naked capitalism Mon 2010-09-20 19:10 EDT

American Businesses and Consumers are NOT Deleveraging ... They Are Going On One Last Binge

Everyone knows that the American consumer is deleveraging ... living more frugally, and paying down debt. Right?...Karl Denninger notes: ``From a peak in 2005 of $13.1 trillion in equity in residential real estate, that value has now diminished by approximately half to $6.67 trillion!Yet outstanding household debt has in fact increased from $11.7 trillion to $13.5 trillion today. Folks, those who claim that we have ``de-levered'' are lying. Not only has the consumer not de-levered but business is actually gearing up -- putting the lie to any claim that they have ``record cash.'' Well, yes, but they also have record debt, and instead of decreasing leverage levels they're adding to them'' ...the government has done everything it can to prevent deleveraging by the financial companies, and to re-lever up the economy to dizzying levels.

American businesses; Binge; consumer; deleveraging; Go; naked capitalism.

Mon 2010-09-20 09:49 EDT

Escaping the Sovereign Debt Trap

Ellen Brown

...Debt forces individuals into financial slavery to the banks, and it forces governments to relinquish their sovereignty to their creditors, which in the end are also private banks, the originators of all non-cash money today. In Great Britain, where the Bank of England is owned by the government, 97% of the money supply is issued privately by banks as loans. In the U.S., where the central bank is owned by a private consortium of banks, the percentage is even higher. The Federal Reserve issues Federal Reserve Notes (or dollar bills) and lends them to other banks, which then lend them at interest to individuals, businesses, and local and federal governments...n the past there have been successful models in which the government itself issued the national currency, whether as paper notes or as the credit of the nation. A stellar example of this enlightened approach to money and credit was the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, which operated successfully as a government-owned bank for most of the 20th century. Rather than issuing ``sovereign debt'' -- federal bonds indebting the nation to pay at interest in perpetuity -- the government through the Commonwealth Bank issued ``sovereign credit,'' the credit of the nation advanced to the government and its constituents... The Commonwealth Bank was able to achieve so much with so little because both its first Governor, Denison Miller, and its first and most ardent proponent, King O'Malley, had been bankers themselves and knew the secret of banking: that banks create the ``money'' they lend simply by writing accounting entries into the deposit accounts of borrowers...Today there is renewed interest in reviving a publicly-owned bank in Australia on the Commonwealth Bank model. The United States and other countries would do well to consider this option too.

escape; Sovereign Debt Trap.

naked capitalism Mon 2010-09-20 09:24 EDT

Theoclassical Law and Economics Makes the Law an Ass

William Black

...The Supreme Court's Citizens United decision allows businesses to make unlimited political contributions to judges and politicians. When judges are elected, the need for these contributions inherently turns judges into politicians. Sympathetic judges are corrupt businesses' most valuable allies. Corporations and their senior officials can commit civil or criminal wrongs with impunity if their case is assigned to a friendly judge...Yves noted that the Chamber of Commerce was leading the effort to elect CEO-friendly judges...The Chamber distributed a plan for a hostile takeover of university departments of economics and finance (and the courts and the media) proposed by Lewis Powell (the soon to be Supreme Court Justice). Extremely conservative ``law and economics'' proved to be central to this effort. The law and economics movement began as a non-ideological approach to explaining and aiding judicial decision-making. The scholars leading the movement had diverse views. The Olin Foundation transformed law and economics into an ultra ideological field dominated almost exclusively by passionate opponents of government ``interference'' in ``free enterprise.'' Olin specialized in creating well-funded positions in academia for scholars that had an ``Austrian'' approach to economics...Law and economics has, for over two decades, been dominated by theoclassical economic dogmas that have proved false...There are now tens of thousands of law and economics graduates that have taken a class in theoclassical law and economics. They were taught that theoclassical economic assertions (often falsified decades ago) were objective facts devoid of ideological content. They have been taught that economics has proven that regulation is unnecessary, hopeless, and harmful...

