Fri 2010-10-08 20:54 EDT
BofA Halts All Foreclosure Sales - WSJ.com
Bank of America is placing a moratorium on all foreclosure proceedings and sales in the U.S., amid political pressure on U.S. banks to examine foreclosure-documentation problems.
pressures Topic in The Credit Debacle Catalog
avoiding pressure (1); begin pressuring Japan (1); Buying pressure (1); capital pressures (2); downward pressure (2); downward wage pressure (1); euro face pressures (1); Freddie Pressured (1); inflationary pressure (3); intensifying pressure (1); lobbying pressure (1); material pressure (1); Political pressure (3); pressure distorted oil figures (1); pricing pressure (2); put enormous pressures (1); put pressure (2); putting downward pressure (1); severe pricing pressure (1); steady downward pressure (1); stoking inflationary pressure (1); strategic pressures (1); tightened pressure (1); triggered rising political pressure (1); Tuesday put pressure (1).
China Financial Markets Wed 2010-09-15 19:28 EDT
What do banking crises have to do with consumption?
For the next several years, as Keynes reminded us in the 1930s, savings is not going to be a virtue for the world economy. It is more likely to be a vice. In order to regain growth the world desperately needs less savings and more private consumption, but I think it is not going to get nearly enough to generate growth. Why? Because in all the major economies the banking systems are largely insolvent, or about to become so, and desperately need to rebuild capital...With all of the major economies facing banking crises, they must clean up the banks by forcing the household sector to pay the bill. This will put downward pressure on household disposable income and wealth for many years...For twenty years Japanese consumption growth has limped along [due to paying for] their banking crisis...Chinese consumption dropped from a very-low 45% of GDP ten years ago to an astonishing 36% last year just as -- no coincidence -- Chinese households were forced to clean up the last banking crisis...
PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM Mon 2010-08-23 19:08 EDT
WHEN WILL THE BOND AUCTIONS BEGIN TO FAIL?
There's great concern over the sustainability of US deficits. Most of the fear mongering, hyperventilating, flat earth economists believe foreigners will at some point stop ``funding'' our spending. The hyperinflationist crowd likes to keep a very close eye on US government bond auctions hoping foreign demand for debt will dry up, auctions will begin to fail and interest rates (and inflationary pressures) will surge as the United States effectively defaults (which is technically impossible) and dies the death that so many of these people wish upon it. Unfortunately, 99% of the inflationistas have a very poor understanding of reserve accounting so their arguments have not only been wrong for a very long time, but they never really carried any weight to begin with (as one reader eloquently put it -- ``at some point being right has to count for something'' -- the inflationistas have been horribly wrong throughout this downturn). So what is really happening when the government auctions off bonds?...
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Tue 2010-08-03 12:11 EDT
Should China Dump Dollars for Commodities? What about the "Nuclear Option" of Dumping Treasuries? Can Global Trade Collapse?
Every time there is a little blip by China in its purchasing or holding of US treasuries, hyperinflationists come out of the woodwork ranting about the "Nuclear Option" of China dumping treasuries en masse. Such fears are extremely overblown for several reasons...[Michael Pettis argues] the real problem is exactly the opposite of what most are ranting about: ``The problem facing the US and the world is not that China may stop purchasing US Treasury obligations. The problem is exactly the opposite. The major capital exporting countries -- China, Germany, and Japan -- are desperate to maintain or even increase their net capital exports, which are simply the flip side of their trade surpluses.'' ...If consumers decide to stop buying goods from China there is almost nothing China can do about it...Chinese exporters are already under severe price pressures...pray tell what is stopping a collapse in global trade? Nothing as far as I can see. It all depends on consumer attitudes. Certainly Bernanke and Congress will do their best efforts to get banks to lend and consumers to spend, it is by no means a certainty the Fed will succeed...consumer attitudes towards spending and debt will determine the global trade imbalance math...The result may be a collapse in global trade, not an inflationary event to say the least.
