naked capitalism Thu 2010-04-01 19:57 EDT

Top ten reasons you know China has a financial bubble on its hands

Edward Harrison

Edward Chancellor, author of the seminal book on financial speculation and manias ``Devil Take The Hindmost,'' is now turning his eyes to China. He sees a number of red flags which point to excess in China...The trouble is that China today exhibits many of the characteristics of great speculative manias. The aim of this paper is to describe the common features of some of the great historical bubbles and outline China's current vulnerability...Is China in a bubble blow-off top like Japan post-Plaza accord? I say yes. I believe anyone who thinks this will not end badly is in for a rude awakening.

Financial bubble; handing; know China; naked capitalism; reasons; Top.

naked capitalism Fri 2010-03-19 16:02 EDT

Calibrating differences between China and Japan's bubble blow-off top

Edward Harrison

...Is China experiencing a massive bubble or not? If so, will the bubble's inevitable pop spill over into the real economy in a nasty way as it has done in the U.S. and elsewhere?...My own point of reference has been the 1920s and the 1930s more than the 1980s and 1990s. In the 1920s, Great Britain played the role now played by the United States: military power, declining economic power, anchor global currency, and largest debtor nation. The United States played the role now played by China: rising economic and military power and `alpha creditor,' a phrase our Yves Smith coined. (The key difference is that the U.S. was more advanced relative to Great Britain than China relative to the U.S.)...China is effectively doing what France did by accumulating reserves despite fears of currency depreciation. I think this reserve policy is significant because this is what is behind all of the talk of protectionism and currency pegging. The Chinese are afraid that the U.S. are actively looking to devalue the currency while the U.S. are fed up with the peg and the resultant imbalances...

Calibrating differences; China; Japan's bubble blow; naked capitalism; Top.

Fri 2008-12-05 00:00 EST

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: China Prepares for Worst Case As US Prepares For More Central Planning

``the cure is to embrace deflation and stop fractional reserve lending and the serially bubble blowing activities of the Fed''

Central Planning; China prepares; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; prepared; worst case.