ass; economics make; Law; naked capitalism; Theoclassical Law.

naked capitalism Thu 2010-09-16 17:05 EDT

Elizabeth Warren on Way to Being Sidelined as Head of Consumer Protection Agency, Relegated to ``Advisor'' Role

The body language of the Administration has been clear from the outset on the question of whether Elizabeth Warren would get its nomination to head of the new financial services consumer protection agency. Despite the occasional public remark regarding her undeniable competence, which really amounted to damning her with faint praise, Team Obama has never been on board with the idea...The reality is that the Administration was never going to appoint her; the only question is whether she can be kept in their orbit and not be a net negative as far as their dubious priorities are concerned...the Warren marginalization isn't about personalities, although the powers that be love to pigeonhole thorns in their side that way. The clashes reflect fundamental differences in philosophy. Geithner, the Administration that stands behind him, and Dodd all are staunch defenders of our rapacious financial services industry, even though they make occasional moves to disguise that fact. Warren, by contrast, is clearly a skeptic, and a dangerous one to boot, because she understands the abuses well and is able to communicate effectively with the public. Expect Warren to be pushed further to the sidelines, just as Paul Volcker has been (oh, and pulled out of mothballs when the Administration desperately needed to create the appearance it really might be tough on banks)...

advisors; consumers protection Agency; Elizabeth Warren; Head; naked capitalism; relegation; role; sidelined; way.

PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM Thu 2010-09-16 16:15 EDT

CREDIT SUISSE: 6 BULLISH FACTS ABOUT HOUSING

TPC

Here's a contrarian view for you. Credit Suisse says the fears about housing are well overdone. In their analysis they cite 6 different bullish factors that should help to bolster house prices in the USA...The government now owns or guarantees about 70% of US mortgage debt...Valuation is extremely cheap on all measures...Delinquency ratios, charge-off and foreclosure rates seem to have peaked...Housing starts are about 1m below trend demand of housing units -- based on household formation and replacement demand... * Distressed sales (short-sales, foreclosures and REO sales) are less than a third of the total, after peaking at almost half in 2009...Housing as a proportion of GDP is now just 2.2%, compared with a long-run average of 4.5%...

6 BULLISH FACTS; Credit Suisse; Housing; PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM.

Wed 2010-08-25 08:41 EDT

2008 Bailout Counter-Factual | The Big Picture

Barry Ritholtz

...My disagreement with the Zandi-Blinder report is not its theoretical underpinnings -- it is by definition a hypothetical counter-factual. Rather, it is the counter-factual Blinder/Zandi chose to use: ``What would the economy look like now if we had done nothing?'' Instead, I propose a better counter-factual: ``What if we had done the right thing, instead of nothing -- or the wrong thing?''...In my counter factual, the bailouts did not occur. Instead of the Japanese model, the US government went the Swedish route of banking crises: They stepped in with temporary nationalizations, prepackaged bankruptcies, and financial reorganizations; banks write down all of their bad debt, they sell off the paper. In the end, the goal is to spin out clean, well financed, toxic-asset-free banks into the public markets...One by one, we should have put each insolvent bank into receivership, cleaned up the balance sheer, sold off the bad debts for 15-50 cents on the dollar, fired the management, wiped out the shareholders, and spun out the proceeds, with the bondholders taking the haircut, and the taxpayers on the hook for precisely zero dollars. Citi, Bank of America, Wamu, Wachovia, Countrywide, Lehman, Merrill, Morgan, etc. all of them should have been handled this way...

2008 Bailout Counter-Factual; Big Picture.

Tue 2010-08-24 20:09 EDT

EconomicPolicyJournal.com: Is China Executing a Cunning Sun Tzu Strategy to Destroy the Dollar and Cause an Upward Price Explosion in Gold?

