dimelab: tells Topic in The Credit Debacle Catalog at Feed-Adept

tells Topic in The Credit Debacle Catalog

Bernanke Tells Congress Economy (1); DownSouth tellingly quotes Hannah Arendt (1); History tells (2); Larry Summers tells (1); MMT tells (1); modern monetary theory tells (1); Pray tell (3); reasonably tells (1); state sales tax revenues tell (1); tell America (1); Tell Housing Bubble Story (1); tell right (1); tell Rogoff (1); telling governments (1); telling lies (1); Thomas Friedman accidentally tells truth (1); top government official tell (1).

naked capitalism Fri 2010-10-08 22:09 EDT

Doubts About Eurobailouts Come to the Fore

A brief recap of a couple of useful sighting on the ``rising anxieties in Europe'' front. Edward Hugh has a very thorough update (bond spread trends, underlying drivers, an astute discussion of politics) leavened by a great deal of wry humor ...Wolfgang Munchau at the Financial Times takes a hard look at a piece of the puzzle most have avoided, namely the CDO structure that the Eurozone members used for their €440 billion bailout fund. He's pushed some numbers around, and as far as he can tell, it will only be able to offer costly funding, and in much smaller amounts than advertised...

doubt; Eurobailouts Come; fore; naked capitalism.

Fri 2010-10-08 21:27 EDT

billy blog Sat 2010-09-18 10:52 EDT

There is no solvency issue for a sovereign government

Bill Mitchell

...There is no debt crisis in sovereign nations. The only public debt problems that have emerged in the current crisis have been in non-sovereign countries and even then with appropriate ``fiscal support'' those crisis were managed. I am referring to the intervention by the ECB when they decided to purchase outstanding public debt in the secondary bond markets -- which amounte to a fiscal act within a flawed monetary system. But blurring the distinction between sovereign and non-sovereign nations is the starting gate for this absurd journey in self-importance...From a Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) perspective public Debt/GDP ratios have no relevance at all. What exactly do they tell us? The implication is that the bigger the economy the larger the tax base and so the government can support more debt. But a sovereign government does not need to tax to spend and its taxation powers serve different functions...It might be that the size of the economy limits nominal government spending because it provides some indication of the real resource base but that doesn't tell us anything about the capacity of the government to service any outstanding debt. A sovereign government can always service its nominal debts. It simply credits a bank account when the interest or maturity payments are due...

Billy Blog; solvency issue; sovereign Government.

billy blog Thu 2010-08-19 16:25 EDT

There is no credit risk for a sovereign government

Bill Mitchell

...UC Berkeley economist Brad DeLong...likes to think of himself alongside Krugman as part of the ``Keynesian'' army against all the neo-liberals. Both are in fact New Keynesians. In that sense, they are not very dissimilar to Mankiw and his gang. Interestingly, they appear to be continually trying to one-up Mankiw as part of some internecine struggle within the American economics academy. But from a Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) perspective, it is hard to tell their various narratives apart...a sovereign government is never revenue constrained because it is the monopoly issuer of the currency. That is a basic starting point in exploring the differences between spending and taxation decisions of a sovereign government and the spending and income-earning decisions/possibilities of the private sector entities (households and firms). The two domains -- government and non-government -- are very different in this respect and any attempt to conflate them as if both are subject to budget constraints is wrong and starts the slippery slide down into the total mispresentation of how the macroeconomics system operates...When a government runs a surplus it is not ``saving'' anything. The surpluses go nowhere! They are just flows that are accounted for and the aggregate demand which is drained by the surpluses is lost in that period forever...DeLong is actually teaching some bastardised course in Political Science here and only allowing the conservative side of the debate to be aired...HSBC economist Steven Major ...[writes in the Financial Times (FT)]...so contrary to what is being peddled each day in the financial press that a medal for bravery should be awarded...

Billy Blog; credit Risk; sovereign Government.

Phil's Favorites - By Ilene Thu 2010-08-19 15:58 EDT

Time for a New, New Deal?

