billy blog Wed 2010-09-29 10:15 EDT

Budget deficits do not cause higher interest rates

Bill Mitchell

...An often-cited paper outlining the ways in which budget deficits allegedly push up interest rates is -- Government Debt -- by Elmendorf and Mankiw (1998 -- subsequently published in a book in 1999). This paper was somewhat influential in perpetuating the mainstream myths about government debt and interest rates...Their depiction of...Ricardian equivalence...alleges that: ``the choice between debt and tax finance of government expenditure is irrelevant...[because]...a budget deficit today...[requires]...higher taxes in the future...'' ...I have dealt with this view extensively...Ignoring the fact that the description of a government raising taxes to pay back a deficit is nonsensical when applied to a fiat currency issuing government, the Ricardian Equivalence models rest [on] several key and extreme assumptions about behaviour and knowledge. Should any of these assumptions fail to hold (at any point in time), then the predictions of the models are meaningless. The other point is that the models have failed badly to predict or explain key policy changes in the past. That is no surprise given the assumptions they make about human behaviour. There are no Ricardian economies. It was always an intellectual ploy without any credibility to bolster the anti-government case that was being fought then (late 1970s, early 1980s) just as hard as it is being fought now...So where do the mainstream economists go wrong? At the heart of this conception is the [pre-Keynesian] theory of loanable funds...where perfectly flexible prices delivered self-adjusting, market-clearing aggregate markets at all times...Mankiw claims that this ``market works much like other markets in the economy''...[assuming] that savings are finite and the government spending is financially constrained which means it has to seek ``funding'' in order to progress their fiscal plans. The result competition for the ``finite'' saving pool drives interest rates up and damages private spending. This is what is taught under the heading ``financial crowding out''...Virtually none of the assumptions that underpin the key mainstream models relating to the conduct of government and the monetary system hold in the real world...When confronted with increasing empirical failures, the mainstream economists introduce these ad hoc amendments to the specifications to make them more realistic...The Australian Treasury Paper [used advanced econometric analysis to find that] domestic budget deficits do not drive up interest rates. The long-run effect...is virtually zero. The short-run effect is zero!...toss out your Mankiw textbooks...

Billy Blog; budgets deficit; caused higher Interest rate.

naked capitalism Fri 2010-09-10 18:46 EDT

Auerback: China is Still a Renegade Nation

Marshall Auerback

...In response to Beijing's mind boggling increase in real credit in the first half of 2009,Chinese fixed investment in industrial tradables rose dramatically...By the second quarter of this year some -- but only some -- of this new capacity began to come on stream. Further production responses to this new round of Chinese overinvestment lie ahead...But because of the potential protectionist threat and the underlying fragility at the heart of China's capex boom (along with the corruption of its political class), the change in status might prove to be ephemeral, much as Japan's vaunted rise to number 2 ultimately gave way to a post-bubble morass...in July Chinese domestic demand may have gone negative in real terms. It was only a huge improvement in net trade that kept production growth significantly positive on a sequential basis...The fact that China has the greatest fixed investment excess ever suggests that, when it unwinds, there will be a nasty economic adjustment in China...

Auerback; China; naked capitalism; Renegade Nation.

Clusterstock Sat 2010-09-04 11:16 EDT

Your Textbooks Lied To You: The Money Multiplier Is A Myth

The following comes from an excellent new paper from the Fed. The paper describes the myth of the money multiplier and is an absolute must read for anyone who is trying to fully understand the current environment. It turns much of textbook economics on its head and describes in large part why the bank rescue plan and the idea of banks being reserve constrained is entirely wrong: ``Simple textbook treatments of the money multiplier give the quantity of bank reserves a causal role in determining the quantity of money and bank lending and thus the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. This role results from the assumptions that reserve requirements generate a direct and tight linkage between money and reserves and that the central bank controls the money supply by adjusting the quantity of reserves through open market operations. Using data from recent decades, we have demonstrated that this simple textbook link is implausible in the United States for a number of reasons...bank loan supply does not respond to changes in monetary policy through a bank lending channel, no matter how we group the banks...''

ClusterStock; Money Multiplier; myth; textbook lying.

Mon 2010-08-16 13:54 EDT

Could The US Become Another Ireland? >> The Baseline Scenario

Peter Boone and Simon Johnson

As Greece acts in an intransigent manner, refusing to act decisively despite deep fiscal difficulties, the financial markets look on Ireland all the more favorably. Ireland is seen as the poster child for prudent fiscal adjustment among the weaker eurozone countries...Ireland's perceived ``success'' is partly due to its draconian fiscal cuts...Ireland's difficulties arose because of a massive property boom financed by cheap credit from Irish banks...Today roughly 1/3 of the loans on the balance sheets of banks are non-performing or ``under surveillance''...The government...guaranteed all the liabilities of banks and then began injecting government funds...it is planning to buy the most worthless assets from banks and pay them government bonds in return. Ministers have also promised to recapitalize banks than need more capital. The ultimate result of this exercise is obvious: one way or another, the government will have converted the liabilities of private banks into debts of the sovereign (i.e., Irish taxpayers)...The government is gambling that GDP growth will recover to over 4% per year starting 2012 -- and they still plan further major expenditure cutting and revenue increasing measures each year until 2013...The latest round of bank bailouts (swapping bad debts for government bonds) dramatically exacerbates the fiscal problem...

