dimelab dimelab: shrinking the gap between talk and action.

inevitably Topic in The Credit Debacle Catalog

apparent inevitability (1); becomes inevitably (4); bubble's inevitable pop spill (1); Collapse Inevitable (1); counter-violence inevitable (1); increasingly inevitable disaster (1); inevitable collapse (2); inevitable debacle (1); inevitable outcome (1); inevitably driving (1); inflation inevitably (1); Recession Becoming Inevitable (1); resisting inevitability (1); seemingly inevitable collapse (1); subsequent bailout inevitable (1).

Fri 2010-10-08 21:53 EDT

MERS 101

MERS - Mortgage Electronic Registration Inc. - holds approximately 60 million American mortgages and is a Delaware corporation whose sole shareholder is Mers Corp. MersCorp and its specified members have agreed to include the MERS corporate name on any mortgage that was executed in conjunction with any mortgage loan made by any member of MersCorp...Thus in place of the original lender being named as the mortgagee on the mortgage that is supposed to secure their loan, MERS is named as the ``nominee'' for the lender who actually loaned the money to the borrower. In other words MERS is really nothing more than a name that is used on the mortgage instrument in place of the actual lender. MERS' primary function, therefore, is to act as a document custodian. MERS was created solely to simplify the process of transferring mortgages by avoiding the need to re-record liens -- and pay county recorder filing fees -- each time a loan is assigned. Instead, servicer's record loans only once and MERS' electronic system monitors transfers and facilitates the trading of notes...MersCorp was created in the early 1990's by the former C.E.O.'s of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Indy Mac, Countrywide, Stewart Title Insurance and the American Land Title Association... MERS, as has clearly been proven in many civil cases, does not hold any promissory notes of any kind. A party must have possession of a promissory note in order to have standing to enforce and/or otherwise collect a debt that is owed to another party. Given this clear-cut legal definition, MERS does not have legal standing to enforce or collect on the over 60 million mortgages it controls and no member of MERS has any standing in an American civil court. MERS has been taken to civil courts across the country and charged with a lack of standing in reposession issues. When the mortgage debacle initially, and inevitably, began, MERS always routinely brought actions against defaulting mortgage holders purporting to represent the owners of the defaulted mortgages but once the courts discovered that MERS was only a front organization that did not hold any deed nor was aware of who or what agencies might hold a deed, they have routinely been denied in their attempts to force foreclosure. In the past, persons alleging they were officials of MERS in foreclosure motions, purported to be the holders of the mortgage, when, in fact, they not only were not the holder of the mortgage but, under a court order, could not produce the identity of the actual holder. These so-called MERS officers have usually been just employees of entities who are servicing the loan for the actual lender. MERS, it is now widely acknowledged by the courts, has no legal right to foreclose or otherwise collect debt which are evidenced by promissory notes held by someone else...

MERS 101.

Christopher Whalen Fri 2010-09-17 19:31 EDT

The key to the future of finance is now emerging

Basel III is entirely irrelevant to the economic situation and even to the banks. Through things like minimum capital levels, the Basel II rules provided the illusion of intelligent design in the regulation of banking and finance. In fact, Basel II made the subprime crisis possible and the subsequent bailout inevitable [by enabling off-balance sheet finance and OTC derivatives]...Part of the reason for my undisguised contempt for the Basel III process comes from caution regarding the benefits of regulating markets...But a large portion of my criticism for Basel III and the entire Basel framework is even more basic, namely the notion that any form of a priori regulation, public or private, can prevent people from doing stupid things...The key premise of Basel III is that the use of minimum capital guidelines and other strictures will somehow enable regulators to prevent a crises before it occurs. The only trouble is that regulators have no objective measures for compliance with Basel II/III, much less predicting market breaks...As in past decades and crises right through to 2008, the regulators will be the last to know about a problem...

Christopher Whalen; Emergency; finance; future; Key.

