Tue 2010-08-24 20:21 EDT

Gonzalo Lira: How Hyperinflation Will Happen

Right now, we are in the middle of deflation. The Global Depression we are experiencing has squeezed both aggregate demand levels and aggregate asset prices as never before. Since the credit crunch of September 2008, the U.S. and world economies have been slowly circling the deflationary drain...For its part, the Federal Reserve has been busy propping up all assets--including Treasuries--by way of ``quantitative easing''...But this Fed policy--call it ``money-printing'', call it ``liquidity injections'', call it ``asset price stabilization''--has been overwhelmed by the credit contraction...the next step down in this world-historical Global Depression which we are experiencing will be hyperinflation...Hyperinflation is the loss of faith in the currency. Prices rise in a hyperinflationary environment just like in an inflationary environment, but they rise not because people want more money for their labor or for commodities, but because people are trying to get out of the currency. It's not that they want more money--they want less of the currency: So they will pay anything for a good which is not the currency...Treasuries are now the New and Improved Toxic Asset...there will be a commodities burp: A slight but sudden rise in the price of a necessary commodity, such as oil...asset managers will sell Treasuries...right before a largish Treasury auction. So Bernanke and the Fed will buy Treasuries, in an effort to counteract the sell-off and maintain low yields...The Fed's buying of Treasuries will occur in such a way that it will encourage asset managers to dump even more Treasuries...It will be a flash panic...By the end of that terrible day, commodites of all stripes--precious and industrial metals, oil, foodstuffs--will shoot the moon...if it doesn't happen this fall, it'll happen next fall, without question before the end of 2011...

Gonzalo Lira; happened; Hyperinflation.

PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM Mon 2010-08-23 19:08 EDT

WHEN WILL THE BOND AUCTIONS BEGIN TO FAIL?

TPC

There's great concern over the sustainability of US deficits. Most of the fear mongering, hyperventilating, flat earth economists believe foreigners will at some point stop ``funding'' our spending. The hyperinflationist crowd likes to keep a very close eye on US government bond auctions hoping foreign demand for debt will dry up, auctions will begin to fail and interest rates (and inflationary pressures) will surge as the United States effectively defaults (which is technically impossible) and dies the death that so many of these people wish upon it. Unfortunately, 99% of the inflationistas have a very poor understanding of reserve accounting so their arguments have not only been wrong for a very long time, but they never really carried any weight to begin with (as one reader eloquently put it -- ``at some point being right has to count for something'' -- the inflationistas have been horribly wrong throughout this downturn). So what is really happening when the government auctions off bonds?...

BOND AUCTIONS BEGIN; fail; PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM.

Wed 2010-05-19 13:23 EDT

Conspiracy of Banks Rigging States Came With Crash (Update1)

...a nationwide conspiracy in which financial advisers to municipalities colluded with Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Wachovia Corp. and 11 other banks... rigged bids on auctions for so-called guaranteed investment contracts, known as GICs, according to a Justice Department list that was filed in U.S. District Court in Manhattan on March 24 and then put under seal. Those contracts hold tens of billions of taxpayer money...The workings of the conspiracy -- which stretched from California to Pennsylvania and included more than 200 deals involving about 160 state agencies, local governments and non- profits -- can be pieced together from the Justice Department's indictment of CDR, civil lawsuits by governments around the country, e-mails obtained by Bloomberg News and interviews with current and former bankers and public officials. "The whole investment process was rigged across the board," said Charlie Anderson, who retired in 2007 as head of field operations for the Internal Revenue Service's tax-exempt bond division. "It was so commonplace that people talked about it on the phones of their employers and ignored the fact that they were being recorded." Anderson said he referred scores of cases to the Justice Department when he was with the IRS. He estimates that bid rigging cost taxpayers billions of dollars...