China Dumps dollar; Commodities; dumped Treasury; global trade collapsed; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; nuclear option.
naked capitalism Fri 2010-07-23 17:08 EDT
Deficits Do Matter, But Not the Way You Think
In recent months, a form of mass hysteria has swept the country as fear of ``unsustainable'' budget deficits replaced the earlier concern about the financial crisis, job loss, and collapsing home prices. What is most troubling is that this shift in focus comes even as the government's stimulus package winds down and as its temporary hires for the census are let go. Worse, the economy is still -- likely -- years away from a full recovery. To be sure, at least some of the hysteria has been manufactured by Pete Peterson's well-funded public relations campaign, fronted by President Obama's National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform -- a group that supposedly draws members from across the political spectrum, yet are all committed to the belief that the current fiscal stance puts the nation on a path to ruinous indebtedness...[however] the notion of ``fiscal sustainability'' or ``solvency'' is not applicable to a sovereign government -- which cannot be forced into involuntary default on debts denominated in its own currency...If we can get beyond the fears of national insolvency then there are many issues that can be fruitfully discussed. While inflation will not be a problem for many years, price pressures could return some day. Impacts of exchange rate instability are important, at least for some nations. Unemployment is a chronic problem, even at business cycle peaks. Aging does raise serious questions about allocation of resources, especially medical care. Poverty and homelessness exist in the midst of relative abundance. Simply recognizing that our sovereign government cannot go bankrupt does not solve those problems, but it does make them easier to resolve...
Mon 2010-05-24 15:16 EDT
World Order, Failed States, and Terrorism: Part 1: The Failed-State Cancer
...Failed and collapsed states are a structural trait of the contemporary international system, and not a temporary dysfunction of the Westphalian world order of sovereign states. Failed states are not always weak states. They are sometimes strong states that have voluntarily forfeited basic state functions as a matter of ideology, or allowed them to be usurped by special-interest groups. Strong failed states are states that possess powerful military/police power for advancing the narrow economic interests of a small class of citizens while sacrificing a significant segment of the population as failed market victims. In the US, socio-economic Darwinism is celebrated as indispensable for the survival of the economy in the market place, while scientific theories of evolution are challenged by Creationism in public schools. Those who believe God created man apparently do not believe he created all men as equals...World order, then, is the network of economic and strategic pressures that both holds a system together and constrains its members to act in acceptable ways through commonly accepted rules and institutions. When those rules and institutions are set by a hegemon or an empire, failed-state status will be defined by those rules and institutions. When the rules of balance of power are dominant, state failure is a different phenomenon...
failed state; Failed-State Cancer; Part 1; terror; World ordering.
Credit Writedowns Sat 2010-05-22 20:55 EDT
MMT: Yes Virginia, There is a Difference Between Greece and the US
...The cries of the deficit hawks grow louder: Repent all ye fiscal profligates, before the ``day of reckoning'' comes. Let's dial down the Biblical hysteria a wee bit while there's still time for rational debate. The market's recent response to the intensifying pressures in the euro zone suggests that investors are beginning to differentiate between countries that are sovereign issuers of currency, such as the US or Japan, and non-sovereign issuers, such as Greece or any other nations in the euro zone...That the US has the reserve currency is an irrelevant consideration here. The key distinction remains user vs. creator. The euro zone nations are part of the former; Canada, Australia, the UK, Japan and the US are representatives of the latter...Using ``PIIGS'' countries as analogues to the US or the UK, as Rogoff, Ferguson and countless other commentators do, is wrong. Their faulty analysis comes as a result of the deficit critics' failure to distinguish between the monetary arrangements of sovereign and non-sovereign nations. Any sovereign government (none within the EMU enjoy that status any longer) can deal with a collapse in revenue and an increase in outlays from a financial perspective without invoking the sort of deadlocks that are now crippling the EMU zone...Trying to engineer a reduction in the deficit via austerity programs (or freezes or whatever else one might like to call them) at a time when private spending is still insufficient to maintain adequate real GDP growth is a recipe for disaster. It will increase the deficit...
naked capitalism Thu 2010-05-13 18:21 EDT
An Analysis of the Thursday Meltdown
...Contrast the reports at the Times and the Wall Street Journal, that the officialdom is pouring through the records and is still puzzled after a full three days on the case, versus this analysis produced by a lone sell-side analyst (who sadly must remain anonymous) roughly 24 hours after the implosion...``...it was not a sudden, random surge of volume from a fat finger that overwhelmed the market. It was a steady onslaught of selling that pressured the market lower in order to catch up with the carnage taking place in the credit markets and the currency markets...this episode exposed structural flaws in how a trade is implemented (think orphaned algo orders) and it exposed the danger of leaving market making up to a network of entities with no mandate to ensure the smooth and orderly functioning of the market (think of the electronic market makers and high freqs who can pull bids instantaneously as opposed to a specialist on the floor who has a clearly defined mandate to provide liquidity).''
