Wed 2010-08-04 20:48 EDT

Janet Tavakoli: Stranguflation: Deflation and Inflation Where it Hurts America Most

Janet Tavakoli

The U.S. is suffering from high unemployment combined with too much consumer debt in a weak economy...our bloated financial sector has been sucking the life-blood out of the U.S. economy for years, and recent decisions insure it will continue to feed off taxpayers, while the host economy struggles for life...The bailouts were a perversion of capitalism and the principles upon which The Republic was founded. This was the result of influential interested parties reaching into the U.S. Treasury with no accountability. Capitalism doesn't call for bailouts, instead investors take losses. Shareholders in failed financial institutions should have been wiped out, debt holders would have had to accept discounts combined with debt for equity swaps, and financial institutions would have then been recapitalized without taxpayers footing the bill. Instead banks lobbied for relaxed accounting and ineffective "financial reform." No one, including bank managers, can tell how much capital is truly needed, and taxpayers' ongoing heavy subsidies give these financial institutions the appearance of stability.

deflation; hurting America; Inflation; Janet Tavakoli; Stranguflation.

Credit Writedowns Fri 2010-07-30 15:30 EDT

Subversive Economists

The economic research staff at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has been busy. Last week we wrote about the New York Fed's Staff Report No. 458 , which discussed the shadow banking system in the United States. Today we refer to two other new reports: Staff Report No. 457 , entitled ``Resolving Troubled Systemically Important Cross-Border Financial Institutions: Is a New Corporate Organizational Form Required?'', and Staff Report No. 463 , ``The Central-Bank Balance Sheet as an Instrument of Monetary Policy.'' After reviewing them, we are left to conclude that these three papers demonstrate that the research staff at the New York Fed is perhaps the most subversive group of working economists currently on the government payroll....The combination of these three papers seems to suggest that the Federal Reserve is conducting a serious re-evaluation of its traditional role in the new financial landscape. No. 458 acknowledges that the shadow banking system is huge, but largely beyond the regulatory reach--and backstopping help--of the Fed. No. 457 suggests that the complexity of a large, modern financial institution is not only a challenge for managers, but is also a challenge for regulators. It is a cri de coeur for simplicity. And No. 463 breaks new ground by explicitly including central bank balance sheet management as a part of the monetary policy model...

credit writedowns; Subversive Economists.

billy blog Mon 2010-06-07 19:00 EDT

Central bank independence -- another faux agenda

There are several strands to the mainstream neo-liberal attack on government macroeconomic policy activism. They get recycled regularly. ...Today, I am looking at another faux agenda -- the demand that central banks should be independent of the political process...The agenda is also tied in with the growing demand for fiscal rules which will further undermine public purpose in policy...I find it ironical that the freedom mongers have very limited appreciation of what freedom actually is. Allowing the unemployed to be ``bullied'' by amorphous bond markets is not a path to freedom...inflation targeting countries have failed to achieve superior outcomes in terms of output growth, inflation variability and output variability; moreover there is no evidence that inflation targeting has reduced inflation persistence...Central banks operating under this charter have forced the unemployed to engage in an involuntary fight against inflation and the fiscal authorities have further worsened the situation with complementary austerity...The conclusion that I have reached from studying this specific literature for many years is that there is no robust relationship between making the central bank independent and the performance of inflation...From a MMT perspective, the concept of CBI is anathema to the goal of aggregate policy (monetary and fiscal) to advance public purpose. By obsessing about inflation control, central banking has lost sight of what the purpose of policy is about...under the CBI ideology, monetary policy is not focused on advancing public purpose. Fighting inflation with unemployment is not advancing public purpose. The costs of inflation are much lower than the costs of unemployment. The mainstream fudge this by invoking their belief in the NAIRU which assumes these real sacrifices away in the ``long-run''...

Billy Blog; Central bank independence; faux agenda.

Sat 2010-04-24 08:59 EDT

Rent-A-Front: New Group Wages Stealth Battle Against Wall Street Reform | TPMMuckraker

TPM Media

...every indication is that Stop Too Big To Fail is an astroturf operation funded by corporate interests to give the appearance of grassroots opposition to reform..."These guys made the KGB look like amateurs, and I used to work in Russia quite a lot," says Simon Johnson, a former chief economist at the IMF, now at MIT, who is a prominent advocate of breaking up the big banks...the group pays lip service to the idea of breaking up the big banks while at the same time adopting "bailout fund" rhetoric used by Republicans, all the while devoting its resources to trying to kill financial reform altogether...Stop Too Big To Fail co-founder Bob Johnson...is president of Consumers for Competitive Choice (C4CC), which runs Stop Too Big To Fail...Before C4CC was Consumers for Competitive Choice it was Consumers for Cable Choice. That group was funded by big telecoms like Verizon and fought to deregulate the cable industry...the man who reached out to economist Simon Johnson about joining the Stop Too Big To Fail call was Oliver Wolf, a director with the DCI Group. DCI is the Washington public affairs firm that specializes in astroturf efforts and has worked for everyone from the Burmese junta to the tobacco industry.

front; New Group Wages Stealth Battle; renting; TPMmuckraker; Wall Street reforms.

