Tue 2010-10-12 16:01 EDT

billy blog >> Blog Archive >> Iceland ... another neo-liberal casuality

...For a real world example of the benefits of adopting a floating, sovereign, currency we can look to Argentina....At the time of the 2001 crisis, the government realised it had to adopt a domestically-oriented growth strategy. One of the first policy initiatives taken by newly elected President Kirchner was a massive job creation program that guaranteed employment for poor heads of households. Within four months, the Plan Jefes y Jefas de Hogar (Head of Households Plan) had created jobs for 2 million participants which was around 13 per cent of the labour force. This not only helped to quell social unrest by providing income to Argentina's poorest families, but it also put the economy on the road to recovery. Conservative estimates of the multiplier effect of the increased spending by Jefes workers are that it added a boost of more than 2.5 per cent of GDP. In addition, the program provided needed services and new public infrastructure that encouraged additional private sector spending. Without the flexibility provided by a sovereign, floating, currency, the government would not have been able to promise such a job guarantee. Argentina demonstrated something that the World's financial masters didn't want anyone to know about. That a country with huge foreign debt obligations can default successfully and enjoy renewed fortune based on domestic employment growth strategies and more inclusive welfare policies without an IMF austerity program being needed. And then as growth resumes, renewed FDI floods in...sovereign governments are not necessarily at the hostage of global financial markets. They can steer a strong recovery path based on domestically-orientated policies -- such as the introduction of a Job Guarantee -- which directly benefit the population by insulating the most disadvantaged workers from the devastation that recession brings...

Billy Blog; blogs Archive; Iceland; neo-liberal casuality.

Sun 2010-10-10 11:56 EDT

The Federal Reserve's Relevance Test - Project Syndicate

Joseph E. Stiglitz

...as investors look outside the US for higher yield, the flood of money out of the dollar has bid up exchange rates in emerging markets around the world. Emerging markets know this, and are upset -- Brazil has vehemently expressed its concerns -- not only about the increased value of their currency, but that the influx of money risks fueling asset bubbles or triggering inflation. The normal response of emerging-market central banks to bubbles or inflation would be to raise interest rates -- thereby increasing their currencies' value still more. US policy is thus delivering a double whammy on competitive devaluation -- weakening the dollar and forcing competitors to strengthen their currencies...

Federal Reserve's Relevance Test; Project Syndicate.

billy blog Wed 2010-09-29 10:15 EDT

Budget deficits do not cause higher interest rates

Bill Mitchell

...An often-cited paper outlining the ways in which budget deficits allegedly push up interest rates is -- Government Debt -- by Elmendorf and Mankiw (1998 -- subsequently published in a book in 1999). This paper was somewhat influential in perpetuating the mainstream myths about government debt and interest rates...Their depiction of...Ricardian equivalence...alleges that: ``the choice between debt and tax finance of government expenditure is irrelevant...[because]...a budget deficit today...[requires]...higher taxes in the future...'' ...I have dealt with this view extensively...Ignoring the fact that the description of a government raising taxes to pay back a deficit is nonsensical when applied to a fiat currency issuing government, the Ricardian Equivalence models rest [on] several key and extreme assumptions about behaviour and knowledge. Should any of these assumptions fail to hold (at any point in time), then the predictions of the models are meaningless. The other point is that the models have failed badly to predict or explain key policy changes in the past. That is no surprise given the assumptions they make about human behaviour. There are no Ricardian economies. It was always an intellectual ploy without any credibility to bolster the anti-government case that was being fought then (late 1970s, early 1980s) just as hard as it is being fought now...So where do the mainstream economists go wrong? At the heart of this conception is the [pre-Keynesian] theory of loanable funds...where perfectly flexible prices delivered self-adjusting, market-clearing aggregate markets at all times...Mankiw claims that this ``market works much like other markets in the economy''...[assuming] that savings are finite and the government spending is financially constrained which means it has to seek ``funding'' in order to progress their fiscal plans. The result competition for the ``finite'' saving pool drives interest rates up and damages private spending. This is what is taught under the heading ``financial crowding out''...Virtually none of the assumptions that underpin the key mainstream models relating to the conduct of government and the monetary system hold in the real world...When confronted with increasing empirical failures, the mainstream economists introduce these ad hoc amendments to the specifications to make them more realistic...The Australian Treasury Paper [used advanced econometric analysis to find that] domestic budget deficits do not drive up interest rates. The long-run effect...is virtually zero. The short-run effect is zero!...toss out your Mankiw textbooks...

