Sat 2010-09-25 11:02 EDT

Where is the World Economy Headed?

Michael Hudson

...financial maneuvering and debt leverage play the role that military conquest did in times past. Its aim is still to control land, basic infrastructure and the economic surplus -- and also to gain control of national savings, commercial banking and central bank policy...Indebted ``host economies'' are in a similar position to that of defeated countries. Their economic surplus is transferred abroad financially, while locally, debtors lose sovereignty over their own financial, economic and tax policy. Public infrastructure is sold off to foreign buyers, on credit and therefore paying interest and fees that are expensed as tax-deductible and paid to foreigners. The Washington Consensus applauds this pro-rentier policy. Its neoliberal ideology holds that the most efficient path to wealth is to shift economic planning out of the hands of government into those of bankers and money managers in charge of privatizing and financializing the economy. Almost without anyone noticing, this view is replacing the classical law of nations based on the idea of sovereignty over debt and financial policy, tariff and tax policy...Bankers in the North look upon any economic surplus -- real estate rent, corporate cash flow or even the government's taxing power or ability to sell off public enterprises -- as a source of revenue to pay interest on debts...The original liberals -- from Adam Smith and the Physiocrats through John Stuart Mill and even Winston Churchill -- urged that the tax system be based on the economic rent of land so as to keep down the price of housing (and hence labor's cost of living). The Progressive Era followed this principle by aiming to keep natural monopolies such as transportation, communication and even banks (or at least, free credit creation) in the public domain. But the post-1980 world has encouraged private owners to buy them on credit and extract economic rent, thereby shifting the tax burden onto labor, industry and agriculture -- while concentrating wealth, first on credit and then via the enormous recent public bailouts of this failed financial debt pyramiding and deregulation...At issue is the concept of free markets. Are they to be free from monopoly and special privilege, or free for the occupying financial invaders and speculators?...

World Economy Headed.

naked capitalism Wed 2010-09-08 17:27 EDT

Economic consequences of speculative side bets -- The case of naked CDS

Yeon-Koo Che and Rajiv Sethi

...We argue that the existence of naked credit default swaps has significant effects on the terms of financing, the likelihood of default, and the size and composition of investment expenditures. And we identify three mechanisms through which these broader consequences of speculative side bets arise: collateral effects, rollover risk, and project choice...the existence of zero-sum side bets on default has major economic repercussions. These contracts induce investors who are optimistic about the future revenues of borrowers, and would therefore be natural purchasers of debt, to sell credit protection instead. This diverts their capital away from potential borrowers and channels it into collateral to support speculative positions. As a consequence, the marginal bond buyer is less optimistic about the borrower's prospects, and demands a higher interest rate in order to lend. This can result in an increased likelihood of default, and the emergence of self-fulfilling paths in which firms are unable to rollover their debt, even when such trajectories would not arise in the absence of credit derivatives. And it can influence the project choices of firms, leading not only to lower levels of investment overall but also in some cases to the selection of riskier ventures with lower expected returns...

Case; economic consequences; naked capitalism; Naked CDS; speculative side bets.

naked capitalism Mon 2010-07-19 17:07 EDT

Is the SEC Settlement Really a Win for Goldman?

Tom Adams and Yves Smith

...Conventional wisdom in the financial media is that the settlement announced by the SEC over its lawsuit on a Goldman 2007 Abacus CDO is a home run for Goldman. But a closer reading suggests that Goldman's victory is qualified, and the enthusiastic press response is in large measure due to the firm's skillful manipulation of perceptions...it is hard to see how anything in the settlement, if affirmed, would be negative for private parties considering lawsuits against sellers of CDOs...we imagine potential CDO investors will be mightily encouraged that Goldman ended up returning the full amount of investment to the one true third party investor in the deal -- IKB...An investor considering bringing an action against a bank that sold them a CDO that failed (meaning virtually all 2006 and 2007 ``mezzanine'' CDOs) would probably be encouraged that a bank was required to pay such a large amount for making inaccurate statements about the true nature of the CDO...Plaintiffs who sue CDO sellers have good reason to be optimistic...The settlement thus tarnishes the popular myth that the subprime shorts were insightful outsiders who executed ``the greatest trade ever''...the SEC has demonstrated that investors in such a CDO can win a recovery as a result of such inaccurate statements.