Phil of Phil's Stock World

...The Big Lie being told by the right is that we can solve our problems by cutting spending and (ROFL) lowering taxes...Of course, let's keep in mind that the $1.5Tn the government spends directly employs 2.7M people and millions more indirectly so, for every person you cut, make sure you add back $20,000 a year for unemployment benefits and administration (or are we going to throw them all on the street?)...the real glove-across-your-face insult to your intelligence comes when they try to tell you that giving tax breaks to the rich and to corporations will help...US Corporations only paid a grand total of $138Bn in taxes in 2009 (6.5% of all taxes collected)...US Corporations have done nothing but outsource America's future for decades and it is time for the bottom 99% of the income earners (those earning less than $250,000 a year) to wake up and smell the class warfare that is being waged against them. How can we even begin to entertain the idea of cutting government and cutting government spending when the sum total contribution of Big Business America represents a rounding error in our national budget?...When private business fails to expand, when the budgets cannot be balanced because 25% of the population is unable to make income tax contributions due to loss of jobs and homes -- then a wise man knows when it is time to step in and let the Government fill the void. Not with more bailouts to the rich who, like Reagan's deficit ``are big enough to care for themselves'' but with bold programs that invest in the future of this country and utilize the skills and labor of this country and make America strong and independent...

Ilene; new; new deal; Phil's Favorites; Time.

Wed 2010-08-04 20:48 EDT

Janet Tavakoli: Stranguflation: Deflation and Inflation Where it Hurts America Most

Janet Tavakoli

The U.S. is suffering from high unemployment combined with too much consumer debt in a weak economy...our bloated financial sector has been sucking the life-blood out of the U.S. economy for years, and recent decisions insure it will continue to feed off taxpayers, while the host economy struggles for life...The bailouts were a perversion of capitalism and the principles upon which The Republic was founded. This was the result of influential interested parties reaching into the U.S. Treasury with no accountability. Capitalism doesn't call for bailouts, instead investors take losses. Shareholders in failed financial institutions should have been wiped out, debt holders would have had to accept discounts combined with debt for equity swaps, and financial institutions would have then been recapitalized without taxpayers footing the bill. Instead banks lobbied for relaxed accounting and ineffective "financial reform." No one, including bank managers, can tell how much capital is truly needed, and taxpayers' ongoing heavy subsidies give these financial institutions the appearance of stability.

deflation; hurting America; Inflation; Janet Tavakoli; Stranguflation.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Tue 2010-08-03 12:11 EDT

Should China Dump Dollars for Commodities? What about the "Nuclear Option" of Dumping Treasuries? Can Global Trade Collapse?

Michael Shedlock

Every time there is a little blip by China in its purchasing or holding of US treasuries, hyperinflationists come out of the woodwork ranting about the "Nuclear Option" of China dumping treasuries en masse. Such fears are extremely overblown for several reasons...[Michael Pettis argues] the real problem is exactly the opposite of what most are ranting about: ``The problem facing the US and the world is not that China may stop purchasing US Treasury obligations. The problem is exactly the opposite. The major capital exporting countries -- China, Germany, and Japan -- are desperate to maintain or even increase their net capital exports, which are simply the flip side of their trade surpluses.'' ...If consumers decide to stop buying goods from China there is almost nothing China can do about it...Chinese exporters are already under severe price pressures...pray tell what is stopping a collapse in global trade? Nothing as far as I can see. It all depends on consumer attitudes. Certainly Bernanke and Congress will do their best efforts to get banks to lend and consumers to spend, it is by no means a certainty the Fed will succeed...consumer attitudes towards spending and debt will determine the global trade imbalance math...The result may be a collapse in global trade, not an inflationary event to say the least.

China Dumps dollar; Commodities; dumped Treasury; global trade collapsed; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; nuclear option.

naked capitalism Sat 2010-07-24 16:34 EDT

Summer Rerun: ``Unwinding the Fraud for Bubbles''