Billy Blog; budgets deficit; caused higher Interest rate.

New Economic Perspectives Wed 2010-09-29 09:11 EDT

An Interview with Warren Mosler: Modern Money Theory and the Exonomy

Economic Perspectives from Kansas City

...unemployment is evidence of a lack of aggregate demand, so what the world is lacking is sufficient aggregate demand. *In the United States, my prescription includes 1) what we call a payroll tax holiday, i.e., a tax reduction, 2) a revenue distribution to the states by the federal government and 3) a federally funded $8.00-per-hour job for anyone willing and able to work. * *For the euro zone, I propose a distribution from the European Central Bank to the national governments of perhaps as much as 20 percent of GDP to be done on a per capita basis so it will be fair to all the member nations*.

Exonomy; interview; Modern Money Theory; New Economic Perspectives; Warren Mosler.

Minyanville Wed 2010-09-29 09:08 EDT

Excerpt From "Traders, Guns & Money" (Part 3)

Satyajit Das

Minyanville Professor Satyajit Das' book "Traders Guns & Money" is a wickedly comic exposé of the culture games and pure deceptions played out every day in trading rooms around the world. And played out with other people's money. Das is an international expert on financial derivatives and has more than 30 years of experience in the financial markets. Having worked on both the sell side and buy side for such banks as the Commonwealth Bank of Australia Citicorp Investment Bank Merrill Lynch and the TNT Group he now acts as a consultant advising banks and corporations and presenting

excerpts; gun; Minyanville; money; Part 3; Traders.

Sat 2010-09-25 11:02 EDT

Where is the World Economy Headed?

Michael Hudson

...financial maneuvering and debt leverage play the role that military conquest did in times past. Its aim is still to control land, basic infrastructure and the economic surplus -- and also to gain control of national savings, commercial banking and central bank policy...Indebted ``host economies'' are in a similar position to that of defeated countries. Their economic surplus is transferred abroad financially, while locally, debtors lose sovereignty over their own financial, economic and tax policy. Public infrastructure is sold off to foreign buyers, on credit and therefore paying interest and fees that are expensed as tax-deductible and paid to foreigners. The Washington Consensus applauds this pro-rentier policy. Its neoliberal ideology holds that the most efficient path to wealth is to shift economic planning out of the hands of government into those of bankers and money managers in charge of privatizing and financializing the economy. Almost without anyone noticing, this view is replacing the classical law of nations based on the idea of sovereignty over debt and financial policy, tariff and tax policy...Bankers in the North look upon any economic surplus -- real estate rent, corporate cash flow or even the government's taxing power or ability to sell off public enterprises -- as a source of revenue to pay interest on debts...The original liberals -- from Adam Smith and the Physiocrats through John Stuart Mill and even Winston Churchill -- urged that the tax system be based on the economic rent of land so as to keep down the price of housing (and hence labor's cost of living). The Progressive Era followed this principle by aiming to keep natural monopolies such as transportation, communication and even banks (or at least, free credit creation) in the public domain. But the post-1980 world has encouraged private owners to buy them on credit and extract economic rent, thereby shifting the tax burden onto labor, industry and agriculture -- while concentrating wealth, first on credit and then via the enormous recent public bailouts of this failed financial debt pyramiding and deregulation...At issue is the concept of free markets. Are they to be free from monopoly and special privilege, or free for the occupying financial invaders and speculators?...