Goldman; naked capitalism; SEC Settlement Really; Wins.

naked capitalism Mon 2010-07-19 16:57 EDT

58% of Real Income Growth Since 1976 Went to Top 1% (and Why That Matters)

...the new program was to reduce workers' bargaining power, both by combating unions, and by tolerating un and underemployment. Rising worker wages had been seen as crucial to greater prosperity; it was quietly abandoned as a policy goal. But this has profound implications. As rising income inequality demonstrates, the benefits of growth accrued substantially to those at the very top...much of America seems blithely unaware of our diminished role in the world. Likewise, financiers, having wrested massive concessions from national governments (bailouts with almost no concessions demanded of them) if anything view themselves as even more influential than before the crisis. In other words, both the distorted self image of key players and a reluctance to admit the deep seated nature of the problems make a happy resolution unlikely.

1976 Went; 58; matter; naked capitalism; real income growth; Top 1.

zero hedge Sat 2010-05-22 13:41 EDT

Albert Edwards: Europe Is On The Edge Of A Deflationary Precipice That Will, Paradoxically, Usher In 20-30% Inflation

A few days ago we pointed out that the latest Japanese GDP deflator came at multi-decade lows, this despite years of printing, pumping and other -ings. Today, Albert Edwards takes the observation of rampant regional deflation and concludes precisely what we have long claimed, that once rampant deflation is finally acknowledged by central bankers everywhere, and they are now running out for time, their only natural response to preserve the system will be to do what Japan has been doing for decades (successfully, they will claim) and respond with the most extreme round of monetization ever seen, "inevitably driving us towards out ultimate destination - 1970's style 20-30% inflation."...

20 30; Albert Edwards; deflationary precipice; edge; Europe; Inflation; paradox; usher; Zero Hedge.

Wed 2010-05-19 13:01 EDT

billy blog >> Blog Archive >> The origins of the economic crisis

A good way to understand the origins of the current economic crisis in Australia is to examine the historical behaviour of key macroeconomic aggregates. The previous Federal Government claimed they were responsibly managing the fiscal and monetary parameters and creating a resilient competitive economy. This was a spurious claim they were in fact setting Australia up for crisis. The reality is that the previous government created an economy which was always going to crash badly. The global nature of the crisis has arisen because over the last 2-3 decades most Western governments including the Australian government succumbed to the neo-liberal myth of budget austerity and introduced policies which allowed the destructive dynamics of the capitalist system to create an economic structure that was ultimately unsustainable. Once this instability began to manifest it was only a matter of time before the system imploded -- as we are now seeing...

Billy Blog; blogs Archive; Economic Crisis; originally.

Jesse's Café Américain Sun 2010-05-09 08:30 EDT

Guest Post: The Perils of Credit Money Systems Managed by Private Corporations

Jesse

...The paper system being founded on public confidence and having of itself no intrinsic value, is liable to great and sudden fluctuations, thereby rendering property insecure and the wages of labor unsteady and uncertain.The corporations which create the paper money cannot be relied upon to keep the circulating medium uniform in amount. In times of prosperity, when confidence is high, they are tempted by the prospect of gain or by the influence of those who hope to profit by it to extend their issues of paper beyond the bounds of discretion and the reasonable demands of business. And when these issues have been pushed on from day to day until the public confidence is at length shaken, then a reaction takes place, and they immediately withdraw the credits they have given; suddenly curtail their issues; and produce an unexpected and ruinous contraction of the circulating medium which is felt by the whole community. The banks, by this means, save themselves, and the mischievous consequences of their imprudence or cupidity are visited upon the public. Nor does the evil stop here. These ebbs and flows in the currency and these indiscreet extensions of credit naturally engender a spirit of speculation injurious to the habits and character of the people...Recent events have proved that the paper money system of this country may be used as an engine to undermine your free institutions; and that those who desire to engross all power in the hands of the few and to govern by corruption or force are aware of its power and prepared to employ it... Andrew Jackson, Farewell Address, March 4, 1837

Credit Money Systems Managed; Guest Post; Jesse's Café Américain; peril; private corporations.