Elizabeth Brinsden

Could China be coveting the role of the next economic superpower, thereby supplanting the USA? If so, is China planning to do this by design or is it simply awaiting this result by default as a result of the total collapse of the American economic system?...At a superficial level, it may appear to the onlooker that China has been sucked into a giant malinvestment by purchasing these bonds, but a closer look at Master Sun's stratagems may reveal a well conceived and even cunning plan...China may well be heading in the direction of pegging its currency in some form to something else and that that something else, is very likely to be gold. Then China could offload its US bonds by sale , once again raising the price of gold dramatically which in turn would compensate for the dollar losses...Not only would this give China the only trustworthy currency in the world, but it would simultaneously and conveniently constitute the knock-out blow to the USA as the economic superpower...

caused; China executive; com; Cunning Sun Tzu Strategy; destroyed; Dollar; EconomicPolicyJournal; gold; Upward Price Explosion.

Tue 2010-08-24 19:48 EDT

California Court Rules: MERS Can't Foreclose, Citibank Can't Collect - Mandelman Matters

...if a foreclosing party in California, that is not the original lender, claims that payment is due under the note, and that they have the right to foreclose on the basis of a MERS assignment, they're wrong... based on this opinion. The bottom line is that MERS has no authority to transfer the note because it never owned it, and that's a view that even seems to be supported by MERS' own contract, which says that ``MERS agrees not to assert any rights to mortgage loans or properties mortgaged thereby''...some lawyers believe that this ruling is relevant to borrowers across the country as well, because the court cited non-bankruptcy cases related to the lack of authority of MERS, and because this opinion is consistent with prior rulings in Idaho and Nevada Bankruptcy courts on the same issue...

California court ruled; Citibank; collections; foreclose; Mandelman Matters; MER.

Jesse's Café Américain Mon 2010-08-16 16:09 EDT

Chris Whalen: Nothing Has Changed Because It's The Fraud and Corruption, Stupid

Jesse

...The dirty little secret of the Dodd-Frank legislation is that by failing to curtail the worst abuses of the OTC market in structured assets and derivatives, a financial ghetto that even today remains virtually unregulated, the Congress and the Fed are effectively even encouraging securities firms to act as de facto exchanges and thereby commit financial fraud. Allowing securities firms to originate complex structured securities without requiring SEC registration is a vast loophole that Senator Christopher Dodd (D-CT) and Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) deliberately left open for their campaign contributors on Wall Street. But it must be noted these same firms have a captive, client relationship with the Fed and other regulators as well, thus a love triangle may be the most apt metaphor...a recent key supervisory officer appointment by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY)...choice of Sarah Dahlgren as Head of Supervision...Ms Dahlgren has been at the center of many of the Federal Reserve's most embarrassing failures in the area of bank supervision and in particular with respect to the failure of American International Group (AIG)...

change because; Chris Whalen; corruption; fraud; Jesse's Café Américain; Stupid.

billy blog Sat 2010-08-07 20:01 EDT

The government is the last borrower left standing

Remember back last year when the predictions were coming in daily that Japan was heading for insolvency and the thirst for Japanese government bonds would soon disappear as the public debt to GDP ratio headed towards 200 per cent? Remember the likes of David Einhorn...who was predicting that Japan was about to collapse -- having probably gone past the point of no return. This has been a common theme wheeled out by the deficit terrorists intent on bullying governments into cutting net spending in the name of fiscal responsibility. Well once again the empirical world is moving against the deficit terrorists as it does with every macroeconomic data release that comes out each day...On July 22, 2010, Richard Koo appeared before the Committee and presented his testimony...his views have resonance with the main perspectives offered by MMT although he does get some things wrong. His recent testimony is one of the better commentaries on the current economic problems but probably fell on deaf (or dumb) ears at the hearing. Koo told the hearing that there are recessions and then there are depressions. The correct policy response must differentiate correctly between these two economic episodes...

Billy Blog; borrower left standing; government.