World Economy Headed.

Christopher Whalen Sat 2010-09-25 09:52 EDT

Double dip or global deflation?

Christopher Whalen

...Let's start with the term ``recession,'' which itself reflects the assumption that economic growth is always positive and the trend line is always upward sloping. While many economists in the U.S. remain convinced that this is an accurate descriptor, what Americans and many other people of the world need to consider is whether the assumption that the economy will grow endlessly is reasonable...much of what Americans think was real growth supported by real income and real work was, in fact, the result of deficit spending and reckless monetary expansion by the Fed, first under Alan Greenspan and now Ben Bernake...some of the leading experts in the housing sector believe that the U.S. is less than 25% through the restructuring of defaulted loans on commercial and residential real estate, and that the backlog is growing...Just as the housing sector and the related debt was the driver of the U.S. economy over the past several decades, I believe that the deflation of the housing market could spell an equally drastic period of shrinkage in economic activity in the U.S. and around the world...

Christopher Whalen; double dip; Global deflation.

Mon 2010-09-20 19:04 EDT

Excerpt From "Traders, Guns & Money" (Part 2)

Satyajit Das

Minyanville Professor Satyajit Das' "Traders, Guns & Money" is a wickedly comic exposé of the culture, games, and pure deceptions played out every day in trading rooms around the world. And played out with other people's money...

excerpts; gun; money; Part 2; Traders.

Mon 2010-09-20 10:12 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Fiat World Mathematical Model

...Conditions today are essentially the same as during the great depression...It is the destruction of credit, coupled with the fact that what the Fed is printing is not even being lent that matters...we are in deflation based on the following definitions: Inflation is a net expansion of money and credit. Deflation is a net contraction of money and credit. In both definitions, credit needs to be marked to market...the mark to market value of credit is contracting faster than base money is rising...The Fed tries to hide the contraction in the market value of bank credit by its Don't Ask, Don't Sell policy...The credit bubble that just popped exceeded that preceding the great depression, not just in the US but worldwide. Thus, it is unrealistic to expect the deflationary bust to be anything other than the biggest bust in history. Those looking for hyperinflation or even strong inflation in light of the above, are simply looking at the wrong model...

Fiat World Mathematical Model; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM Mon 2010-09-20 09:57 EDT

WHITHER CHINA?

Simon Hunt

In all likelihood, China has entered the most critical and taxing period since the country was reopened to the outside world in the 1970s. Domestically, there are a slew of issues, any one of which could create instability...Few can know the full story of what goes on within the State Council, but there appears to be a battle royal being fought over the real estate sector. There are those within the leadership who are concerned that average home prices have gotten too high for most first-time buyers (see our previous visit report). They want to see average prices fall by 10-20% across the country. Against this group are not just real estate developers but local governments and many others within Beijing...In effect, what is being seen is a battle between central and local governments. In our view, this is a fight that central government cannot afford to lose...against a background of cheap money and plenty of credit, house prices across the country have become unaffordable to most first-time buyers...if these price developments continued unchecked the leadership would risk encountering social instability...we doubt there will be any easing of policy until average house prices fall into the 10-20% range. China is transiting into a very difficult period as focus shifts towards sustainable domestic growth and away from short-term measures to defend the 8% GDP mantra. This transition is occurring when the existing leadership is preparing to give way to the new set in 2012, when social stability could be threatened if there are policy mistakes...

China; PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM.

