Fri 2010-10-08 21:57 EDT

A Mammoth One in Five Borrowers Will Default <<; Real Estate Prices & Mortgages on HousingStory.net

Michael David White

A leading mortgage analyst predicts over 11 million homeowners will default and lose their home if the government fails to take more radical intervention. Amherst Securities Group LP, one of the most respected names in mortgage research, has trumpeted an ambitious call-to-government arms in its October mortgage report. ``The death spiral of lower home prices, more borrowers underwater, higher transition rates (to default), more distressed sales and lower home prices must be arrested.''...

borrowing; default; HousingStory; mammoth; mortgage; net; real estate prices.

Fabius Maximus Wed 2010-08-25 09:31 EDT

The face of America's decline

Fabius Maximus

...Mark Hurd, until recently CEO of HP. See the face of America's economic decline...from ``The Real Reason for Ousting H.P.'s Chief``, Joe Nocera, New York Times: [according to] Charles House, a former longtime H.P. engineer: The way H.P. made its numbers...was not just cutting any old costs, but by ``chopping R.&D.,'' which had always been sacred at H.P. The research and development budget used to be 9% of revenue, Mr. House told me; now it was closer to 2%. ``In the personal computer group, it is 0.7%''...Here we see America's formula for decline... 1. Fantastic pay for leaders 2. Stagnant pay for employees 3. Cutting jobs (efficiencies, forcing harder work, moving off-shore) 4. Slash investments in the future (capex, training, R&D)...

America s decline; Fabius Maximus; Faces.

Mon 2010-08-16 12:56 EDT

Help:How to research U.S. corporations - SourceWatch

This Guide, consisting of this main article and three more in-depth sub-articles, is designed to help researchers and activists gather essential information on any type of U.S.-based company, whether small or large, privately held or publicly traded. The resources listed here are all, in one way or another, part of the public record. The first part covers leading sources of basic information on companies of all kinds. The second part focuses on information sources relating to the key relationships every company must have in order to function. The final part shows you how to gather information about a company's "social responsibility" record. Together, these sections will help you find all the basic information needed to support efforts to get companies to do the right thing. Happy hunting!...

help; research U.S. corporations; SourceWatch.

Credit Writedowns Fri 2010-07-30 15:30 EDT

Subversive Economists

The economic research staff at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has been busy. Last week we wrote about the New York Fed's Staff Report No. 458 , which discussed the shadow banking system in the United States. Today we refer to two other new reports: Staff Report No. 457 , entitled ``Resolving Troubled Systemically Important Cross-Border Financial Institutions: Is a New Corporate Organizational Form Required?'', and Staff Report No. 463 , ``The Central-Bank Balance Sheet as an Instrument of Monetary Policy.'' After reviewing them, we are left to conclude that these three papers demonstrate that the research staff at the New York Fed is perhaps the most subversive group of working economists currently on the government payroll....The combination of these three papers seems to suggest that the Federal Reserve is conducting a serious re-evaluation of its traditional role in the new financial landscape. No. 458 acknowledges that the shadow banking system is huge, but largely beyond the regulatory reach--and backstopping help--of the Fed. No. 457 suggests that the complexity of a large, modern financial institution is not only a challenge for managers, but is also a challenge for regulators. It is a cri de coeur for simplicity. And No. 463 breaks new ground by explicitly including central bank balance sheet management as a part of the monetary policy model...

credit writedowns; Subversive Economists.

Wed 2010-07-21 11:01 EDT

AlterNet: Are Our Bosses Becoming Meaner?

Sam Pizzigati

...Sreedhari Desai, Arthur Brief, and Jennifer George...have been exploring the link between executive pay and ``meanness.''...they may have shifted executive pay scholarly research in a sobering new direction, with much less attention on ``performance'' and much more on raw naked power...``exaggerated power asymmetry'' can make people with power mean to people without. Contemporary corporate workplaces, the three researchers continue, regularly display this ``exaggerated power asymmetry.'' And that asymmetry, they argue, is intensifying as pay gaps between CEOs and their workers have widened...

AlterNet; Bosses Becoming Meaner.

