dimelab dimelab: shrinking the gap between talk and action.

speaking Topic in The Credit Debacle Catalog

Chalmers Johnson start speaking (1); cult master speaks (1); DC Insider speaking (1); FHFA's DeMarco Speaks (2); finance speak (1); Geithner Doth Speak (1); James K. Galbraith speaks (1); Markets Cheer Stress Test Double Speak (1); people speak (1); Russian speaking population (1); Speaking days (1); Speaks Truth (1); walls speak (1); Whistleblowers speak (2).

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Mon 2010-09-20 10:14 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Fictional Reserve Lending And The Myth Of Excess Reserves

...1) Lending comes first and what little reserves there are (if any) come later. 2) There really are no excess reserves. 3) Not only are there no excess reserves, there are essentially no reserves to speak of at all. Indeed, bank reserves are completely "fictional". 4) Banks are capital constrained not reserve constrained. 5) Banks aren't lending because there are few credit worthy borrowers worth the risk. ...concern that excess reserves will lead to lending and inflation is totally unfounded in theory and practice. Fractional Reserve Lending is really Fictional Reserve Lending. In practice, the major constraints to lending are insufficient capital and willingness of credit worthy borrowers to seek loans.

excess reserves; Fictional Reserve Lending; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; myth.

billy blog Thu 2010-07-15 16:28 EDT

Trichet interview -- the cult master speaks!

The centre-left Parisian daily newspaper Libération recently published (July 8, 2010) an -- Interview with Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB. The questions...probed some of the key issues facing the EMU... ...the likely response in the EMU will be to further constrain fiscal policy. The glaring design flaw in the monetary system is the lack of a supranational fiscal authority that can spend like a sovereign government and address asymmetric demand shocks. Trichet's solution is to worsen this design flaw by penalising nations that encounter deficits outside of the fiscal rules. The reality is that the automatic stabilisers have driven the budgets in many countries beyond the SGP rules given how severe the collapse in economic activity has been following the sharp decline in aggregate demand. Further constraining the fiscal capacity to respond to these negative spending shocks will entrench higher levels of unemployment and poverty...

Billy Blog; cult master speaks; Trichet Interview.

The Wall Street Examiner Sat 2010-05-22 19:56 EDT

Imagine There's No Credit Market: Another Look At German Controls

...Thus, when people speak of "rescuing the credit markets" they really mean to say rescuing the liquidity providers who failed to assess lending risks so profoundly they can't make required payments. When people talk of German restrictions killing the credit markets, they really mean killing the middle-men (which may or may not have a deleterious effect on government borrowing). German restrictions on certain types of equity and credit transactions are not aimed at reduced government borrowing. They are aimed at reducing the amount (and means of capture) of profit "earned" by middle-men in the transaction- profits, mind you, as per our model, in the case of government borrowing, come either as a result of the money's original owner getting less interest than a direct deal would generate, the government paying more interest (which only comes from higher tax revenues) than a direct deal would generate, or some combination thereof. ...liquidity providing actions of "credit market" middle-men has run amok. As per J.S. Mill, that credit markets are exerting a distinct and independent influence of their own means they are out of order. With increasing frequency, credit is mispriced or unwisely extended and liquidity, the raison d'être of these people, dries up when it is needed most. Yet the middle-men who fail in their tasks expect to be rescued from their failures, and given even more ways to profit from lending other people's money, while the pool of available savings shrinks. ...In one sense I'm quite happy about all of the financial sector bail-outs governments have provided these credit-market middle-men. Before the bail-outs, one had to argue that finance was like a tax on monetary exchange, now this point is clear, finance is, in fact, a tax- and a growing one at that.

credit markets; German-Controlled; imagine; looking; s; Wall Street Examiner.

zero hedge Fri 2010-05-21 13:45 EDT

"If The US Can Do It, So Can We": Japan To Keep Pumping Cash And Monetizing Debt Until Deflation Goes Away

And with that Japan joins the competitive devaluation currency race...Speaking before lawmakers BOJ governor Masaaki Shirakawa, who recently said Japan was powerless to fight deflation on its own, has changed his tune, and today said that Japan will print the kitchen sink if it has to to beat "stubborn deflation."...Shirakawa noted that monetization is happily chugging along: "We are buying JGBs in order to inject ample funds into financial markets in a stable manner and we are buying Y21.6 trillion of JGBs annually" and he made it clear that adjusting for scale differences, the Japanese monetization program is three times faster than the Fed's Treasury QE...

Deflation Goes Away; Japan; Keep Pumping Cash; Monetize Debt; Zero Hedge.