Jesse's Café Américain Wed 2010-04-07 19:06 EDT

Banks Come Back For Another Bailout in Ireland While the US 'Manages Perceptions'

Jesse

The whole notion of bank bailouts is a tremendous injustice when not accompanied by personal bankruptcy and civil and criminal prosecution for those banks managers who created them and are found guilty of fraud. In addition, the owners of the banks, whether through debt or shares, should be wiped out and the bank placed in a proper receivership while its books are sorted out. The US is an accounting mirage. The notion that it will make money from its stake in Citi is a sleight of hand. The enormous subsidies to the banks both in terms of direct payments, indirect payments through entities like AIG, and subsidies such as the erosion of the currency and the deterioration of the real economy, will never be repaid. ...the facts seem to indicate that the US is still pursuing a policy of managed perceptions, accounting deceptions, and old fashioned insider dealing and other forms of corruption that always accompany government, but reach a feverish pitch in times of crisis. It is the establishment's form of looting.

Bailout; banking comes; Ireland; Jesse's Café Américain; managing perception.

Fri 2010-03-19 20:28 EDT

The Empire Continues to Strike Back: Team Obama Propaganda Campaign Reaches Fever Pitch >> naked capitalism

Yves Smith

I've seldom seen so much rubbish written by people who ought to know better in a single day...The campaign to defend Geithner and Emanuel, both architects of the administration's finance friendly policies has gone beyond what most people would see as spin into such an aggressive effort to manipulate popular perceptions that it is not a stretch to call it propaganda. This strategy, of relying on propaganda to mask their true intent, has become inevitable, given the strategic corner the Obama Adminstration has painted itself in. And this campaign has become increasingly desperate as the inconsistency between the Adminsitration's ``product positioning'' and observable reality become increasingly evident...

Empire Continues; naked capitalism; striking; Team Obama Propaganda Campaign Reaches Fever Pitch.

Tue 2010-01-12 23:32 EST

Dr. Edwin Vieira, Jr. on the Failure of the Public Sector, the Coming Military Crackdown and What Can Be Done to Stop It

...The foremost problem-because it is the source of, or contributes significantly to, almost every economic difficulty now plaguing this country-is the inherent and ineradicable instability of the present monetary and banking systems centered around the Federal Reserve System. The second problem derives from the first. It is the ever-accelerating development of a first-class para-militarized police-state apparatus centered around the United States Department of Homeland Security, with its tentacles reaching down into every police force throughout the States and localities. Fundamentally, this apparatus is not, and never was, designed to deal with international "terrorism". If that were its goal, its first task would be absolutely to secure the southern border of the United States, which it has never seriously attempted to do. Rather, it is being set up to deal with what the political-cum-financial Establishment anticipates (and I believe rightly so) will be massive social and political unrest bordering on chaos throughout America when the monetary and banking systems finally implode in the not-so-distant future-surely in hyperinflation, and probably in hyperinflation coupled with a gut-wrenching depression. Of these two problems, the second is actually the more dangerous...

Coming Military Crackdown; Dr. Edwin Vieira; failure; Jr; public sector; stop.

zero hedge Thu 2009-12-31 11:52 EST

Shadowstats' John Williams: Prepare For The Hyperinflationary Great Depression

John Williams, who runs the popular counter government data manipulation site Shadowstats, has thrown down the gauntlet to deflationists, and in an extensive report concludes that the probability of a hyperinflationary episode in America over the next year has reached critical levels. While the debate between deflationists and (hyper)inflationists has been a long and painful one, numerous events set off in motion by the Bernanke Fed (as a direct legacy of the Greenspan multi-decade period of cheap and boundless credit) may have well cast America as the unwilling protagonist in the sequel of the failed monetary policy economic experiment better known as Zimbabwe.

Hyperinflationary Great Depression; John Williams; prepared; ShadowStats; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Mon 2009-12-28 22:26 EST

Moody's CMBS Delinquency Tracker Hits Decade High

Yes, yes, everyone knows commercial real estate is a neutron bomb waiting to go off, and while many are yapping, nobody is doing jack. The Fed will deal with that implosion, the expectation goes, just as tidily as it dealt with the last bubble implosion...Delinquency increased 37 basis points in October, as measured by the Moody's Delinquency Tracker (DQT). The delinquency rate now stands at 4.01%, more than six times the rate seen at the same time last year. The rate has increased over 375 basis points from the low reached in July 2007, with further increases anticipated.