Wed 2010-06-09 18:39 EDT

billy blog >> Blog Archive >> The comeback of conservative ideology

Bill Mitchell

Today I have been writing about the resurgence of the conservative ideology...Ever hear the term Ruthanasia? You should have because she is still at it berating us about the wrongs of fiscal policy and the need for radical reform. Ruth Richardson was New Zealand's minister of finance from 1990-93...As an historical episode ``Ruthanasia'' followed ``Rogernomics'' as increasingly radical reform programs that were inflicted on the New Zealand population from 1984 onwards -- for the next few decades...Unemployment became a policy tool (for disciplining inflation) rather than a primary policy target. The inflation-first monetary stance (and undemocratic reforms of the central bank) combined with a harsh fiscal policy contraction to drive up unemployment and significantly reduce per capita income...Successive right-wing governments (which not only included the conservatives but also the Lange Labour Party government which started it all) used the concept of a "strategic deficit". David Stockman, the budget director under President Reagan, was the person to coin this term which is taken to mean using a budget deficit as a "political weapon". The strategy was to hand out huge tax cuts to allegedly "incentivise" (the word that was used at the time) private entrepreneurs even though there has never been any convincing research evidence to suggest that there are major losses of activity arising from taxation. The resulting deficits were then paraded as evidence of the need for dramatic public spending cut backs...The experience of New Zealand during those years of being ruthanased by the free market zealots should serve as a warning to all of us...

Billy Blog; blogs Archive; comeback; Conservative ideology.

Sat 2010-05-22 21:16 EDT

CFEPS Research - L. Randall Wray

L. Randall Wray is a Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, a Senior Research Associate at the Center for Full Employment and Price Stability [CFEPS]...A student of Hyman P. Minsky while at Washington University in St. Louis where he earned his Ph.D. in economics (1988)...Professor Wray has focused on monetary theory and policy, macroeconomics, and employment policy. He is currently writing on modern money, the monetary theory of production, social security, and rising incarceration rates (Penal Keynesianism). He is developing policies to promote true full employment, focusing on Hyman P. Minsky's "employer of last resort" proposal as a way to bring low-skilled, prime-age males back into the labor force. Wray"s research has appeared in numerous books and journals...

CFEPS Research; L. Randall Wray.

Credit Writedowns Sun 2010-05-09 09:06 EDT

Guest Post: Possible Misunderstandings about Municipalities and their Bonds

Frederick Sheehan

Problems of state and municipal finance worsen. Governors announce new spending cuts at press conferences but inspire little confidence. The fury of emergency announcements leaves the listener (as well as the governors) in a daze. Research reports offer broad explanations but have left bondholders, as well as employees and local residents, unprepared for discontinuities. In other words, there will be instances when these constituencies will find themselves marched to the slaughterhouse without warning...

bonds; credit writedowns; Guest Post; municipalities; Possible Misunderstandings.

zero hedge Mon 2010-04-05 15:14 EDT

Former Goldman Commodities Research Analyst Confirms LMBA OTC Gold Market Is "Paper Gold" Ponzi

When we put up a link to last week's CFTC hearing webcast little did we know that it would end up being the veritable (physical) gold mine (no pun intended) of information about what really transpires in the commodities market. First, we obtained direct evidence from Andrew Maguire (who may or may not have been the target of an attempt at "bodily harm" as reported yesterday) of extensive manipulation in the silver market. Today, Adrian Douglas, director of GATA, adds to the mountain of evidence that the commodities market, and the CFTC, stand behind what is potentially the biggest market manipulation scheme in the history of capital markets (we are assuming for the time being that all allegations of the Fed manipulating the broader equity and credit markets are completely baseless). Using the testimony of a clueless Jeffrey Christian, formerly a staffer at the Commodities Research Group in the Goldman Sachs Investment Research Department and now head and founder of the CPM Group, Douglas confirms that the "LBMA trades over 100 times the amount of gold it actually has to back the trades."

Goldman Commodities Research Analyst Confirms LMBA OTC Gold Market; paper gold; Ponzi; Zero Hedge.

