Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-12-17 10:11 EST

Is the Price of World Silver the Result of Legitimate Market Discovery?

Jesse

Ted Butler: ...the concentrated short position in COMEX silver futures is so extreme, that it is hard to imagine how it can be resolved in an orderly manner. The most recent data from the CFTC indicate that one US bank, JPMorgan, now holds 200 million ounces net short in COMEX silver futures, fully 40% of the entire net short position on the COMEX (minus spreads). As I have previously written, JPMorgan accounted for 100% of all new short selling in COMEX silver futures for September and October, some 50 million additional ounces...So extreme is JPMorgan's silver short position that it cannot be closed out in an orderly fashion...As extreme as JPMorgan's position is, there is a total true net short position of 500 million ounces (100,000 contracts) in COMEX silver futures. Try to put that 500 million ounce short position in perspective. It equals 75% of world annual mine production, much higher than seen in any other commodity.

Jesse's Café Américain; Legitimate Market Discovery; Price; resulting; World Silver.

Bruce Krasting Thu 2009-11-19 10:52 EST

FHFA's DeMarco Speaks - Ouch!

Bruce Krasting

FHFA's Acting Director Edward DeMarco provided written testimony to the Senate today. I would give his presentation a B+. There is little room for optimism in this story. Mr. DeMarco did not gloss that fact over. A few snips from that speech: -From July 2007 through the first half of 2009--combined losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac totaled $165 billion. In the first half of 2009, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac together reported net losses of $47 billion. -Since the establishment of the conservatorships, the combined losses at the two Enterprises depleted all their capital and required them to draw $96 billion. The combined support from the federal government exceeds $1 trillion. -The short-term outlook for the Enterprises remains troubled and likely will require additional draws...

Bruce Krasting; FHFA's DeMarco Speaks; Ouch.

zero hedge Thu 2009-11-19 10:42 EST

Fannie Mae Seriously Delinquent Rate Hockeysticks to 4.45% From 1.57% In Prior Year

The FNM "seriously delinquent" rate has gone parabolic, increasing by roughly 5% sequentially and just under 300% YoY. As mere text will simply not do this metric justice, please enjoy this chart of the dataset from Blytic. It tells you all you need to know about the Fed's containment of the housing problem. The August seriously delinquent single-family number comprised of a 2.87% non-credit enhanced delinquencies and a very bothersome 11.52%, consisting of credit enhanced loans. The deterioration of FNM's book however did not stop it from increasing the size of its book. In September Fannie's total book of business hit $3.242 trillion, up from $3.229 trillion in August and $3.079 trillion in the prior year.

1; 4; 45; 57; Fannie Mae Seriously Delinquent Rate Hockeysticks; prior years; Zero Hedge.

Fri 2009-10-23 09:42 EDT

America's soul is lost, collapse inevitable - MarketWatch

Paul B. Farrell

Jack Bogle published "The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism" four years ago. The battle's over. The sequel should be titled: "Capitalism Died a Lost Soul." Worse, we've lost "America's Soul." And, worldwide, the consequences will be catastrophic. That's why a man like Hong Kong contrarian economist Marc Faber warns in his Doom, Boom & Gloom Report: "The future will be a total disaster, with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it today." No, not just another meltdown, another bear-market recession like the one recently triggered by Wall Street's too-greedy-to-fail banks. Faber is warning that the entire system of capitalism will collapse. Get it? The engine driving the great "American Economic Empire" for 233 years will collapse, a total disaster, a destiny we created.

America s Soul; Collapse Inevitable; lost; MarketWatch.

Bruce Krasting Sat 2009-10-10 12:57 EDT

FHFA's DeMarco Speaks

Bruce Krasting

FHFA's Acting Director Edward DeMarco provided written testimony to the Senate today...From July 2007 through the first half of 2009--combined losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac totaled $165 billion. In the first half of 2009, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac together reported net losses of $47 billion. Since the establishment of the conservatorships, the combined losses at the two Enterprises depleted all their capital and required them to draw $96 billion. The combined support from the federal government exceeds $1 trillion. The short-term outlook for the Enterprises remains troubled and likely will require additional draws...

Bruce Krasting; FHFA's DeMarco Speaks.

zero hedge Mon 2009-09-21 14:35 EDT

Atlanta Fed On Federal Reserve Monetization Activities; $1.1 Trillion In USTs And Agency MBS Purchased To Date

The Fed now has $15 billion in purchasing power left under the Treasury component of QE. Of the $1,250 billion in MBS projected to be bought by the end of the year, the Fed was already purchased $840 billion, leaving $410 billion in budgeted purchases over the next three and a half months: about $125 billion per month. On September 15, the Fed purchased $2.05 billion in Treasuries, roughly in the 10-17 year sector; on September 16, it purchased $1.799 billion in the one-to-two year sector. It has purchased a total of $285.2 billion of Treasury securities through September 16.The Fed plans to purchase $300 billion by the end of October, or about six weeks from now, which makes for a pace of about $2.5 billion in purchases per week.

