The Economic Populist - Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time Mon 2009-12-28 18:57 EST

Pricing a CDO - Not only Bad Math, Bad Computation too

A working paper, Computational complexity and informational asymmetry in financial products, Sanjeev Arora, Boaz Barak, Markus Brunnermeier, Rong Ge. sheds some light on the complex mathematical models upon which credit default obligations and other derivatives are based. What Arora et al. prove is not only are many derivative mathematical models impossible to compute, never mind in real time, because they require more computing power than the world possesses, the missing information to run a mathematical model is a very good place to cheat with.

Bad Computation; bad math; CDO; economic populist; Mind 2 Cents; Price; speaking; Time.

Willem Buiter's Maverecon Sat 2009-10-10 14:00 EDT

Expect little and you may yet be disappointed

Willem Buiter

...the most disappointing development this year was the performance of president Barack Obama and his administration - and my expectations were modest to begin with...On the fiscal side, Barack Obama is presiding over the biggest peace-time government deficits and public debt build-up ever. According to my back-of-the-envelope calculations there is about a 10 percent of GDP gap between the medium and longer-term spending plans of the Obama administration and the taxes the Congress is willing and able to impose. The reality that you cannot run a West-European welfare state (with decent quality health care, decent pre-school, primary and secondary school education for all), rebuild America's crumbling infrastructure, invest in the environment and fulfill your post-imperial global strategic ambitions while raising 33 percent of GDP in taxes, has not yet dawned on the Obama administration or on the American people at large...Clearly, the qualities one needs to get elected to high office in western democracies are not qualities that are likely to be helpful once you have achieved high office and are expected to govern and lead. To survive the selection process to become president you have to be able to stitch together a coalition of special interests that can provide sufficient financial and sweat equity resources to win this grueling race to the top. Once you get there, you should shed the unfortunate baggage you accumulated on your way up and govern in the interest of all the people. Few can do that. Apparently Obama is not one of them.

disappointment; expectations; Willem Buiter's Maverecon.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Thu 2009-08-27 10:52 EDT

Bankrupt Auto Parts Suppliers Seek $100 Million In Executive Bonuses

Michael Shedlock

In every corner, greed continues to amaze. Please consider Bankrupt suppliers seek exec bonuses. A growing number of bankrupt auto suppliers are seeking court approval to pay tens of millions of dollars in bonuses to key executives, as they shed employees and cut costs.

100; Bankrupt Auto Parts Suppliers Seek; executives bonus; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Tue 2009-06-16 00:00 EDT

Calculated Risk: Using Corporate Bonds as an Economic Predictor

``model predicts industrial production will fall another 17% by the end of the year, and the economy will lose another 7.8 million jobs on top of the 5.1 million it has shed since the recession began''

Calculated Risk; Economic Predictor; Using Corporate Bonds.

Tue 2009-04-21 00:00 EDT

Jesse's Café Américain: Overseas Private Investors Sell US Financial Assets

Jesse's Café Américain: Overseas Private Investors Sell US Financial Assets; Foreign central banks continued to purchase Treasuries while shedding agency debt. This is largely in support of currency pegs for industrial policy and homage from client states like Saudi Arabia.

financial assets; Jesse's Café Américain; Overseas Private Investors Sell.