America seemed (2); America seems blithely unaware (1); Congress seems completely incapable (1); DC chatter class seems (1); debates seemed (1); debt-deficit-hyperinflation hyperventilating neo-liberal terrorists seem unable (1); discipline investor behavior seem (1); economic observers seem convinced (1); fact seem (1); fiat money seemingly work (1); financial sector stocks seem (1); FOMC seemed (1); foreclosure rates seem (1); fund seems (1); Geither plan seems (1); history seem (1); Krugman's analysis seems (1); Lehman collapse seems (1); mainstream seems (1); newest final stage seems (1); Obama Administration seems content (1); observations seem spot (1); observers seem (2); papers seem (1); prudence seems (1); reckless behaviour seem (1); seem ideally suited (1); seem particularly (2); seem particularly inclined (1); seem sound (1); seemed guaranteed (1); seemed increasingly likely (1); seemingly ceaseless heckling (1); seemingly endless procession (1); seemingly inevitable collapse (1); seemingly legitimate entities controlled (1); seemingly legitimate entity (2); seemingly legitimate entity use (1); seemingly quantifiable (1); seems designed (1); seems likely (1); seems particularly twisted (1); seems unfathomable (1); UNG seems (1).
Mon 2010-09-20 18:49 EDT
Many commentators have argued that interbank lending froze following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. This column presents evidence from the fed funds market that, while rates spiked and loan terms became more sensitive to borrower risk, mean borrowing amounts remained stable on aggregate. It seems likely that the market did not expand to meet additional demand for funds.
naked capitalism Fri 2010-09-17 19:42 EDT
...the only way to call TARP a winner is by defining government sanctioned financial fraud as the main metric of results. The finance leaders who are guilty of wrecking much of the global economy remain in power -- while growing extraordinarily wealthy in the process. They know that their primary means of destruction was accounting ``control fraud'', a term coined by Professor Bill Black, who argued that ``Control frauds occur when those that control a seemingly legitimate entity use it as a `weapon' to defraud.'' TARP did nothing to address this abuse; indeed, it perpetuates it. Are we now using lying and fraud as the measure of success for financial reform?...Money was ``repaid'', not because the banks were accumulating massive profits as a consequence of their revival, but largely as an outgrowth of the accounting tricks sanctioned by Congress and the White House in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis...When we lie about accounting and leave zombie banks in the hands of those that looted them and caused trillions of dollars of losses we eviscerate our integrity and our efforts at economic recovery...
Auerback; naked capitalism; Simply Institutionalized Fraud; Success; TARP.
PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM Thu 2010-09-16 16:15 EDT
Here's a contrarian view for you. Credit Suisse says the fears about housing are well overdone. In their analysis they cite 6 different bullish factors that should help to bolster house prices in the USA...The government now owns or guarantees about 70% of US mortgage debt...Valuation is extremely cheap on all measures...Delinquency ratios, charge-off and foreclosure rates seem to have peaked...Housing starts are about 1m below trend demand of housing units -- based on household formation and replacement demand... * Distressed sales (short-sales, foreclosures and REO sales) are less than a third of the total, after peaking at almost half in 2009...Housing as a proportion of GDP is now just 2.2%, compared with a long-run average of 4.5%...
