zero hedge - on a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero Sat 2010-09-25 09:47 EDT

Chris Whalen On The Upcoming "Worst Economic Contraction Since WWI (Forget WWII)"

Chris Whalen at Institutional Risk Analytics

The erosion of the profitability of the U.S. banking industry over the past two years under the glorious Summers-Geithner-Bernanke rescue scheme is the proverbial fly in the ointment for both major political parties. Democrats and republicans alike are going to be fed into the meat grinder over the next several years as the banking sector deals with literally hundreds of billions of dollars in direct and indirect expenses from the deflation of the mortgage bubble. For the economy, this slow process of muddle along championed by Summers and Geithner will ensure that Barack Obama becomes the Herbert Hoover of the Democratic Party. The economic carnage that will causes these losses, as we described in a recent post in Reuters, "Double Dip or Global Deflation?," is going to represent the worst economic contraction since WWI. Forget WWII. Think "shrinkage" to use the Gilded Age description for economic deflation. And frankly nothing that either the Fed or Treasury does in the near-term can change this basic economic fact of restructuring...the economic situation at BAC and among all of the legacy zombie banks continues to worsen. No amount of bullshit from Washington changes the fundamental economic situation inside the largest U.S. lenders.

Chris Whalen; dropped; Forget WWII; long; survival rate; Timeline; upcoming; worst economic contraction; WWI; zero; Zero Hedge.

Fri 2010-09-17 19:26 EDT

Memo to Obama: time to break the refinance strike by the big banks

Christopher Whalen

...The Obama Administration and the Fed have taken the position that the crisis affecting the U.S. economy and the financial sector is slowly ending. In fact, the largest banks remain profoundly troubled by bad assets on their books as well as claims against these same banks for assets sold to investors. By allowing banks to ``muddle along'' and heal these wounds using low interest rates provided by the Fed, the Obama Administration is embracing a policy of deflation that has horrible consequences for U.S. workers and households...the Obama Administration has been providing political cover for the Fed to conduct a massive, reverse Robin Hood scheme, moving trillions of dollars in resources from savers and consumers to the big banks and their share and bond holders...the Obama Administration should use the power provided in the Dodd-Frank legislation to force an accelerated cleanup of bad assets and to mandate refinancing and principal reductions for performing loans with viable borrowers...President Obama also needs to focus on the growing competitive problem in the U.S. mortgage sector...now dominated by a cozy oligopoly of Too Big To Fail banks (TBTF)...Why is there no antitrust investigation of the top banks by the Department of Justice?...

big banks; break; memo; Obama; refinance strike; Time.

Jesse's Café Américain Mon 2010-08-16 16:09 EDT

Chris Whalen: Nothing Has Changed Because It's The Fraud and Corruption, Stupid

Jesse

...The dirty little secret of the Dodd-Frank legislation is that by failing to curtail the worst abuses of the OTC market in structured assets and derivatives, a financial ghetto that even today remains virtually unregulated, the Congress and the Fed are effectively even encouraging securities firms to act as de facto exchanges and thereby commit financial fraud. Allowing securities firms to originate complex structured securities without requiring SEC registration is a vast loophole that Senator Christopher Dodd (D-CT) and Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) deliberately left open for their campaign contributors on Wall Street. But it must be noted these same firms have a captive, client relationship with the Fed and other regulators as well, thus a love triangle may be the most apt metaphor...a recent key supervisory officer appointment by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY)...choice of Sarah Dahlgren as Head of Supervision...Ms Dahlgren has been at the center of many of the Federal Reserve's most embarrassing failures in the area of bank supervision and in particular with respect to the failure of American International Group (AIG)...

change because; Chris Whalen; corruption; fraud; Jesse's Café Américain; Stupid.

Sat 2010-08-07 20:18 EDT

Wall Street's Big Win | Rolling Stone Politics

Matt Taibbi

...Obama and the Democrats boasted that the bill is the "toughest financial reform since the ones we created in the aftermath of the Great Depression" -- a claim that would maybe be more impressive if Congress had passed any financial reforms since the Great Depression, or at least any that didn't specifically involve radically undoing the Depression-era laws...What it was, ultimately, was a cop-out, a Band-Aid on a severed artery. If it marks the end of anything at all, it represents the end of the best opportunity we had to do something real about the criminal hijacking of America's financial-services industry. During the yearlong legislative battle that forged this bill, Congress took a long, hard look at the shape of the modern American economy -- and then decided that it didn't have the stones to wipe out our country's one --dependably thriving profit center: theft...Dodd-Frank was never going to be a meaningful reform unless these two fateful Clinton-era laws -- commercial banks gambling with taxpayer money, and unregulated derivatives being traded in the dark -- were reversed...Republican and Democratic leaders were working together with industry insiders and deep-pocketed lobbyists to prevent rogue members like Merkley and Levin from effecting real change...Geithner acted almost like a liaison to the financial industry, pushing for Wall Street-friendly changes on everything...Without the Volcker rule and the --Lincoln rule, the final version of finance reform is like treating the opportunistic symptoms of AIDS without taking on the virus itself. In a sense, the failure of Congress to treat the disease is a tacit admission that it has no strategy for our economy going forward that doesn't involve continually inflating and reinflating speculative bubbles...