Satyajit Das's Blog - Fear & Loathing in Financial Products Mon 2010-04-05 15:01 EDT

Mark-to-Make Believe: Living on a Prayer

Satyajit Das

...Recent research indicates that MtM accounting may, in fact, distort the price of assets...The research highlights that MtM accounting is pro-cyclical and creates volatility of asset values through complex positive and negative feedback loops. Under normal market conditions where asset markets are liquid, MtM accounting works benignly. In volatile markets, where behaviour becomes linked by a common factor such as disclosure required by MtM accounting, co-ordinated actions of market participants can easily lead to sharp movements in asset prices. The process distorts market prices and ultimately the firm's financial position and value.

fears; financial products; lively; loath; Make-Believe; marked; prayers; Satyajit Das's Blog.

Fri 2010-02-26 16:26 EST

Risk taking, regulatory capture and bailouts: The doomsday cycle | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists

Peter Boone and Simon Johnson

Over the last three decades, the US financial system has tripled in size, as measured by total credit relative to GDP (see Figure 1). Each time the system runs into problems, the Federal Reserve quickly lowers interest rates to revive it. These crises appear to be getting worse and worse -- and their impact is increasingly global. Not only are interest rates near zero around the world, but many countries are on fiscal trajectories that require major changes to avoid eventual financial collapse. What will happen when the next shock hits? We believe we may be nearing the stage where the answer will be -- just as it was in the Great Depression -- a calamitous global collapse. The root problem is that we have let a `doomsday cycle' infiltrate our economic system...

Bailout; commentary; doomsday cycle; leading economists; regulatory capture; research-based policy analysis; risk take; Vox.

THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST Wed 2010-02-10 11:22 EST

AN INSIDER'S VIEW OF THE REAL ESTATE TRAIN WRECK

TPC

The first time I spoke with real estate entrepreneur Andy Miller was in late 2007, when I asked him to serve on the faculty of a Casey Research Summit...what most intrigued me about Andy was that he had been almost alone among his peer group in foreseeing the coming end of the real estate bubble, and in liquidating essentially all of his considerable portfolio of projects near the top...he remains deeply concerned about the outlook for real estate...the United States home mortgage market has been nationalized without anybody noticing...If government support goes away, and it will go away, where will that leave the home market? It leaves you with a catastrophe...eventually the bond market is going to gag on the government-sponsored paper...commercial properties are not performing and that values have gone down, although I've got to tell you, the denial is still widespread, particularly in the United States and on the part of lenders sitting on and servicing all these real estate portfolios...The current volume of defaults is already alarming. And the volume of commercial real estate defaults is growing every month...When you hit that breaking point, unless there's some alternative in place, it's going to be a very hideous picture for the bond market and the banking system...second quarter 2010 is a guess...the FDIC and the Treasury Department have decided that rather than see 1,000 or 2,000 banks go under and then create another RTC to sift through all the bad assets, they'll let the banking system warehouse the bad assets. Their plan is to leave the assets in place, and then, when the market changes, let the banks deal with them. Now, that's horribly destructive...it's exactly a Japanese-style solution...The entire U.S. residential mortgage market has in effect been nationalized, but there wasn't any act of Congress, no screaming and shouting, no headlines in the Wall Street Journal or the New York Times...That's a template for what they could do with the commercial loan market.

insider's view; pragmatic capitalists; Real Estate Train Wreck.

Jesse's Café Américain Mon 2009-12-28 21:07 EST

Who Is Buying All These US Treasuries (And Can They Keep It Up in 2010)?

Jesse

...according to the government, US households are absolutely piling into US sovereign and corporate debt at record levels, and at record low interest rates. And almost no one but the Fed is buying Agency Debt...this is why I think we might see quite a bloodbath in the bonds in 2010, as mom and pop get skinned by the Street for weighing in so heavily on this one sided trade in US sovereign debt. The US household sector is a slow moving convoy, presenting a traditional and tempting target for the Wall Street wolf packs...Sprott Asset Management says: "Our concern now is that this is all starting to resemble one giant Ponzi scheme. We all know that the Fed has been active in the market for T-bills...under the auspices of Quantitative Easing, they bought almost 50% of the new Treasury issues in Q2 and almost 30% in Q3...We are now in a situation, however, where the Fed is printing dollars to buy Treasuries as a means of faking the Treasury's ability to attract outside capital. If our research proves anything, it's that the regular buyers of US debt are no longer buying, and it amazes us that the US can successfully issue a record number Treasuries in this environment without the slightest hiccup in the market."

