Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Fri 2010-07-16 18:59 EDT

Expect Second-Half Housing and Durable Goods Crash

Michael Shedlock

Those who think manufacturing is going to lead the way to a sustainable recovery need to think again. Data suggest durable goods sales are about to collapse...if consumers are not going to be buying appliances (or cars according recent surveys), and if commercial real estate is going to remain in the dumps, technology spending is likely unsustainable, and states will be laying off workers to balance budgets, pray tell where is the second half growth or jobs coming from? Here's a hint: Don't expect miracles from further stimulus either. The current Congress is not much in the mood and the next Congress is likely to be downright hostile to significantly more deficit spending. All things considered, earnings estimates and the stock market are both priced well beyond perfection, as are forward GDP estimates.

Durable Goods Crash; expectations; Housing; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Jesse's Café Américain Fri 2010-01-29 16:15 EST

Why Are 86% of the NY Fed's MBS Purchases Occurring During Option Expiration Weeks?

Jesse

My friends at ContraryInvestor have published some remarkable data...This data suggests that the Fed's purchases of Market Backed Securities serves not only to artificially depress mortgage rates and the longer end of the yield curves. The purchases occur, with a remarkably high correlation of 86%, during monthly stock market options expiration weeks in the US...Talk about timing of liquidity injections to get maximum effect in the equities market...option expiration in the US stock indices occurs on the third Friday of every month. We have pointed out in the past that this monthly event is often the occasion of some not so subtle racketeering by the funds and prop trading desks.

86; Jesse's Café Américain; NY Fed's MBS Purchases Occurring; options expirations week.

zero hedge Tue 2009-10-13 20:07 EDT

Global Central Banks Join The "Short Dollar" Bandwagon

A recent piece by Barclay's Steven Englander demonstrates how everybody and the kitchen sink is soundly amused by Geithner's call for a strong dollar. "The IMF Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves data suggest that central banks are doing more than talking about reducing the concentration of USD in their reserve portfolios. They are actually acting on their statements." [dollar losing reserve currency status]

bandwagon; Global Central Banks Join; short dollar; Zero Hedge.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Mon 2009-09-21 14:57 EDT

Strategic Default Data Suggests Foreclosure Prevention Tactics Useless

Michael Shedlock

An interesting report in the Los Angeles Times shows that a person with super-prime credit scores is more likely to walk away from an underwater mortgage than a person with a subprime credit rating.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; Strategic Default Data Suggests Foreclosure Prevention Tactics Useless.