Rolling Stone political; Wall Street's Big Win.

naked capitalism Fri 2010-07-16 16:15 EDT

What is Simon Johnson Smoking?

Simon Johnson...incorrectly celebrates a toothless provision in the Dodd-Frank bill as being tantamount to an anti-trust act for too big to fail banks...If we believed this bill was meaningful, action be taken against these banks immediately upon signing. Odds of that happening? Zero...The problem is it not merely the size of these firms, but the fact that they control infrastructure that is deemed critical to modern commerce. I'll get into specifics in short order, but in some cases the firm owns critical plumbing outright; in other cases, it is so tightly networked to other firms that mucking with it very much runs the risk of taking down the rest of the grid...Citi runs a big corporate cash management/reporting system called GTS...And no one is going to dare tamper with JP Morgan's clearing business...The problem is that it would take a radical restructuring of the very biggest banks, the critically placed dealer firms, and the most important payment and clearing operations to make a real dent in systemic risk. The officialdom the political lacked the will to do so at the peak of the crisis, and there is no basis for fantasizing that it will suddenly develop more nerve now.

naked capitalism; Simon Johnson Smoking.

zero hedge Sun 2010-05-09 09:25 EDT

Dissecting The Crash

Here are two accounts dissecting in detail the events from yesterday. One is from Dan Hinckley at Wild Analytics, the second from Dan O'Brien. ...The idea that it was a 'fat finger' error is ludicrous; unless the fat finger hit every market in the world virtually simultaneously. Liquidity simply left the world financial markets for about four minutes this afternoon. The bids just vanished...In one second more or less someone (and yes, under these circumstances, human beings take control of the machines) made the decision to pull the bids on every equity in the S&P, every financial futures contract, every FX contract in every market in the world. This kind of thing just doesn't happen in a pure auction environment; there just isn't a tight enough communication link between the parties to allow the decisions to propagate within the same second -- even with HFT algorithms. No. Some human made the decision to pull the bids; all of them, all at once. If that is not a condemnation of the concentration of financial power and the systematic risk it engenders I don't know what is...How does all of this happen? Well, you can thank the Federal Reserve... 1) The Fed prints fake money out of thin air... 2) Large banks and hedge funds borrow money from the Fed at near-ZERO interest rates... 3) These institutions buy Treasuries with a guaranteed 4% return, thus guaranteeing the banks massive and risk-free profits on the backs of the middle class (remember, you're not allowed to earn an interest rate on your savings accounts!)... 4) These institutions then swap Treasuries with the Fed for cash... 5) These same institutions (banks) then take the cash and gun the stock market higher with its FREE MONEY from the government...I meant free money from you. By the way, were you asked to vote on this? Frankly, it's better than free money - they're being PAID to do this... 6) Banks pay the very clown-posse that cause the 2008 crash (and today's) the largest bonuses...EVER...with your tax dollars.

Crash; dissecting; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Sun 2010-05-09 09:21 EDT

Guest Post: Is Your Senator A Bankster

Dylan Ratigan

The one main benefit to the financial reform effort so far is that it helps further do away with the false paradigms of "left" or "right" and "Democrat" or "Republican" - fewer and fewer people are falling for those lies anymore...What we have now is a group of politicians with shifting alliances on a case-by-case basis to the special interests who fund them. And currently, the most damaging one to our nation is the rise of the Bankster Party. Thankfully, we can now better identify its members...there is a special place for those who have the audacity to do something as incredibly un-American as voting to provide unencumbered welfare for rich bankers and then subsequently do absolutely nothing to fix the problem. And that special place (for now) is in what we should call from this point forward the "Bankster Party". Allow me to present to you its current members...Frank R. Lautenberg...Robert Menendez...

