zero hedge Mon 2009-10-12 10:10 EDT

Albert Edwards Warns Of Western Authorities' Positioning For Dismal Failure, As US Becomes Japan Redux

Albert Edwards continues doling out common sense; everyone, and the market in particular, continues ignoring it...The post-bubble whiplash in the economic and profits cycle is exactly a replay of Japan?'s experience. They too had seen an extended period of strong and steady growth going into the peak of the bubble. It took many years, repeated painful lapses back into recession, and sharp declines in equity markets before investors fully de-rated valuations low enough to reflect a new new paradigm...To gauge whether the world economy can surprise and escape this balance sheet recession, keep a very close eye on the bank lending numbers.

Albert Edwards Warns; Becomes Japan Redux; dismal failure; positive; Western authorities; Zero Hedge.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Mon 2009-10-12 09:22 EDT

One Hand Clapping Theory Analyzed

Michael Shedlock

Numerous people have asked me to comment on Chris Martenson's article The Sound of One Hand Clapping - What Deflationists May Be Missing. Chris Writes: ...``Trillions in probable and provable losses quietly exist, out of sight, on the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve and other financial institutions. If they ever come out of hiding and onto the books, I think the deflationists will be proven correct beyond all doubt. But let me ask this: What prevents the authorities from simply storing them out of sight forever?...I am now wondering if they cannot keep this up indefinitely.'' ...In a credit based economy, the odds of a sustainable rebound without bank credit expanding, and consumers participating is not very good. Even if one mistakenly assumes that the recent rally is a result of pretending, should we count on sustained success now more so than a measurement of stock prices in April of 1930, or any of Japans' four 50% rallies? I think not. Pretending cannot accomplish much other than prolonging the agony for decades. This is the message of Japan. Moreover, the US is arguably is worse shape than Japan because our problems are unsustainable consumer debt, high unemployment, and massive retail sector overcapacity. Those are structural problems that no amount of pretending in the world can possibly cure. In due time, the market will focus on those problems.

hand clapping theory analyzed; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Tue 2009-10-06 21:12 EDT

The demise of the dollar

Robert Fisk

In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning -- along with China, Russia, Japan and France -- to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar...Sun Bigan, China's former special envoy to the Middle East, has warned there is a risk of deepening divisions between China and the US over influence and oil in the Middle East. "Bilateral quarrels and clashes are unavoidable," he told the Asia and Africa Review. "We cannot lower vigilance against hostility in the Middle East over energy interests and security."...

demise; Dollar.

THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST Sun 2009-09-20 12:29 EDT

CHINA WILL BE A BIGGER BUBBLE THAN JAPAN >> Most Recent Stories >> THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST

SocGen analysts Dylan Grice says the Chinese economy has many similarities to the Japanese economy before it imploded in the 90's...the real cause of Japan's deflation is probably more demographic than debt-related...Japan has been the first industrial economy to begin demographic contraction. Indeed, thanks to Deng Xiaoping's 1979 one child policy, China will soon face the same problem...Japan's experience also hints at what may be the future catalyst unleashing this frenzy: capital account liberalisation. Financial history is filled with financial liberalisations gone wrong and Japan's bubble can be traced directly to the removal of controls on international capital flows and banking in the early 1980s. Seeking a larger international role for the renminbi, China is now, albeit tentatively, embarking on a similar path. Full liberalisation, when it occurs, could be the starting gun for the biggest bubble the world has ever seen.

bigger bubble; China; Japan; pragmatic capitalists; recent story.

Jesse's Café Américain Sun 2009-09-13 12:32 EDT

Japan: The Triumph of Crony Corporatism Over the Individual

Jesse

The former Japanese Central Banker Toshiro Muto says that '"in principle equity values should be set by the market and authorities should avoid manipulating prices because doing so would hurt the stock market's reputation." Apparently in this case 'in principle' means 'theoretically, as is convenient," because Mr. Muto goes on to recommend that the Japanese Central Bank and government throw principles aside and buy stocks to support the Japanese banking cartel, which has crippled that country for the past fifteen to twenty years.

crony corporatism; individual; Japan; Jesse's Café Américain; triumph.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:16 EDT

