Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Fri 2010-07-16 18:59 EDT

Expect Second-Half Housing and Durable Goods Crash

Michael Shedlock

Those who think manufacturing is going to lead the way to a sustainable recovery need to think again. Data suggest durable goods sales are about to collapse...if consumers are not going to be buying appliances (or cars according recent surveys), and if commercial real estate is going to remain in the dumps, technology spending is likely unsustainable, and states will be laying off workers to balance budgets, pray tell where is the second half growth or jobs coming from? Here's a hint: Don't expect miracles from further stimulus either. The current Congress is not much in the mood and the next Congress is likely to be downright hostile to significantly more deficit spending. All things considered, earnings estimates and the stock market are both priced well beyond perfection, as are forward GDP estimates.

Durable Goods Crash; expectations; Housing; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Calculated Risk Tue 2009-09-08 14:43 EDT

Survey: ``The Anguish of Unemployment''

CalculatedRisk

Unemployment survey by the Rutgers University John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development: A comprehensive national survey conducted among 1,200 Americans nationwide who have been unemployed and looking for a job in the past 12 months, including 894 who are still jobless, portrays a shaken, traumatized people coping with serious financial and psychological effects from an economic downturn of epic proportion.

Anguish; Calculated Risk; survey; unemployment.

naked capitalism Fri 2009-09-04 18:45 EDT

Stiglitz Doubts Recovery Can Be Sustained

Joseph Stiglitz takes issue with the view of economists (well, economists surveyed by Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, which not surprisingly have a Pollyannish optimistic streak) that the economy is in or on the verge of a recovery. ``In most quarters, there is a feeling we should move away from the dollar system. The question is do we do it in an orderly way, or a chaotic way,'' Stiglitz said. ``The size of the deficit and the size of the balance sheet of the Fed have just increased the anxiety and the desire that something be done...'' Between the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of Lehman Brothers was ``the short period of American triumphalism, where we dominated the global scene. That period is over,'' Stiglitz said.

naked capitalism; Stiglitz Doubts Recovery; sustained.

Jesse's Café Américain Sun 2009-08-30 11:59 EDT

US Equity Markets Look Dangerously Wobbly As Insiders Sell In Record Numbers

Jesse

"Investors Intelligence's latest survey of advisory services showed an impressive 51% bullish and a meager 19% bearish...the spread hasn't been that wide since November 2007." Alan Abelson, Barrons, Aug. 29, 2009Next week we move into September, the riskiest month of the year for financial markets, with the federals escalating preparations for a flu pandemic, while Congress considers legislation... ``selling by corporate insiders in August has surged to $6.1 billion, the highest amount since May 2008. The ratio of insider selling to insider buying hit 30.6, the highest level since TrimTabs began tracking the data in 2004.''

Equity Markets Look Dangerously Wobbly; Insider sell; Jesse's Café Américain; record number.

Mon 2007-07-30 00:00 EDT

Current 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages (FRMs) from the HSH Survey

Current 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages; FRMs; HSH Survey.