Tanta at Calculated Risk

This post first appeared on March 27, 2007. ...Telling the difference between the victims and the victimizers, the predators and the prey, and the fraudulent and the defrauded, is getting a lot harder when you have borrowers not required to make down payments able to lie about their incomes in order to buy a home the seller is overpricing in order to take an illegal kickback. The lender is getting defrauded, but the lender is the one who offered the zero-down stated-income program, delegated the drawing up of the legal documents and the final disbursement of funds to a fee-for-service settlement agent, and didn't do enough due diligence on the appraisal to see the inflation of the value. Legally, of course, there's a difference between lender as co-conspirator and lender as mark, utterly failing to exercise reasonable caution, but it's small comfort when the losses rack up. With tongue only partially in cheek, I'm about to suggest a third category of fraud: Fraud for Bubbles...My theory of the Fraud for Bubbles is, in a nutshell, that it isn't that lenders forgot that there are risks. It is that the miserable dynamic of unsound lending puffing up unsustainable real estate prices, which in turn kept supporting even more unsound lending, simply masked fraud problems sufficiently, and delayed the eventual ``feedback'' mechanisms sufficiently, that rampant fraud came to seem ``affordable.'' So many of the business practices that help fraud succeed--thinning backoffice staff, hiring untrained temps to replace retiring (and pricey) veterans, speeding up review processes, cutting back on due diligence sampling, accepting more and more copies, faxes, and phone calls instead of original ink-signed documents--threw off so much money that no one wanted to believe that the eventual cost of the fraud would eat it all up, and possibly more...

bubble; fraud; naked capitalism; summer reruns; unwinds.

New Deal 2.0 Thu 2010-07-22 15:54 EDT

The Summer(s) of Our Discontent

Marshall Auerback

Virtually every profile on Larry Summers tells us that he is one of the most brilliant economists of his generation...Only Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan played a more important role than Summers in promoting the deregulation and lax oversight that laid the foundations for the current crisis...the latest FT defense reflects Summers's fundamental lack of understanding of modern money. Contrary to his view, the late 90s surpluses was not the reason for that period's prosperity. The surpluses are what ended the prosperity. And until the public understands this, we should expect no fundamental improvement in economic policymaking from the Obama Administration...he violates one of Abba Lerner's key laws of functional finance: a government's spending and borrowing should be conducted ``with an eye only to the results of these actions on the economy, and not to any established traditional doctrine about what is sound and what is unsound.'' In other words, Lerner believed that the very idea of what good fiscal policy means boils down to what results you can get -- not some arbitrary notion of ``fiscal sustainability''...The government budget surplus meant by identity that the private sector was running a deficit. Households and firms were going ever farther into debt, and they were losing their net wealth of government bonds. Growth was a product of a private debt bubble, which in turn fuelled a stock market and real estate bubble, the collapse of which has created the foundations for today's troubles...

0; discontent; new dealing 2; s; summer.

New Economic Perspectives Mon 2010-07-19 13:51 EDT

The Myths About Government Debt and Deficit as Told By Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff

Yeva Nersisyan

...with nearly 10% of the US labor force unemployed and another 7% underemployed, the public debate is now focused on the false issue of deficits and debt. A case in point is a recent book by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, ``This Time is Different'' that has become a bestseller...The media as well as academia have fawned all over this book...The crux of the book is that each time people think that ``this time is different'', that crises cannot occur anymore or that they happen to other people in other places. True. This is exactly what Hyman Minsky was arguing more than 40 years ago. Reinhart and Rogoff don't really explain why this perception leads to crises...The book is mostly on crises driven by government debt...[however] Aggregating data over different monetary regimes and different countries cannot yield any meaningful conclusions about sovereign debt and crises. It is only useful if the goal is to merely validate one's preconceived myth about government debt being similar to private debt...As far as I can tell Rogoff and Reinhart haven't identified a single case of government default on domestic-currency denominated debt with a floating exchange rate system...Professional economists are a major impediment on the way to using our economic system for the benefit of us all. And Reinhart and Rogoff are no exception.

Carmen Reinhart; Deficit; government debt; Kenneth Rogoff; myth; New Economic Perspectives; told.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Fri 2010-07-16 18:59 EDT

Expect Second-Half Housing and Durable Goods Crash

Michael Shedlock

Those who think manufacturing is going to lead the way to a sustainable recovery need to think again. Data suggest durable goods sales are about to collapse...if consumers are not going to be buying appliances (or cars according recent surveys), and if commercial real estate is going to remain in the dumps, technology spending is likely unsustainable, and states will be laying off workers to balance budgets, pray tell where is the second half growth or jobs coming from? Here's a hint: Don't expect miracles from further stimulus either. The current Congress is not much in the mood and the next Congress is likely to be downright hostile to significantly more deficit spending. All things considered, earnings estimates and the stock market are both priced well beyond perfection, as are forward GDP estimates.

