Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Thu 2009-10-08 15:29 EDT

Competitive Currency Debasement - A Look at Rampant Monetary Expansion In China

Michael Shedlock

The Chinese central banks' printing and respective Chinese bank lending make us look like amateurs. Chinese central bank assets and the money supply are up 25-26% annualized YTD...nearly everyone is absolutely sure the Renminbi would soar if China allowed it to float. Conceivably it could crash...Neither the G-20 nor G-7 did anything to address the massive global imbalances. Something critical is going to blow sky high, when and what remains to be seen.

China; Competitive Currency Debasement; looking; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; Rampant Monetary Expansion.

Mon 2009-10-05 11:23 EDT

New Bubble Threatens a V-Shaped Rebound

Andy Xie

...What we are seeing now in the global economy is a pure liquidity bubble. It's been manifested in several asset classes. The most prominent are commodities, stocks and government bonds. The story that supports this bubble is that fiscal stimulus would lead to quick economic recovery, and the output gap could keep inflation down. Hence, central banks can keep interest rates low for a couple more years...I think the market is being misled. The driving forces for the current bounce are inventory cycle and government stimulus. The follow-through from corporate capex and consumption are severely constrained by structural challenges. These challenges have origins in the bubble that led to a misallocation of resources. After the bubble burst, a mismatch of supply and demand limited the effectiveness of either stimulus or a bubble in creating demand...he structural challenges arise from global imbalance and industries that over-expanded due to exaggerated demand supported in the past by cheap credit and high asset prices. At the global level, the imbalance is between deficit-bound Anglo-Saxon economies (Australia, Britain and the United States) and surplus emerging economies (mainly China and oil exporters)...The old equilibrium cannot be restored, and many structural barriers stand in the way of a new equilibrium. The current recovery is based on a temporary and unstable equilibrium in which the United States slows the rise of its national savings rate by increasing the fiscal deficit, and China lowers its savings surplus by boosting government spending and inflating an assets bubble.

New Bubble Threatens; Shaped Rebound.

Fri 2009-01-16 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: Disingenuous New York Times Story on Global Imbalances

Disingenuous New York Times Story; Global Imbalances; naked capitalism.

Thu 2007-09-13 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Scary Words From Martin Wolf: End of Global Imbalances

ending; Global Imbalances; Martin Wolf; naked capitalism; Scary words.