Fri 2010-05-14 12:11 EDT

"Banging" the U.S. Stock Market

Janet Tavakoli

Chicago residents grew up to the sound of local early morning radio rundowns of pork belly futures and other exchange traded commodities. Every trick in the book from manipulation of soybeans to silver has played out in Chicago's trading pits. Every market professional I've talked to in Chicago since Thursday is of the same opinion. It makes no difference whether human beings or computers are front running and manipulating trades. The gyrations in the market last week have the look and feel of classic market manipulation...

bang; U.S. stock market.

naked capitalism Thu 2010-05-13 18:21 EDT

An Analysis of the Thursday Meltdown

...Contrast the reports at the Times and the Wall Street Journal, that the officialdom is pouring through the records and is still puzzled after a full three days on the case, versus this analysis produced by a lone sell-side analyst (who sadly must remain anonymous) roughly 24 hours after the implosion...``...it was not a sudden, random surge of volume from a fat finger that overwhelmed the market. It was a steady onslaught of selling that pressured the market lower in order to catch up with the carnage taking place in the credit markets and the currency markets...this episode exposed structural flaws in how a trade is implemented (think orphaned algo orders) and it exposed the danger of leaving market making up to a network of entities with no mandate to ensure the smooth and orderly functioning of the market (think of the electronic market makers and high freqs who can pull bids instantaneously as opposed to a specialist on the floor who has a clearly defined mandate to provide liquidity).''

Analysis; naked capitalism; Thursday Meltdown.

naked capitalism Fri 2010-03-19 15:24 EDT

China's Exporters Hanging by a Thread?

Has the Chinese export sector become hostage to WalMartization, the ability of powerful retailers to squeeze vendor profit margins?...Vice Commerce Minister Zhong Shan, in an exclusive interview Thursday ahead of a visit to the U.S., said that the profit margin on many Chinese export goods was less than 2%. Most exporters absorbed the appreciation in the value of the yuan that followed its revaluation in 2005 by boosting innovation and cutting costs, but many were forced to close, he said. A further rise in the currency's value would endanger more exporters' survival, which China can't afford, he said... ...2% margins on export-oriented businesses is not representative of any sort of real competitive advantage. A real competitive advantage when it comes to exporting would show double-digits profit margins. This whole sector is hanging by a thread...nearly none of the activity China has engaged in since the downturn is secular or self-sustaining.

China's Exporters Hanging; naked capitalism; Threaded.

The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com Wed 2009-11-25 10:44 EST

Fed Beaten: Bill To Audit Federal Reserve Passes Key Hurdle

The Huffington Post News Editors

In an unprecedented defeat for the Federal Reserve, an amendment to audit the multi-trillion dollar institution was approved by the House Finance Committee with an overwhelming and bipartisan 43-26 vote on Thursday afternoon despite harried last-minute lobbying from top Fed officials and the surprise opposition of Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.), who had previously been a supporter. The measure, cosponsored by Reps. Ron Paul (R-Texas) and Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), authorizes the Government Accountability Office to conduct a wide-ranging audit of the Fed's opaque deals with foreign central banks and major U.S. financial institutions. The Fed has never had a real audit in its history and little is known of what it does with the trillions of dollars at its disposal.

Audit Federal Reserve Passes Key Hurdle; billed; com; Fed Beaten; full Feeds; HuffingtonPost.

naked capitalism Sun 2009-10-11 17:06 EDT

Asian Countries Intervene to Prop Up Greenback (Dollar Bind Edition)

An unannounced but evidently coordinated effort to arrest or at least slow the fall of the dollar is underway. The Financial Times indicated that Asian central banks were aggressive dollar buyers on Thursday, but the information came via currency traders rather than an official pronouncement. Thailand, Malaysia and Taiwan made substantial purchases; Hong Kong and Singapore also intervened today. The action may also have a secondary objective of rejiggering their currency values versus China's, since China repegged the renminbi against the dollar...

Asian Countries Intervene; Dollar Bind Edition; greenback; naked capitalism; prop.

Tue 2009-09-29 11:10 EDT

Steeling for a Currency Deal in Pittsburgh? - Up and Down Wall Street Daily - Barrons.com

RANDALL W. FORSYTH

An options play suggests somebody expects the G20 to hatch a scheme to stabilize currencies. Duct tape for the dollar?...Reports John F. Brady, futures expert at MF Global, there was a big seller of "volatility" in the euro versus the dollar Thursday...What's curious, Brady explains, is that vols on the euro already are low, so it's hard to see them going much lower...Which got me to wondering if the volatility seller was thinking the G20 would do something to force volatility lower -- that is, stabilize exchange rates...Notwithstanding the calls for a replacement of the dollar as the main reserve currency, gold isn't it, according to long-time market observer David P. Goldman,..."Even a rather wobbly reserve currency is better than gold," he writes as his alter ego, Spengler, whom he "channels" for Asia Times (www.atimes.com.) "Gold is far less liquid than U.S. Treasury securities, costly to store and insure, and above all more volatile in price...gold isn't an investment but an insurance policy against a breakdown of the function of the world financial system."

Barrons; com; currency deal; Pittsburgh; steel; Wall Street Daily.

Calculated Risk Fri 2009-09-04 19:01 EDT

Junk Bond Default Rate Passes 10 Percent

CalculatedRisk

From Rolfe Winkler at Reuters: U.S. junk bond default rate rises to 10.2 pct -SP The U.S. junk bond default rate rose to 10.2 percent in August from 9.4 percent in July ... Standard & Poor's data showed on Thursday. The default rate is expected to rise to 13.9 percent by July 2010 and could reach as high as 18 percent if economic conditions are worse than expected, SP said in a statement. ... In another sign of corporate distress, the rating agency has downgraded $2.9 trillion of company debt year to date, up from $1.9 trillion in the same period last year. Bad loans everywhere ...

Calculated Risk; Junk Bond Default Rate Passes 10 Percent.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Wed 2009-08-26 16:00 EDT

Critically Under-Capitalized Banks Direct Result Of "Wonderful Chain of Stupidity"

Michael Shedlock

Last week the Wall Street Journal ran an article about how trust securities sank Guaranty Financial Group and six family-controlled Illinois banks in early July. Please consider In New Phase of Crisis, Securities Sink Banks. Federal officials on Thursday were poised to seize Guaranty Financial Group Inc., in what would be the 10th-largest bank failure in U.S. history. Guaranty's woes were caused by its investment portfolio, stuffed with deteriorating securities created from pools of mortgages originated by some of the nation's worst lenders. Delinquency rates on the holdings have soared as high as 40%, forcing write-downs last month that consumed all of the bank's capital. Guaranty is one of thousands of banks that invested in such securities, which were often highly rated but ultimately hinged on the health of... Security losses are a non-operating item and are listed after pre-tax operating income on the call report. This is very unusual and possibly reveals another cancer hiding on many banks balance sheets. those garbage trust-preferred securities problems are on top of the widely expected fallout from commercial real estate problems affecting small to medium-sized regional banks. Thus, banking woes are much deeper in many areas than either the FDIC or Fed is admitting.

Capitalized Banks Direct Result; Criticizes; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; Stupid; Wonderful Chain.