Tue 2010-04-20 10:05 EDT

The Search for a Reserve Currency

Gregory R. Copley

...good governance as an essential component of currency value and the trust in that currency can transform overnight, just as we witnessed the post-World War II collapse of sterling, and, now, the shakiness of trust in the US dollar (despite the reality that, at $14.2-trillion in value in 2008, is the world's largest). The age of the US dollar as the global reserve currency isn't yet over, but it's threatened, and the trend toward a flight from the dollar (despite occasional returns to it) is evident. At present, however, the dollar is shored up because in many respects there's nothing of its stature ready to replace it...major trade will gradually become more bilateral in nature, based on very real mutual trust in each other's currencies or goods. This will be a significant limiting factor in trade, and will make bilateral balances of greater interest than in the past when trade balances of a bilateral nature ``washed out'' in the great mixing bowl of the global banking system...

reserve currency; search.

Fri 2010-04-02 19:12 EDT

Shopaholic China: China's Global Shopping Spree: Is the World's Future Resource Map Tilting East?

Michael Klare, TomDispatch

...anticipating the kind of voracious resource consumption that goes with anticipated future growth, and worried about the availability of adequate supplies, giant Chinese energy and manufacturing firms -- many of them state-owned -- have been on a veritable spending binge when it comes to locking down resource supplies for the twenty-first century. They have acquired oil fields, natural gas reserves, mines, pipelines, refineries, and other resource assets in a global buying spree of almost unprecedented proportions...

China's Global Shopping Spree; Shopaholic China; world's future resource map tilting east.

Sun 2010-03-21 09:58 EDT

Economist.comNatural gas | An unconventional glut | Economist.comNatural gas | An unconventional glut | Economist.com

...North America has an unforeseen surfeit of natural gas. The United States' purchases of LNG have dwindled. It has enough gas under its soil to inspire dreams of self-sufficiency. Other parts of the world may also be sitting on lots of gas. Those in the vanguard of this global gas revolution say it will transform the battle against carbon, threaten coal's domination of electricity generation and, by dramatically reducing the power of exporters of oil and conventional gas, turn the geopolitics of energy on its head...

com; comNatural gas; Economist; unconventional glut.

naked capitalism Fri 2010-03-19 15:02 EDT

SEC, Fed Alerted By Merrill of Lehman Balance Sheet Games in March 2008

...The Valukas report shows both regulators were monitoring Lehman on a day-to-day basis shortly after Bear's failure. They recognized that it has a massive hole in its balance sheet, yet took an inertial course of action. They pressured a clearly in denial Fuld to raise capital (and Andrew Ross Sorkin's accounts of those efforts make it clear they were likely to fail) and did not take steps towards any other remedy until the firm was on the brink of collapse (the effort to force a private sector bailout as part of a good bank/bad bank resolution)...Merrill warned both the SEC and the Fed in March 2008 that Lehman was engaging in balance sheet window dressing of a serious enough nature for it to put pressure on Merrill (as in it was making Merrill look worse relative to the obviously impaired Lehman)...

Fed Alerted; Lehman Balance Sheet Games; March 2008; Merrill; naked capitalism; SEC.

Sun 2010-01-31 12:00 EST

Does Economics Violate the Laws of Physics?: Scientific American

SYRACUSE, N.Y.--The financial crisis and subsequent global recession have led to much soul-searching among economists, the vast majority of whom never saw it coming. But were their assumptions and models wrong only because of minor errors or because today's dominant economic thinking violates the laws of physics? ... "Real economics is the study of how people transform nature to meet their needs," said Charles Hall, professor of systems ecology at SUNY-ESF and organizer of both gatherings in Syracuse. "Neoclassical economics is inconsistent with the laws of thermodynamics."

Economics Violate; Law; physical; Scientific American.