6 BULLISH FACTS; Credit Suisse; Housing; PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM.
billy blog Wed 2010-09-08 19:04 EDT
...several readers have asked me whether I am familiar with the 1943 article by Polish economist Michal Kalecki -- The Political Aspects of Full Employment. The answer is that I am very familiar with the article and have written about it in my academic work in years past. So I thought I might write a blog about what I think of Kalecki's argument given that it is often raised by progressives as a case against effective fiscal intervention...[Job Guarantee concepts briefly summarized]...While orthodox economists typically attack the Job Guarantee policy for fiscal reasons, economists on the left also challenge its validity and effectiveness. In 1943, Michal Kalecki published the Political Aspects of Full Employment, in the Political Quarterly, which laid out the blueprint for socialist opposition to Keynesian-style employment policy. The criticisms would be equally applicable to a Job Guarantee policy...Kalecki's principle objection then seemed to be that ``the maintenance of full employment would cause social and political changes which would give a new impetus to the opposition of the business leaders.''...the major political blockages are no longer those that Kalecki foresaw. The opponents of fiscal activism are a different elite and work against the ``captains of industry'' just as much as they work against the broader working class. The growth of the financial sector and global derivatives trading and the substantial deregulation of labour markets and retrenchment of welfare states has altered things considerably since Kalecki wrote his brilliant article in 1943...
Billy Blog; full employment; Michal Kalecki; political aspects.
Tue 2010-08-24 19:48 EDT
...if a foreclosing party in California, that is not the original lender, claims that payment is due under the note, and that they have the right to foreclose on the basis of a MERS assignment, they're wrong... based on this opinion. The bottom line is that MERS has no authority to transfer the note because it never owned it, and that's a view that even seems to be supported by MERS' own contract, which says that ``MERS agrees not to assert any rights to mortgage loans or properties mortgaged thereby''...some lawyers believe that this ruling is relevant to borrowers across the country as well, because the court cited non-bankruptcy cases related to the lack of authority of MERS, and because this opinion is consistent with prior rulings in Idaho and Nevada Bankruptcy courts on the same issue...
California court ruled; Citibank; collections; foreclose; Mandelman Matters; MER.
RollingStone.com: Matt Taibbi | Taibblog Sat 2010-08-07 21:06 EDT
...Obama's economic team...has seen two fairly major resignations...[Council of Economic Advisers chairwoman Christina Romer] and budget director Pete Orszag...neither of them got along with Larry Summers...Most of the DC chatter class seems to have interpreted the dual resignations as a sign of the ascendant power of the Summers-Geithner axis within the Obama White House...Romer was the Obama administration official who was loudest in her advocacy of a much bigger stimulus, with the idea that the administration's economic strategy should have been based around creating jobs and shaving unemployment as quickly as possible...she was really the only person close to Obama's economic inner circle who isn't a former Clintonite or Rubinite and isn't either a former Wall Street banker or, like Geithner, a public-sector tool of Wall Street...Not that Christina Romer was a savior...but she was at least not completely a Wall Street pod job -- she was pretty much the last inner-circle adviser who wasn't, and now she's gone...
com; Matt Taibbi; Recession; rollingstone; Summers versus Romer; Taibblog.
naked capitalism Thu 2010-08-05 19:44 EDT
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has an intriguing piece at Huffington Post, ``The Regulator Franchise, or the Alan Blinder Problem,'' ...we've come to accept what other eras would view as corruption as business as usual...This may all seem to be so ``dog bites man'' in America so as to no longer elicit any outrage. The famed regulatory revolving door, and all the benefits that former officials and their new private sector masters gain from a legally permitted but socially destructive form of trading of insider know how is now considered business as usual in the US...the ``innovation'' that regulators, academics, consultants, and banks were all advocating more than 20 years ago was regulatory arbitrage...
Alan Blinder; naked capitalism; questionable ethical; Taleb calls.
Credit Writedowns Fri 2010-07-30 15:30 EDT
The economic research staff at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has been busy. Last week we wrote about the New York Fed's Staff Report No. 458 , which discussed the shadow banking system in the United States. Today we refer to two other new reports: Staff Report No. 457 , entitled ``Resolving Troubled Systemically Important Cross-Border Financial Institutions: Is a New Corporate Organizational Form Required?'', and Staff Report No. 463 , ``The Central-Bank Balance Sheet as an Instrument of Monetary Policy.'' After reviewing them, we are left to conclude that these three papers demonstrate that the research staff at the New York Fed is perhaps the most subversive group of working economists currently on the government payroll....The combination of these three papers seems to suggest that the Federal Reserve is conducting a serious re-evaluation of its traditional role in the new financial landscape. No. 458 acknowledges that the shadow banking system is huge, but largely beyond the regulatory reach--and backstopping help--of the Fed. No. 457 suggests that the complexity of a large, modern financial institution is not only a challenge for managers, but is also a challenge for regulators. It is a cri de coeur for simplicity. And No. 463 breaks new ground by explicitly including central bank balance sheet management as a part of the monetary policy model...