Banksters; Guest Post; Senators; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Wed 2010-04-07 19:53 EDT

Throwing in the towel on policy makers

Edward Harrison

...Early on in this crisis, I had advocated a number of policy paths which I think would have been infinitely superior to the ones actually chosen by the Bush and Obama Administrations, especially in regards to limiting the socialization of losses. I am talking about massive fiscal stimulus, big bank pre-privatization, a move away from the asset-based economy and the accumulation of debt, and a reallocation of resources. Quite frankly, none of these suggestions have been taken on...

naked capitalism; policy makers; throws; Towel.

naked capitalism Fri 2010-03-19 16:42 EDT

Indefensible Men

From the December 2009 issue of The Baffler (no online version of this article available). For those not familiar with The Baffler, this is the revival of a magazine of business and culture edited by Thomas Frank that had previously been published from 1988 to 2007. This issue was called ``Margin Call'' and included articles by Matt Taibbi, Naomi Klein, Michael Lind. I believe readers will find this piece to be relevant. Enjoy! Since inequalities of privilege are greater than could possibly be defended rationally, the intelligence of privileged groups is usually applied to the task of inventing specious proofs for the theory that universal values spring from, and that general interests are served by, the special privileges which they hold. Reinhold Niebuhr, Moral Man and Immoral Society

Indefensible Men; naked capitalism.

zero hedge Wed 2010-01-13 12:04 EST

Ten Questions For The Bankers

A terrific list of questions that the FCIC should ask banker executives, conceived by the trio of Eliot Spitzer, William Black and Frank Portnoy...

bankers; questions; Zero Hedge.

Thu 2010-01-07 19:31 EST

Capital City | Mother Jones

Kevin Drum

A year after the biggest bailout in US history, Wall Street lobbyists don't just have influence in Washington. They own it lock, stock, and barrel...This is a story about politics. It's about how Congress and the president and the Federal Reserve were persuaded to let all this happen in the first place. In other words, it's about the finance lobby--the people who, as Sen. Dick Durbin [5] (D-Ill.) put it [6] last April, even after nearly destroying the world are "still the most powerful lobby on Capitol Hill. And they frankly own the place."...It's about the way that lobby--with the eager support of a resurgent conservative movement and a handful of powerful backers--was able to fundamentally change the way we think about the world. Call it a virus. Call it a meme. Call it the power of a big idea. Whatever you call it, for three decades they had us convinced that the success of the financial sector should be measured not by how well it provides financial services to actual consumers and corporations, but by how effectively financial firms make money for themselves. It sounds crazy when you put it that way, but stripped to its bones, that's what they pulled off.

capital city; Mother Jones.

Credit Writedowns Tue 2010-01-05 19:08 EST

Volcker: `I wasn't persuasive enough' for Obama to heed my economic advice

I don't know quite what to make of the Paul Volcker interview published late last week in Business Week. In case you missed it, Business week published a frank interview of former Federal Reserve Board chairman Paul Volcker with media giant Charlie Rose the day before Christmas Eve...``The American political process is about as broken as the financial system. Therefore, one has to be a bit skeptical. Just to give you one little example, one unrelated to the financial crisis. Here we are on Dec. 29, almost a year after the Inauguration, and there is no Under Secretary of the Treasury. That should be an important position. How can we run a government in the middle of a financial crisis without doing the ordinary, garden-variety administrative work of filling the relevant agencies? The Treasury is an outstanding example of a broken system, but it's not the only one.''

credit writedowns; economically advice; heeded; Obama; persuasion; Volcker.

The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com Wed 2009-11-25 10:44 EST

Fed Beaten: Bill To Audit Federal Reserve Passes Key Hurdle

The Huffington Post News Editors

In an unprecedented defeat for the Federal Reserve, an amendment to audit the multi-trillion dollar institution was approved by the House Finance Committee with an overwhelming and bipartisan 43-26 vote on Thursday afternoon despite harried last-minute lobbying from top Fed officials and the surprise opposition of Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.), who had previously been a supporter. The measure, cosponsored by Reps. Ron Paul (R-Texas) and Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), authorizes the Government Accountability Office to conduct a wide-ranging audit of the Fed's opaque deals with foreign central banks and major U.S. financial institutions. The Fed has never had a real audit in its history and little is known of what it does with the trillions of dollars at its disposal.

Audit Federal Reserve Passes Key Hurdle; billed; com; Fed Beaten; full Feeds; HuffingtonPost.