Taibblog Thu 2010-01-07 18:20 EST

Fannie, Freddie, and the New Red and Blue

Matt Taibbi

...what we've learned in the last few years as one scandal after another spilled onto the front pages is that the bubble economies of the last two decades were not merely monstrous Ponzi schemes that destroyed trillions in wealth while making a small handful of people rich. They were also a profound expression of the fundamentally criminal nature of our political system, in which state power/largess and the private pursuit of (mostly short-term) profit were brilliantly fused in a kind of ongoing theft scheme that sought to instant-cannibalize all the wealth America had stored up during its postwar glory, in the process keeping politicians in office and bankers in beach homes while continually moving the increasingly inevitable disaster to the future.

blue; Fannie; Freddie; New red; Taibblog.

Jesse's Café Américain Mon 2009-12-28 16:27 EST

Monetization: Treasury Adds $400 Billion in Bailouts for Fannie and Freddie

Jesse

What's another $400 Billion in monetization so that Fannie and Freddie can keep buying up mortgage debt? Timmy and Ben can continue to distribute dollars even as they approach a virtual insolvency because they can create them, seemingly out of nothing. The payment for their dollar debt is their creature -- dollars. But they cannot hand out endless amounts of nature's wealth, things like oil, gold, grains, and silver except as they may possess them by industry, force, or fraud.

400; Bailout; Fannie; Freddie; Jesse's Café Américain; monetize; Treasury Adds.

Debtor's prison Mon 2009-12-21 20:17 EST

Transitioning to a Global Credit Regime Part I

MAAA

...this is the first in a series of posts that will aim to discuss and dissect the more likely nature, features and requirements of the global monetary and debt system that will emerge once the current one disintegrates. To be clear, we define the current system as consisting of fiat sovereign currencies collaterized by sovereign (and now private) debt, primarily from the US. It is precisely this system that we have come to believe is unsustainable and will eventually crash in what many people call the Dollar Event Horizon (DEH). What emerges after DEH must therefore not be of a sovereign nature, but of a global one; of that we are certain.

Debtor s Prison; Global Credit Regime Part; transition.

Jesse's Café Américain Wed 2009-12-02 18:58 EST

The 38 Year Cycle in US Monetary History

Jesse

..the longer cycle of 38 years and some others, is that they involve what people call 'generational memory.' People as a group essentially forget the lessons of the past, and human nature being what it is, events based on bad judgement and reckless behaviour seem to recur at these intervals. If there was any 'tell' for the current crisis, it was the general overturning of the safeguards for the financial system that had been put in place in the aftermath of the financial panic of 1929 and the Great Depression that followed, culminating in the eventual overturn of Glass-Steagall and the ascendancy of extreme leverage using exotic, unregulated instruments. This is why we call this a generational change. This is no slump, no recession. And it is far from over. We are experiencing some major changes that are easily lost when one only looks at the day to day moves, listens to the description of events on the mainstream media, and of course, have a lack of memory, a knowledge of history, of things that have happened to their grandfathers and great grandfathers. The arrogant ignorance of so many still in place is a sure sign of greater chastisement to come, until the lessons of history are learned again, and the system is brought back into a sustainable balance.

38 Year Cycle; Jesse's Café Américain; monetary History.

zero hedge Wed 2009-11-25 10:10 EST

Shadow Banking Topology

A new paper by the IMF provides much needed insights into the nature of Asset Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP) conduits, which amounted to $1.2 trillion in June 2007, a subset of the broader Commercial Paper shadow asset class (which as Bill Dudley discussed a week ago, hit a peak of $2.3 trillion), and the product's role in funding imbalances (and maturity mismatch) at global banks courtesy of the shadow banking system. However, the most useful observation of the paper's addenda include insights into the global shadow banking system's holdings, as well as its changing composition over time, the collapse of the ABS securitization market whose reincarnation via TALF is critical for preventing the CRE market's implosion in 2012, and lastly a comprehensive overview of the entire shadow banking system...

Shadow Banking Topology; Zero Hedge.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Tue 2009-11-03 20:30 EST

Is Debt-Deflation Just Beginning?