Fri 2010-09-17 19:54 EDT

Obama's Thatcherite Gift to the Banks

Michael Hudson

I can smell the newest giveaway looming a mile off. The Wall Street bailout, health-insurance giveaway and support of real estate prices rather than mortgage-debt write-downs were bad enough, not to mention the Oil War's Afghan extension. But now comes a topper: the $50 billion transportation infrastructure plan that Obama proposed in Milwaukee -- cynically enough, on Labor Day. It looks like the Thatcherite Public-Private Partnership, Britain's notorious giveaway to the City of London underwriters. The financial giveaway had the effect of increasing prices for basic infrastructure services by building in heavy financial fees -- guaranteed for the banks, who lent the money that banks and property owners used to pay in taxes in more progressive times...This threatens to be the kind of tollbooth program that the World Bank and IMF have been foisting on hapless Third World populations for the past half-century. The ``infrastructure bank,'' reports The New York Times, ``would be run by the government but would pool tax dollars with private investment.'' It would be a test balloon for financing ``a broader range of projects, including water and clean-energy projects,'' for which Democrats already are drawing up a blueprint...

bank; Obama's Thatcherite Gift.

naked capitalism Fri 2010-09-17 18:52 EDT

Why Do We Keep Indulging the Fiction That Banks Are Private Enterprises?

... Big finance has an unlimited credit line with governments around the globe. ``Most subsidized industry in the world'' is inadequate to describe this relationship. Banks are now in the permanent role of looters, as described in the classic Akerlof/Romer paper. They run highly leveraged operations, extract compensation based on questionable accounting and officially-subsidized risk-taking, and dump their losses on the public at large...The usual narrative, ``privatized gains and socialized losses'' is insufficient to describe the dynamic at work. The banking industry falsely depicts markets, and by extension, its incumbents as a bastion of capitalism. The blatant manipulations of the equity markets shows that financial activity, which used to be recognized as valuable because it supported commercial activity, is whenever possible being subverted to industry rent-seeking. And worse, these activities are state supported...banks can no longer meaningfully be called private enterprises, yet no one in the media will challenge this fiction...

bank; fiction; Keep Indulging; naked capitalism; private enterprise.

China Financial Markets Wed 2010-09-15 19:28 EDT

What do banking crises have to do with consumption?

Michael Pettis

For the next several years, as Keynes reminded us in the 1930s, savings is not going to be a virtue for the world economy. It is more likely to be a vice. In order to regain growth the world desperately needs less savings and more private consumption, but I think it is not going to get nearly enough to generate growth. Why? Because in all the major economies the banking systems are largely insolvent, or about to become so, and desperately need to rebuild capital...With all of the major economies facing banking crises, they must clean up the banks by forcing the household sector to pay the bill. This will put downward pressure on household disposable income and wealth for many years...For twenty years Japanese consumption growth has limped along [due to paying for] their banking crisis...Chinese consumption dropped from a very-low 45% of GDP ten years ago to an astonishing 36% last year just as -- no coincidence -- Chinese households were forced to clean up the last banking crisis...

bank crises; China Financial Markets; consumption.

Sat 2010-09-11 23:31 EDT

Excerpt From "Traders, Guns & Money" (Part 1)

Satyajit Das

Minyanville Professor Satyajit Das' "Traders, Guns & Money" is a wickedly comic exposé of the culture, games, and pure deceptions played out every day in trading rooms around the world. And played out with other people's money. Das is an international expert on financial derivatives and has more than 30 years of experience in the financial markets. Having worked on both the sell side and buy side for such banks as the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Citicorp Investment Bank, Merrill Lynch, and the TNT Group, he now acts as a consultant advising banks and corporations and presenting seminars on derivatives throughout the world...

excerpts; gun; money; Part 1; Traders.