Banks Rigging States Came; conspiracy; Crash; Update1.

zero hedge Sun 2010-05-09 09:25 EDT

Dissecting The Crash

Here are two accounts dissecting in detail the events from yesterday. One is from Dan Hinckley at Wild Analytics, the second from Dan O'Brien. ...The idea that it was a 'fat finger' error is ludicrous; unless the fat finger hit every market in the world virtually simultaneously. Liquidity simply left the world financial markets for about four minutes this afternoon. The bids just vanished...In one second more or less someone (and yes, under these circumstances, human beings take control of the machines) made the decision to pull the bids on every equity in the S&P, every financial futures contract, every FX contract in every market in the world. This kind of thing just doesn't happen in a pure auction environment; there just isn't a tight enough communication link between the parties to allow the decisions to propagate within the same second -- even with HFT algorithms. No. Some human made the decision to pull the bids; all of them, all at once. If that is not a condemnation of the concentration of financial power and the systematic risk it engenders I don't know what is...How does all of this happen? Well, you can thank the Federal Reserve... 1) The Fed prints fake money out of thin air... 2) Large banks and hedge funds borrow money from the Fed at near-ZERO interest rates... 3) These institutions buy Treasuries with a guaranteed 4% return, thus guaranteeing the banks massive and risk-free profits on the backs of the middle class (remember, you're not allowed to earn an interest rate on your savings accounts!)... 4) These institutions then swap Treasuries with the Fed for cash... 5) These same institutions (banks) then take the cash and gun the stock market higher with its FREE MONEY from the government...I meant free money from you. By the way, were you asked to vote on this? Frankly, it's better than free money - they're being PAID to do this... 6) Banks pay the very clown-posse that cause the 2008 crash (and today's) the largest bonuses...EVER...with your tax dollars.

Crash; dissecting; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Mon 2009-10-12 10:05 EDT

How Currency Devaluation Can Be A Bad Thing

Even as the dollar keeps hitting new daily lows, which continues being seen as a positive for the stock market, if not so positive for what little remains of world trade, not much has been said about the efforts by Latvia to do all it can to devalue its currency in the wake of a failed bond auction. The consequences are already metastasizing, as seen by the increasing volatility of related currencies, particularly the Swedish Krona which has been hit hard against the Euro on concerns of the country's exposure in Baltic states.

bad things; Currency Devaluation; Zero Hedge.

Asia Times Online Sun 2009-09-13 10:25 EDT

THE BEAR'S LAIR : Possible October surprises

Martin Hutchinson

The inflation that might be expected in the United States from unprecedented expansionary monetary policies has failed to appear, while huge budget deficits have yet to produce higher interest rates. Far from being signs of a new economic paradigm, this merely means new bubbles are forming...Commodities and gold therefore are the destination of this year's hot money and are forming the new bubble...a fair-sized bubble has developed in the T-bond market...however...a modest resurgence in US inflation or difficulty in a long dated T-bond auction could cause confidence to flee the Treasury bond market and yields to leap uncontrollably upwards...the long-term costs of excessively cheap money are beginning to be seen in the US economy itself. By allowing money to remain so cheap for so long, and by running incessant payments deficits, the United States has surrendered the advantage of its superior long-established capital base, narrowing its capital cost advantage over emerging markets and exporting that capital to countries with less profligate approaches. Huge budget deficits, themselves worsening the trade deficit, merely export yet more US capital to the surplus nations. That makes it inevitable that the years ahead, in which the United States will no longer enjoy a capital advantage over its lower-wage competitors, will see highly unpleasant declines in US living standards.

Asia Times Online; BEAR'S LAIR; Possible October surprises.

Bruce Krasting Fri 2009-09-04 19:39 EDT

On Fed Intervention and the Blogs

Bruce Krasting

A week ago a great debate was stirred in the financial blog world. As is often the case Zero Hedge was in the middle of the fracas. Mr. Durden penned a piece that suggested that the Fed was manipulating the auctions in such a way as to benefit the primary dealers. It got to be a very sophisticated discussion that brought in some thinking from Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism and John Jansen at Across the Curve. The debate is over is far as I am concerned. The Treasury had another successful auction today of the 30 year. But in order to make it a success the Fed bought $27 billion of 15-30 year mortgage paper. The curve is the curve...This is timed intervention. That is a polite way to say manipulation. Federal Reserve manipulating Treasury auctions; quantitative easing.