Harper's Magazine Thu 2009-11-19 10:20 EST

An Object Lesson in Governmental Failure: Derivatives reform

KEN SILVERSTEIN

If you want to understand why Congress seems completely incapable of checking the power of Wall Street, look back to a hearing on the Hill last October 7, and the subsequent events surrounding it...he House Financial Services Committee hosted a panel on reform of the market for derivatives,...the committee, headed by Congressman Barney Frank (D-Wall Street), invited a panel of eight guests who were distinguished by their uniformly pro-industry positions...In response to complaints from Americans for Financial Reform, which represents hundreds of consumer groups and labor unions, the committee issued an invitation--the night before the hearing was held -- to Rob Johnson of the Roosevelt Institute. For the committee, the last minute inclusion of Johnson -- a former managing director at Bankers Trust Company and former economist at the Senate Banking Committee and Senate Budget Committee -- apparently constituted sufficient balance...About five days later Johnson submitted his full testimony to the committee, to be included on its website along with the statements of the other eight panelists...the committee's general counsel would not allow posting of the testimony because Johnson had not submitted it during the hearing. (Of course, since Johnson had been invited at the last minute it was impossible for him to fulfill this pointless requirement.)

Derivatives reform; Governmental Failure; Harper's Magazine; object lessons.

Fri 2009-10-23 08:55 EDT

Is Goldman Sachs Evil? Or Just Too Good? -- New York Magazine (2009-07-26)

Joe Hagan

(Goldman Sachs, Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, Rolling Stone, John Rogers, John Whitehead, AIG, Neil Barofsky, Troubled Asset Relief Program, Morgan Stanley, Hank Paulson, Lloyd Blankfein, John Thain, Lehman Brothers, Standard & Poor's, Tim Geithner, JPMorgan Chase, Jon Winkelried, David Solomon, Richard Friedman, Jamie Dimon, Robert Rubin, Dan Jester, Eric Dinallo, Hank Greenberg, Edward C. Forst, Neel Kashkari, Edward Liddy, Stephen Friedman, Sidney Weinberg, TARP, Joseph --Stiglitz, Lucas van Praag, Frank Suozzo, Mike Morgan, Matt Taibbi, Edith Cooper, Byron Trott, Warren Buffett, Barney Frank, John Thornton, Michael Lewis, Larry Summers, Barack Obama, Rahm Emanuel, Robert Hormats, Eliot Spitzer) Inside Goldman Sachs, America's most successful, cynical, envied, despised, and (in its view, anyway) misunderstood engine of capitalism. [2009-07-26]

2009-07-26; Goldman Sachs evil; good; just; New York magazine.

Calculated Risk Mon 2009-10-12 09:56 EDT

More on Problems at the FHA and Quote of the Day

CalculatedRisk

``I don't think it's a bad thing that the bad loans occurred. It was an effort to keep prices from falling too fast. That's a policy.'' Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee on recent FHA lending.The quote is from David Streitfeld and Louise Story's article in the NY Times: U.S. Mortgage Backer May Need Bailout, Experts Say

Calculated Risk; day; FHA; problem; quote.

Calculated Risk Sun 2009-10-11 15:57 EDT

A Policy: Supporting House Prices

CalculatedRisk

As Representative Frank notes, the policy of the U.S. appears to be to support asset prices at almost any cost...

Calculated Risk; policies; supporting house prices.

zero hedge Tue 2009-09-22 16:22 EDT

Top Goldman Lobbyist Barred From Communicating With House's Financial Services Committee

In a rare example of testicular fortitude, Barney Frank has "banished" Goldman's Michael Pease from communicating with the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee. According to Reuters, the Goldmanite, and former committee staffer, has been "asked" not to interfere with the Congressional panel for a period of 12 months. According to Barney Frank aide Steven Adamske: "Mr. Paese left our offices in September 2008, and was not allowed to communicate with any committee members or staff for a period of one year due to normal ethics restrictions that apply to all House and Senate employees. Out of an abundance of caution due to the nature of financial regulation reform, the chairman has extended Mr. Paese's recusal for another year." Pease "was the committee's deputy staff director before he quit to work for the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association as a lobbyist. Goldman hired him in April.

communications; House's Financial Services Committee; Top Goldman Lobbyist Barred; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Tue 2009-09-01 15:39 EDT

Head Of China Sovereign Wealth Fund Openly Admits Asset Bubble Addressed By Creation Of More Bubbles

In a phenomenal demonstration of frankness and true economic assessment, the head of the China Investment Council, Lou Jiwei, who controls China's $298 billion sovereign wealth fund, admits the ponzi nature of today's markets: Both China and America are addressing bubbles by creating more bubbles and we're just taking advantage of that. So we can't lose. $20 trillion+ global equity market Ponzi scheme.

bubble; China Sovereign Wealth Fund Openly Admits Asset Bubble Addressed; creation; Head; Zero Hedge.

Thu 2007-11-01 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Inflation: What the heck is it?

2006-02-02; Frank Shostak; inflation best defined as net expansion of money supply and credit

heck; Inflation; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.