Credit Writedowns Thu 2010-07-29 17:00 EDT
It seems that a lot of analysts have caught onto the MMT framework popularized by the late economist Wynne Godley and made topical in this downturn by Rob Parenteau of the Richebacher Letter...Now, it's James Montier's turn...He concluded: ``There is a danger the proposed fiscal tightening in the eurozone will lead to further deflation and economic collapse. The Spanish government faces what Mr Parenteau calls ``the paradox of public thrift'': the less it borrows, the more it will end up owing. It is unfortunate that it has taken a severe global recession to vindicate Prof Godley's macroeconomic analysis. If economic policymakers start to pay more attention to financial balances, they might forestall the next crisis. European politicians might also understand the potentially dreadful consequences of their new-found frugality.'' ...A downward shift in the government's net fiscal deficit means a downward shift in the private sector's net fiscal surplus -- totally doable except for this little thing called debt in places like Spain, the US, Ireland or the UK. Moreover, the savings rate is already incredibly low in countries like the U.S. and the U.K. If the government tries to pare its fiscal deficit, the result will not be less private sector savings to meet the lower public sector deficit, but rather lower aggregate demand and a larger deficit -- that's the paradox of thrift...
New Deal 2.0 Sun 2010-07-25 16:08 EDT
...From direct experience, [1930s Federal Reserve chairman Marriner S. Eccles] realized that bankers like himself, by doing what seemed sound on an individual basis, by calling in loans and refusing new lending in hard times, only contributed to the financial crisis. He saw from direct experience the evidence of market failure. He concluded that to get out of the depression, government intervention, something he had been taught was evil, was necessary to place purchasing power in the hands of the public. In the industrial age, the mal-distribution of income (which was hugely unequal) and the excessive savings for capital investment always lead to the masses exhausting their purchasing power, unable to sustain the benefits of mass production that such savings brought...By denying the masses necessary purchasing power, capital denies itself of the very demand that would justify its investment in new production. Credit can extend purchasing power but only until the credit runs out, which would soon occur without the support of adequate income...Eccles, who never attended university or studied economics formally, articulated his pragmatic conclusions in speeches a good three years before Keynes wrote his epoch-making The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (1936)....Eccles' transformation from a businessman, brought up to believe in survival of the fittest, to his belief in government spending on the neediest can teach us many lessons today...The solution is to start the money flowing again by directing it not toward those who already have a surplus, but to those who have not enough. Giving more money to those who already have too much would take more money out of circulation into idle savings and prolong the depression...Eccles promoted a limited war on poverty and unemployment, not on moral but on utilitarian grounds.
0; Keynes; Keynesian Evangelist; Marriner S. Eccles; new dealing 2.