Michael Shedlock

You should not be afraid of deflation. You should be afraid of policies attempting to fight it. Deflation (rather price deflation) is actually the natural state of affairs. As productivity increases, more goods and services are produced relative to the population and prices would therefore be expected to drop. It is the Fed, along with misguided Keynesian and Monetarist economists who think falling prices are a bad thing. Who amongst us does not like falling prices (except of course on things we own like houses, but even then who is not sick of higher property taxes that result)? The reality is inflation benefits those with first access to money. Guess who that is? The answer is easy: banks, government, and the already wealthy. Inflation is actually a tax on the middle class and the poor who get access to money last. During the housing bubble, by the time the poor could get access to to money easily, it was far too late to buy. Given that inflation benefits those with first access to money, any targeted inflation at all is morally wrong.

Debt-Deflation Just Beginning; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

zero hedge Sun 2009-10-11 16:45 EDT

Interview With A Mad Hedge Fund Trader

...Mad Hedge: Stay away from natural gas. The volatility will kill you. If you are a masochist, then buy it only when it's cheap, on big dips, in the $3/MBTU range. In the last three years, thanks to the new ``fracting'' technology used in oil shales, we have discovered a 100 year supply of natural gas sitting under the US, and the producers have not been able to cut back fast enough. So now we have a supply glut, and we are almost out of storage. This is what took us down from $13 to $2.40 in 18 months. The lack of hurricanes has not helped demand either. Producers have been cutting back like crazy, trying to balance supply and demand, with a breakeven point of $2. They need a cold winter to help bring things back into balance. If the industry gets organized, then gas can become the 20 year bridge we need, until energy alternatives kick in. That makes me a big supporter of the ``Pickens Plan.''

interview; Mad Hedge Fund Trader; Zero Hedge.

Jesse's Café Américain Sat 2009-10-10 11:52 EDT

Beta Monster: The Most Dangerous Banks In the World

Jesse

The most leveraged bank by far is the-investment-bank-which-must-not-be-named. It is followed by J.P. Morgan on a percentage basis, but JPM is far larger nominally than these charts indicate because of its much larger capital base. Its in the nature of the difference between a cardshark (GS) and a pawnshop (JPM). Or perhaps just the capital requirements of the short versus the long con. [Goldman Sachs astronomical credit exposure, trading revenue, derivatives exposure]

Beta Monsters; Dangerous Banks; Jesse's Café Américain; world.

zero hedge Tue 2009-09-22 16:22 EDT

Top Goldman Lobbyist Barred From Communicating With House's Financial Services Committee

In a rare example of testicular fortitude, Barney Frank has "banished" Goldman's Michael Pease from communicating with the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee. According to Reuters, the Goldmanite, and former committee staffer, has been "asked" not to interfere with the Congressional panel for a period of 12 months. According to Barney Frank aide Steven Adamske: "Mr. Paese left our offices in September 2008, and was not allowed to communicate with any committee members or staff for a period of one year due to normal ethics restrictions that apply to all House and Senate employees. Out of an abundance of caution due to the nature of financial regulation reform, the chairman has extended Mr. Paese's recusal for another year." Pease "was the committee's deputy staff director before he quit to work for the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association as a lobbyist. Goldman hired him in April.

communications; House's Financial Services Committee; Top Goldman Lobbyist Barred; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Sun 2009-09-20 11:53 EDT

Financial Reform: Not happening but the need is clear

Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns

If you are looking for reform in the financial sector, the moment has passed. And only to the degree that the underlying weaknesses in the global financial system are made manifest and threaten the economy will we see any appetite for reform amongst politicians. So, as I see it, the Obama administration has missed the opportunity for reform...Steve Keen, an Australian economist whose theories are heavily influenced by Hyman Minsky, has a cogent analysis of the true structural deficits in the current economic model...today we have finally reached a level of debt which is so great that another reflation is impossible. The collapse is now....unlike Keen, I am not convinced the time is now...What I would like to see is economic thought leaders developing a blueprint of a financial crisis strategy which tackles both the immediate crisis issues (liquidity) and the structural, regulatory and monetary issues that create financial volatility (solvency). When crisis does occur, I believe it will be systemic in nature due to the forces Keen so lucidly explains. Therefore, a blueprint which is 1) heavy on tactics and, 2) if implemented in a real systemic crisis, is likely to work, builds credibility. This is political capital which will carry over to longer-term preventive strategies and reforms.

clear; Financial reform; happened; naked capitalism; needed.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Sun 2009-09-20 11:08 EDT

Bank of America, Citigroup, Credit Card Defaults Soar To New Highs

Michael Shedlock

Last month's improvements in credit card defaults appears to be an outlier. Credit card defaults have resumed their natural tendency to track rising unemployment...Unemployment is likely to rise for another year, then flatten out so it is likely that card defaults keep rising for quite some time.