Money Game Wed 2010-09-01 10:53 EDT

Why Ben Bernanke's Next Round Of Quantitative Easing Will Be Another Huge Flop

There is perhaps, no greater misunderstanding in the investment world today than the topic of quantitative easing [QE]. After all, it sounds so fancy, strange and complex. But in reality, it is quite a simple operation...The Fed simply electronically swaps an asset with the private sector. In most cases it swaps deposits with an interest bearing asset...The theory behind QE is that the Fed can reduce interest rates via asset purchases (which supposedly creates demand for debt) while also strengthening the bank balance sheet (which entices them to lend). Unfortunately, we've lived thru this scenario before and history shows us that neither is actually true. Banks are never reserve constrained and a private sector that is deeply indebted will not likely be enticed to borrow regardless of the rate of interest...The most glaring example of failed QE is in Japan in 2001. Richard Koo refers to this event as the ``greatest monetary non-event''...Since Ben Bernanke initiated his great monetarist gaffe in 2008 there has been almost no sign of a sustainable private sector recovery. Mr. Bernanke's new form of trickle down economics has surely fixed the banking sector (or at least bought some time), but the recovery ended there. ..The hyperventilating hyperinflationists and those investors calling for inevitable US default are now clinging to this QE story as their inflation or default thesis crumbles before their very eyes...With the government merely swapping assets they are not actually ``printing'' any new money. In fact, the government is now essentially stealing interest bearing assets from the private sector and replacing them with deposits...now that the banks are flush with excess reserves this policy response would in fact be deflationary - not inflationary...

Ben Bernanke's; Huge Flop; Money game; Quantitative Easing.

PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM Mon 2010-08-23 19:11 EDT

SAY IT AIN'T SO JOHN....

I am saddened to say that John Hussman is worried about inflation and default in the USA. I guess the inflationistas and defaultiastas have made a substantial mid-season pick-up. Unfortunately, however, Mr. Hussman makes all the same claims that have driven these worrywarts astray for so many years. Specifically, Mr. Hussman is now discussing the inevitable ``collapse'' of the U.S. dollar due to Quantitative Easing...There is substantial historical evidence showing that QE is nothing more than an asset swap and has little to no impact on the real economy, inflation rates or currencies. Japan is again the best historical precedent...there is a long-term threat of inflation or that we have attempted to paper over many of our mistakes, however, there is very strong evidence showing that QE will not be the cause of a collapse in the dollar...

ain't; John; PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM; says.

Sat 2010-05-22 21:13 EDT

EconPapers: An Alternative View of Finance, Saving, Deficits, and Liquidity

This paper contrasts the orthodox approach with an alternative view on finance, saving, deficits, and liquidity. The conventional view on the cause of the current global financial crisis points first to excessive United States trade deficits that are supposed to have "soaked up" global savings. Worse, this policy was ultimately unsustainable because it was inevitable that lenders would stop the flow of dollars. Problems were compounded by the Federal Reserve's pursuit of a low-interest-rate policy, which involved pumping liquidity into the markets and thereby fueling a real estate boom. Finally, with the world awash in dollars, a run on the dollar caused it to collapse. The Fed (and then the Treasury) had to come to the rescue of U.S. banks, firms, and households. When asset prices plummeted, the financial crisis spread to much of the rest of the world. According to the conventional view, China, as the residual supplier of dollars, now holds the fate of the United States, and possibly the entire world, in its hands. Thus, it's necessary for the United States to begin living within its means, by balancing its current account and (eventually) eliminating its budget deficit. I challenge every aspect of this interpretation. Our nation operates with a sovereign currency, one that is issued by a sovereign government that operates with a flexible exchange rate. As such, the government does not really borrow, nor can foreigners be the source of dollars. Rather, it is the U.S. current account deficit that supplies the net dollar saving to the rest of the world, and the federal government budget deficit that supplies the net dollar saving to the nongovernment sector. Further, saving is never a source of finance; rather, private lending creates bank deposits to finance spending that generates income. Some of this income can be saved, so the second part of the saving decision concerns the form in which savings might be held--as liquid or illiquid assets. U.S. current account deficits and federal budget deficits are sustainable, so the United States does not need to adopt austerity, nor does it need to look to the rest of the world for salvation. Rather, it needs to look to domestic fiscal stimulus strategies to resolve the crisis, and to a larger future role for government in helping to stabilize the economy. [MMT]

alternative view; Deficit; EconPapers; finance; liquidity; save.

