Christopher Whalen Sat 2010-09-25 09:52 EDT

Double dip or global deflation?

Christopher Whalen

...Let's start with the term ``recession,'' which itself reflects the assumption that economic growth is always positive and the trend line is always upward sloping. While many economists in the U.S. remain convinced that this is an accurate descriptor, what Americans and many other people of the world need to consider is whether the assumption that the economy will grow endlessly is reasonable...much of what Americans think was real growth supported by real income and real work was, in fact, the result of deficit spending and reckless monetary expansion by the Fed, first under Alan Greenspan and now Ben Bernake...some of the leading experts in the housing sector believe that the U.S. is less than 25% through the restructuring of defaulted loans on commercial and residential real estate, and that the backlog is growing...Just as the housing sector and the related debt was the driver of the U.S. economy over the past several decades, I believe that the deflation of the housing market could spell an equally drastic period of shrinkage in economic activity in the U.S. and around the world...

Christopher Whalen; double dip; Global deflation.

New Deal 2.0 Thu 2010-07-22 15:54 EDT

The Summer(s) of Our Discontent

Marshall Auerback

Virtually every profile on Larry Summers tells us that he is one of the most brilliant economists of his generation...Only Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan played a more important role than Summers in promoting the deregulation and lax oversight that laid the foundations for the current crisis...the latest FT defense reflects Summers's fundamental lack of understanding of modern money. Contrary to his view, the late 90s surpluses was not the reason for that period's prosperity. The surpluses are what ended the prosperity. And until the public understands this, we should expect no fundamental improvement in economic policymaking from the Obama Administration...he violates one of Abba Lerner's key laws of functional finance: a government's spending and borrowing should be conducted ``with an eye only to the results of these actions on the economy, and not to any established traditional doctrine about what is sound and what is unsound.'' In other words, Lerner believed that the very idea of what good fiscal policy means boils down to what results you can get -- not some arbitrary notion of ``fiscal sustainability''...The government budget surplus meant by identity that the private sector was running a deficit. Households and firms were going ever farther into debt, and they were losing their net wealth of government bonds. Growth was a product of a private debt bubble, which in turn fuelled a stock market and real estate bubble, the collapse of which has created the foundations for today's troubles...

0; discontent; new dealing 2; s; summer.

New Deal 2.0 Mon 2010-07-12 16:51 EDT

The Unlearned Lesson of the 1987 Crash

Henry Liu revisits the stock market crash of 1987 to dispel free market fundamentalism and the neo-conservative lust for deregulation...The Federal Reserve's actions under Greenspan in 1987 led market participants to conclude that the Fed would emphasize domestic market objectives with accommodative monetary stance, if necessary at the cost of a further decline in the dollar. By year-end, the dollar's value had fallen 21% against the yen and 14% against the mark from its levels at the time of the Louvre Accord while Greenspan, the wizard of bubble-land, was on his way to being hailed as the greatest central banker in history. Two decades later, by 2007, the Greenspan put was called by the market and trillions of dollars were lost.

0; 1987 crash; new dealing 2; unlearned lessons.

Credit Writedowns Thu 2010-06-03 17:56 EDT

Guest Post: The 2004 Fed Transcripts: A Methodical, Diabolical Destruction of America's "Wealth"

Frederick Sheehan

The Federal Reserve releases transcripts of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings with a five-year lag (as required by law, the Fed would like to burn them). Transcripts for 2004 meetings were released on April 30, 2010...FOMC transcripts in 2004 confirm the Fed was afraid of markets...The FOMC seemed most concerned that higher rates might interfere with the carry trade. In the sad tale of The Financialization of the United States, the carry trade deserves a chapter...By 2004, the carry trade was a mammoth enterprise of hedge funds and banks. The too-big-to-fail banks were, by now, leveraging their own internally managed hedge funds, managing their own proprietary trading desks, and also lending to highly leveraged hedge funds. Leverage, and, the belief that access to rising levels of credit would never end, pushed up asset values on bank balance sheets -- whether real estate, bonds, stocks, or private-equity. This increased the banks' lending capacity which encouraged banks to lend more...Markets believed asset prices would only go up for many silly reasons. Belief in the Greenspan Put may have been the silliest but also the most influential...Federal Reserve Governor Donald Kohn...told his confreres that Federal Reserve policy was to distort asset prices. He also said this was deliberate and desirable. In other words, distorted asset prices were not an unfortunate consequence of such-and-such Fed policy. The Fed's goal was to distort asset prices...Consumer spending exceeded consumer income...This strategy of fixing asset prices at an artificially high rate to fool the American people into spending money they did not have was diabolical...The manipulation of markets and of the American people has grown worse under Bernanke's chairmanship...