Jesse's Café Américain Tue 2010-05-18 15:10 EDT

The US Intelligentsia and Middle Class Are In the Firm Grip of Fear, Fraud and Denial

The lie is comfortable, an illusion easy to live with, familiar, and safe. Writing from the 'disgraced profession' of economics, James K. Galbraith speaks of the unspoken, the many frauds and deceptions underlying the recent financial crisis centered in the US...``the country faces an existential threat. Either the legal system must do its work. Or the market system cannot be restored. There must be a thorough, transparent, effective, radical cleaning of the financial sector and also of those public officials who failed the public trust. The financiers must be made to feel, in their bones, the power of the law. And the public, which lives by the law, must see very clearly and unambiguously that this is the case...''

denial; fears; firm grip; fraud; intelligentsia; Jesse's Café Américain; middle class.

zero hedge Sun 2010-04-25 14:23 EDT

Exclusive: Second Whistleblower Emerges - A Deep Insider's Walkthru To Silver Market Manipulation

A second whistleblower speaks. As the topic of physical delivery has gained prominent attention recently, it is crucial to complete the circle and show how this weakest link in the PM market is (ab)used by the big boys: Phibro and Warren Buffet. Pay particular attention to the analogues between the methods employed in the 90's commodity market and how the PM (and equity) market is being gamed currently. And to think that each new generation of traders believes it has discovered something new...As a market maker in silver options from 1989 to 2000 I was present during both the 1994 and 1997 silver events. They were seminal in my education of gamesmanship in trading and how probabilities can come up short...

Deep Insider's Walkthru; exclusive; Silver Market Manipulation; whistleblower emerging; Zero Hedge.

Jesse's Café Américain Wed 2010-04-07 19:03 EDT

King World Interview with Andrew Maguire the Silver Market 'Whistleblower'

"The Biggest Fraud in the World" I do not know what to think about this, except to just offer it up to you for your own information. I am disappointed, however, that only the blogs, and almost no one in the mainstream media, have bothered to cover this story and to speak to the principals, and to either debunk them, support them, or even consider what they have to say. This really is like the Harry Markopolos story, trying to get a hearing on the Madoff ponzi scheme, and being repeatedly ignored, intimidated, and discouraged in every way possible by the establishment, and even fearing for his life... I have now listened to this tape five times, carefully. It is a bombshell. This has to be dealt with, one way or the other. Bring it out into the light of day, and let the facts be known. This is either the equivalent of the fictionalized testimony on the order of the Salem Witch trials, or one of the most damning accusations of malfeasance in office against quasi-governmental agencies, and probably US officials, since Teapot Dome...

Andrew Maguire; Jesse's Café Américain; King World Interview; silver markets; Whistleblower.

Jesse's Café Américain Sat 2010-04-03 09:48 EDT

Whistleblower Speaks Out On J. P. Morgan's Market Manipulation - Reports Violations to the CFTC

Do we have another Harry Markopolos here, describing in detail the manipulation of the gold market by J.P. Morgan to the CFTC? How does this square with the testimony today from the CFTC Commissioners, who seem to indicate that the markets are functioning extremely well, and that investor can have full confidence in them? I am led to understand that Mr. McGuire had offered to testify before the CFTC today, and that he was refused admittance. I do not know him, or the position he is in within the trading community. I cannot therefore assess his credibility or the validity of any evidence which he may present or possess. But I have the feeling that nothing will come of this...What seems particularly twisted about this is that JPM is the custodian of the largest silver ETF (SLV). Is anyone auditing that ETF, and watching any conflicts of interest and self-trading? Multiple counterparty claims on the same bullion? If you ever wanted to see a good reason for the Volcker rule, this is it. These jokers are one of the US' largest banks, with trillions of dollars in unaudited derivatives exposure, and they seem to be engaging in trading practices like Enron did before it collapsed...

CFTC; J. P. Morgan's Market Manipulation; Jesse's Café Américain; reported violations; Whistleblowers speak.

The Economic Populist - Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time Sun 2010-02-07 18:20 EST

Is Residential Real Estate a Ticking Time Bomb?

...First is the latest SIGTARP report saying the Government has become the mortgage market with U.S. taxpayers shouldering the risk. From the SIGTARP report we have a 100% government mortgage market at this point...Fannie and Freddie now have an unlimited bailout and it is estimated they have lost $400 billion dollars. The plan is to purchase $1.25 trillion mortgage backed securities from these two GSEs until the end of March...The number of homeowners who are strategically walking away from their mortgages is up to 10% this year...All of the above free money, the government pouring in trillions of dollars to prop up the housing market. Yet while price declines have slowed, prices are still declining and the above simply cannot go on forever. In fact one thing isn't going on forever. The Fed will stop buying MBSes at the end of March, 2010. So, when our government created illusion does pop, do we then have the real housing bubble implosion?

economic populist; Mind 2 Cents; residential real estate; speaking; ticking time bomb; Time.

Mon 2010-01-04 18:00 EST

A DC insider speaks to us about ``Voices of Power'' <<; Fabius Maximus

Elizabeth Warren interviewed by Lois Romano. ``I believe that the middle class is under terrific assault.''

