Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Fri 2010-07-16 18:59 EDT

Expect Second-Half Housing and Durable Goods Crash

Michael Shedlock

Those who think manufacturing is going to lead the way to a sustainable recovery need to think again. Data suggest durable goods sales are about to collapse...if consumers are not going to be buying appliances (or cars according recent surveys), and if commercial real estate is going to remain in the dumps, technology spending is likely unsustainable, and states will be laying off workers to balance budgets, pray tell where is the second half growth or jobs coming from? Here's a hint: Don't expect miracles from further stimulus either. The current Congress is not much in the mood and the next Congress is likely to be downright hostile to significantly more deficit spending. All things considered, earnings estimates and the stock market are both priced well beyond perfection, as are forward GDP estimates.

Durable Goods Crash; expectations; Housing; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM Tue 2010-05-18 15:17 EDT

11 REASON WHY DEFLATION REMAINS THE GREATER RISK

TPC

A nice follow-up here on our earlier piece. David Rosenberg has really nailed the macro picture in terms of inflation and deflation...why deflation remains the greater risk... * Credit is contracting. * Wage rates are stagnating. * Money supply growth is vanishing * The U.S. dollar is strong. * Commodities have peaked. * U.S. home prices are rolling over ... again. * Lumber prices tumbling (down nearly 17% from April 2010 highs) * Wal-Mart is cutting prices on 10,000 items. * Home Depot just cut prices on flowers, fertilizers, lawn equipment and outdoor furniture. * Taco Bell is offering two dollar combo meals. * The April U.S. retail sales report hinted at deflation in groceries, electronics, apparel and sporting goods.

11 reasons; deflation remains; greater risk; PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM.

THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST Sun 2009-09-20 12:29 EDT

CHINA WILL BE A BIGGER BUBBLE THAN JAPAN >> Most Recent Stories >> THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST

SocGen analysts Dylan Grice says the Chinese economy has many similarities to the Japanese economy before it imploded in the 90's...the real cause of Japan's deflation is probably more demographic than debt-related...Japan has been the first industrial economy to begin demographic contraction. Indeed, thanks to Deng Xiaoping's 1979 one child policy, China will soon face the same problem...Japan's experience also hints at what may be the future catalyst unleashing this frenzy: capital account liberalisation. Financial history is filled with financial liberalisations gone wrong and Japan's bubble can be traced directly to the removal of controls on international capital flows and banking in the early 1980s. Seeking a larger international role for the renminbi, China is now, albeit tentatively, embarking on a similar path. Full liberalisation, when it occurs, could be the starting gun for the biggest bubble the world has ever seen.

bigger bubble; China; Japan; pragmatic capitalists; recent story.

Mon 2009-01-19 00:00 EST

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Bernanke Hints Banks, Economy In Much Worse Shape Than Previously Admitted

Bernanke Hints Banks; economy; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; previously admitted; worse shape.