naked capitalism Sat 2010-07-24 16:34 EDT
This post first appeared on March 27, 2007. ...Telling the difference between the victims and the victimizers, the predators and the prey, and the fraudulent and the defrauded, is getting a lot harder when you have borrowers not required to make down payments able to lie about their incomes in order to buy a home the seller is overpricing in order to take an illegal kickback. The lender is getting defrauded, but the lender is the one who offered the zero-down stated-income program, delegated the drawing up of the legal documents and the final disbursement of funds to a fee-for-service settlement agent, and didn't do enough due diligence on the appraisal to see the inflation of the value. Legally, of course, there's a difference between lender as co-conspirator and lender as mark, utterly failing to exercise reasonable caution, but it's small comfort when the losses rack up. With tongue only partially in cheek, I'm about to suggest a third category of fraud: Fraud for Bubbles...My theory of the Fraud for Bubbles is, in a nutshell, that it isn't that lenders forgot that there are risks. It is that the miserable dynamic of unsound lending puffing up unsustainable real estate prices, which in turn kept supporting even more unsound lending, simply masked fraud problems sufficiently, and delayed the eventual ``feedback'' mechanisms sufficiently, that rampant fraud came to seem ``affordable.'' So many of the business practices that help fraud succeed--thinning backoffice staff, hiring untrained temps to replace retiring (and pricey) veterans, speeding up review processes, cutting back on due diligence sampling, accepting more and more copies, faxes, and phone calls instead of original ink-signed documents--threw off so much money that no one wanted to believe that the eventual cost of the fraud would eat it all up, and possibly more...
China Financial Markets Thu 2010-07-22 10:17 EDT
...No aspect of history seems to repeat itself quite as regularly as financial history. The written history of financial crises dates back at least as far back as the reign of Tiberius, when we have very good accounts of Rome's 33 AD real estate crisis...we have only begun the period of sovereign default. The major global adjustments haven't yet taken place and until they do, we won't have seen the full consequences of the global crisis...there is no threshold debt level that indicates a country is in trouble. Many things matter when evaluating a country's creditworthiness...there are at least five important factors in determining the likelihood that a country will be suspend or renegotiate certain types of debt...With inverted debt, the value of liabilities is positively correlated with the value of assets, so that the debt burden and servicing costs decline in good times (when asset prices and earnings rise) and rise in bad times...Inverted debt structures leave a country extremely vulnerable to debt crises...
Wed 2010-07-21 10:31 EDT
In a recent post, Paul Krugman has criticised James K. Galbraith's view of deficit spending. The latter is obviously influenced by Modern Monetary Theory...Krugman has misunderstood Galbraith...Galbraith understands that there are real constraints on deficit spending, not phantom ``financial'' ones. Moreover, it is perfectly clear that Galbraith is talking about deficit spending during a period of high unemployment and low capacity utilization, and perhaps even in the face of a double dip recession. In his response to Galbraith, Krugman adopts the flawed quantity theory of money and attempts to prove mathematically what is perfectly obvious: that hyperinflation can result from continuous budget deficits that are monetized by the central bank. But, since Modern Monetary Theory already acknowledges that inflation is a real constraint on deficit spending, Krugman's analysis seems rather pointless.
21st century; deficit-spending; Galbraith versus Krugman; Post Keynesian Perspective; social democracy.
naked capitalism Mon 2010-07-19 16:57 EDT
...the new program was to reduce workers' bargaining power, both by combating unions, and by tolerating un and underemployment. Rising worker wages had been seen as crucial to greater prosperity; it was quietly abandoned as a policy goal. But this has profound implications. As rising income inequality demonstrates, the benefits of growth accrued substantially to those at the very top...much of America seems blithely unaware of our diminished role in the world. Likewise, financiers, having wrested massive concessions from national governments (bailouts with almost no concessions demanded of them) if anything view themselves as even more influential than before the crisis. In other words, both the distorted self image of key players and a reluctance to admit the deep seated nature of the problems make a happy resolution unlikely.