2004 Fed Transcripts; America's; credit writedowns; Diabolical Destruction; Guest Post; Method; wealth.

Tue 2010-03-09 18:09 EST

Fed Audit Bitterly Opposed By Treasury

Ryan Grim

The Treasury Department is vigorously opposed to a House-passed measure that would open the Federal Reserve to an audit by the Government Accountability Office (GAO), a senior Treasury official said Monday... "It's interesting that the Fed regards the simple fact that people find out what it does as somehow being unduly restrictive. We are a government of laws, not of men," [said Representative Alan Grayson]. "It's certainly no surprise that banking insiders at Treasury don't want transparency at the Fed," said Jesse Benton, a spokesman for Rep. Paul. "They are wrapped up in the central bank shenanagins too, and do not want their wheelings and dealings out in the open any more than Alan Greenspan or Ben Bernanke,"

Fed Audit Bitterly Opposed; Treasury.

Jesse's Café Américain Tue 2010-03-09 17:51 EST

Russia Continues to Build Its Gold Reserves Ahead of the SDR Discussions

Jesse

Thanks to friend Dave at Golden Truth for this updated chart.As you know, Russia, India, China and some of the BRIC-like countries will continue to push hard for a gold and silver content in the new formulation of the SDR this year. The US and UK are vehemently opposed...One cannot have a common currency with uncommon fiscal policies and laws. While there is some room for discretion, it is sorely tried in changing economic conditions and social attitudes...This is why a one world currency, except for international trade only and at the discretion of trading partners, is so dangerous. One cannot maintain their sovereign freedom when someone else controls the supply of their money: either you cheat or you submit. All serious economists understand this; too few of the voting public do...This is the fallacy of the US dollar as the reserve currency for the world. It 'worked' as even Mr. Greenspan noted, as long as the US dollar was able to demonstrate the objective stability of an external gold standard relative to other currencies. That lasted for a few years, and the rest is foreign policy and currency wars. The time for its replacement is long past. The BRIC's understand this, and are playing their hands accordingly...

building; gold reserves; Jesse's Café Américain; Russia continues; SDR Discussions.

naked capitalism Wed 2010-01-13 11:54 EST

William Black'' ``Anti-Regulators: The Federal Reserve's War Against Effective Regulation''

...This essay focuses on Chairman Bernanke recent appointment of Dr. Parkinson to lead the Fed's examination and supervision. My central point is that Dr. Bernanke appointed Dr. Parkinson because he shared Dr. Bernanke's anti-regulatory ideology and has never changed those views, even in the face of the Great Recession. The anti-regulator policies that Bernanke and Parkinson championed were the principal drivers of the fraud epidemic that have produced recurrent, intensifying crises...First, Dr. Parkinson was a leading proponent of the obscene (and successful) effort to prevent Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Brooksley Born from taking regulatory action to prevent destructive credit default swaps (CDS). Second, Dr. Parkinson, like Greenspan and Bernanke, subscribed to the naïve view that fraud was impossible in sophisticated financial markets and that credit rating agencies were reliable. Third, Dr. Parkinson endorsed the international ``competition in regulatory laxity'' that Dr. Bernanke (belatedly) warned has degraded regulation on a global basis...

anti regulators; effectively regulated; Federal Reserve's War; naked capitalism; William Black.

zero hedge Thu 2009-12-31 11:52 EST

Shadowstats' John Williams: Prepare For The Hyperinflationary Great Depression

John Williams, who runs the popular counter government data manipulation site Shadowstats, has thrown down the gauntlet to deflationists, and in an extensive report concludes that the probability of a hyperinflationary episode in America over the next year has reached critical levels. While the debate between deflationists and (hyper)inflationists has been a long and painful one, numerous events set off in motion by the Bernanke Fed (as a direct legacy of the Greenspan multi-decade period of cheap and boundless credit) may have well cast America as the unwilling protagonist in the sequel of the failed monetary policy economic experiment better known as Zimbabwe.

Hyperinflationary Great Depression; John Williams; prepared; ShadowStats; Zero Hedge.

Debtor's prison Thu 2009-12-17 10:24 EST

Did Greenspan predict the inevitable collapse of the USD?

MAAA

Much of our recent discussion has focused on the seemingly inevitable collapse of the US-debt-backed global financial system. In continuation of that theme, today we will explore a specific aspect of this problem: the likelihood of a US default...

Debtor s Prison; Greenspan predictions; inevitable collapse; USD.

Jesse's Café Américain Tue 2009-12-01 10:06 EST

Morgan Stanley Fears UK Default in 2010

Jesse

As you may recall we are bears on sterling, and view the UK as the Iceland of the G20.The monetary policies of the Bank of England were as bad as those of the Greenspan - Bernanke Fed. The difference is that the UK does not hold the world's reserve currency as a captive source of revenues. As an aside, we see that Bank of England advisor and economic franc-tireur Willem Buiter has decided to seek greener pastures as chief economist with Citi in the States. Timely exit. Bravo, Willem.