Baseline Scenario; Becomes; Ireland.

Sat 2010-07-24 15:55 EDT

The Path of Unemployment

Dean Baker

...The US, unlike most western European countries, is not set up to sustain long periods of high unemployment. Its system of social welfare is very much centered on work. This is most evident with health care. The vast majority of non-elderly people get their health care through employer provided health insurance. Individual policies tend to be very expensive, especially for people with any history of medical problems. When people lose their jobs, they generally lose their health care coverage as well...While the downturn has led to high and prolonged unemployment in the US, it has not had quite the same effect in Europe...several European countries, most notably Germany and the Netherlands, have adopted a policy of work sharing to limit unemployment...Under work-sharing schemes, instead of just paying workers for being completely unemployed, the government pays workers for being partly unemployed...Germany has been able to use this system to keep its unemployment rate from rising at all in the recession...In the US workers are seeing near double-digit unemployment with the implied loss of income and benefits, as well as the loss of self-esteem and social status that is associated with long-term unemployment. By contrast, workers in Germany and the Netherlands are adjusting to the falloff in demand with shorter workweeks and longer vacations...

path; unemployment.

China Financial Markets Thu 2010-07-22 10:17 EDT

Do sovereign debt ratios matter?

Michael Pettis

...No aspect of history seems to repeat itself quite as regularly as financial history. The written history of financial crises dates back at least as far back as the reign of Tiberius, when we have very good accounts of Rome's 33 AD real estate crisis...we have only begun the period of sovereign default. The major global adjustments haven't yet taken place and until they do, we won't have seen the full consequences of the global crisis...there is no threshold debt level that indicates a country is in trouble. Many things matter when evaluating a country's creditworthiness...there are at least five important factors in determining the likelihood that a country will be suspend or renegotiate certain types of debt...With inverted debt, the value of liabilities is positively correlated with the value of assets, so that the debt burden and servicing costs decline in good times (when asset prices and earnings rise) and rise in bad times...Inverted debt structures leave a country extremely vulnerable to debt crises...

China Financial Markets; sovereign debt ratios matter.

zero hedge Fri 2010-05-21 13:45 EDT

"If The US Can Do It, So Can We": Japan To Keep Pumping Cash And Monetizing Debt Until Deflation Goes Away

And with that Japan joins the competitive devaluation currency race...Speaking before lawmakers BOJ governor Masaaki Shirakawa, who recently said Japan was powerless to fight deflation on its own, has changed his tune, and today said that Japan will print the kitchen sink if it has to to beat "stubborn deflation."...Shirakawa noted that monetization is happily chugging along: "We are buying JGBs in order to inject ample funds into financial markets in a stable manner and we are buying Y21.6 trillion of JGBs annually" and he made it clear that adjusting for scale differences, the Japanese monetization program is three times faster than the Fed's Treasury QE...

Deflation Goes Away; Japan; Keep Pumping Cash; Monetize Debt; Zero Hedge.

The Money Game Tue 2010-02-16 16:49 EST

Inflation Protected Bonds Murdered As PIMCO And BlackRock's Hyperinflation Fears Flounder

Investors are increasingly giving up on hyperinflation bets. For example, investors are willing to buy standard U.S. treasury bonds that pay just 3.69% yield. That doesn't leave room for much inflation...The niche market of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS, bonds that adjust their yield to inflation) is giving up on its inflation concerns as well. As this market is too small for major central bank investment, it's far harder to argue away the lack of inflation it forecasts.

BlackRock's Hyperinflation Fears Flounder; Inflation Protected Bonds Murdered; Money game; PIMCO.

Thu 2009-11-19 10:14 EST

Business & Technology | Part two | WaMu: Hometown bank turned predatory | Seattle Times Newspaper

David Heath

What few people knew was that bank executives crafted a radical new business strategy in 2003 that was intended to boost profits. The new WaMu used huge sales commissions and misleading marketing to hawk risky and overpriced loans to borrowers. In short, WaMu became one of the nation's biggest predatory lenders. The strategy eventually failed, not only bringing down Washington Mutual but deceiving borrowers, costing thousands their homes. In particular, the bank promoted as its "signature loan" a complex product known as the option ARM. This adjustable-rate mortgage, much like a credit card, gave borrowers the choice of making low minimum payments. But that option didn't cover the interest and only dug them deeper into debt.

business; Hometown bank turned predatory; part; Seattle Times Newspaper; Technology; WaMu.

naked capitalism Tue 2009-10-27 11:13 EDT

Guest Post: Global Rebalancing: The G20 and Bernanke Versions

Richard Alford, a former economist at the New York Fed

What was achieved at the G20 meeting in Pittsburgh to help restore global economic balance? The short answer: nothing of any substance as reflected in the conspicuous absent of any mention of two subjects, i.e. currency adjustments and protectionism.

