts to allegedly "incentivise" (the word that was used at the time) private entrepreneurs even though there has never been any convincing research evidence to suggest that there are major losses of activity arising from taxation. The resulting deficits were then paraded as evidence of the need for dramatic public spending cut backs...The experience of New Zealand during those years of being ruthanased by the free market zealots should serve as a warning to all of us...

Billy Blog; blogs Archive; comeback; Conservative ideology.

New Economic Perspectives Mon 2010-05-24 10:52 EDT

The Coming European Debt Wars

Michael Hudson

Government debt in Greece is just the first in a series of European debt bombs that are set to explode. The mortgage debts in post-Soviet economies and Iceland are more explosive. Although these countries are not in the Eurozone, most of their debts are denominated in euros. Some 87% of Latvia's debts are in euros or other foreign currencies, and are owed mainly to Swedish banks, while Hungary and Romania owe euro-debts mainly to Austrian banks. So their government borrowing by non-euro members has been to support exchange rates to pay these private sector debts to foreign banks, not to finance a domestic budget deficit as in Greece...No one wants to accept the fact that debts that can't be paid, won't be. Someone must bear the cost as debts go into default or are written down, to be paid in sharply depreciated currencies...The question is, who will bear the loss?...There is growing recognition that the post-Soviet economies were structured from the start to benefit foreign interests, not local economies. For example, Latvian labor is taxed at over 50% (labor, employer, and social tax) -- so high as to make it noncompetitive, while property taxes are less than 1%, providing an incentive toward rampant speculation...Future relations between Old and New Europe will depend on the Eurozone's willingness to re-design the post-Soviet economies on more solvent lines -- with more productive credit and a less rentier-biased tax system that promotes employment rather than asset-price inflation that drives labor to emigrate...

Coming European Debt Wars; New Economic Perspectives.

zero hedge Sat 2010-05-22 13:41 EDT

Albert Edwards: Europe Is On The Edge Of A Deflationary Precipice That Will, Paradoxically, Usher In 20-30% Inflation

A few days ago we pointed out that the latest Japanese GDP deflator came at multi-decade lows, this despite years of printing, pumping and other -ings. Today, Albert Edwards takes the observation of rampant regional deflation and concludes precisely what we have long claimed, that once rampant deflation is finally acknowledged by central bankers everywhere, and they are now running out for time, their only natural response to preserve the system will be to do what Japan has been doing for decades (successfully, they will claim) and respond with the most extreme round of monetization ever seen, "inevitably driving us towards out ultimate destination - 1970's style 20-30% inflation."...

20 30; Albert Edwards; deflationary precipice; edge; Europe; Inflation; paradox; usher; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Tue 2010-04-27 07:50 EDT

Janet Tavakoli: "President Obama - Bring Back Black"

William K. Black, a regulator during the dark days of the Savings & Loan Crisis, gave the most sensible testimony about the financial crisis heard in Washington so far.* Fraud thrives and spreads in a regulatory free, highly paid, criminogenic environment. Cheaters prosper driving honesty out of the market...It's time to bring back Black and resolute regulators like him. Our proposed "financial reform" bill is a sham, and the health of our society and our economy is at stake...

Black; bringing; Janet Tavakoli; President Obama; Zero Hedge.

Mon 2010-04-26 14:57 EDT

SPIEGEL ONLINE - Druckversion - A Homecoming for Lost Jobs: Burned by Offshoring, Mid-Sized Firms Return Production to Germany - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

SPIEGEL ONLINE, Hamburg, Germany

The trend towards offshoring production from Germany to other countries is slowly being reversed, with medium-sized businesses leading the way. In fact, Germany is itself becoming an attractive location for foreign investment...Many thousands of German companies joined the march to Eastern Europe and China during the past 15 years, hoping to reduce production costs there. But recently many have been returning, disillusioned. Smaller companies in particular are finding they overestimated the apparent advantages of low labor costs or more advantageous tax laws. So far, it has not been the largest and most well known companies that have begun reconsidering Germany as a production location. And the return home usually involves considerably less ballyhoo than the earlier offshoring of production. Nevertheless, the trend is significant because medium-sized companies are both the heart and the driving force behind the German economy...

burned; Druckversion; Germany; homecoming; International; Lost Jobs; Mid-Sized Firms Return Production; news; offshore; Spiegel Online.

naked capitalism Wed 2010-04-07 19:38 EDT

Have Bloggers ``Won''? And Is That a Bad Thing?

