PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM Mon 2010-09-20 19:18 EDT
In this morning's report David Rosenberg cited the non-existent inflation trend in recent years. Rosenberg is of course very negative about the economy, but does provide some excellent thoughts on how to play the current...deflationary environment...
PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM Thu 2010-09-16 16:15 EDT
Here's a contrarian view for you. Credit Suisse says the fears about housing are well overdone. In their analysis they cite 6 different bullish factors that should help to bolster house prices in the USA...The government now owns or guarantees about 70% of US mortgage debt...Valuation is extremely cheap on all measures...Delinquency ratios, charge-off and foreclosure rates seem to have peaked...Housing starts are about 1m below trend demand of housing units -- based on household formation and replacement demand... * Distressed sales (short-sales, foreclosures and REO sales) are less than a third of the total, after peaking at almost half in 2009...Housing as a proportion of GDP is now just 2.2%, compared with a long-run average of 4.5%...
6 BULLISH FACTS; Credit Suisse; Housing; PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM.
PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM Mon 2010-08-23 19:11 EDT
I am saddened to say that John Hussman is worried about inflation and default in the USA. I guess the inflationistas and defaultiastas have made a substantial mid-season pick-up. Unfortunately, however, Mr. Hussman makes all the same claims that have driven these worrywarts astray for so many years. Specifically, Mr. Hussman is now discussing the inevitable ``collapse'' of the U.S. dollar due to Quantitative Easing...There is substantial historical evidence showing that QE is nothing more than an asset swap and has little to no impact on the real economy, inflation rates or currencies. Japan is again the best historical precedent...there is a long-term threat of inflation or that we have attempted to paper over many of our mistakes, however, there is very strong evidence showing that QE will not be the cause of a collapse in the dollar...
PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM Mon 2010-08-23 19:08 EDT
There's great concern over the sustainability of US deficits. Most of the fear mongering, hyperventilating, flat earth economists believe foreigners will at some point stop ``funding'' our spending. The hyperinflationist crowd likes to keep a very close eye on US government bond auctions hoping foreign demand for debt will dry up, auctions will begin to fail and interest rates (and inflationary pressures) will surge as the United States effectively defaults (which is technically impossible) and dies the death that so many of these people wish upon it. Unfortunately, 99% of the inflationistas have a very poor understanding of reserve accounting so their arguments have not only been wrong for a very long time, but they never really carried any weight to begin with (as one reader eloquently put it -- ``at some point being right has to count for something'' -- the inflationistas have been horribly wrong throughout this downturn). So what is really happening when the government auctions off bonds?...
PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM Thu 2010-08-05 19:52 EDT
Brett Arends had an excellent piece on MarketWatch yesterday regarding the true state of US corporations...the total debts of these companies has...skyrocketed...corporations are even worse off today (in terms of debt levels) than they were when the crisis began...It's not just the consumer and banking sectors that remain overly indebted and poorly positioned in the long-run. The period of de-leveraging (balance sheet recession) is likely far from over and the continuation of the private sector weakness likely to continue until the problem of debt is accepted and dealt with...Private sector demand for debt is likely to remain very tepid and this will exacerbate the risk of deflation and economic weakness.
PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM Mon 2010-07-19 13:35 EDT
While property prices have fallen 30% over the last two years mortgage debt remains larlgely unchanged from peak levels. Housing Story asks if the de-leveraging is a myth? ...The current evidence points to continued weakness in housing prices going forward...
PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM Tue 2010-05-18 15:17 EDT
A nice follow-up here on our earlier piece. David Rosenberg has really nailed the macro picture in terms of inflation and deflation...why deflation remains the greater risk... * Credit is contracting. * Wage rates are stagnating. * Money supply growth is vanishing * The U.S. dollar is strong. * Commodities have peaked. * U.S. home prices are rolling over ... again. * Lumber prices tumbling (down nearly 17% from April 2010 highs) * Wal-Mart is cutting prices on 10,000 items. * Home Depot just cut prices on flowers, fertilizers, lawn equipment and outdoor furniture. * Taco Bell is offering two dollar combo meals. * The April U.S. retail sales report hinted at deflation in groceries, electronics, apparel and sporting goods.
11 reasons; deflation remains; greater risk; PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM.
PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM Tue 2010-05-18 15:15 EDT
...the performance of the dollar is the surest evidence of the kind of environment we're currently in. The surging dollar is a clear sign that inflation is not the concern of global investors. This is almost a sure sign that deflation is once again gripping the global economy and should be setting off red flags for equity investors around the world. The recent action in the dollar is eerily reminiscent of the peak worries in the credit crisis when deflation appeared to be taking a death grip on the global economy and demand for dollars was extremely high...As for the gold rally, I think it's clear gold is rallying in anticipation of its potential to become a future reserve currency. The potential demise of the Euro has become a rally cry for inflationistas who don't understand that the Euro is in fact another single currency system (like the gold standard) which is destined to fail. In the near-term, the rise in gold is likely justified as fear mongering and misguided governments increase demand for the yellow metal. Ultimately, I believe investors will realize that there is little to no inflation in the global economy and that the non-convertible floating exchange systems (such as the USD and JPY) are fundamentally different from the flawed currency system in place in Europe. Debt deflation continues to plague the global economy. Thus far, policymakers have been unable to fend off this wretched beast and I attribute this largely to the widespread misconceptions regarding our monetary systems. This extends to the very highest levels of government...Positioning yourself for hyperinflation and a U.S. dollar collapse has been a recipe for disaster and will continue to be a recipe for disaster as debt deflation remains the single greatest risk to the global economy.
THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST Wed 2010-04-07 18:22 EDT
``Panics do not destroy capital -- they merely reveal the extent to which it has previously been destroyed by its betrayal in hopelessly unproductive works'' -- John Mills ...We should draw a distinct line in the sand between banks and diverse risk taking firms. There are always going to be Enron's in the economy, but why should we allow our entire banking sector to mirror Enron? Taking a 30,000 foot risk management view I say something must be done to ensure these banks can never do this again. Turn banks into true banks. Hedging and exotic business models are fine. Just don't commingle them under the same umbrella as a deposit taking ``bank''. With that, a few ideas come to mind: * Our banking system should be aligned with the goals of the nation to help ``grease'' the wheels of the economic growth engine of the United States. Banks should be more like utilities and less like hedge funds. Otherwise, banking becomes counter-productive and potentially destructive. * Banks should not be allowed to exact onerous fees on the public or enact a business model which is inherently dependent on driving their customers deeper and deeper into debt. This undermines the entire goal of productive economic growth. * ``Banks'' should be true lending institutions. Non-traditional banking operations and products such as CDS, ``off balance sheet'' finance, derivatives as collateral and such would be deemed illegal unless performed only by non banking/lending institutions (such as hedge funds) so as to insulate the public and true lending institutions from the risk taking, ``hedging'', and ``financial innovation'' of firms such as Lehman Brothers.
THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST Tue 2010-03-09 18:04 EST
This week's Guru Outlook brings you Paolo Pellegrini. Although he is not the most well known of investment gurus Pellegrini has built quite a name for himself in recent years...He says we are essentially papering over the problems with more debt. We are simply adding more debt to a debt-laden world while China adds more exports to a saturated market. He says the problems in Europe are a harbinger of these continuing issues. Thus far the massive stimulus has been successful in jumpstarting the global economy, but is nothing more than a temporary respite from the longer-term structural problems that remain...
THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST Tue 2010-03-09 17:12 EST
The recent uptick in stocks has not been met with much enthusiasm by corporate insiders. In fact, pessimism rules the day in the land of insider buying and selling trends...The selling was the highest level experienced this year. Interestingly, as the rally has continued insiders have actually increased their selling...
THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST Sat 2010-02-27 23:06 EST
Warren Buffett is the most glorified and respected investor of all time. And rightfully so. After all, he became the world's wealthiest man by essentially picking stocks. But Warren Buffett...formed one of the original hedge funds (The Buffett Partnership Ltd) and used his gains to one day purchase Berkshire Hathaway. His evolution into the value investor we now think of today has been long in the making. Make no mistake, Buffett is a hedge fund manager. Yes, he comes from the ilk of the oft vilified and awful hedge fund clan. Today, he hides behind the curtain of incorporation, but in many ways Buffett hasn't changed one bit since his Partnership days...
THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST Wed 2010-02-10 11:22 EST
The first time I spoke with real estate entrepreneur Andy Miller was in late 2007, when I asked him to serve on the faculty of a Casey Research Summit...what most intrigued me about Andy was that he had been almost alone among his peer group in foreseeing the coming end of the real estate bubble, and in liquidating essentially all of his considerable portfolio of projects near the top...he remains deeply concerned about the outlook for real estate...the United States home mortgage market has been nationalized without anybody noticing...If government support goes away, and it will go away, where will that leave the home market? It leaves you with a catastrophe...eventually the bond market is going to gag on the government-sponsored paper...commercial properties are not performing and that values have gone down, although I've got to tell you, the denial is still widespread, particularly in the United States and on the part of lenders sitting on and servicing all these real estate portfolios...The current volume of defaults is already alarming. And the volume of commercial real estate defaults is growing every month...When you hit that breaking point, unless there's some alternative in place, it's going to be a very hideous picture for the bond market and the banking system...second quarter 2010 is a guess...the FDIC and the Treasury Department have decided that rather than see 1,000 or 2,000 banks go under and then create another RTC to sift through all the bad assets, they'll let the banking system warehouse the bad assets. Their plan is to leave the assets in place, and then, when the market changes, let the banks deal with them. Now, that's horribly destructive...it's exactly a Japanese-style solution...The entire U.S. residential mortgage market has in effect been nationalized, but there wasn't any act of Congress, no screaming and shouting, no headlines in the Wall Street Journal or the New York Times...That's a template for what they could do with the commercial loan market.
insider's view; pragmatic capitalists; Real Estate Train Wreck.