Durable Goods Crash; expectations; Housing; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Tue 2010-06-01 18:24 EDT

billy blog >> Blog Archive >> In the spirit of debate ... my reply Part 2

Bill Mitchell

Today, I offer Part 2 of my responses to the comments raised in the debate so far...Modern monetary theory does not use the term ``money'' in the same way as the mainstream because it creates instant confusion. As Scott said ``Money is always someone's liability, so better to be precise about whose liabilities we are talking about than saying money.'' That is why we emphasis fully understanding the asset-liability matches that occur in monetary systems. And that leads you to realise that transactions between government and non-government create or destroy net financial assets denominated in the currency of issue whereas transactions within the non-government sector cannot create net financial positions...So modern monetary theorists prefer to concentrate on what is going on with balance sheets after certain flows have occured rather than narrowly defining some financial assets as money and others not...There is no doubt that the non-government institutions can increase credit. Some slack analysts call this an increase in money. But the accurate statement is that, as a matter of accounting it increases the (in Scott's words) ``the quantity of financial assets and financial liabilities 1 for 1 in the non-govt sector. So, with private credit, there is BY DEFINITION no NET increase in private sector financial assets created.'' Once we understand that and note that typically the non-government sector seeks to net save in the currency of issue then modern monetary theory tells you that the public sector must run a deficit to underwrite this desired net saving or else see an output gap widen...Who is in control is an interesting question. Clearly, the government cannot directly control the money supply which renders much of the analysis in mainstream macroeconomics textbooks as being irrelevant. The Monetarists via Milton Friedman persuaded central banks to adopt monetary targetting in the 1980s and it failed a few years later -- miserably...Then you might like to consider it from the other angle -- a government which accepts responsibility for full employment can ``finance'' the saving desires of the non-government sector by increasing its deficit up to the level warranted by the spending gap (left by the full employment non-government savings)...Orthodox macroeconomic theory struggles with the idea of involuntary unemployment and typically tries to fudge the explanation by appealing to market rigidities (typically nominal wage inflexibility). However, in general, the orthodox framework cannot convincingly explain systemic constraints that comprehensively negate individual volition. The modern monetary framework clearly explicates how involuntary unemployment arises. The private sector, in aggregate, may desire to spend less of the monetary unit of account than it earns. In this case, if this gap in spending is not met by government, then unemployment will occur. Nominal (or real) wage cuts per se do not clear the labour market, unless they somehow eliminate the private sector desire to net save and increase spending...to maintain high levels of employment and given that the public generally desire to hold some reserves of fiat money, the government balance will normally have to be in deficit...modern monetary theory demonstrates that if you want the non-government sector to net save...

Billy Blog; blogs Archive; Debate; reply Part 2; Spirit.

Tue 2010-04-27 08:22 EDT

Anecdotal Economics: A Chicken in Every VAT

...The retail consumer is back, and she* is in the mood to shop, we reliably are told. The Census Bureau reported March 2010 Advance Retail and Food Service Sales improved 7.6 percent from a year ago, and for 1Q2010 are 5.5 percent above 1Q2009...So why do state sales tax revenues tell a different, disconnected story? In the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government's April 2010 State Revenue Report, which chronicles the woeful status of state tax collections, concludes that sales tax collections fell almost 9.0 percent in 2009, a statistically significant 2.8 percent more than the reported decline in retail and food service sales made up estimated by the Census Bureau...It's a significant disconnect between theory (Census Bureau) and reality (actual sales tax collections), much as the similar, significant disconnect between the Employment Situation reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (theory), which appears to be masking the true extent of unemployment in America with all those marginally attached and discouraged workers, and the meaningful decline in actual payroll tax withholdings (reality), as reported by the Treasury Department in its Daily Treasury Statements...

Anecdotal Economics; chickens; VAT.

Jesse's Café Américain Mon 2010-04-19 18:34 EDT

Goldman Sachs: A Pattern of Organized Criminal Behaviour?

Jesse

Chris Whalen provides some excellent commentary on the Goldman Sachs fraud inquiry by the SEC at the beginning of his weekly newsletter, The Institutional Risk Analyst...``hedge funds often times are merely extensions of the dealers with which they interact. It is often difficult if not impossible to tell where the dealer's interests end and those of the hedge fund begin, especially when the dealer and the fund seem to be working in concert to create securities that are being sold to third parties. This episode is a terrible mess and, to us at least, illustrates why the OTC markets for securities and derivatives need to be regulated out of existence -- or at least into compliance with norms of disclosure and fair dealing that would render such strategies impossible.''