1976 Went; 58; matter; naked capitalism; real income growth; Top 1.
Credit Writedowns Thu 2010-06-03 17:56 EDT
The Federal Reserve releases transcripts of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings with a five-year lag (as required by law, the Fed would like to burn them). Transcripts for 2004 meetings were released on April 30, 2010...FOMC transcripts in 2004 confirm the Fed was afraid of markets...The FOMC seemed most concerned that higher rates might interfere with the carry trade. In the sad tale of The Financialization of the United States, the carry trade deserves a chapter...By 2004, the carry trade was a mammoth enterprise of hedge funds and banks. The too-big-to-fail banks were, by now, leveraging their own internally managed hedge funds, managing their own proprietary trading desks, and also lending to highly leveraged hedge funds. Leverage, and, the belief that access to rising levels of credit would never end, pushed up asset values on bank balance sheets -- whether real estate, bonds, stocks, or private-equity. This increased the banks' lending capacity which encouraged banks to lend more...Markets believed asset prices would only go up for many silly reasons. Belief in the Greenspan Put may have been the silliest but also the most influential...Federal Reserve Governor Donald Kohn...told his confreres that Federal Reserve policy was to distort asset prices. He also said this was deliberate and desirable. In other words, distorted asset prices were not an unfortunate consequence of such-and-such Fed policy. The Fed's goal was to distort asset prices...Consumer spending exceeded consumer income...This strategy of fixing asset prices at an artificially high rate to fool the American people into spending money they did not have was diabolical...The manipulation of markets and of the American people has grown worse under Bernanke's chairmanship...
2004 Fed Transcripts; America's; credit writedowns; Diabolical Destruction; Guest Post; Method; wealth.
Tue 2010-06-01 18:54 EDT
The debate seems to be slowing down which means this might be my last response although we will see...I urge all those who are interested in finding out more about the employment guarantee approach to price stabilisation to read our major Report (released in December 2008) called Creating effective local labour markets: a new framework for regional employment policy...productive is not confined to contributing to the profit bottom-line of a capitalist enterprise. There are many things that deliver social returns that will never spin a private profit. Even mainstream economics says optimality should be defined in terms of social costs and benefits. It is just that they never get to that level and slip back always into the private returns mould...It also seems that conservatives in the US are starting to take to modern monetary theory. My colleague Warren Mosler has been giving modern monetary talks to the arch-conservatives in the US at the Tea Party meetings... would advocate that banks be regulated into going to back to being banks and outlawed from being merely commission recipients for securatised package deals etc. I would prevent banks from doing anything other than taking deposits and making loans. All the rest of the behaviour that the banks have been involved in would be outlawed...
zero hedge Mon 2010-05-24 16:38 EDT
It is no secret that the last few weeks saw massive liquidations along all asset classes. The result was a huge outflow across almost all products: Loans, HY Bonds, Municipals, Commodities... all a typical reaction to broad based liquidations. However, note we said "almost" - one class that actually posted a $6.2 billion inflow was equities. Yet not is all as it seems: peeking underneath the hood indicates that the bulk of this inflow, or $10.3 billion, had to do with inflow into ETFs... or rather, just one ETF - the SPY, accounting for $10.1 billion. Did someone prop up the entire equity market last week by massively pushing capital into the most liquid equity proxy available?...
History; Oddest Capital Flow Observation; presenter; Zero Hedge.
Sat 2010-05-22 19:45 EDT
Zimbabwe is the new Weimar Republic. Not! Zimbabwe is the front-line evidence that shows that government deficits will generate hyper-inflation. Not! Zimbabwe is the demonstration of the folly of a fiat monetary system. Not! Zimbabwe is an African country with a dysfunctional government. Yes!...Now at the risk of repeating myself a million times, this is the macroeconomic sequence that defines responsible fiscal policy practice. This is basic macroeconomics and the debt-deficit-hyperinflation hyperventilating neo-liberal terrorists seem unable to grasp it: [Mitchell summarizes modern monetary theory (MMT)]...So a responsible government will attempt to maintain spending levels sufficient to fill any saving....
Sat 2010-05-22 14:06 EDT
America seems to be suffering from the same affliction that has hobbled Japan for so long -- a balance-sheet recession. And no matter how hard the Federal Reserve tries, it won't end until businesses shake their heavy loads....the private-sector companies are no longer maximizing profits; they are minimizing debt. They are minimizing debt because all the assets they bought with borrowed money collapsed in value, but the debt is still on their books, so their balance sheets are all under water. If your balance sheet is under water, you have to repair it. So everybody is in balance-sheet-repair mode...It took us [in Japan] a decade to figure out. People said, "Ah, just run the printing presses, ah, structural reform, ah, just privatize the post office, this and that, and everything will be fine." Nothing worked. This is pneumonia, not the common cold. When people are minimizing debt because of their balance-sheet problems, monetary policy is largely useless. If your balance sheet is under water, in negative equity, you are not going to borrow money at any interest rate, and no one will lend you money, either...