Money Game Wed 2010-09-01 10:53 EDT

Why Ben Bernanke's Next Round Of Quantitative Easing Will Be Another Huge Flop

There is perhaps, no greater misunderstanding in the investment world today than the topic of quantitative easing [QE]. After all, it sounds so fancy, strange and complex. But in reality, it is quite a simple operation...The Fed simply electronically swaps an asset with the private sector. In most cases it swaps deposits with an interest bearing asset...The theory behind QE is that the Fed can reduce interest rates via asset purchases (which supposedly creates demand for debt) while also strengthening the bank balance sheet (which entices them to lend). Unfortunately, we've lived thru this scenario before and history shows us that neither is actually true. Banks are never reserve constrained and a private sector that is deeply indebted will not likely be enticed to borrow regardless of the rate of interest...The most glaring example of failed QE is in Japan in 2001. Richard Koo refers to this event as the ``greatest monetary non-event''...Since Ben Bernanke initiated his great monetarist gaffe in 2008 there has been almost no sign of a sustainable private sector recovery. Mr. Bernanke's new form of trickle down economics has surely fixed the banking sector (or at least bought some time), but the recovery ended there. ..The hyperventilating hyperinflationists and those investors calling for inevitable US default are now clinging to this QE story as their inflation or default thesis crumbles before their very eyes...With the government merely swapping assets they are not actually ``printing'' any new money. In fact, the government is now essentially stealing interest bearing assets from the private sector and replacing them with deposits...now that the banks are flush with excess reserves this policy response would in fact be deflationary - not inflationary...

Ben Bernanke's; Huge Flop; Money game; Quantitative Easing.

Tue 2010-08-24 20:21 EDT

Gonzalo Lira: How Hyperinflation Will Happen

Right now, we are in the middle of deflation. The Global Depression we are experiencing has squeezed both aggregate demand levels and aggregate asset prices as never before. Since the credit crunch of September 2008, the U.S. and world economies have been slowly circling the deflationary drain...For its part, the Federal Reserve has been busy propping up all assets--including Treasuries--by way of ``quantitative easing''...But this Fed policy--call it ``money-printing'', call it ``liquidity injections'', call it ``asset price stabilization''--has been overwhelmed by the credit contraction...the next step down in this world-historical Global Depression which we are experiencing will be hyperinflation...Hyperinflation is the loss of faith in the currency. Prices rise in a hyperinflationary environment just like in an inflationary environment, but they rise not because people want more money for their labor or for commodities, but because people are trying to get out of the currency. It's not that they want more money--they want less of the currency: So they will pay anything for a good which is not the currency...Treasuries are now the New and Improved Toxic Asset...there will be a commodities burp: A slight but sudden rise in the price of a necessary commodity, such as oil...asset managers will sell Treasuries...right before a largish Treasury auction. So Bernanke and the Fed will buy Treasuries, in an effort to counteract the sell-off and maintain low yields...The Fed's buying of Treasuries will occur in such a way that it will encourage asset managers to dump even more Treasuries...It will be a flash panic...By the end of that terrible day, commodites of all stripes--precious and industrial metals, oil, foodstuffs--will shoot the moon...if it doesn't happen this fall, it'll happen next fall, without question before the end of 2011...

Gonzalo Lira; happened; Hyperinflation.

Tue 2010-08-24 20:09 EDT

EconomicPolicyJournal.com: Is China Executing a Cunning Sun Tzu Strategy to Destroy the Dollar and Cause an Upward Price Explosion in Gold?

Elizabeth Brinsden

Could China be coveting the role of the next economic superpower, thereby supplanting the USA? If so, is China planning to do this by design or is it simply awaiting this result by default as a result of the total collapse of the American economic system?...At a superficial level, it may appear to the onlooker that China has been sucked into a giant malinvestment by purchasing these bonds, but a closer look at Master Sun's stratagems may reveal a well conceived and even cunning plan...China may well be heading in the direction of pegging its currency in some form to something else and that that something else, is very likely to be gold. Then China could offload its US bonds by sale , once again raising the price of gold dramatically which in turn would compensate for the dollar losses...Not only would this give China the only trustworthy currency in the world, but it would simultaneously and conveniently constitute the knock-out blow to the USA as the economic superpower...

caused; China executive; com; Cunning Sun Tzu Strategy; destroyed; Dollar; EconomicPolicyJournal; gold; Upward Price Explosion.

naked capitalism Sun 2010-08-22 09:32 EDT

Auerback: News Flash-- China Reduces US Treasury Holdings, World Does Not Come To an End

