Sat 2010-07-24 15:55 EDT

The Path of Unemployment

Dean Baker

...The US, unlike most western European countries, is not set up to sustain long periods of high unemployment. Its system of social welfare is very much centered on work. This is most evident with health care. The vast majority of non-elderly people get their health care through employer provided health insurance. Individual policies tend to be very expensive, especially for people with any history of medical problems. When people lose their jobs, they generally lose their health care coverage as well...While the downturn has led to high and prolonged unemployment in the US, it has not had quite the same effect in Europe...several European countries, most notably Germany and the Netherlands, have adopted a policy of work sharing to limit unemployment...Under work-sharing schemes, instead of just paying workers for being completely unemployed, the government pays workers for being partly unemployed...Germany has been able to use this system to keep its unemployment rate from rising at all in the recession...In the US workers are seeing near double-digit unemployment with the implied loss of income and benefits, as well as the loss of self-esteem and social status that is associated with long-term unemployment. By contrast, workers in Germany and the Netherlands are adjusting to the falloff in demand with shorter workweeks and longer vacations...

path; unemployment.

Sat 2010-05-22 20:28 EDT

New Economic Perspectives: What If the Government Just Prints Money?

Scott Fullwiler

As Congress gets set in the near future to consider raising the debt ceiling yet again, my fellow blogger L. Randall Wray creatively suggests not raising the debt ceiling but instead having the Treasury continue spending as it always does: by simply crediting bank accounts...Wray's proposal is based upon modern monetary theory (MMT) that is the focus this blog and those by Bill Mitchell, Warren Mosler, and Winterspeak. Of course, given the lack of understanding of basic reserve accounting at the heart of MMT and Wray's proposal on the part of the public, the financial press, and the vast majority of economists, one can already anticipate the outpouring of criticism suggesting that such a proposal amounts to ``printing money'' and thereby destroying the value of the currency...The approach here recognizes the importance of understanding the balance sheet implications of both of these options that are central to MMT. While most economists typically assume a supply and demand relationship, as in the hypothesized loanable funds market, and then build models accordingly, such an approach can miss important relationships in the real world...Both the Treasury's bond sales and the Fed's operations affect only the relative quantities of securities, reserve balances, and currency held by the non-government sector; the total sum of these is set by the outstanding government debt. With or without bond sales, it is the non-government sector's decision to spend or save that matters in regard to the potential inflationary impact of a given government deficit. Indeed, to be more precise, a deficit accompanied by bond sales is actually the MORE potentially inflationary option, as the net financial assets created by the deficit will be increased still further when additional debt service is paid.

Government Just Prints Money; New Economic Perspectives.

Jesse's Café Américain Wed 2010-04-07 19:14 EDT

The Case for Position Limits: What is the 'Spot Price' of Gold and Silver And How Is It Set?

Jesse

...almost all retail transactions for physical bullion in the US key off a 'spot price' that is derived from a paper market which is not based in the reality of physical supply, since the futures exchanges explicitly allow for the settlement in cash if physical bullion is not available. In fact, the vast majority of transactions are settled in cash, and are little more than derivatives bets it seems, and often hedges related to other things like another commodity or interest rates...As someone who approaches it as an amateur economist, and has been looking at its dynamics for the past few years, I may be missing something, but this seems less like an efficient market mechanism for price discovery and capital allocation, and more like a carney game.

Case; gold; Jesse's Café Américain; position limit; set; Silver; Spot Prices.

Bruce Krasting Tue 2010-03-09 17:10 EST

Some Thoughts on Fannie's Horrible Year

Bruce Krasting

Fannie Mae released it's annual and 4th Q numbers after the close on Friday and during one hell of a messy snowstorm. FNM posted a loss of $16.3b for the quarter and $74.4b for the year. An unmitigated disaster. The timing of the release suggests that they were hoping that no one would notice how bad the last twelve months were. There was nothing particularly new in the most recent quarter, just more bad news. What is happening at Fannie is also happening at Freddie Mac and to a different extent at FHA. There are some trends that I think are worth noting...they have moved to restrict lending to better borrowers...all three of the D.C. mortgage lenders are pulling on the credit reins...It will be harder to get a mortgage in one month from today and even harder to get one six moths from today. For me the implications of this are very obvious. Broad RE values will have to go lower, high-end homes will suffer the most in percentage drops...the biggest seller of RE over the past 24 months in America has been the federal government...The vast majority of defaults come because borrowers are underwater. Falling RE prices are the number one contributor to the default cycle...