DC Insider speaking; Fabius Maximus; Power; voiced.

The Economic Populist - Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time Mon 2009-12-28 18:57 EST

Pricing a CDO - Not only Bad Math, Bad Computation too

A working paper, Computational complexity and informational asymmetry in financial products, Sanjeev Arora, Boaz Barak, Markus Brunnermeier, Rong Ge. sheds some light on the complex mathematical models upon which credit default obligations and other derivatives are based. What Arora et al. prove is not only are many derivative mathematical models impossible to compute, never mind in real time, because they require more computing power than the world possesses, the missing information to run a mathematical model is a very good place to cheat with.

Bad Computation; bad math; CDO; economic populist; Mind 2 Cents; Price; speaking; Time.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Mon 2009-12-21 19:32 EST

Fictional Reserve Lending And The Myth Of Excess Reserves

...The chart shows an unprecedented amount of excess reserves, almost $1.2 trillion. According to Money Multiplier Theory (MMT) and Fractional Reserve Lending, this amount may be lent out as much as 10 times over and when it does, massive inflation will result. The above hypotheses regarding "Excess Reserves" are wrong for five reasons. 1) Lending comes first and what little reserves there are (if any) come later. 2) There really are no excess reserves. 3) Not only are there no excess reserves, there are essentially no reserves to speak of at all. Indeed, bank reserves are completely "fictional". 4) Banks are capital constrained not reserve constrained. 5) Banks aren't lending because there are few credit worthy borrowers worth the risk.

excess reserves; Fictional Reserve Lending; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; myth.

The Economic Populist - Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time Sun 2009-12-13 09:08 EST

RUBIN'S RUBES: Matt Taibbi's slapdown of the Obama Administration

In the December issue of Rolling Stone the journalist Matt Taibbi hits yet another grand slam exposing the murky world of Wall Street and Washington politics ("Obama's Big Sellout"). Taibbi provides a detailed and thoughtful analysis on the myriad connections between numerous Obama appointees and Robert Rubin, the Obama presidential campaign's economic advisor, and former Clinton Treasury Secretary who led the charge for the passage of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999, to create the megamerger that was to become Citigroup.

economic populist; Matt Taibbi's slapdown; Mind 2 Cents; Obama administration; RUBIN'S RUBES; speaking; Time.

The Economic Populist - Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time Wed 2009-11-25 11:23 EST

Societe Generale - How to Prepare Yourself for a Global Economic Collapse

Commodities Bugs are ecstatic with the French firm Societe Generale's Worst Case Debt Scenario Report...On the first page you will see as the number one thing to do to project yourself: Sell your dollars

economic populist; global economic collapse; Mind 2 Cents; prepared; Societe generally; speaking; Time.

Bruce Krasting Thu 2009-11-19 10:52 EST

FHFA's DeMarco Speaks - Ouch!

FHFA's Acting Director Edward DeMarco provided written testimony to the Senate today. I would give his presentation a B+. There is little room for optimism in this story. Mr. DeMarco did not gloss that fact over. A few snips from that speech: -From July 2007 through the first half of 2009--combined losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac totaled $165 billion. In the first half of 2009, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac together reported net losses of $47 billion. -Since the establishment of the conservatorships, the combined losses at the two Enterprises depleted all their capital and required them to draw $96 billion. The combined support from the federal government exceeds $1 trillion. -The short-term outlook for the Enterprises remains troubled and likely will require additional draws...

Bruce Krasting; FHFA's DeMarco Speaks; Ouch.

naked capitalism Fri 2009-10-23 09:20 EDT

Paul Volcker, Mervyn King, Glass Steagall, and the Real TBTF Problem

Paul Volcker wants to roll the clock back and restore Glass Steagall, the 1933 rule that separated commercial banking from investment banking, but Team Obama is politely ignoring him. Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, is giving a more strident version of the same message...I think Volcker is wrong, but not for reasons one might expect...The problem is that we have had a thirty year growth in securitization. A lot of activities that were once done strictly on bank balance sheets are merely originated by banks and are sold into capital markets...you could in theory go back to having much more on balance sheet intermediation (finance speak for ``dial the clock back 35 years and have banks keep pretty much all their loans''). Conceptually, that is a tidy solution, but it has a massive flaw: it would take a simply enormous amount of equity to provide enough equity to all those banks with their vastly bigger balance sheets. We're having enough trouble recapitalizing the banking system we have...I have yet to see anything even remotely approaching a realistic discussion of how to deal with too big too fail firms, and we have been at this for months. My knowledge of the industry is not fully current, but even so, the difficulties are far greater than I have seen acknowledged anywhere. That pretty much guarantees none of the proposals are serious, and nothing will be done on this front. That further implies the system will have to break down catastrophically before anything effective can be done. I really hope I am wrong on this one.

Glass Steagall; Mervyn King; naked capitalism; Paul Volcker; Real TBTF Problem.

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