naked capitalism Sun 2009-10-11 17:06 EDT

Asian Countries Intervene to Prop Up Greenback (Dollar Bind Edition)

An unannounced but evidently coordinated effort to arrest or at least slow the fall of the dollar is underway. The Financial Times indicated that Asian central banks were aggressive dollar buyers on Thursday, but the information came via currency traders rather than an official pronouncement. Thailand, Malaysia and Taiwan made substantial purchases; Hong Kong and Singapore also intervened today. The action may also have a secondary objective of rejiggering their currency values versus China's, since China repegged the renminbi against the dollar...

Asian Countries Intervene; Dollar Bind Edition; greenback; naked capitalism; prop.

Jesse's Café Américain Sat 2009-10-10 11:52 EDT

Beta Monster: The Most Dangerous Banks In the World

Jesse

The most leveraged bank by far is the-investment-bank-which-must-not-be-named. It is followed by J.P. Morgan on a percentage basis, but JPM is far larger nominally than these charts indicate because of its much larger capital base. Its in the nature of the difference between a cardshark (GS) and a pawnshop (JPM). Or perhaps just the capital requirements of the short versus the long con. [Goldman Sachs astronomical credit exposure, trading revenue, derivatives exposure]

Beta Monsters; Dangerous Banks; Jesse's Café Américain; world.

Calculated Risk Tue 2009-09-22 09:28 EDT

GAO Report: AIG Stabilized, Repayment "Unclear"

CalculatedRisk

A report on AIG from the General Accounting Office (GAO): While federal assistance has helped stabilize AIG's financial condition, GAO-developed indicators suggest that AIG's ability to restructure its business and repay the government is unclear at this time.

AIG Stabilized; Calculated Risk; GAO report; repayments; unclear.

The Guardian World News Sun 2009-09-20 10:57 EDT

Sarkozy refuses to fret over GDP

Nicolas Sarkozy called for a "great revolution" in the way national wealth is measured today, throwing his weight behind a report which criticises "GDP fetishism" and prioritises quality of life over financial growth. Speaking days before the G20 summit in Pittsburgh, France's president urged the rest of the world to follow his example as he ordered a shake-up in research methods aimed at providing a more balanced reading of countries' performance. Endorsing the recommendations of a report given to him by Nobel prize winners Joseph Stiglitz and Amartya Sen, he said governments should do away with the "religion of statistics" in which financial prowess was the sole indicator of a country's state of health.

fret; GDP; Guardian World News; Sarkozy refuses.

Jesse's Café Américain Sun 2009-09-13 12:28 EDT

H&S Top and "Iron Cross" on Weekly Dollar Chart Targets 66

Jesse

The weekly chart on the US Dollar Index has rather awful technicals, as it has dropped to a recent low, and set the 'iron cross' in the moving averages that is generally the hallmark of a sustained decline...The ultimate objective of this formation remains 66. It is difficult to square this with a technical outlook that includes a major decline in the US equity indices, since the pairs have been running inversely, that is, dollar down, and stocks up.

H; Iron Cross; Jesse's Café Américain; s Top; Weekly Dollar Chart Targets 66.

Jesse's Café Américain Sun 2009-09-13 12:21 EDT

Signs of an Approaching Decline in US Equities That Could Be Quite Impressive

Jesse

There is a strong correlation between this US equity rally and the Fed monetization of debt, which indicates a 'hot money' flow into US stocks but with thin volumes from a significant market bottom. This points to 'technical price trading' by the financial sector, also known was price manipulation, or trading stocks like commodities. Continued heavy insider selling from those with the best forward view of the real economy is a clear sign of a top. No one can trust what the Fed or the Administration are saying about an economic recovery, as much now as ever. Obama's administration is no reform government ...We will not be surprised if there is a significant decline, first to a pullback of about 7 to 10 percent. Then we will see if the market can rally on renewed dollar devaluation and if not, then another major slide to test lower levels.

Approaching Decline; Equities; impressive; Jesse's Café Américain; signed.

zero hedge Tue 2009-09-01 19:43 EDT

Oil And Treasuries Paint A Divergent Inflation Picture, Yet Is It Even Relevant?

...bonds are reflecting a deflationary environment while commodities and stocks are betting on inflation...Yet...both stocks and bonds are potentially being manipulated to a point where they bear no reflection of the underlying assets, whose values they are purported to represent...is the debate about inflation versus deflation based on asset trends really relevant: a bizarro market dominated by animal spirits and intraday greed has ceased to indicate any long-term trends and our advice is to simply enjoy it for what it is - a ponzi casino...

Divergent Inflation Picture; Oil; relevant; Treasuries Paint; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Fri 2009-08-28 17:15 EDT

The Oil-Gas Six Sigma Dislocation

The CFTC has earned its stripes by allowing speculators to take the oil to natty relationship to unprecedented arb levels. Represented in energy content equivalents, where oil traditionally has been in the 6x-12x range for gas, the most recent reading is 26.36! This is, as the chart indicates, your six sigma event for the day. A long NG1 - short CL1 arb may take some abuse but absent Amaranth coming out of somewhere (and even they were eventually prosecuted), this relationship should collapse to some semblance of normalcy. Although in this bizarro market it is guaranteed to do the opposite of what any fundamental or technical relationships dictate.

Oil gas; Sigma Dislocation; Zero Hedge.

Fri 2009-01-16 00:00 EST

Calculated Risk: Credit Crisis Indicators: Improvement

Calculated Risk; Credit Crisis Indicators; improves.

Sun 2008-08-24 00:00 EDT

Safe Haven | The Elusive Bottom

Safehaven | The Elusive Bottom, by Merrill-Lynch economist David A. Rosenberg; predicting lengthy recession, secular bear market dating from 2000, eventual bullish indicators include savings rate above 8%, housing supply below 8 months, household interest coverage below 10.5%; frugality is in; bullish on bonds

elusive bottom; safe haven.

Tue 2008-08-19 00:00 EDT

Winter (Economic & Market) Watch >> Houston We Have a Problem

Winter (Economic & Market) Watch >> Houston We Have a Problem; "key data point to watch in terms of a bottom in housing prices is the vacancy rate. Once this reaches about 1.75% [currently almost 3%] it indicates that housing is being used for its actual purpose, namely as occupied shelter."

economic; Houston; Market; problem; watch; winter.

Tue 2008-08-19 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: M3 Contraction - The Future Is Now

falling money supply indicates deflation

future; M3 Contraction; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Wed 2008-06-11 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Chinese Stock Markets Tank, Other Foreign Indices Fall

Chinese Stock Markets Tank; Foreign Indices Fall; naked capitalism.

Tue 2008-05-13 00:00 EDT

RGE - The de facto nationalization of the global financial system

by Brad Setser; perhaps "the rise in inflation in the Gulf and China and the difficulties both are facing trying to sterilize the rapid growth in the foreign assets is an indicator that there is a small risk that the US also might end up being a bit too large for the emerging world to save"

de facto nationalization; global financial system; RGE.

Thu 2008-02-14 00:00 EST

Hussman Funds - Going for the Gold

Four simple indicators for monitoring the condition of the precious metals markets; adapted from 1999 Hussman Econometrics

Go; gold; Hussman Funds.

Tue 2007-08-28 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: America: Banana Republic Watch

(2007-05-06); "taking steps towards being a small-minded, elite-dominated, sham democracy"; overstating employment; ministry of truth; overstating GDP by hedonic adjustment; birth/death adjustments to employment; "Banana Republic Indicators"

America; Banana Republic Watch; naked capitalism.