Marshall Auerback

In a post titled ``China Cuts US Treasury Holdings By Record Amount,'' Mike Norman makes the excellent observation that while China is moving its money out of Treasuries, interest rates are hitting record lows. In other words, the sky still isn't falling. So, Mike wonders, ``Where is the Debt/Doomsday crowd?'' He rightly concludes: ``They're nowhere to be found because they can't explain this. This is a `gut punch' to them. Their whole theory is out the window. They just don't understand or don't want to understand, that interest rates are set by the Fed...PERIOD!!!''...Also of note today: Tokyo's Nikkei QUICK News reports that the #309 10-year Japanese benchmark government bond, the current benchmark, traded to a yield of 0.920% Tuesday morning, down 2.5 basis points from yesterday's close. This is the lowest yield since August 13, 2003. This, from a country with a public debt-to-GDP ratio of 210%!...These are facts. Inconvenient for those who like to perpetuate the lie that the US or Japan faces imminent national insolvency as a means of justifying their almost daily attacks on proactive fiscal policy...

Auerback; China reducing; comes; ending; naked capitalism; News Flash; Treasury holds; world.

Phil's Favorites - By Ilene Thu 2010-08-19 15:58 EDT

Time for a New, New Deal?

Phil of Phil's Stock World

...The Big Lie being told by the right is that we can solve our problems by cutting spending and (ROFL) lowering taxes...Of course, let's keep in mind that the $1.5Tn the government spends directly employs 2.7M people and millions more indirectly so, for every person you cut, make sure you add back $20,000 a year for unemployment benefits and administration (or are we going to throw them all on the street?)...the real glove-across-your-face insult to your intelligence comes when they try to tell you that giving tax breaks to the rich and to corporations will help...US Corporations only paid a grand total of $138Bn in taxes in 2009 (6.5% of all taxes collected)...US Corporations have done nothing but outsource America's future for decades and it is time for the bottom 99% of the income earners (those earning less than $250,000 a year) to wake up and smell the class warfare that is being waged against them. How can we even begin to entertain the idea of cutting government and cutting government spending when the sum total contribution of Big Business America represents a rounding error in our national budget?...When private business fails to expand, when the budgets cannot be balanced because 25% of the population is unable to make income tax contributions due to loss of jobs and homes -- then a wise man knows when it is time to step in and let the Government fill the void. Not with more bailouts to the rich who, like Reagan's deficit ``are big enough to care for themselves'' but with bold programs that invest in the future of this country and utilize the skills and labor of this country and make America strong and independent...

Ilene; new; new deal; Phil's Favorites; Time.

Mon 2010-08-16 12:51 EDT

Nathan Lewis: Where's The Gold?

Nathan Lewis

...there are indications that the seller side of futures contracts (such as Deutsche Bank in April) are having a difficult time making good on their commitments. Second, the information reported by the Comex regarding physical inflows and outflows is looking more and more like a convenient fiction. Third, there is some doubt as to whether there is gold in inventory -- as there absolutely should be -- to match existing warehouse receipts. Fourth, the Comex warehouse is one of the most secure forms of gold investment in the world. If they can't be trusted, what does that say about ETFs, pooled accounts, futures, forwards, options, and all the other forms of "paper gold" out there? Fifth, if it becomes clearer that there is no physical supply to meet physical demand, the dollar price of gold could go much higher.

gold; Nathan Lewis; s.

billy blog Sat 2010-08-07 20:01 EDT

The government is the last borrower left standing

Remember back last year when the predictions were coming in daily that Japan was heading for insolvency and the thirst for Japanese government bonds would soon disappear as the public debt to GDP ratio headed towards 200 per cent? Remember the likes of David Einhorn...who was predicting that Japan was about to collapse -- having probably gone past the point of no return. This has been a common theme wheeled out by the deficit terrorists intent on bullying governments into cutting net spending in the name of fiscal responsibility. Well once again the empirical world is moving against the deficit terrorists as it does with every macroeconomic data release that comes out each day...On July 22, 2010, Richard Koo appeared before the Committee and presented his testimony...his views have resonance with the main perspectives offered by MMT although he does get some things wrong. His recent testimony is one of the better commentaries on the current economic problems but probably fell on deaf (or dumb) ears at the hearing. Koo told the hearing that there are recessions and then there are depressions. The correct policy response must differentiate correctly between these two economic episodes...