...[MSM difficulties] Richard Kline: ...Most of the MSM is owned by large corporations which abhor any serious questioning of the status quo. Most of the MSM decided a generation ago to pitch their product at the soft middle of the demographic curve; that's `dumb down' to those ow you who need a scorecard. Most of the MSM went to recent journalism school and bought into the idea of false `balancing' which has castrated their editorial opinion in favor of whoever is driving debate by telling the latest Big Lie. Then there is the problem of self-interested 'sources,' hardly new, and manageable when journalists were allowed to have an opinion themselves, but deleterious when they are supposed to be `neutral,' i.e. readily maniplulatible. Then there is the issue that too many journalists have decided to become propagandists for the status quo of the moment, making their reportage the worst kind of bandwagon swillage. Then too, MSM has responded, or rather _not_ responded to the emergence of new kinds of media spreading current information reportage: just when the MSM needs established `quality brand' to fall back on they find that they gutted the brand to fellate large shareholders and the interests of the same.

bad things; bloggers; naked capitalism; won.

THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST Wed 2010-04-07 18:22 EDT

THE ENRON BANKING SYSTEM

TPC

``Panics do not destroy capital -- they merely reveal the extent to which it has previously been destroyed by its betrayal in hopelessly unproductive works'' -- John Mills ...We should draw a distinct line in the sand between banks and diverse risk taking firms. There are always going to be Enron's in the economy, but why should we allow our entire banking sector to mirror Enron? Taking a 30,000 foot risk management view I say something must be done to ensure these banks can never do this again. Turn banks into true banks. Hedging and exotic business models are fine. Just don't commingle them under the same umbrella as a deposit taking ``bank''. With that, a few ideas come to mind: * Our banking system should be aligned with the goals of the nation to help ``grease'' the wheels of the economic growth engine of the United States. Banks should be more like utilities and less like hedge funds. Otherwise, banking becomes counter-productive and potentially destructive. * Banks should not be allowed to exact onerous fees on the public or enact a business model which is inherently dependent on driving their customers deeper and deeper into debt. This undermines the entire goal of productive economic growth. * ``Banks'' should be true lending institutions. Non-traditional banking operations and products such as CDS, ``off balance sheet'' finance, derivatives as collateral and such would be deemed illegal unless performed only by non banking/lending institutions (such as hedge funds) so as to insulate the public and true lending institutions from the risk taking, ``hedging'', and ``financial innovation'' of firms such as Lehman Brothers.

ENRON BANKING SYSTEM; pragmatic capitalists.

China Financial Markets Thu 2010-03-04 08:47 EST

Stuck in neutral -- what Japan's rebalancing can teach us

Michael Pettis

...A few days ago I read a good article (``Stuck on Neutral'') about Japan [from] the Economist...about Japan's post-1989 rebalancing, ...discusses why, in spite of every attempt, Japan has not been able supposedly to rebalance the economy and achieve any real growth during the two lost decades after 1990. Private consumption never took off to drive economic growth...After many years of excess investment driving growth, Japan's rebalancing process, which occurred after corporate, bank and government debt levels prevented the investment party from continuing, locked the country into many years of slow growth because it had to grind through years of debt-fueled overinvestment...it doesn't matter what individual policies we take to boost consumption if these polices don't in the aggregate represent a real transfer of income to the household sector, as they did not in Japan...Japan's experience suggests one of the risks China faces...Chinese household consumption will undoubtedly rise as a share of Chinese GDP over the next decade or two, but the process nonetheless can be disappointing for growth. It depends on lots of other moving parts, most importantly perhaps the change in investment and the speed with which income is transferred to households. And the change in investment might depend on debt capacity constraints and the extent of earlier overinvestment.

China Financial Markets; Japan's rebalancing; neutral; stuck; teach.

Sun 2010-02-28 13:27 EST

Janet Tavakoli: Washington Abandons Greece: Beware of Geeks Bearing Grifts

Janet Tavakoli

The European Union (EU) is shocked--shocked I tell you!--that Greece used financial engineering to qualify for admission. Exactly how did they think that weaker countries managed to meet the requirements?...A few years ago, Greece engaged in derivatives transactions which essentially gave it a disguised loan, a gift from geeks. Greece may or may not have had plans to invest the money to create national wealth instead of say, blowing it all on national bling. Either way, Greece used its national credit card in a futile attempt to keep up with the EU Joneses...Today, rumors are that crony capitalists are using derivatives to profit from Greece's misery. There are allegations that investment banks and hedge funds used their knowledge of Greece's hidden debt to drive up its borrowing cost and drive down the Euro. Then these speculators reversed their positions, when they had advance information of a potential bailout for Greece. Other rumors suggest customized trades on the sovereign credit derivatives index also exploited Greece's problems. Still other rumors point to a campaign to manipulate Greek debt prices and knock down the Euro.

