dimelab dimelab: shrinking the gap between talk and action.

incomplete Topic in The Credit Debacle Catalog

naked capitalism Fri 2010-07-16 16:31 EDT

Debunking Michael Lewis' Subprime Short Hagiography

Lewis' tale is neat, plausible to a mass market audience fed a steady diet of subprime markets stupidity and greed, and incomplete in critical ways that render his account fundamentally misleading...The Big Short focuses on four clusters of subprime short sellers, all early to figure out this ``greatest trade ever'' and thus supposedly deserving of star treatment...The anchor is Steve Eisman...Lewis completely ignores the most vital player, the one who was on the other side of the subprime short bets...Who really was on the other side of the shorts' trades is the important question... ...these are the international equivalent of widows and orphans...Eisman is no noble outsider. He is a willing, knowing co-conspirator. Even worse, he and the other shorts Lewis lionizes didn't simply set off the global debt conflagration, they made the severity of the crisis vastly worse. So it wasn't just that these speculators were harmful, and Lewis gave them a free pass. He failed to clue in his readers that the actions of his chosen heroes drove the demand for the worst sort of mortgages and turned what would otherwise have been a ``contained'' problem into a systemic crisis. The subprime market would have died a much earlier, much less costly death absent the actions of the men Lewis celebrates. They didn't simply keep the market going well past its sell-by date, they were the moving force behind otherwise inexplicable, superheated demand for the very worst sort of mortgages...

Debunking Michael Lewis; naked capitalism; Subprime Short Hagiography.

zero hedge Fri 2010-01-29 16:36 EST

Guest Post: Government Spending, Bank Lending And Inflation

Submitted by Kletus Klump In his latest weekly commentary, Inflation Myth and Reality, Dr. John Hussman makes the argument that changes-in federal government spending dictate the future path of inflation. As shown below, his data set covers the period from 1951 through 2008 and there appears to be a decent correlation. However, his data set is incomplete in 2 respects: 1. It does not include the Great Depression years and 2. It does not include data on bank lending. The relationship between government spending and future inflation was vastly different during the years of 1932 to 1941. The correlation between the 2 series for this time period is negative 0.25. The factor causing this is change in mortgage-loan growth...fears of government-spending-induced extended inflation in terms of time and magnitude are not a concern until the lending mechanism improves.

bank lending; government spending; Guest Post; Inflation; Zero Hedge.