China Makes Biggest Cut in US Treasury Assets Since 2000

Jesse

One has to wonder how long the UK, Japan and the US can keep supporting each other's crony capitalist oligopolies. China DailyChina cuts US Treasury holdings in June2009-08-18NEW YORK: China reduced its holdings of US Treasury debt in June by the biggest margin in nearly nine years, according to a US Treasury Department report issued on Monday.China cut its net holdings by 3.1 percent to $776.4

2000; China Makes Biggest Cut; Jesse's Café Américain; treasury assets.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:11 EDT

China Makes Biggest Cut in US Treasury Assets Since 2000

Jesse

One has to wonder how long the UK, Japan and the US can keep supporting each other's crony capitalist oligopolies. China DailyChina cuts US Treasury holdings in June2009-08-18NEW YORK: China reduced its holdings of US Treasury debt in June by the biggest margin in nearly nine years, according to a US Treasury Department report issued on Monday.China cut its net holdings by 3.1 percent to $776.4

2000; China Makes Biggest Cut; Jesse's Café Américain; treasury assets.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:11 EDT

China Makes Biggest Cut in US Treasury Assets Since 2000

Jesse

One has to wonder how long the UK, Japan and the US can keep supporting each other's crony capitalist oligopolies. China DailyChina cuts US Treasury holdings in June2009-08-18NEW YORK: China reduced its holdings of US Treasury debt in June by the biggest margin in nearly nine years, according to a US Treasury Department report issued on Monday.China cut its net holdings by 3.1 percent to $776.4

2000; China Makes Biggest Cut; Jesse's Café Américain; treasury assets.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:07 EDT

China Makes Biggest Cut in US Treasury Assets Since 2000

Jesse

One has to wonder how long the UK, Japan and the US can keep supporting each other's crony capitalist oligopolies. China DailyChina cuts US Treasury holdings in June2009-08-18NEW YORK: China reduced its holdings of US Treasury debt in June by the biggest margin in nearly nine years, according to a US Treasury Department report issued on Monday.China cut its net holdings by 3.1 percent to $776.4

2000; China Makes Biggest Cut; Jesse's Café Américain; treasury assets.

Wed 2009-04-01 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Japan Exports Fall By 46% in January, Producing Record Trade Deficit

46; January; Japan Exports Fall; naked capitalism; Producing Record Trade Deficit.

Thu 2009-02-26 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: Martin Wolf: Rethinking the Lessons of Japan's Debt Unwind

Japan's Debt Unwind; Lessons; Martin Wolf; naked capitalism; rethink.

Tue 2009-02-24 00:00 EST

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Exports Plunge In China, Japan, South Korea

China; exporter plunged; Japan; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; South Korea.

Tue 2009-02-24 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: Veneroso: Japan on the Edge of the Abyss

abyss; edge; Japan; naked capitalism; Veneroso.

Fri 2009-01-16 00:00 EST

CHINESE CHECKMATE << Culture of Life News

``There is a game of chicken developing here: both China and Japan hold more than $1.5 trillion in US paper and whoever drops it off the cliff first, will beat the one who hesitates...Will they do it? I would think so! This will probably happen after Saudi Arabia falls to revolutionaries...It is the focal point of all of bin Ladens works and dreams. And it will happen if oil drops below $30 a barrel.'' ``Store shelfs are packed with goods. But let that not fool us! These are the detritus from deals made at least a year ago if not longer. There is nothing in the pipeline. Once the shelves are cleared of goods, there will be few replacements.'' ``The US and EU refused to police our bankers and brokers. So the Communist Chinese will do this for us. No one will bank with the West. They will bank with China if China has good controls...And our money will have Mao grinning at us. We deserve this.''

CHINESE CHECKMATE; Culture; Life News.

Thu 2009-01-15 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: So Now We Are Trying to Emulate Japan's Lost Decade?

Emulate Japan's Lost Decade; naked capitalism; trying.

Fri 2008-11-07 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: A Page From Japan's Playbook? Bernanke Proposes "Floor" Under MBS Market

Bernanke proposed; floor; Japan's Playbook; MBS Market; naked capitalism; page.