Credit Writedowns Thu 2010-08-05 20:20 EDT

Do Deficits Matter? Foreign Lending to the Treasury

L. Randall Wray

...a US current account deficit will be reflected in foreign accumulation of US Treasuries, held mostly by foreign central banks...While this is usually presented as foreign ``lending'' to ``finance'' the US budget deficit, one could just as well see the US current account deficit as the source of foreign current account surpluses that can be accumulated as treasuries...most public discussion ignores the fact that the Chinese desire to run a trade surplus with the US is linked to its desire to accumulate dollar assets...all of the following are linked...the willingness of Chinese to produce for export, the willingness of China to accumulate dollar-denominated assets, the shortfall of Chinese domestic demand that allows China to run a trade surplus, the willingness of Americans to buy foreign products, the (relatively) high level of US aggregate demand that results in a trade deficit, and the factors that result in a US government budget deficit...I am not arguing that the current situation will go on forever, although I do believe it will persist much longer than most commentators presume...there are strong incentives against the sort of simple, abrupt, and dramatic shifts often posited as likely scenarios...I expect that the complexity as well as the linkages among balance sheets ensure that transitions will be moderate and slow...

credit writedowns; deficits matter; foreign lending; Treasury.

Tue 2010-08-03 15:02 EDT

Economics of Contempt: Anatomy of Lehman's Failure, and the Importance of Liquidity Requirements

Remember the Lehman Examiner's Report? The 4000+ page report by the court-appointed examiner was lauded for a couple of weeks after it was released, and then largely forgotten. The media and blogosphere quickly moved on to the next outrage-du-jour...Well, I did not forget about it, and thanks to the uptick in flights -- and thus reading time -- in the last few months, I can now credibly claim to have read....well, not every single word in the Examiner's Report (some appendices are just pages of CUSIPs), but all of the substantive sections...Anton Valukas and the lawyers at Jenner & Block who wrote the Examiner's Report did a masterful job. I was, and continue to be, in awe of the quality and comprehensiveness of the report...think I have a pretty good handle on what went wrong at Lehman, and why it failed...they were misrepresenting their liquidity pool. In a huge way...the brazenness of their misrepresentation was shocking...Including the clearing-bank collateral in its liquidity pool was not only inappropriate, but also aggressively deceptive...Lehman was also including in its liquidity pool non-central bank eligible CLOs and CDOs. And they had the audacity to mark these CLOs and CDOs at 100 (par) for purposes of the liquidity pool, even though JPMorgan's third-party pricing vendor marked them at 50--60...

Anatomy; contempt; economic; important; Lehman's failure; liquidity requirements.

naked capitalism Sun 2010-07-25 16:28 EDT

The Irish mess

Richard Smith

The Irish banks got in a big mess with duff RE loans. The government swapped discounted bad loans for government-issued bonds...the whole thing is the usual dump onto taxpayers...loans to no more than ten or a dozen of these developers account for EUR 20Bn of the EUR70Bn face value of the debts exchanged...The extra national debt incurred (so far) equates to EUR25,000 per taxpayer. And EUR6,500 of that goes to repair damage inflicted by just a dozen well-placed spivs. Then go for some fairly brutal austerity to sort out the new debt/GDP ratio (Irish unemployment was 13.5% the last time I looked). You will have some pretty discontented citizens, and the debt/GDP ratio will stay the same, or get worse, so you cut again...

Irish mess; naked capitalism.

Sat 2010-07-24 15:55 EDT

The Path of Unemployment

Dean Baker

...The US, unlike most western European countries, is not set up to sustain long periods of high unemployment. Its system of social welfare is very much centered on work. This is most evident with health care. The vast majority of non-elderly people get their health care through employer provided health insurance. Individual policies tend to be very expensive, especially for people with any history of medical problems. When people lose their jobs, they generally lose their health care coverage as well...While the downturn has led to high and prolonged unemployment in the US, it has not had quite the same effect in Europe...several European countries, most notably Germany and the Netherlands, have adopted a policy of work sharing to limit unemployment...Under work-sharing schemes, instead of just paying workers for being completely unemployed, the government pays workers for being partly unemployed...Germany has been able to use this system to keep its unemployment rate from rising at all in the recession...In the US workers are seeing near double-digit unemployment with the implied loss of income and benefits, as well as the loss of self-esteem and social status that is associated with long-term unemployment. By contrast, workers in Germany and the Netherlands are adjusting to the falloff in demand with shorter workweeks and longer vacations...