Goldman Sachs; Jesse's Café Américain; Organized Criminal Behaviour; pattern.

naked capitalism Wed 2010-04-07 19:38 EDT

Have Bloggers ``Won''? And Is That a Bad Thing?

...[MSM difficulties] Richard Kline: ...Most of the MSM is owned by large corporations which abhor any serious questioning of the status quo. Most of the MSM decided a generation ago to pitch their product at the soft middle of the demographic curve; that's `dumb down' to those ow you who need a scorecard. Most of the MSM went to recent journalism school and bought into the idea of false `balancing' which has castrated their editorial opinion in favor of whoever is driving debate by telling the latest Big Lie. Then there is the problem of self-interested 'sources,' hardly new, and manageable when journalists were allowed to have an opinion themselves, but deleterious when they are supposed to be `neutral,' i.e. readily maniplulatible. Then there is the issue that too many journalists have decided to become propagandists for the status quo of the moment, making their reportage the worst kind of bandwagon swillage. Then too, MSM has responded, or rather _not_ responded to the emergence of new kinds of media spreading current information reportage: just when the MSM needs established `quality brand' to fall back on they find that they gutted the brand to fellate large shareholders and the interests of the same.

bad things; bloggers; naked capitalism; won.

Fri 2010-04-02 19:53 EDT

Homage To Haiti: A War Nerd Classic - By Gary Brecher - The eXiled

Haiti popped into the news again, and I decided it was time to tell the whole military history of the place. It's got to be the most amazing, bloodsoaked, heroic, messed-up story in the Western Hemisphere: slave armies defeating Napoleon's troops, huge castles built in the middle of the jungle, endless three-cornered war between whites, blacks and mulattos...Haiti's history isn't just a lot of killing, either. A lot of Haitian leaders were brilliant guys who weren't afraid of anybody -- not Napoleon, not Jesus, not nobody. These guys were self-made black Roman Emperors. They came up the hard way, out of slavery in the cane fields, and beat the European armies that tried to take the place back. All comers--French, British, Spanish -- the Haitians took them all on and put the fear into them.

exiled; Gary Brecher; Haiti; homage; War Nerd Classic.

New Deal 2.0 Tue 2010-03-09 17:23 EST

Wall Street's War Against Consumers and Labor Heats Up

Michael Hudson

...Throughout the world, scaling back the 20th century's legacy of progressive taxation and untaxing real estate and finance has led to a public debt crisis. Property income hitherto paid to governments is now paid to the banks. And although Wall Street has extracted $13 trillion in bailouts just since October 2008, the thought of raising taxes on wealth to pay just $1 trillion over an entire decade for Social Security or health insurance is deemed a crisis that would lead Wall Street to shut down the economy. It is telling governments to shift to a regressive tax system to make up the fiscal shortfall by raising taxes on labor and cutting back public spending on the economy at large. This is what is plunging economies from California to Greece and the Baltics into fiscal and financial crisis. Wall Street's solution - to balance the budget by cutting back the government's social contract and deregulating finance all the more - will shrink the economy and make the budget deficits even more severe. Financial speculators no doubt will clean up on the turmoil.

0; consumer; labor heats; new dealing 2; Wall Street's War.

Sun 2010-02-28 13:27 EST

Janet Tavakoli: Washington Abandons Greece: Beware of Geeks Bearing Grifts

Janet Tavakoli

The European Union (EU) is shocked--shocked I tell you!--that Greece used financial engineering to qualify for admission. Exactly how did they think that weaker countries managed to meet the requirements?...A few years ago, Greece engaged in derivatives transactions which essentially gave it a disguised loan, a gift from geeks. Greece may or may not have had plans to invest the money to create national wealth instead of say, blowing it all on national bling. Either way, Greece used its national credit card in a futile attempt to keep up with the EU Joneses...Today, rumors are that crony capitalists are using derivatives to profit from Greece's misery. There are allegations that investment banks and hedge funds used their knowledge of Greece's hidden debt to drive up its borrowing cost and drive down the Euro. Then these speculators reversed their positions, when they had advance information of a potential bailout for Greece. Other rumors suggest customized trades on the sovereign credit derivatives index also exploited Greece's problems. Still other rumors point to a campaign to manipulate Greek debt prices and knock down the Euro.