zero hedge Sat 2010-05-22 13:41 EDT

Albert Edwards: Europe Is On The Edge Of A Deflationary Precipice That Will, Paradoxically, Usher In 20-30% Inflation

A few days ago we pointed out that the latest Japanese GDP deflator came at multi-decade lows, this despite years of printing, pumping and other -ings. Today, Albert Edwards takes the observation of rampant regional deflation and concludes precisely what we have long claimed, that once rampant deflation is finally acknowledged by central bankers everywhere, and they are now running out for time, their only natural response to preserve the system will be to do what Japan has been doing for decades (successfully, they will claim) and respond with the most extreme round of monetization ever seen, "inevitably driving us towards out ultimate destination - 1970's style 20-30% inflation."...

20 30; Albert Edwards; deflationary precipice; edge; Europe; Inflation; paradox; usher; Zero Hedge.

Culture of Life News Thu 2010-05-20 16:57 EDT

Imbalances In World Trade Cause Tectonic Shifts In Power

...Very, very soon, China will be the world's #1 oil buyer and shortly after this, the yuan will suddenly displace the dollar as the currency which determines the value of oil deals. Then, the yuan/dollar peg will vanish. And we better prepare for this day: it is INEVITABLE. We will suddenly find out where all those many trillions of US dollars are hidden in various foreign FOREX accounts and then hyperinflation will rage...for the US dollar, not the Chinese yuan...

Culture; imbalances; Life News; Power; World Trade Cause Tectonic Shifts.

naked capitalism Mon 2010-04-19 18:46 EDT

Soros, Galbraith and Stiglitz on resisting inevitability in Greece

However, for now, it is Greece which is on everyone's mind...Kevin de Bruxelles says: ...I have to give credit to Angela Merkel. She is holding a pretty strong hand and it is now clear we are down to two choices for the endgame. The bailout solution will be international, in other words not limited to the Eurozone, and the amounts donated will be proportional to the risk each country holds. Or Greece simply defaults, probably first on their Anglo-Saxon debt (in return for low interest loans from Germany and France!), and each country then just bails out their respective banking system.

Galbraith; Greece; naked capitalism; resisting inevitability; Soros; Stiglitz.

Fri 2010-03-19 20:28 EDT

The Empire Continues to Strike Back: Team Obama Propaganda Campaign Reaches Fever Pitch >> naked capitalism

I've seldom seen so much rubbish written by people who ought to know better in a single day...The campaign to defend Geithner and Emanuel, both architects of the administration's finance friendly policies has gone beyond what most people would see as spin into such an aggressive effort to manipulate popular perceptions that it is not a stretch to call it propaganda. This strategy, of relying on propaganda to mask their true intent, has become inevitable, given the strategic corner the Obama Adminstration has painted itself in. And this campaign has become increasingly desperate as the inconsistency between the Adminsitration's ``product positioning'' and observable reality become increasingly evident...