Moody's CMBS Delinquency Tracker Hits Decade High; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Thu 2009-12-17 10:37 EST

Is Selling US CDS A Risk-Free Way To Short The Dollar?

There has been much conjecture on whether using CDS is an effective way to hedge against US default risk. Many theoreticians, especially those of the post-March lows variety, have sprung up and are speculating that buying Credit Default Swaps on the US is ultimately a futile and pointless endeavor. The main argument: a US default would likely mean that interconnected dealers won't recognize contracts on a US default event, as they themselves will be out of business. Even if they continued to exist, like cockroaches in a postapocalyptic world, the collateral which backs derivatives is mostly US Treasurys: the same obligations that would end up being massively impaired...the US CDS seller syndicate could easily be one of the key sources of dollar short funding: with sellers pocketing euros and immediately going to market and selling dollars...a dollar-short unwind would probably have repercussions in the US CDS market. Not only would the dollar spike, but paradoxically US credit risk would probably widen dramatically...any unwind at the heart of the prevalent risk trade now: the massive dollar carry, would impact virtually every investment product, quite possibly in self-referential feedback loops. If correct, it merely shows how much more the Fed has at stake in keeping the dollar depressed than merely getting mom and pop to buy Amazon at $130/share. Losing control of the carry trade will be the systemic equivalent of allowing Lehman's book to be marked-to-market: a potentially complete collapse in systemic confidence, which would have such far ranging implications as the $300 trillion interest rate derivative market. And when sudden volatility reaches this product universe which is 6 times bigger than world GDP, the events from last year will seem like a dress rehearsal.

CDS; Dollar; Risk-Free Way; sell; short; Zero Hedge.

The Guardian World News Wed 2009-11-25 10:31 EST

What was really behind the crash?

John Cassidy

In an exclusive extract from his new book, John Cassidy explains why the huge salaries of Wall Street bosses created a culture that helped trigger the financial crisis...In the wake of last year's crash, even some top bankers have conceded that Wall Street remuneration schemes lead to excessive risk-taking...But without direct government involvement, the effort to reform Wall Street compensation won't survive the next market upturn. For although the financial sector as a whole has an interest in controlling rampant short-termism and irresponsible risk-taking, individual firms have an incentive to hire away star traders from any rivals that have introduced pay limits. Compensation reforms, therefore, are bound to break down. In this case, as in many others, the only way to reach a socially desirable outcome is to enforce compliance. And the only body that can do that is the government.

Crash; Guardian World News; really.

The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com Tue 2009-10-27 11:21 EDT

George Goehl: A New Crossover Hit: "Break Up the Big Banks"

George Goehl

We've reached an incredible moment when Alan Greenspan, Michael Moore, FDIC head Sheila Bair and Elizabeth Warren are all singing the same tune. These four, and others, have formed a distinct choir that is calling for breaking up the big banks.

big banks; break; com; full Feeds; George Goehl; HuffingtonPost; New Crossover Hit.

The Big Picture Sun 2009-10-11 17:12 EDT

Andy Xie: Why One Bubble Burst Deserves Another

...Lehman died in vain. Today, governments and central banks are celebrating their victorious stabilizing of the global financial system. To achieve the same, they could have saved Lehman with US$ 50 billion. Instead, they have spent trillions of dollars -- probably more than US$ 10 trillion when we get the final tally -- to reach the same objective. Meanwhile, a broader goal to reform the financial system has seen absolutely no progress...The lesson from the Lehman collapse seems to be, ``Take whatever you can and, when it crashes, you get to keep it.'' How governments and central banks have dealt with this bubble will encourage more people to join bubble making in the future.

Andy Xie; Big Picture; bubble burst deserves.

naked capitalism Tue 2009-09-22 13:02 EDT

Bank of America: 40% of Junk Bonds to Default by 2013

With more than half the corporate bonds rated junk, thanks to highly-levered takeovers, it wasn't hard to imagine that a protracted economic bad spell could lead to a lot of defaults...the novel feature of the binge of late-cycle merger loans, ``cov lite'' deals, will make the damage worse...the odds of a successful [re]structuring are lower, and more companies will wind up liquidating. Thus not only will defaults reach new post-war highs, but recoveries are likely to be lower.

