Jesse's Café Américain Sat 2009-09-19 16:53 EDT
We have been trying to calculate a new lower bound for the dollar decline from the charts. Reason tells us that at some point the dollar decline and economic imbalances may lead to a devaluation of the dollar.
Dollar devaluation; Dollar Long Term Chart; Jesse's Café Américain; Scenarios.
Jesse's Café Américain Sun 2009-09-13 12:21 EDT
There is a strong correlation between this US equity rally and the Fed monetization of debt, which indicates a 'hot money' flow into US stocks but with thin volumes from a significant market bottom. This points to 'technical price trading' by the financial sector, also known was price manipulation, or trading stocks like commodities. Continued heavy insider selling from those with the best forward view of the real economy is a clear sign of a top. No one can trust what the Fed or the Administration are saying about an economic recovery, as much now as ever. Obama's administration is no reform government ...We will not be surprised if there is a significant decline, first to a pullback of about 7 to 10 percent. Then we will see if the market can rally on renewed dollar devaluation and if not, then another major slide to test lower levels.
Approaching Decline; Equities; impressive; Jesse's Café Américain; signed.
Asia Times Online Sun 2009-09-13 10:25 EDT
The inflation that might be expected in the United States from unprecedented expansionary monetary policies has failed to appear, while huge budget deficits have yet to produce higher interest rates. Far from being signs of a new economic paradigm, this merely means new bubbles are forming...Commodities and gold therefore are the destination of this year's hot money and are forming the new bubble...a fair-sized bubble has developed in the T-bond market...however...a modest resurgence in US inflation or difficulty in a long dated T-bond auction could cause confidence to flee the Treasury bond market and yields to leap uncontrollably upwards...the long-term costs of excessively cheap money are beginning to be seen in the US economy itself. By allowing money to remain so cheap for so long, and by running incessant payments deficits, the United States has surrendered the advantage of its superior long-established capital base, narrowing its capital cost advantage over emerging markets and exporting that capital to countries with less profligate approaches. Huge budget deficits, themselves worsening the trade deficit, merely export yet more US capital to the surplus nations. That makes it inevitable that the years ahead, in which the United States will no longer enjoy a capital advantage over its lower-wage competitors, will see highly unpleasant declines in US living standards.
naked capitalism Wed 2009-08-26 16:18 EDT
Served by Jesse of Le Café Américain The peak of foreign capital inflows into the US was clearly seen in the second quarter of 2007, just before the crisis in the US that has rocked its banking system and driven it deeply into recession. Are the two events connected? Had the US become a Ponzi scheme that began to collapse when new investment began to wane, and the growth of returns could not be maintained? Watch the dollar and the Treasury and Agency Debt auctions for any further signs of capital flight, which is when those net inflows of foreign capital turn negative. And if for some reason the unlikely happens and it gains momentum, the dollar and bonds and stocks can all go lower in unison, and there...
break; financial market; Foreign Net Capital Inflows Preceded; Guest Post; naked capitalism; plunge.
Thu 2009-02-26 00:00 EST
Stock Market Valuations Following the Great Moderation: Economic Volatility Tends to Lower Valuation Norms in the Bull Markets that Follow, by William Hester
Thu 2009-01-15 00:00 EST
Lower; naked capitalism; Tobin's Q Ratio Says Equity Bottom.
Fri 2008-12-12 00:00 EST
THREE STUPID GENIUSES: GREENSPAN, RUBIN and SUMMERS, by Elaine Meinel Supkis << Culture of Life News; Japanese carry trade; the dangers of long, long depressions caused by people inheriting wealth; Ayn Rand; kill the lower classes off, clip coupons and marry each other and concentrate wealth more and more in the hands of fewer and fewer people.
Culture; Greenspan; Life News; Rubin; stupid genius; summer.
Tue 2008-10-07 00:00 EDT
``By pursuing a relentless mercantilist strategy, and becoming dependent on the US as a customer, it is sure to show lower growth as the US economy pulls back''
Tue 2008-10-07 00:00 EDT
Mon 2008-07-07 00:00 EDT
"government spending expansion, regardless of the form, will tend to raise the marginal utility of goods and services while lowering the marginal utility of government liabilities.", hence encouraging inflation
2008; 60 oil; Hussman Funds; Inflation; July 7; likelihood; outlook; weekly market comments.
Fri 2008-03-28 00:00 EDT
Mysterious discrepancies in grain prices baffle experts, by Diana B. Henriques, International Herald Tribune; disparities between futures, cash markets; question "whether farmers, who rely almost exclusively on the cash market, are being shortchanged by cash prices that are lower than the derivatives market says they should be."
grain prices baffle experts; International Herald Tribune; Mysterious discrepancies.
Thu 2008-03-27 00:00 EDT
Wal-Mart "elling the major record labels to lower the price of CDs or risk losing retail space to DVDs and video games"
Sat 2008-03-22 00:00 EDT
by James Hamilton; "there is some point beyond which lowering the fed funds rate further will do more harm than good"
