Thu 2009-09-17 10:02 EDT

``No One Saw This Coming'': Understanding Financial Crisis Through Accounting Models - Munich RePEc Personal Archive

Dirk J. Bezemer

This paper presents evidence that accounting (or flow-of-fund) macroeconomic models helped anticipate the credit crisis and economic recession. Equilibrium models ubiquitous in mainstream policy and research did not. This study identifies core differences, traces their intellectual pedigrees, and includes case studies of both types of models. It so provides constructive recommendations on revising methods of financial stability assessment. Overall, the paper is a plea for research into the link between accounting concepts and practices and macro economic outcomes.

accounts model; comes; Munich RePEc Personal Archive; saw; Understanding Financial Crisis.

Credit Writedowns Mon 2009-09-14 14:43 EDT

Murder-Suicide in Chimerica

Edward Harrison

threading the events of 2008 and 2009 together makes a compelling case that the Chinese -- U.S. marriage is coming apart...GSE collapse, Geithner's charges of Chinese currency manipulation, Chairman Wen slamming the U.S. as a profligate nation, stimulus bill buy-American provision, a steady drumbeat of ditch-the-dollar talk coming out of China, Chinese central bank head Zhou's call for a new international reserve currency, Obama's chinese tire tariff was ``proverbial serving of divorce papers''. Expect prices to rise, look for Chinese retaliation on U.S. poultry and auto products...This marriage is over. The question is whether it will end gradually and peacefully in divorce or violently in murder-suicide.

Chimerica; credit writedowns; murder suicide.

Bruce Krasting Fri 2009-09-04 19:39 EDT

On Fed Intervention and the Blogs

Bruce Krasting

A week ago a great debate was stirred in the financial blog world. As is often the case Zero Hedge was in the middle of the fracas. Mr. Durden penned a piece that suggested that the Fed was manipulating the auctions in such a way as to benefit the primary dealers. It got to be a very sophisticated discussion that brought in some thinking from Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism and John Jansen at Across the Curve. The debate is over is far as I am concerned. The Treasury had another successful auction today of the 30 year. But in order to make it a success the Fed bought $27 billion of 15-30 year mortgage paper. The curve is the curve...This is timed intervention. That is a polite way to say manipulation. Federal Reserve manipulating Treasury auctions; quantitative easing.

Blog; Bruce Krasting; Fed intervention.

Bruce Krasting Thu 2009-09-03 18:21 EDT

US Treasury on Agency MBS -- Don't Buy It!

Bruce Krasting

The office of Inspector General, Department of Treasury released a report on 8/6/09 on the failure of the National Bank of Commerce. NBC went toast on 1/16/2009. The principal source of its collapse was its investments in Fannie Mae Preferred Stock. They owned $98mm of that swill. When they wrote it off they had no tier-one equity left and had to be shuttered... This report is a kick in the head for everyone involved. Fannie and Freddie look bad. Who would want to own the GSE paper with this warning from Treasury? It makes Treasury look silly. They hold the Government Pref. issued by the Agencies. If they guy down the hall is saying don't buy the debt he is certainly saying don't buy the equity. The Fed looks the worst of the lot in light of this. They are in the process of buying $1.25 Trillion of Agency MBS. I wonder what the Treasury IG would have to say about that level of concentration.

Agency MBS; Bruce Krasting; buy; Treasury.

Tue 2009-06-16 00:00 EDT

Calculated Risk: Fed Paper on Reducing Foreclosures

Calculated Risk; Fed paper; reduce foreclosures.

Tue 2009-06-16 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Guest Post: The Fake Recovery

``he underlying systemic issues in the financial sector are being papered over through various mechanisms designed to surreptitiously recapitalize banks while monetary and fiscal stimulus induces a rebound before many banks' inherent insolvency becomes a problem''

Fake Recovery; Guest Post; naked capitalism.

Thu 2009-02-26 00:00 EST

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Bleeding Times

New York Times heirs feeling paper's pain

Bleeding Times; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Tue 2009-02-24 00:00 EST

Calculated Risk: Fed Paper: Effective Practices in Crisis Resolution

Calculated Risk; crisis resolution; Effective Practices; Fed paper.

Fri 2009-01-16 00:00 EST

CHINESE CHECKMATE << Culture of Life News

``There is a game of chicken developing here: both China and Japan hold more than $1.5 trillion in US paper and whoever drops it off the cliff first, will beat the one who hesitates...Will they do it? I would think so! This will probably happen after Saudi Arabia falls to revolutionaries...It is the focal point of all of bin Ladens works and dreams. And it will happen if oil drops below $30 a barrel.'' ``Store shelfs are packed with goods. But let that not fool us! These are the detritus from deals made at least a year ago if not longer. There is nothing in the pipeline. Once the shelves are cleared of goods, there will be few replacements.'' ``The US and EU refused to police our bankers and brokers. So the Communist Chinese will do this for us. No one will bank with the West. They will bank with China if China has good controls...And our money will have Mao grinning at us. We deserve this.''

CHINESE CHECKMATE; Culture; Life News.

Fri 2008-11-07 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: AIG Arbitrages the Fed Via Its New Commercial Paper Program

AIG Arbitrages; Fed; naked capitalism; new commercial paper program.

Sat 2008-07-19 00:00 EDT

Why No Outrage? - WSJ.com

Why No Outrage? by James Grant - WSJ.com; "Wall Street's damaging recklessness has been met with near-silence, from a too-tolerant populace"; "the old populists actually won...paper money, federally insured bank deposits and a heavy governmental hand in the distribution of credit"

com; Outrage; WSJ.

Fri 2007-11-16 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: Rating Agencies Created Incentives to Issue Paper More Profitable for Them to Rate

Einhorn on credit; rating agencies compromised; securitization flawed; charging too little for risk-bearing; rating agencies have privileged access to deal data; artificial securitization bias

issues papers; naked capitalism; profits; rate; Rating Agencies Created Incentives.

Thu 2007-11-01 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Federal Home Loan Banks Standing in for Commercial Paper Buyers

(FHLB bailing out banks)

Commercial Paper Buyers; Federal Home Loan Banks Standing; naked capitalism.

Wed 2007-10-24 00:00 EDT

Cutting The Bull > Hank needs a hug

Cutting The Bull > Hank needs a hug; Fed signs off on Hank Paulson's plan to save commercial paper

Bulls; cutting; Hank Need; Hug.

Fri 2007-09-07 00:00 EDT

Econbrowser: Borrowing short and lending long

by James Hamilton; new bank-like institutions have evolved outside existing regulatory structures, issuing commercial paper and buying securitized debt

borrowers Short; Econbrowser; lend long.

Tue 2007-07-31 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Paper Points to Problems with CDO Models

naked capitalism: Darrell Duffie Paper Points to Problems with CDO Models

CDO models; naked capitalism; paper points; problem.