2013; 40; America; bank; default; junk bonds; naked capitalism.

naked capitalism Sun 2009-09-20 11:53 EDT

Financial Reform: Not happening but the need is clear

Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns

If you are looking for reform in the financial sector, the moment has passed. And only to the degree that the underlying weaknesses in the global financial system are made manifest and threaten the economy will we see any appetite for reform amongst politicians. So, as I see it, the Obama administration has missed the opportunity for reform...Steve Keen, an Australian economist whose theories are heavily influenced by Hyman Minsky, has a cogent analysis of the true structural deficits in the current economic model...today we have finally reached a level of debt which is so great that another reflation is impossible. The collapse is now....unlike Keen, I am not convinced the time is now...What I would like to see is economic thought leaders developing a blueprint of a financial crisis strategy which tackles both the immediate crisis issues (liquidity) and the structural, regulatory and monetary issues that create financial volatility (solvency). When crisis does occur, I believe it will be systemic in nature due to the forces Keen so lucidly explains. Therefore, a blueprint which is 1) heavy on tactics and, 2) if implemented in a real systemic crisis, is likely to work, builds credibility. This is political capital which will carry over to longer-term preventive strategies and reforms.

clear; Financial reform; happened; naked capitalism; needed.

Calculated Risk Fri 2009-09-04 19:01 EDT

Junk Bond Default Rate Passes 10 Percent

CalculatedRisk

From Rolfe Winkler at Reuters: U.S. junk bond default rate rises to 10.2 pct -SP The U.S. junk bond default rate rose to 10.2 percent in August from 9.4 percent in July ... Standard & Poor's data showed on Thursday. The default rate is expected to rise to 13.9 percent by July 2010 and could reach as high as 18 percent if economic conditions are worse than expected, SP said in a statement. ... In another sign of corporate distress, the rating agency has downgraded $2.9 trillion of company debt year to date, up from $1.9 trillion in the same period last year. Bad loans everywhere ...

Calculated Risk; Junk Bond Default Rate Passes 10 Percent.

The Guardian World News Sun 2009-08-30 14:43 EDT

Iceland votes to repay UK savings

Iceland's parliament today approved a plan to repay Britain and the Netherlands £3.4bn they used to compensate depositors after the collapse of an Icelandic bank. Johanna Sigurdardottir, the prime minister, said the "Icesave" bill was an important step in her country's economic recovery, paving the way for it to receive financial help from the International Monetary Fund and other countries and keeping open the option to join the EU. "It's obviously best for all three nations to reach an amicable agreement on this for it is in no one's interest to see Iceland economically unable to meet its obligations," Sigurdardottir told Reuters after the vote, which followed an acrimonious national debate. Critics objected to paying for mistakes made by private banks under the watch of other governments and for...

Guardian World News; Iceland votes; repay UK savings.

Thu 2009-07-30 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Guest Post: Chasing The Shadow Of Money

-- Friedrich Hayek's seminal Prices and Production, published in the depression days of 1935...discerned the critical role of the shadow banking system long before the advent of securitization, derivatives and other products that today have caused the monetary supply problem to reach a screaming crescendo...shadow money and credit are not just the dynamo that drives the free market, but also its Achilles heel

chasing; Guest Post; money; naked capitalism; shadows.

Wed 2009-02-11 00:00 EST

Calculated Risk: Roubini: U.S. Credit Losses may reach $3.6 Trillion

3; 6 trillion; Calculated Risk; reaching; Roubini; U.S. Credit Losses.

Sun 2009-02-01 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: Goldman: Bank Rescue May Reach $4 Trillion (and "Bad Bank" Issues)

``watch as [banks] steal trillions from the yet-unborn. Future sonograms will show the shackles around their tiny ankles.''

4 trillion; bad banks; Bank rescued; Goldman; issue; naked capitalism; reaching.

Fri 2008-11-07 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: US Hedge Fund Withdrawals Reach $43 Billion in September

2008-10-16

43; Hedge Fund Withdrawals Reach; naked capitalism; September.

Tue 2008-08-19 00:00 EDT

Winter (Economic & Market) Watch >> Houston We Have a Problem

Winter (Economic & Market) Watch >> Houston We Have a Problem; "key data point to watch in terms of a bottom in housing prices is the vacancy rate. Once this reaches about 1.75% [currently almost 3%] it indicates that housing is being used for its actual purpose, namely as occupied shelter."

economic; Houston; Market; problem; watch; winter.

Sun 2008-08-03 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Credit Crunch Reaches Critical Mass

Credit Crunch Reaches Critical Mass; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Wed 2008-07-23 00:00 EDT

Calculated Risk: Report: Deal Reached on Housing Legislation

"Treasury would be barred from providing aid that would cause a breach in the federal debt ceiling"

Calculated Risk; deal reach; House Legislation; report.

Tue 2008-05-06 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Goldman Forecasts Oil to Reach $150-$200 a Barrel

150; 200; barrel; Goldman Forecasts Oil; naked capitalism; reaching.