zero hedge - on a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero Sat 2010-09-25 09:47 EDT

Chris Whalen On The Upcoming "Worst Economic Contraction Since WWI (Forget WWII)"

Chris Whalen at Institutional Risk Analytics

The erosion of the profitability of the U.S. banking industry over the past two years under the glorious Summers-Geithner-Bernanke rescue scheme is the proverbial fly in the ointment for both major political parties. Democrats and republicans alike are going to be fed into the meat grinder over the next several years as the banking sector deals with literally hundreds of billions of dollars in direct and indirect expenses from the deflation of the mortgage bubble. For the economy, this slow process of muddle along championed by Summers and Geithner will ensure that Barack Obama becomes the Herbert Hoover of the Democratic Party. The economic carnage that will causes these losses, as we described in a recent post in Reuters, "Double Dip or Global Deflation?," is going to represent the worst economic contraction since WWI. Forget WWII. Think "shrinkage" to use the Gilded Age description for economic deflation. And frankly nothing that either the Fed or Treasury does in the near-term can change this basic economic fact of restructuring...the economic situation at BAC and among all of the legacy zombie banks continues to worsen. No amount of bullshit from Washington changes the fundamental economic situation inside the largest U.S. lenders.

Chris Whalen; dropped; Forget WWII; long; survival rate; Timeline; upcoming; worst economic contraction; WWI; zero; Zero Hedge.

Wed 2010-07-21 10:31 EDT

Social Democracy for the 21st Century: A Post Keynesian Perspective: Galbraith versus Krugman on Deficit Spending

In a recent post, Paul Krugman has criticised James K. Galbraith's view of deficit spending. The latter is obviously influenced by Modern Monetary Theory...Krugman has misunderstood Galbraith...Galbraith understands that there are real constraints on deficit spending, not phantom ``financial'' ones. Moreover, it is perfectly clear that Galbraith is talking about deficit spending during a period of high unemployment and low capacity utilization, and perhaps even in the face of a double dip recession. In his response to Galbraith, Krugman adopts the flawed quantity theory of money and attempts to prove mathematically what is perfectly obvious: that hyperinflation can result from continuous budget deficits that are monetized by the central bank. But, since Modern Monetary Theory already acknowledges that inflation is a real constraint on deficit spending, Krugman's analysis seems rather pointless.

21st century; deficit-spending; Galbraith versus Krugman; Post Keynesian Perspective; social democracy.