Beware; Geeks Bearing Grifts; Janet Tavakoli; Washington Abandons Greece.

Fri 2010-02-26 10:45 EST

Saudi Central Banker Confirms that US Dollar is on its Deathbed | The Underground Investor

In Hong Kong, Mohammed al-Jasser, the head of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority affirmed that the US dollar's role as the world's reserve currency is coming to an end when he stated, ``The dollar is still preeminent in its role as a reserve currency.'' We should recall former US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Blinder's statement, ``The last duty of a central banker is to tell the public the truth'' (PBS's Nightly Business Report, 1994) and thus be astute enough to realize that the often hollow words of Central Bankers serve as a contrary indicator of the truth...

deathbed; Dollar; Saudi Central Banker Confirms; Underground Investor.

THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST Wed 2010-02-10 11:22 EST

AN INSIDER'S VIEW OF THE REAL ESTATE TRAIN WRECK

TPC

The first time I spoke with real estate entrepreneur Andy Miller was in late 2007, when I asked him to serve on the faculty of a Casey Research Summit...what most intrigued me about Andy was that he had been almost alone among his peer group in foreseeing the coming end of the real estate bubble, and in liquidating essentially all of his considerable portfolio of projects near the top...he remains deeply concerned about the outlook for real estate...the United States home mortgage market has been nationalized without anybody noticing...If government support goes away, and it will go away, where will that leave the home market? It leaves you with a catastrophe...eventually the bond market is going to gag on the government-sponsored paper...commercial properties are not performing and that values have gone down, although I've got to tell you, the denial is still widespread, particularly in the United States and on the part of lenders sitting on and servicing all these real estate portfolios...The current volume of defaults is already alarming. And the volume of commercial real estate defaults is growing every month...When you hit that breaking point, unless there's some alternative in place, it's going to be a very hideous picture for the bond market and the banking system...second quarter 2010 is a guess...the FDIC and the Treasury Department have decided that rather than see 1,000 or 2,000 banks go under and then create another RTC to sift through all the bad assets, they'll let the banking system warehouse the bad assets. Their plan is to leave the assets in place, and then, when the market changes, let the banks deal with them. Now, that's horribly destructive...it's exactly a Japanese-style solution...The entire U.S. residential mortgage market has in effect been nationalized, but there wasn't any act of Congress, no screaming and shouting, no headlines in the Wall Street Journal or the New York Times...That's a template for what they could do with the commercial loan market.

insider's view; pragmatic capitalists; Real Estate Train Wreck.

zero hedge Tue 2010-01-19 12:18 EST

Guest Post: The Banker Bonus Diversion

I am so tired of the absolute nonsensical and foolish approach in regards to Banker Bonuses taken by both the Obama administration as well as the bankers themselves. Here's what is really going on and what should should be going on if we lived in a world that was dependent on telling the truth, prudent financial management, reduction of systemic risk, and if a cure to our banking system malady is genuinely being sought...This is a total and epic failure of the banking regulatory authorities in the U.S...The bankers should have taken every nickel of profit and allocated it to capital accounts to provision for loan losses: past, present, and future. The regulators should force every nickel on to the balance sheet irrespective of the menagerie of FASB FAS 157. The government should not be taking this needed capital from the banking system.

Banker Bonus Diversion; Guest Post; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Mon 2009-12-28 22:05 EST

``Body Count From Goldman Actions Crosses Into Criminal Territory''

Thomas Adams

Readers may have noticed Janet Tavakoli's recent article at Huffington Post on Goldman Sachs and AIG. While much of it covers territory that Yves and I already wrote about previously, Ms. Tavakoli stops short of telling the whole story...The Federal Reserve and the Treasury aided and abetted Goldman Sachs in committing financial and ethical crimes at an astounding level.

Body Count; Criminal Territory; Goldman Actions Crosses; naked capitalism.

naked capitalism Mon 2009-12-21 15:58 EST

Obama's demand that fat cats lend is no ode to Samuelson

Edward Harrison

...to-do about President Obama's fat cat remarks and his meeting with bankers exhorting them to lend...we are getting a bunch of populist rhetoric which is pure politics to induce banks to lend recklessly and save the economy when basic economics would tell you that there is a deficit of lending capacity and demand for credit. It is the absurd kabuki theater of depression economics...David Rosenberg...sees something altogether more cynical -- an orchestrated campaign to shame and bully banks into going against their fiduciary responsibility and lending irresponsibly again!...Easy money is not the solution, it is the problem. Jobs are the solution...fiscal policy is more effective than monetary policy in a depressionary environment. Quantitative easing is overrated.

fat cats lend; naked capitalism; Obama s demands; Ode; Samuelson.