Blog; Bruce Krasting; Fed intervention.

naked capitalism Wed 2009-08-26 16:18 EDT

Guest Post: A Plunge in Foreign Net Capital Inflows Preceded the Break in US Financial Markets

Jesse

Served by Jesse of Le Café Américain The peak of foreign capital inflows into the US was clearly seen in the second quarter of 2007, just before the crisis in the US that has rocked its banking system and driven it deeply into recession. Are the two events connected? Had the US become a Ponzi scheme that began to collapse when new investment began to wane, and the growth of returns could not be maintained? Watch the dollar and the Treasury and Agency Debt auctions for any further signs of capital flight, which is when those net inflows of foreign capital turn negative. And if for some reason the unlikely happens and it gains momentum, the dollar and bonds and stocks can all go lower in unison, and there...

break; financial market; Foreign Net Capital Inflows Preceded; Guest Post; naked capitalism; plunge.

Thu 2009-07-30 00:00 EDT

Zero Hedge: Guest Post: Tax Revenues Tanking

-- ``the lions share of the planned sales of Treasuries in 2009 cannot be met by demand from the market..Auctions will fail and the Fed will step in...the 2009 budget deficit is more likely to widen to levels between $2.5 and $3 trillion rather than the CBOs $1.8 trillion forecast. We also believe that inflation could start setting in as early as Q3 of 2009 and will accelerate sharply by 2010.''

Guest Post; Tax Revenues Tanking; Zero Hedge.

Thu 2009-05-07 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Now It's Official: Securities Industry Regulator Takes Care of Self, Not Investors

non-governmental regulator Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) pre-sold auction rate securities shortly before bottom fell out; current SEC head Mary Schapiro formerly FINRA head

Investors; naked capitalism; officials; Securities Industry Regulator Takes Care; Self.

Fri 2009-04-10 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Empty Restaurants, Falling Rents, Abandoned Boats, and Collapsing Auction Sales

abandoned boats; Collapsing Auction Sales; Empty Restaurants; falling rents; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Tue 2008-09-23 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Treasury Auction Scam and How To Stop It

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; stop; Treasury Auction Scam.

Sun 2008-08-24 00:00 EDT

Here comes the downsizing of finance

by Martin Hutchinson (Prudent Bear); auction-rate securities (ARS); credit default swaps (CDS); ``CDS market creates many times as much risk as it hedges or transfers''; GSEs ``leveraged more than would have been possible without the governments quasi-guarantee, lobbied like to crazy to ensure they were not properly regulated and collapsed thankfully into the arms of the taxpayer as soon as ill winds began to blow...by their presence they turned the soundest product in financial markets, the home mortgage, into an obscene speculative casino, causing collateral damage of many times their own losses.'' ``much of the financial services innovation of the last generation was spurious and unsound, and needs to be done away with''

comes; downsizing; finance.

Sat 2008-07-19 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: 44 Cents on the Dollar for Cheyne SIV Auction

44 cents; Cheyne SIV Auction; Dollar; naked capitalism.

Wed 2008-07-09 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Investment Banks Sold Auction Rate Securities While Warning Issuers

banks touted auction rate securities to retail buyers while warning issuers market faced serious troubles

Investment Banks Sold Auction Rate Securities; naked capitalism; Warning Issuers.

Thu 2008-04-24 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Fed Auction Futility

Fed Auction Futility; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Fri 2008-04-11 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Failures of the Term Auction Facility

Fed TAF failing

failure; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; Term Auction Facility.

Thu 2007-12-13 00:00 EST

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Fed's Auction Scam

"plan does nothing to address capital impairment"

Fed's Auction Scam; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Thu 2007-12-13 00:00 EST

Minyanville -

The Fed's New Auction System, by Mr Practical (Minyanville): "if the Fed is willing to pervert its balance sheet...the dollar will fall"

Minyanville.

Thu 2007-12-13 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: Maybe the Real Reason for the Central Bank (Especially the Fed's) Actions Wednesday

Fed auction plan; coordinated central bank actions

action Wednesday; central bank; especially; Fed S; Maybe; naked capitalism; real reason.

Thu 2007-12-13 00:00 EST

Money Matters: G7 Dwarves Try To Increase Debts

by Elaine Meinel Supkis; Fed auction plan; saving system collapsed; "these tax cheats...will work with our government to continue the destruction of America"

G7 Dwarves Try; increasing debt; money matters.