Beware; Geeks Bearing Grifts; Janet Tavakoli; Washington Abandons Greece.

naked capitalism Sun 2010-02-28 13:13 EST

Das: Mark to Make Believe -- Still Toxic After All These Years!

Satyajit Das

n 2007, as the credit crisis commenced, paradoxically, nobody actually defaulted. Outside of sub-prime delinquencies, corporate defaults were at a record low. Instead, investors in high quality (AAA or AA) rated securities, that are unlikely to suffer real losses if held to maturity, faced paper -- mark-to-market (``MtM'') -- losses. In modern financial markets, market values drive asset values, profits and losses, risk calculations and the value of collateral supporting loans. Accounting standards, both in the U.S.A. and internationally, are now based on theoretically sound market values that are problematic in practice. The standards emerged from the past financial crisis where the use of ``historic cost'' accounting meant that losses on loans remained undisclosed because they continued to be carried at face value. The standards also reflect the fact that many modern financial instruments (such as derivatives) can only be accounted for in MtM framework. MtM accounting itself is flawed. There are difficulties in establishing real values of many instruments. It creates volatility in earnings attributable to inefficiencies in markets rather than real changes in financial position...

Das; Make-Believe; marked; naked capitalism; toxic; years.

naked capitalism Fri 2010-02-05 11:06 EST

FDIC Proposes Tough-Minded Securitization Reforms; Industry Howls

...the FDIC presented a cogent and tough-minded plan for securtization reform at the American Securitization Forum...The driving element is that the FDIC is proposing to change the requirements for a securitization to be treated as a true sale, meaning that when the originator sells the mortgages to a securitization vehicle (say a trust), the investors in that vehicle cannot go back to the originator for recourse...The FDIC included various proposals to insure transparency for investors, including a requirement that all deals be arms length, to third party investors (no affiliates or insiders). They would exclude derivatives (excluding interest rate swaps) and would not permit re-securitizations...a clever effect of this proposal was that it solved the problem of ``what to do with rating agencies'' by making them irrelevant

FDIC Proposes Tough-Minded Securitization Reforms; Industry Howls; naked capitalism.

zero hedge Thu 2010-01-07 18:52 EST

David Rosenberg's 2010 Outlook "The Recession Is Really A Depression"

The credit collapse and the accompanying deflation and overcapacity are going to drive the economy and financial markets in 2010. We have said repeatedly that this recession is really a depression because the recessions of the post-WWII experience were merely small backward steps in an inventory cycle but in the context of expanding credit. Whereas now, we are in a prolonged period of credit contraction, especially as it relates to households and small businesses (as we highlighted in our small business sentiment write-up yesterday).

David Rosenberg's 2010 Outlook; Depression; really; Recession; Zero Hedge.

Fri 2009-10-23 09:42 EDT

America's soul is lost, collapse inevitable - MarketWatch

Paul B. Farrell

Jack Bogle published "The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism" four years ago. The battle's over. The sequel should be titled: "Capitalism Died a Lost Soul." Worse, we've lost "America's Soul." And, worldwide, the consequences will be catastrophic. That's why a man like Hong Kong contrarian economist Marc Faber warns in his Doom, Boom & Gloom Report: "The future will be a total disaster, with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it today." No, not just another meltdown, another bear-market recession like the one recently triggered by Wall Street's too-greedy-to-fail banks. Faber is warning that the entire system of capitalism will collapse. Get it? The engine driving the great "American Economic Empire" for 233 years will collapse, a total disaster, a destiny we created.

America s Soul; Collapse Inevitable; lost; MarketWatch.