path; unemployment.

naked capitalism Fri 2010-07-23 17:08 EDT

Deficits Do Matter, But Not the Way You Think

L. Randall Wray

In recent months, a form of mass hysteria has swept the country as fear of ``unsustainable'' budget deficits replaced the earlier concern about the financial crisis, job loss, and collapsing home prices. What is most troubling is that this shift in focus comes even as the government's stimulus package winds down and as its temporary hires for the census are let go. Worse, the economy is still -- likely -- years away from a full recovery. To be sure, at least some of the hysteria has been manufactured by Pete Peterson's well-funded public relations campaign, fronted by President Obama's National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform -- a group that supposedly draws members from across the political spectrum, yet are all committed to the belief that the current fiscal stance puts the nation on a path to ruinous indebtedness...[however] the notion of ``fiscal sustainability'' or ``solvency'' is not applicable to a sovereign government -- which cannot be forced into involuntary default on debts denominated in its own currency...If we can get beyond the fears of national insolvency then there are many issues that can be fruitfully discussed. While inflation will not be a problem for many years, price pressures could return some day. Impacts of exchange rate instability are important, at least for some nations. Unemployment is a chronic problem, even at business cycle peaks. Aging does raise serious questions about allocation of resources, especially medical care. Poverty and homelessness exist in the midst of relative abundance. Simply recognizing that our sovereign government cannot go bankrupt does not solve those problems, but it does make them easier to resolve...

Deficit; matter; naked capitalism; Think; way.

Social Democracy for the 21st Century: A Post Keynesian Perspective Thu 2010-07-22 16:00 EDT

Fractional Reserve Banking: An Evil?

Lord Keynes

Hostility to fractional reserve banking is ubiquitous. The Austrians hate it and regard it as a type of fraud. There are even a good many people on the left who despise fractional reserve banking as an evil institution. However, a careful look at fractional reserve banking suggests that it is not necessarily a problem with modern fiat money, a well-regulated financial system, deposit insurance and a central bank ready as the lender of last resort. Fractional reserve banking without these safeguards can be extremely destabilizing and has often led to disastrous bank collapses and depressions...

21st century; evil; fractional reserve banking; Post Keynesian Perspective; social democracy.

Wed 2010-07-21 10:34 EDT

Paul Debates Jamie and MMT | Corrente

Paul Krugman, well-known for his opposition to the austerity concerns of the deficit terrorists and his advocacy of additional Government stimulus to lower unemployment and end the recession, just ignited a paradigm conflict which promises to clarify for many, the issues dividing ``deficit doves'' like Paul, from economists who take a Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) approach to economics, which holds, among other things, that Government deficits and surpluses are not, in themselves important, and that Government spending has to be evaluated relative to its impact on public purposes...this conclusion and also Paul's first post both set up a ``straw man,'' because Jamie never claimed that deficits are never a problem, and even pointed to circumstances (conditions of full employment) where deficits could lead to inflation. Given the comments on Paul's first blog, including a very clear comment by Marshall Auerback, it should have been clear to him that he was distorting the position of both Jamie and MMT. But evidently, Paul didn't want to admit that...Jamie and the MMT economists are opposed to the very idea, the very framing of Government's role in the economy in a way that makes everything subject to deficits, national debts, and debt-to-GDP ratios. The position of MMT is that these numbers are just endogenous consequences of real economic activity including Government fiscal activity, and that it is this activity that ought to drive them and not the other way around...

Corrente; MMT; Paul Debates Jamie.