2010; buy; Jesse's Café Américain; keeping; Treasury.

Fri 2009-12-04 09:35 EST

The Great Trade Collapse: Causes, Consequences and Prospects | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists

A new VoxEU.org Ebook aims to inform the world trade ministers what the economists know about the trade collapse.

caused; commentary; consequences; Great Trade Collapse; leading economists; Prospects; research-based policy analysis; Vox.

New Deal 2.0 Tue 2009-11-03 20:07 EST

Roosevelt Institute Director and Senior Fellow Rob Johnson will lead Soros' $50 Million Effort

Rob Johnson, Director of the Economic Policy Initiative of the Roosevelt Institute, has been pegged to lead financier George Soros' $50 million effort to create an ``Institute for New Economic Thinking'', which will fund research, convene symposiums, and establish a journal -- all in the name of promoting free market skeptics and creating a new economic paradigm. To this end Soros is gathering market-skeptics this week, including Roosevelt Institute Braintruster and Nobel Prize-winner Joseph Stiglitz, George Akerlof, Michael Spence, and Sir James Mirrlees to start the conversation. ``Economics has failed not only to predict and explain what happened but has also failed to protect society,'' said Johnson in an article in Newsweek. ``That's what the crisis revealed. The paradigm has failed. There is no guidance.''

0; 50; effort; lead Soros; new dealing 2; Roosevelt Institute Director; Senior Fellow Rob Johnson.

The Big Picture Fri 2009-10-23 09:03 EDT

Dick Alford on Opportunities Lost by the Fed

Richard Alford (via Chris Whalen)

Against a backdrop of continued financial fragility and extraordinary policy actions, policymakers are discussing re-balancing global growth, restoring financial stability, and the future of the Dollar as the world's reserve currency. In 2005, Edwin Truman proposed a list of policy measures that if followed would have reduced the US external imbalance and placed the reserve status of the Dollar on better footing. Truman's proposal differed from the standard litany of US fiscal discipline, Dollar adjustment, and increased demand in surplus countries. It called upon the Federal Reserve to slow the growth in US demand. More recent research, by Shin and Adrian, suggests that if the Fed had heeded Truman's prescription, then monetary policy would have also mitigated the recent turmoil in financial markets...

Big Picture; Dick Alford; Fed; opportunity lost.

Jesse's Café Américain Tue 2009-10-13 20:23 EDT

Central Banks More Aggressively Reducing US Dollar Exposure In Their Reserve Portfolios

Jesse

``Global central banks are getting more serious about diversification, whereas in the past they used to just talk about it,'' said Steven Englander, a former Federal Reserve researcher who is now the chief U.S. currency strategist at Barclays in New York. ``It looks like they are really backing away from the dollar.''

aggressively reduced; central bank; Dollar exposure; Jesse's Café Américain; reserve portfolios.

naked capitalism Tue 2009-09-22 11:32 EDT

Guest Post: If Credit is Not Created Out of Excess Reserves, What Does That Mean?

George Washington

We've all been taught that banks first build up deposits, and then extend credit and loan out their excess reserves. But critics of the current banking system claim that this is not true, and that the order is actually reversed...Steve Keen explained that 25 years of research shows that creation of debt by banks precedes creation of government money, and that debt money is created first and precedes creation of credit money...monetary reformers like Ellen Brown argue that the entire banking system is based upon a fraud. Specifically, she and other monetary reformers argue that the banks have intentionally spread the false reserves-and-credit first, loans-and-debt later story to confuse people into thinking that the banks are better capitalized than they really are and that the Federal Reserve is keeping better oversight than it really is...Monetary reformers argue that the government should take the power of money creation back from the private banks and the Federal Reserve system.

created; credit; excess reserves; Guest Post; meaning; naked capitalism.