Mon 2009-10-05 11:23 EDT

New Bubble Threatens a V-Shaped Rebound

Andy Xie

...What we are seeing now in the global economy is a pure liquidity bubble. It's been manifested in several asset classes. The most prominent are commodities, stocks and government bonds. The story that supports this bubble is that fiscal stimulus would lead to quick economic recovery, and the output gap could keep inflation down. Hence, central banks can keep interest rates low for a couple more years...I think the market is being misled. The driving forces for the current bounce are inventory cycle and government stimulus. The follow-through from corporate capex and consumption are severely constrained by structural challenges. These challenges have origins in the bubble that led to a misallocation of resources. After the bubble burst, a mismatch of supply and demand limited the effectiveness of either stimulus or a bubble in creating demand...he structural challenges arise from global imbalance and industries that over-expanded due to exaggerated demand supported in the past by cheap credit and high asset prices. At the global level, the imbalance is between deficit-bound Anglo-Saxon economies (Australia, Britain and the United States) and surplus emerging economies (mainly China and oil exporters)...The old equilibrium cannot be restored, and many structural barriers stand in the way of a new equilibrium. The current recovery is based on a temporary and unstable equilibrium in which the United States slows the rise of its national savings rate by increasing the fiscal deficit, and China lowers its savings surplus by boosting government spending and inflating an assets bubble.

New Bubble Threatens; Shaped Rebound.

Sun 2009-09-20 14:12 EDT

America's Exhausted Paradigm: Macroeconomic Causes of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession | The New America Foundation

Thomas Palley

This report traces the roots of the current financial crisis to a faulty U.S. macroeconomic paradigm. One flaw in this paradigm was the neo-liberal growth model adopted after 1980 that relied on debt and asset price inflation to drive demand. A second flaw was the model of U.S. engagement with the global economy that created a triple economic hemorrhage of spending on imports, manufacturing job losses, and off-shoring of investment. Deregulation and financial excess are important parts of the story, but they are not the ultimate cause of the crisis. Instead, they facilitated the housing bubble and are actually part of the neo-liberal model, their function being to fuel demand growth based on debt and asset price inflation. The old post-World War II growth model based on rising middle-class incomes has been dismantled, while the new neo-liberal growth model has imploded. The United States needs a new economic paradigm and a new growth model, but as yet this challenge has received little attention from policymakers or economists.

America's Exhausted Paradigm; Financial Crisis; Great Recession; Macroeconomic Causes; New America Foundation.

Zero Hedge Wed 2009-08-26 15:52 EDT

The Goldman VaR Exemption Question Escalates

Tyler Durden

It seems only yesterday that Zero Hedge had some questions in regard to Goldman's VaR Fed exemption. No response was received from 85 Broad. Today it appears several Congressmen, lead by Alan Grayson, are willing to drive a sharp stick pretty deep into the hornets' nest, by sending a letter directly to Wall Street Don Ben Bernanke, demanding an explanation exactly to the question of Goldman's VaR Exemption. Posted 2009-07-27.

Goldman VaR Exemption Question Escalates; Zero Hedge.

Thu 2009-07-30 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Guest Post: Chasing The Shadow Of Money

-- Friedrich Hayek's seminal Prices and Production, published in the depression days of 1935...discerned the critical role of the shadow banking system long before the advent of securitization, derivatives and other products that today have caused the monetary supply problem to reach a screaming crescendo...shadow money and credit are not just the dynamo that drives the free market, but also its Achilles heel

chasing; Guest Post; money; naked capitalism; shadows.

Fri 2008-11-07 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: Bailout Plan Drives Up Mortgage Rates

Bailout Plan Drives; mortgage rates; naked capitalism.

Fri 2008-05-30 00:00 EDT

The Big Picture | The Costanza Energy Policy: 25 Ways to Drive Oil to $150

US energy policies consistently drove oil prices upward

150; 25 Ways; Big Picture; Costanza Energy Policy; driving oil.

Thu 2007-12-20 00:00 EST

Bear In Mind > Fannie Mae: Systemic time bomb

Bear In Mind > Fannie Mae: Systemic time bomb; half of issued debt bought by non-US investors; risky mortgage exposure 10x capital base; falling home prices drive foreclosures, huge Fannie Mae losses

Bear; Fannie Mae; mind; Systemic time bomb.

Wed 2007-05-09 00:00 EDT

The Foundation For Taxpayer & Consumer Rights (FTCR)

The Foundation For Taxpayer & Consumer Rights (FTCR): New Gasoline Study Shows Profits, Not Crude Oil Prices Or Ethanol, Are Driving Pump Price Spike

consumer rights; Foundation; FTCR; Taxpayers.

Tue 2006-09-19 00:00 EDT

[print version] Biodiesel to drive up the price of cooking oil | CNET News.com

Biodiesel to drive up the price of cooking oil | CNET News.com

Biodiesel; CNET News; com; cooking oil; drives; Price; Print version.