Empire Continues; naked capitalism; striking; Team Obama Propaganda Campaign Reaches Fever Pitch.

naked capitalism Fri 2010-03-19 16:02 EDT

Calibrating differences between China and Japan's bubble blow-off top

...Is China experiencing a massive bubble or not? If so, will the bubble's inevitable pop spill over into the real economy in a nasty way as it has done in the U.S. and elsewhere?...My own point of reference has been the 1920s and the 1930s more than the 1980s and 1990s. In the 1920s, Great Britain played the role now played by the United States: military power, declining economic power, anchor global currency, and largest debtor nation. The United States played the role now played by China: rising economic and military power and `alpha creditor,' a phrase our Yves Smith coined. (The key difference is that the U.S. was more advanced relative to Great Britain than China relative to the U.S.)...China is effectively doing what France did by accumulating reserves despite fears of currency depreciation. I think this reserve policy is significant because this is what is behind all of the talk of protectionism and currency pegging. The Chinese are afraid that the U.S. are actively looking to devalue the currency while the U.S. are fed up with the peg and the resultant imbalances...

Calibrating differences; China; Japan's bubble blow; naked capitalism; Top.

Mon 2010-03-08 09:41 EST

Truthdig - Calling All Rebels

There are no constraints left to halt America's slide into a totalitarian capitalism. Electoral politics are a sham. The media have been debased and defanged by corporate owners. The working class has been impoverished and is now being plunged into profound despair. The legal system has been corrupted to serve corporate interests. Popular institutions, from labor unions to political parties, have been destroyed or emasculated by corporate power. And any form of protest, no matter how tepid, is blocked by an internal security apparatus that is starting to rival that of the East German secret police. The mounting anger and hatred, coursing through the bloodstream of the body politic, make violence and counter-violence inevitable. Brace yourself. The American empire is over. And the descent is going to be horrifying...

called; rebel; Truthdig.

Thu 2010-01-07 19:18 EST

'Greater Depression' More Bullish for Gold than 1930s -- Seeking Alpha

...The current, global financial system is in the process of coming to an end -- one way or another. History teaches us it is highly unlikely that this transition can be accomplished without economic catastrophe. As the only superior currencies in existence, it is inevitable that gold and silver will benefit, as the inferior paper currencies (which we mistakenly call ``money'') suffer the same deaths that have awaited every other fiat currency, throughout history.

1930s; bullish; gold; Greater Depression; Seeking Alpha.

Taibblog Thu 2010-01-07 18:20 EST

Fannie, Freddie, and the New Red and Blue

...what we've learned in the last few years as one scandal after another spilled onto the front pages is that the bubble economies of the last two decades were not merely monstrous Ponzi schemes that destroyed trillions in wealth while making a small handful of people rich. They were also a profound expression of the fundamentally criminal nature of our political system, in which state power/largess and the private pursuit of (mostly short-term) profit were brilliantly fused in a kind of ongoing theft scheme that sought to instant-cannibalize all the wealth America had stored up during its postwar glory, in the process keeping politicians in office and bankers in beach homes while continually moving the increasingly inevitable disaster to the future.

blue; Fannie; Freddie; New red; Taibblog.

Debtor's prison Sun 2010-01-03 10:37 EST

Would a Single World Currency be GOOD for the world?

...One Single World Currency (SWC) is a topic that we have discussed many times from the very early days of this blog. For months, our discussions have focused on the causes behind the eventual collapse of the current USD-backed financial system, the apparent INEVITABILITY of this collapse and the very high LIKELIHOOD that the proposed solution to this will be a global monetary system backed by a single currency unit -- perhaps a modified version of an IMF SDR as Jesse suggests, or something new altogether. While most of our energy has been spent demonstrating the high likelihood (in our opinion, inevitability) of a SWC, we have been cowards when it comes to taking a stance on a SWC either way. Our apparent neutrality thus far has been largely motivated by a desire to remain unbiased while we explored some of the Numbers/definitions first. Having set these foundations and thought about the matter for some time, the gloves finally come off and we declare ourselves to be VEHEMENTLY OPPOSED to a SWC, both technically and in principle and spirit...we argue that the significantly increased trade granularity of the past few decades diminishes the need for a SWC, and in fact, creates ideal situations for the establishment of more localized currencies, which would be infinitely more stable than a SWC...increased trade granularity (which is a fact) increases the pheasibility and stability of local, floating currencies, to the point that they might be a preferable alternative to a SWC.