Barrons; com; interview; Japanese Rx; keep spending; Richard Koo; West.
Wed 2010-05-19 11:56 EDT
...how limiting the so-called progressive policy input has become. One could characterise it as submissive and defeatist. But the main thing I find problematic is that its compliance is based on faulty understandings of the way the monetary system operates and the opportunities that a sovereign government has to advance well-being. Progressives today seem to be falling for the myth that the financial markets are now the de facto governments of our nations and what they want they should get. It becomes a self-reinforcing perspective and will only deepen the malaise facing the world...When the neo-liberals cry about the burdens of the public deficits that the future generations will have to bear they are talking nonsense. The actual burden we are leaving for our children and their children is the dead-weight losses of real income and the opportunities that that income would have provided them...
The Wall Street Examiner Sun 2010-05-09 10:02 EDT
...While non-financial domestic corporate profits have shrunk from a Korean War inspired 11% of GDP to average around 5% of GDP since 1970, the financial sector's profits have been growing...The love affair with finance and disdain for what, during the tech boom, we called the "bricks and mortar" industry- and admittedly a failure, by some in those industries, to accept the transition to maturity- has inspired, for want of a better word, envy in the non-financial sector. While financial sector stocks seem to levitate on their own, non-financial sector stocks, if intent can be inferred from behavior, are believed to require a boost. I suspect the use of options as payment has something to do with this as well...Additionally, the non-financial sector, since the mid-80s has- a true sign of envy- opted to copy finance, by breaking into that field. GE Capital and GMAC Financial are two prominent examples...To paraphrase Nixon, "we're all Ponzis, now."
zero hedge Sun 2010-05-09 09:45 EDT
A year ago, before anyone aside from a hundred or so people had ever heard the words High Frequency Trading, Flash orders, Predatory algorithms, Sigma X, Sonar, Market topology, Liquidity providers, Supplementary Liquidity Providers, and many variations on these, Zero Hedge embarked upon a path to warn and hopefully prevent a full-blown market meltdown. On April 10, 2009, in a piece titled "The Incredibly Shrinking Market Liquidity, Or The Black Swan Of Black Swans" we cautioned "what happens in a world where the very core of the capital markets system is gradually deleveraging to a point where maintaining a liquid and orderly market becomes impossible: large swings on low volume, massive bid-offer spreads, huge trading costs, inability to clear and numerous failed trades. When the quant deleveraging finally catches up with the market, the consequences will likely be unprecedented, with dramatic dislocations leading the market both higher and lower on record volatility." Today, after over a year of seemingly ceaseless heckling and jeering by numerous self-proclaimed experts and industry lobbyists, we are vindicated...absent the last minute intervention of still unknown powers, the market, for all intents and purposes, broke. Liquidity disappeared. What happened today was no fat finger, it was no panic selling by one major account: it was simply the impact of everyone in the HFT community going from port to starboard on the boat, at precisely the same time...It is time for the SEC to do its job and not only ban flash trading as it said it would almost a year ago, but get rid of all the predatory aspects of high frequency trading, which are pretty much all of them...HFT killed over 12 months of hard fought propaganda by the likes of CNBC which has valiantly tried to restore faith in our broken capital markets. They have now failed in that task too. After today investors will have little if any faith left in the US stocks, assuming they had any to begin with. We need to purge the equity market structure of all liquidity-taking parasitic players. We must start today with High Frequency Trading...
courtesy; day; dies; high frequency trade; Market; Zero Hedge.