1; 1 Trillion; Agency MBS Purchases; Atlanta Fed; date; Federal Reserve Monetization Activities; ust; Zero Hedge.

Bruce Krasting Tue 2009-09-08 12:06 EDT

Wallboard - China Inc.+$25mm, USA $-3.2b

Bruce Krasting

The Wall Street Journal had an interesting piece Tuesday on defective wallboard that had been imported from China . The LA Times had a more detailed discussion of this problem on July 4th. This article makes a case that the wall material may contain radioactive material. It provides the names of some of the companies involved. The problematic wallboard was sent to the US in 2006. These imports totaled $25 million. The WSJ estimates that the cost of repairing a home that has this material is $100,000. The LAT piece puts the number of homes involved at 32,000. Put those two numbers together. There are $3.2billion of losses relating to $25mm of wallboard.

25MM; 2B; 3; Bruce Krasting; China Inc; USA; wallboard.

Bruce Krasting Fri 2009-09-04 19:21 EDT

Fannie's Trading Derivatives Hard, and Losing

Bruce Krasting

It has been my contention that the Agencies were a factor in the bond market volatility in the past three months. Fannies 10Q has the following information regarding their derivative activity in the first six months of the year. As of June 30 FNM had a balance sheet of $900 billion. Against that position they bought and sold over the counter derivative contracts totaling $1.2 Trillion. On average $100 billion per day. There can be little doubt but that FNM has been adding to the volatility in the credit market. As luck would have it, the end result of all of this was a loss of $2.2billion.

Bruce Krasting; Fannie's Trading Derivatives Hard; Lose.

Bruce Krasting Fri 2009-09-04 18:31 EDT

Fannie Has .9 Trillion in Troubled Loans - 8K

Bruce Krasting

Fannie Mae's 8k has an interesting slide. It is a look at their questionable assets. The slide is not easy to read. It can be found in the 2009 Second Quarter Supplement, on page 5. The report describes FNM's exposure to problematic classes of mortgages on their book. That total comes to a whopping .9 Trillion. The total book of business is $2.7 Trillion, fully 32% of their book is troubled.

8k; 9 trillion; Bruce Krasting; Fannie; troubled loans.

Calculated Risk Thu 2009-09-03 11:43 EDT

Houses and Autos: The Cost of a Tax Credit per Additional Units Sold

CalculatedRisk

To calculate the cost of a tax credit per additional unit sold, we need to sum up the total cost of the credit - as an example $2.877 billion for Cash-for-Clunkers according to the Dept. of Transportation - and then divide by the estimated increase in sales because of the credit. Remember some cars or houses would have been sold anyway (even though they still receive the tax credit), but it is the additional sales that matter. That was the purpose of the tax credit! (update: Shnaps notes that the auto credit had an additional benefit of better mileage). Highly inefficient subsidies for home and auto purchases.

Additional Units Sold; auto; Calculated Risk; cost; Housing; Tax credit.

Fri 2009-07-24 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Guest Post: Is Inflation Inevitable?

Van R. Hoisington and Lacy H. Hunt ``betting on inflation as a portfolio strategy will be as bad a bet in the next decade as it has been over the disinflationary period of the past twenty years when Treasury bonds produced a higher total return than common stocks''

Guest Post; inflation inevitably; naked capitalism.

Thu 2009-01-15 00:00 EST

Calculated Risk: The Ten Trillion Dollar Man Update

total US public debt outstanding exceeds 10 trillion; bush structural budget deficit

Calculated Risk; Trillion Dollar Man Update.

Mon 2008-12-15 00:00 EST

Michael Hudson and Jeffrey Sommers: The End of the Washington Consensus

Counterpunch; ``Total private-sector markets (in practice, markets run by the banks and money managers) have shown themselves to be just as destructive, wasteful and corrupt and, indeed, centrally planned as those of totally statist governments from Stalin's Russia to Hitler's Germany.''

ending; Jeffrey Sommers; Michael Hudson; Washington Consensus.

Wed 2008-06-11 00:00 EDT

[ The Financial Ninja ]: Really Scary Fed Charts: JUNE, 'Just' 1% of GDP Now

total borrowings of depository institutions from Federal reserve at 1% of GDP

1; Financial Ninja; GDP; June; just; Really Scary Fed Charts.

Fri 2008-05-16 00:00 EDT

Winter (Economic & Market) Watch >> Paint Lipstick on this Pig

Winter (Economic & Market) Watch >> Paint Lipstick on this Pig; Freddie Mac moves 120 billion to level 3 assets; moved entire ABS portfolio into level 3; level 3 assets now 23% of total assets

economic; Market; Paint Lipstick; Pigs; watch; winter.

Fri 2008-05-16 00:00 EDT

Calculated Risk: On Freddie Mac Accounting Change

Freddie Mac increases Level 3 assets to 23% of total assets; Freddie Mac reports negative net assets

Calculated Risk; Freddie Mac Accounting Change.