2010; Jesse's Café Américain; Morgan Stanley Fears UK Default.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Wed 2009-11-25 12:05 EST

What Is Inflation and How Does One Measure It?

Michael Shedlock

...Inflation is a net expansion of money supply and credit, where credit is marked to market. Deflation is the opposite: a net contraction of money supply and credit, where credit is marked to market...Credit (and credit problems) dwarf monetary concerns at the present...I still expect the US to slip in and out of deflation and recession for years to come just as happened in Japan...banks aren't lending, consumer credit is contracting, credit writeoffs are likely to exceed monetary printing, and symptoms like treasury yields are in generally in agreement...To bail out the banks' poor bets on Dot-Com companies and Latin America in 2001-2002, Greenspan purposely ignited a credit bubble that led to the mother of all housing crashes. In response to the housing bust, the Fed refused to let failed banks go out of business and is attempting to force another credit bubble...However, this is the end of the line. Housing was the bubble of last resort, nothing can come close to the number of jobs created by the global housing bubble. Further attempts to reflate will do nothing but create a currency crisis, crash the economy, and add to future liabilities that cannot be paid back.

Inflation; measured; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

zero hedge Thu 2009-11-19 10:36 EST

Bob (Janjuah) Is Back... And He Is Pissed

Near term I think the battle will be between Central Bankers, who deep down, and I think privately at least, FEAR bubbles, FEAR failure and FEAR FORCED abandonment if current policies are persisted with too long and/or added to, vs Fiscal Authorities, who by definition want short-term fixes (there is after all an election cycle in the UK & in the US next yr). This is like a rumble in the jungle between the VOLCKER-ites and the GREENSPAN-ites, with GREENSPAN representing the Fiscal Authorities (he was after all surely the most politicised central banker ever). Are the Volcker-ites up to a fight? I think so. I hope so. Kevin feels and I FEAR however that they aren't/they won't. In which case MORE policy and then, very soon thereafter DISASTER, will follow. In this rumble the inevitable outcome is deflation and multi-yr austerity.

Bob; Janjuah; piss; Zero Hedge.

The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com Tue 2009-10-27 11:21 EDT

George Goehl: A New Crossover Hit: "Break Up the Big Banks"

George Goehl

We've reached an incredible moment when Alan Greenspan, Michael Moore, FDIC head Sheila Bair and Elizabeth Warren are all singing the same tune. These four, and others, have formed a distinct choir that is calling for breaking up the big banks.

big banks; break; com; full Feeds; George Goehl; HuffingtonPost; New Crossover Hit.

zero hedge Fri 2009-10-23 19:30 EDT

A Stern Opponent Of Funding The FDIC's Depleted Deposit Insurance Fund, And Monetization Is... Alan Greenspan?

What a difference twenty years makes. The man whose actions basically lead to the eradication of the American middle class in its aspirational pursuit of buying massive SUVs, Prada bags, and 3rd investment properties, compliments of cheap credit, in order to appear ever so much like the upper class yet ultimately drowning itself in debt, Alan Greenspan, is probably the most critical reason why America's debt service will be nearly 90% of GDP within several decades. The adoption of his actions by the current deranged operator of the reserve currency printing press, is merely a continuation of a multiple decade long process of keeping inflation contained at the expense of devaluing the US currency, as the global liquidity pyramid recently hit one quadrillion, and continues to grow exponentially, yet...

Alan Greenspan; FDIC's Depleted Deposit Insurance Fund; funds; monetize; Stern Opponent; Zero Hedge.

Jesse's Café Américain Tue 2009-10-13 20:27 EDT

Consumer Credit Contracting at Record Levels

Jesse

...The challenge facing Bernanke and the Obama economic team is how to get the US consumer spending again, if they cannot be paid a living wage, and if they can no longer be encouraged to borrow beyoned their means, by using their homes as a cash machine with variable interest rates, as they were encouraged to do by Fed Chairman Greenspan...There can be no denying that the Fed is promoting money supply growth in ways never seen before in the US. Whether they can be successful is open to question. We think they will keep at it until they break something.

consumer credit contracting; Jesse's Café Américain; record levels.

The Big Picture Mon 2009-10-12 10:03 EDT

Fixing Derivatives Regulation

Any plan that seeks to reverse the unregulated wild west that derivatives have existed in since 2000 must have a simple beginning: Repeal the Commodity Futures Modernization Act. This ruinous and corrupt legislation, pushed through by the Bonnie & Clyde of deivatives, Enron Board member Wendy Gramm, and her astonishingly clueless ideologue husband, former Texas Senator (and current UBS member) Phil Gramm, lay at the heart of the current derivatives debacle. After Greenspan, Gramm is the single most culpable individual in terms of damaging the global economy.

Big Picture; Fixing Derivatives Regulation.