Bernanke Versions; G20; Global Rebalancing; Guest Post; naked capitalism.

The Big Picture Fri 2009-10-23 09:03 EDT

Dick Alford on Opportunities Lost by the Fed

Richard Alford (via Chris Whalen)

Against a backdrop of continued financial fragility and extraordinary policy actions, policymakers are discussing re-balancing global growth, restoring financial stability, and the future of the Dollar as the world's reserve currency. In 2005, Edwin Truman proposed a list of policy measures that if followed would have reduced the US external imbalance and placed the reserve status of the Dollar on better footing. Truman's proposal differed from the standard litany of US fiscal discipline, Dollar adjustment, and increased demand in surplus countries. It called upon the Federal Reserve to slow the growth in US demand. More recent research, by Shin and Adrian, suggests that if the Fed had heeded Truman's prescription, then monetary policy would have also mitigated the recent turmoil in financial markets...

Big Picture; Dick Alford; Fed; opportunity lost.

Credit Writedowns Wed 2009-10-14 12:12 EDT

Currencies pegged to the dollar under pressure to drop peg

...as the dollar continues to weaken, those countries with pegs will be under pressure to drop their peg or to revalue their pegs higher. The Bloomberg video linked below explains. The dichotomy whereby the adjustment process is done only through free-floating currencies is inherently unstable -- and invites a nationalistic response. A busted peg in any major U.S. trading partner's currency is likely to have a very negative psychological impact on currency markets and severe knock-on effects... [dollar losing reserve status]

credit writedowns; currency pegs; Dollar; drop peg; pressures.

Calculated Risk Tue 2009-09-22 09:30 EDT

Inspector General: FDIC saw risks at IndyMac in 2002

CalculatedRisk

From the Inspector General Report: Between 2001 and 2003, [Division of Insurance and Research] DIR risk assessments and quarterly banking profiles identified concerns about a number of issues, including:*** consumers' ever-increasing debt load, the expansion of adjustable rate mortgages, and a potential housing bubble; *** subprime and high loan-to-value (HLTV) lending as a risk in the event that the United States economy suffered a significant recession; and *** pricing and modeling charge-off risk with respect to the originate-to-sell model of the mortgage business.

2002; Calculated Risk; FDIC saw risks; IndyMac; Inspector generally.

Tue 2009-06-16 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Guest Post: The Imminent Disinformation Schism

``naive, easily-manipulated, small-time mom and pop investors, who only care about looking at their daily yahoo finance screens and 401(k) statements...and the forward looking taxpayers, who see the upcoming budget deficit fiasco, the social security ponzi scheme, the Medicare/Medicaid debacle, the ridiculous underfunding in public and corporate pension funds, the rising city and state taxes, the shuttering factories, the rising unemployment, the plummeting American production base, the "seasonally" upward-adjusted economic data coupled with consistently downward revised prior economic releases, the increasing savings rate and the multi trillion discrepancy in consumer purchasing power.'' Time contributing author Douglas McIntyre declares end to 2008 banking crisis

Guest Post; Imminent Disinformation Schism; naked capitalism.

Sat 2008-01-05 00:00 EST

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Unemployment Soars as Private Sector Jobs Contract

understating unemployment; birth/death adjustments added 1.3 million "jobs" since 2007-02

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; Private Sector Jobs Contract; Unemployment Soars.

Fri 2007-11-02 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Jobs Report From Alternate Universe

overstating employment; birth/death adjustments

Alternate university; jobs reporting; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Tue 2007-08-28 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: America: Banana Republic Watch

(2007-05-06); "taking steps towards being a small-minded, elite-dominated, sham democracy"; overstating employment; ministry of truth; overstating GDP by hedonic adjustment; birth/death adjustments to employment; "Banana Republic Indicators"

America; Banana Republic Watch; naked capitalism.

Tue 2007-08-28 00:00 EDT

An inflation debate brews over intangibles at the mall

by Timothy Aeppel, The Wall Street Journal; 2003-05-09; understating inflation; hedonic adjustment

inflation debate brews; intangibles; Mall.

Tue 2007-08-28 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Grossly Distorted Procedures

by Mike Shedlock (mish); GDP overstated; hedonic adjustment

Grossly Distorted Procedures; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Sun 2007-07-01 00:00 EDT

Inflation of the nation -- it's there. - Nov. 14, 2003

Inflation of the nation -- it's there. By Justin Lahart; 2003-11-4; understating inflation; housing adjustments using "owners' equivalent rent"

14; 2003; Inflation; nation; Nov.

Sun 2007-07-01 00:00 EDT

Shadow Government Statistics: 3. Consumer Price Index (UPDATE)

by Walter J. Williams; understating inflation; 2004-09-22; updated 2006-10-01; hedonic inflation adjustments

3; consumer price index; Shadow Government Statistics; Update.

Sun 2007-07-01 00:00 EDT

SVB Asset Management - Investment Strategy Outlook

The Hedonic Wars, 2006-10-26; understating inflation; Bill Gross claims inflation understated; hedonic adjustments

Investment Strategy Outlook; SVB Asset Management.