Bruce Krasting; Fannie's Horrible Year; thought.

zero hedge Wed 2010-02-03 16:00 EST

Russia Urged China To Dump Its Fannie, Freddie Holdings Before GSE Bailout

This is how the cold war will look like in the post-Lehman era (when all the debt risk is held on the public balance sheet): one country urging another to sell a third's bonds. According to Hank Paulson's soon to be released memoir, Russia had urged China to sell its GSE holdings in August 2008 "in a bid to force a bailout of the largest U.S. mortgage-finance companies." China refused... That time. Of course, what has transpired since is that China, through the Fed custodial account, has rotated a vast majority of its GSE holdings into Treasuries, in essence doing just what Pimco's Bill Gross has been doing since the beginning of 2009: offloading hundreds of billions of Fannie and Freddie bonds straight to the Federal Reserve.

Dump; Fannie; Freddie Holdings; GSE bailout; Russia Urged China; Zero Hedge.

Sun 2010-01-31 12:00 EST

Does Economics Violate the Laws of Physics?: Scientific American

SYRACUSE, N.Y.--The financial crisis and subsequent global recession have led to much soul-searching among economists, the vast majority of whom never saw it coming. But were their assumptions and models wrong only because of minor errors or because today's dominant economic thinking violates the laws of physics? ... "Real economics is the study of how people transform nature to meet their needs," said Charles Hall, professor of systems ecology at SUNY-ESF and organizer of both gatherings in Syracuse. "Neoclassical economics is inconsistent with the laws of thermodynamics."

Economics Violate; Law; physical; Scientific American.

Fri 2009-10-23 08:41 EDT

The US as Failed State

Paul Craig Roberts:

The US has every characteristic of a failed state. The US government's current operating budget is dependent on foreign financing and money creation. Too politically weak to be able to advance its interests through diplomacy, the US relies on terrorism and military aggression. Costs are out of control, and priorities are skewed in the interest of rich organized interest groups at the expense of the vast majority of citizens. For example, war at all cost, which enriches the armaments industry, the officer corps and the financial firms that handle the war's financing, takes precedence over the needs of American citizens. There is no money to provide the uninsured with health care, but Pentagon officials have told the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee in the House that every gallon of gasoline delivered to US troops in Afghanistan costs American taxpayers $400.

failed state.

ClubOrlov Wed 2009-08-26 11:24 EDT

Definancialisation, Deglobalisation, Relocalisation

kollapsnik

This talk was presented at The New Emergency Conference in Dublin, on June 11, 2009. ``we all have to prepare for life without much money, where imported goods are scarce, and where people have to provide for their own needs, and those of their immediate neighbours'' ``Most of the wealth is in very few private hands right now. Governments and the vast majority of the people only have debt. It is important to convince people who control all this wealth that they really have two choices. They can trust their investment advisers, maintain their current portfolios, and eventually lose everything. Or they can use their wealth to reengage with people and the land in new ways, in which case they stand a chance of saving something for themselves and their children. They can build and launch lifeboats, recruit crew, and set them sailing.'' 1. Good morning. The title of this talk is a bit of a mouthful, but what I want to say can be summed up in simpler words: we all have to prepare for life without much money, where imported goods are scarce, and where people have to provide for their own needs, and those of their immediate neighbours. I will take as my point of departure the unfolding collapse of the global economy, and discuss what might come next. It started with the collapse of the financial markets last year, and is now resulting in unprecedented decreases in the volumes of international trade. These developments are also starting to affect the political stability of...

ClubOrlov; Definancialisation; Deglobalisation; relocalisation.

Tue 2009-06-16 00:00 EDT

Jesse's Café Américain: Geithner: "Vast Majority" of US Banks Have More Capital Than Needed

Jesse's Café Américain: Geithner: "Vast Majority" of US Banks Have More Capital Than Needed

bank; capitalism; Geithner; Jesse's Café Américain; needed; vast majority.