Debtor s Prison; good; Single World Currency; world.

Debtor's prison Thu 2009-12-17 10:24 EST

Did Greenspan predict the inevitable collapse of the USD?

Much of our recent discussion has focused on the seemingly inevitable collapse of the US-debt-backed global financial system. In continuation of that theme, today we will explore a specific aspect of this problem: the likelihood of a US default...

Debtor s Prison; Greenspan predictions; inevitable collapse; USD.

zero hedge Thu 2009-11-19 10:36 EST

Bob (Janjuah) Is Back... And He Is Pissed

Near term I think the battle will be between Central Bankers, who deep down, and I think privately at least, FEAR bubbles, FEAR failure and FEAR FORCED abandonment if current policies are persisted with too long and/or added to, vs Fiscal Authorities, who by definition want short-term fixes (there is after all an election cycle in the UK & in the US next yr). This is like a rumble in the jungle between the VOLCKER-ites and the GREENSPAN-ites, with GREENSPAN representing the Fiscal Authorities (he was after all surely the most politicised central banker ever). Are the Volcker-ites up to a fight? I think so. I hope so. Kevin feels and I FEAR however that they aren't/they won't. In which case MORE policy and then, very soon thereafter DISASTER, will follow. In this rumble the inevitable outcome is deflation and multi-yr austerity.

Bob; Janjuah; piss; Zero Hedge.

Fri 2009-10-23 09:42 EDT

America's soul is lost, collapse inevitable - MarketWatch

Jack Bogle published "The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism" four years ago. The battle's over. The sequel should be titled: "Capitalism Died a Lost Soul." Worse, we've lost "America's Soul." And, worldwide, the consequences will be catastrophic. That's why a man like Hong Kong contrarian economist Marc Faber warns in his Doom, Boom & Gloom Report: "The future will be a total disaster, with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it today." No, not just another meltdown, another bear-market recession like the one recently triggered by Wall Street's too-greedy-to-fail banks. Faber is warning that the entire system of capitalism will collapse. Get it? The engine driving the great "American Economic Empire" for 233 years will collapse, a total disaster, a destiny we created.

America s Soul; Collapse Inevitable; lost; MarketWatch.

Thu 2009-09-17 09:31 EDT

Why capitalism fails - The Boston Globe

Mainstream economics rediscovers Hyman Minsky; ``Instability,'' he wrote, ``is an inherent and inescapable flaw of capitalism.''...Minsky drew his own, far darker, lessons from Keynes's landmark writings, which dealt not only with the problem of unemployment, but with money and banking...Minsky argued that Keynes's collective work amounted to a powerful argument that capitalism was by its very nature unstable and prone to collapse. Far from trending toward some magical state of equilibrium, capitalism would inevitably do the opposite. It would lurch over a cliff...Minsky spent the last years of his life, in the early 1990s, warning of the dangers of securitization and other forms of financial innovation, but few economists listened. Nor did they pay attention to consumers' and companies' growing dependence on debt, and the growing use of leverage within the financial system... Minsky...argued for a ``bubble-up'' approach, sending money to the poor and unskilled first. The government - or what he liked to call ``Big Government'' - should become the ``employer of last resort,'' he said, offering a job to anyone who wanted one at a set minimum wage. It would be paid to workers who would supply child care, clean streets, and provide services that would give taxpayers a visible return on their dollars. In being available to everyone, it would be even more ambitious than the New Deal, sharply reducing the welfare rolls by guaranteeing a job for anyone who was able to work. Such a program would not only help the poor and unskilled, he believed, but would put a floor beneath everyone else's wages too, preventing salaries of more skilled workers from falling too precipitously, and sending benefits up the socioeconomic ladder.

Boston Globe; Capitalism Failed.