Jesse's Café Américain Wed 2009-12-02 18:58 EST

The 38 Year Cycle in US Monetary History

Jesse

..the longer cycle of 38 years and some others, is that they involve what people call 'generational memory.' People as a group essentially forget the lessons of the past, and human nature being what it is, events based on bad judgement and reckless behaviour seem to recur at these intervals. If there was any 'tell' for the current crisis, it was the general overturning of the safeguards for the financial system that had been put in place in the aftermath of the financial panic of 1929 and the Great Depression that followed, culminating in the eventual overturn of Glass-Steagall and the ascendancy of extreme leverage using exotic, unregulated instruments. This is why we call this a generational change. This is no slump, no recession. And it is far from over. We are experiencing some major changes that are easily lost when one only looks at the day to day moves, listens to the description of events on the mainstream media, and of course, have a lack of memory, a knowledge of history, of things that have happened to their grandfathers and great grandfathers. The arrogant ignorance of so many still in place is a sure sign of greater chastisement to come, until the lessons of history are learned again, and the system is brought back into a sustainable balance.

38 Year Cycle; Jesse's Café Américain; monetary History.

zero hedge Thu 2009-11-19 10:42 EST

Fannie Mae Seriously Delinquent Rate Hockeysticks to 4.45% From 1.57% In Prior Year

The FNM "seriously delinquent" rate has gone parabolic, increasing by roughly 5% sequentially and just under 300% YoY. As mere text will simply not do this metric justice, please enjoy this chart of the dataset from Blytic. It tells you all you need to know about the Fed's containment of the housing problem. The August seriously delinquent single-family number comprised of a 2.87% non-credit enhanced delinquencies and a very bothersome 11.52%, consisting of credit enhanced loans. The deterioration of FNM's book however did not stop it from increasing the size of its book. In September Fannie's total book of business hit $3.242 trillion, up from $3.229 trillion in August and $3.079 trillion in the prior year.

1; 4; 45; 57; Fannie Mae Seriously Delinquent Rate Hockeysticks; prior years; Zero Hedge.

Jesse's Café Américain Tue 2009-11-03 20:12 EST

Nine More Banks Fail with CIT on Deck for a Packaged Bankruptcy While Gold Shines

Jesse

...The current state of economics is most remarkable for its arrogant complacency in the face of two failed bubbles, a near systemic failure, a pseudo-scientific perversion of mathematics exposed, and an incredible capacity for spin and self-delusion. The people wish to believe, and Wall Street and the government economists are all too willing to tell them whatever they wish to hear, for a variety of motives. And there is an army of salesmen and lobbyists and econo-whores touting this fraud around the clock...There are good reasons for this failure of American "monetary capitalism," and it has to do with an oversized financial sector and a surplus of white collar crime that both distort and drain the productive economy. The current approach is to pump money into a failed system without attempting to reform it, to fix its fundamental flaws, to make an honest accounting of the results. The result are serial bubbles and the foundation for long duration zombie economy with a grinding stagflation that may morph into a currency crisis and the fall and reissuance of the dollar, as we saw with the Russian rouble. It will stretch the political fabric of the US to the breaking point. This is how oligarchies and their empires fall.

banks failed; CIT; deck; gold shines; Jesse's Café Américain; packaged bankruptcies.

zero hedge Fri 2009-10-23 09:05 EDT

Fitch Expects CMBS Loss Severity To Rise Markedly Next Year

As anyone who has spent even a day looking at securitization tranching or CDS trading will tell you, there are two critical components to any investment that involves risky fixed income: cumulative loss probability and loss severity...artificial delays in bringing the CRE market to fair value in terms of delinquencies and REOs going to foreclosures will simply result in much lower eventual recoveries...the temporary reprieves granted to many leveraged securities will come back to bite investors when defaults eventually pick up again, however with the result being loss rates which will be much higher than default expectations.

Fitch Expects CMBS Loss Severity; Rise Markedly; years; Zero Hedge.