Billy Blog; borrower left standing; government.

China Financial Markets Tue 2010-08-03 14:48 EDT

The capital tsunami is a bigger threat than the nuclear option

...China's ``nuclear option'', which has generated a great deal of nervousness among investors and policy-making circles in the US, is a myth, and what the US should be much more concerned about is its diametric opposite -- a tsunami of capital flooding into the country...All the major capital exporting countries...are eager to maintain and even increase their capital exports. But the balance of payments must balance, and all that exported capital must be imported somewhere else...As net capital exporters try desperately to maintain or increase their capital exports, and deficit Europe sees net capital imports collapse, the only way the world can achieve balance without a sharp contraction in the capital-exporting countries is if US net capital imports surge. And at first they will surge. Foreigners...will buy more dollar assets, including USG bonds, than before...the US trade deficit will inexorably rise as Germany, Japan and China try to keep up their capital exports and as European capital imports drop...This tsunami will bring with it a corresponding surge in the US trade deficit and, with it, a rise in US unemployment. It will also force the US Treasury to increase the fiscal deficit as more of the jobs created by its spending leak abroad...in the past massive capital recycling has usually been very good for asset markets. Might we see a surge in the US asset markets, at least until next year when Congress starts getting tough on the trade deficit?...

bigger threat; capital tsunami; China Financial Markets; nuclear option.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Tue 2010-08-03 12:11 EDT

Should China Dump Dollars for Commodities? What about the "Nuclear Option" of Dumping Treasuries? Can Global Trade Collapse?

Michael Shedlock

Every time there is a little blip by China in its purchasing or holding of US treasuries, hyperinflationists come out of the woodwork ranting about the "Nuclear Option" of China dumping treasuries en masse. Such fears are extremely overblown for several reasons...[Michael Pettis argues] the real problem is exactly the opposite of what most are ranting about: ``The problem facing the US and the world is not that China may stop purchasing US Treasury obligations. The problem is exactly the opposite. The major capital exporting countries -- China, Germany, and Japan -- are desperate to maintain or even increase their net capital exports, which are simply the flip side of their trade surpluses.'' ...If consumers decide to stop buying goods from China there is almost nothing China can do about it...Chinese exporters are already under severe price pressures...pray tell what is stopping a collapse in global trade? Nothing as far as I can see. It all depends on consumer attitudes. Certainly Bernanke and Congress will do their best efforts to get banks to lend and consumers to spend, it is by no means a certainty the Fed will succeed...consumer attitudes towards spending and debt will determine the global trade imbalance math...The result may be a collapse in global trade, not an inflationary event to say the least.

China Dumps dollar; Commodities; dumped Treasury; global trade collapsed; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; nuclear option.

naked capitalism Mon 2010-07-19 16:57 EDT

58% of Real Income Growth Since 1976 Went to Top 1% (and Why That Matters)

...the new program was to reduce workers' bargaining power, both by combating unions, and by tolerating un and underemployment. Rising worker wages had been seen as crucial to greater prosperity; it was quietly abandoned as a policy goal. But this has profound implications. As rising income inequality demonstrates, the benefits of growth accrued substantially to those at the very top...much of America seems blithely unaware of our diminished role in the world. Likewise, financiers, having wrested massive concessions from national governments (bailouts with almost no concessions demanded of them) if anything view themselves as even more influential than before the crisis. In other words, both the distorted self image of key players and a reluctance to admit the deep seated nature of the problems make a happy resolution unlikely.

1976 Went; 58; matter; naked capitalism; real income growth; Top 1.