The IRA Analyst Sun 2009-09-13 12:14 EDT

House Testimony: The Trouble With Models Starts With Subjectivity

...we have now many examples where a model or the pretense of a model was used as a vehicle for creating risk and hiding it. More important, however, is the role of financial models for creating opportunities for deliberate acts of securities fraud..the widespread use of [VaR] statistical models for risk management suggest that financial institutions are subject to occasional "Black Swans" in the form of risk events that cannot be anticipated...We don't actually believe there is such a thing as a "Black Swan."...leaders in finance and politics simply made the mistake of, again, believing in what were in fact flawed models...Or worse, our leaders in Washington and on Wall Street decided to be short sighted and not care about the inevitable debacle...We need to simply ensure that all of the financial instruments in our marketplace have an objective basis, including a visible, cash basis market that is visible to all market participants. If investors cannot price a security without reference to subjective models, then the security should be banned from the US markets as a matter of law and regulation. To do otherwise is to adopt deception as the public policy goal of the US when it comes to financial markets regulation.

House testimony; IRA Analyst; models starting; subject; Troubles.

Asia Times Online Sun 2009-09-13 10:25 EDT

THE BEAR'S LAIR : Possible October surprises

The inflation that might be expected in the United States from unprecedented expansionary monetary policies has failed to appear, while huge budget deficits have yet to produce higher interest rates. Far from being signs of a new economic paradigm, this merely means new bubbles are forming...Commodities and gold therefore are the destination of this year's hot money and are forming the new bubble...a fair-sized bubble has developed in the T-bond market...however...a modest resurgence in US inflation or difficulty in a long dated T-bond auction could cause confidence to flee the Treasury bond market and yields to leap uncontrollably upwards...the long-term costs of excessively cheap money are beginning to be seen in the US economy itself. By allowing money to remain so cheap for so long, and by running incessant payments deficits, the United States has surrendered the advantage of its superior long-established capital base, narrowing its capital cost advantage over emerging markets and exporting that capital to countries with less profligate approaches. Huge budget deficits, themselves worsening the trade deficit, merely export yet more US capital to the surplus nations. That makes it inevitable that the years ahead, in which the United States will no longer enjoy a capital advantage over its lower-wage competitors, will see highly unpleasant declines in US living standards.

Asia Times Online; BEAR'S LAIR; Possible October surprises.

Fri 2009-07-24 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Guest Post: Is Inflation Inevitable?

Van R. Hoisington and Lacy H. Hunt ``betting on inflation as a portfolio strategy will be as bad a bet in the next decade as it has been over the disinflationary period of the past twenty years when Treasury bonds produced a higher total return than common stocks''

Guest Post; inflation inevitably; naked capitalism.

Mon 2009-04-06 00:00 EDT

Bill Moyers Journal . Transcripts | PBS

ex-banking regulator William K. Black calls fraud: ``make really bad loans, because they pay better. Then you grow extremely rapidly, in other words, you're a Ponzi-like scheme. And the third thing you do is we call it leverage. That just means borrowing a lot of money, and the combination creates a situation where you have guaranteed record profits in the early years. That makes you rich, through the bonuses that modern executive compensation has produced. It also makes it inevitable that there's going to be a disaster down the road.''

Bill Moyers Journal; PBS; Transcript.

Mon 2008-12-15 00:00 EST

London Banker: Deflation has become inevitable

``The extent to which capital has been betrayed in the past quarter century under Bretton Woods II, bank deregulation and the Basle Capital Adequacy Accords is unrivalled in the history of fiat banking.''

becomes inevitably; deflation; London Banker.

Mon 2008-12-15 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: "Deflation has become inevitable"

London Banker

becomes inevitably; deflation; naked capitalism.

Sun 2007-11-25 00:00 EST

RGE - With the Recession Becoming Inevitable the Consensus Shifts Towards the Hard Landing View. And the Rising Risk of a Systemic Financial Meltdown

by Nouriel Roubini

Consensus Shifts; Hard Landing View; Recession Becoming Inevitable; RGE; rising risks; System financial meltdown.