America; bank; Citigroup; Credit Card Defaults Soar; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; new highs.

Thu 2009-09-17 09:31 EDT

Why capitalism fails - The Boston Globe

Stephen Mihm

Mainstream economics rediscovers Hyman Minsky; ``Instability,'' he wrote, ``is an inherent and inescapable flaw of capitalism.''...Minsky drew his own, far darker, lessons from Keynes's landmark writings, which dealt not only with the problem of unemployment, but with money and banking...Minsky argued that Keynes's collective work amounted to a powerful argument that capitalism was by its very nature unstable and prone to collapse. Far from trending toward some magical state of equilibrium, capitalism would inevitably do the opposite. It would lurch over a cliff...Minsky spent the last years of his life, in the early 1990s, warning of the dangers of securitization and other forms of financial innovation, but few economists listened. Nor did they pay attention to consumers' and companies' growing dependence on debt, and the growing use of leverage within the financial system... Minsky...argued for a ``bubble-up'' approach, sending money to the poor and unskilled first. The government - or what he liked to call ``Big Government'' - should become the ``employer of last resort,'' he said, offering a job to anyone who wanted one at a set minimum wage. It would be paid to workers who would supply child care, clean streets, and provide services that would give taxpayers a visible return on their dollars. In being available to everyone, it would be even more ambitious than the New Deal, sharply reducing the welfare rolls by guaranteeing a job for anyone who was able to work. Such a program would not only help the poor and unskilled, he believed, but would put a floor beneath everyone else's wages too, preventing salaries of more skilled workers from falling too precipitously, and sending benefits up the socioeconomic ladder.

Boston Globe; Capitalism Failed.

Minyanville Sat 2009-09-05 11:47 EDT

Why Hanging On to UNG Is Risky Business

People have been up in arms for months now about the troubles at the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) the ETF designed to track the price of natural gas. And as far as I can tell rightly so. ETFs were meant to be a nearly frictionless relatively simple alternative to the clunky closed-end funds (CEFs) and managed products that our parents and grandparents had to contend with. But UNG recently traded at a 19% premium to its net asset value (NAV) -- behavior far more fitting a CEF...But since hand-wringing over UNG seems to be the consensus approach, here's a contrarian thought: UNG has, to date, tracked natural gas futures (NG) fairly well.

hang; Minyanville; Risky Business; UNG.

Minyanville Fri 2009-09-04 19:31 EDT

Five Reasons to Stay Cautious with UNG

I'll be staying away from this market for now. However, beware that if hurricane season isn't disruptive and the winter is mild, we can probably expect a major decline in NG prices all along the curve early next year as inventory levels are near record highs and available storage is virtually tapped out. This could devastate the natural gas producer stocks...Many investors think that various natural gas plays in the master limited partnerships (MLP) field (pipelines, processors, etc.) are immune to fluctuations in the price of natural gas. In the short term, this may be true in many cases depending on the type of contracts. However, it's not true in the medium term. I'd be wary of this space at this time as any sort of alteration in pricing of contracts will almost certainly elicit cuts in distributions to shareholders. And since virtually all owners of these stocks buy them for the distributions, any cuts in distributions will likely devastate the share prices -- far beyond what would be theoretically warranted.

Minyanville; reasons; stay cautious; UNG.

Minyanville Thu 2009-09-03 11:31 EDT

Tred Carefully When Trading UNG

James Kostohryz

The collapse of the natural gas market in the US has been breathtaking. And if you need anything else to worry about United States Natural Gas (UNG) -- which is in the midst of a massive liquidation -- is selling at a premium somewhere in the neighborhood of 20% relative to the spot price of the commodity. Thus the end to the carnage is not apparent.

Minyanville; Trading UNG; Tred Carefully.