Tue 2010-04-20 10:58 EDT
Get the Yuan Right, Prove Pundits Wrong: Hype over an 'imminent' increase in yuan value ignores China's greater need for higher interest rates and fewer bubbles
Unless China exits its economic stimulus quickly, the nation's inflation rate could rise to double digit levels sooner than many expect. The right sequence of events for a proper response to inflation would be to raise interest rates and then, if necessary, move the yuan exchange rate. But acting on the currency first, especially in small steps, would further inflate China's property bubble and inflation, potentially leading to a major economic crisis in two years. A small increase in the yuan's value would fail to resolve two pressing problems: inflationary pressure at home, and political pressure from the United States. Moreover, a small appreciation would attract hot money, stoking inflationary pressure...
bubble; higher interest rate; hype; imminent; increased; proving pundits wrong; Yuan right; yuan value ignores China's greater need.
naked capitalism Fri 2010-03-19 15:02 EDT
SEC, Fed Alerted By Merrill of Lehman Balance Sheet Games in March 2008
...The Valukas report shows both regulators were monitoring Lehman on a day-to-day basis shortly after Bear's failure. They recognized that it has a massive hole in its balance sheet, yet took an inertial course of action. They pressured a clearly in denial Fuld to raise capital (and Andrew Ross Sorkin's accounts of those efforts make it clear they were likely to fail) and did not take steps towards any other remedy until the firm was on the brink of collapse (the effort to force a private sector bailout as part of a good bank/bad bank resolution)...Merrill warned both the SEC and the Fed in March 2008 that Lehman was engaging in balance sheet window dressing of a serious enough nature for it to put pressure on Merrill (as in it was making Merrill look worse relative to the obviously impaired Lehman)...
Fed Alerted; Lehman Balance Sheet Games; March 2008; Merrill; naked capitalism; SEC.
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Sun 2010-02-07 18:15 EST
Nonperforming Loans in China Rise to "Trillions of Renminbi"
Inquiring minds are questioning the solvency of the Chinese banking system. Please consider China Defaulting Loans Soar, Insolvency Lawyer Says. Non-performing loans in China have risen into the ``trillions of renminbi'' because of poor lending practices, an insolvency lawyer said...The US, led by Hillary Clinton and president Obama, is putting enormous pressure on China to float the RMB, in expectation that it would rise and US exports would soar. I believe that if China floated the RMB on the Forex markets, it might crash.
China rises; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; nonperforming loans; renminbi; trillion.
The Guardian World News Fri 2009-11-20 09:45 EST
US pressure distorted oil figures, says whistleblower
Exclusive: Watchdog's estimates of reserves inflated says top official The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying. The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves. The allegations raise serious questions about the accuracy of the organisation's latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply to be published tomorrow -- which is used by the British and many other governments to help guide their wider energy and climate change policies.
Guardian World News; pressure distorted oil figures; says whistleblowers.
zero hedge Tue 2009-11-03 19:57 EST
Guest Post: Systemic Risk is All About Innovation and Incentives: Ed Kane
...we present the views of our friend and mentor Ed Kane of Boston College, who argues that the problem with the financial regulatory framework is not the law, regulation nor even the regulators, but rather the confluence of poorly aligned incentives and financial innovation... The financial crisis of 2007-2009 is the product of a regulation-induced short-cutting and near elimination of private counterparty incentives to perform adequate due diligence along the chain of transactions traversed in securitizing and re-securitizing risky loans (Kane, 2009a). The GLBA [Gramm-Leach-Bliley Financial Modernization Act of 1999] did make it easier for institutions to make themselves more difficult to fail and unwind. But it did not cause due-diligence incentives to break down in lending and securitization, nor did it cause borrowers and lenders to overleverage themselves. Still, the three phenomena share a common cause. Excessive risk-taking, regulation-induced innovation, and the lobbying pressure that led to the GLBA trace to subsidies to risk-taking that are protected by the political and economic challenges of monitoring and policing the safety-net consequences of regulation-induced innovation. These challenges and the limited liability that their stockholders and counterparties enjoy make it easy for clever managers of large institutions to extract implicit subsidies to leveraged risk-taking from national safety nets (Kane, 2009b)...To reduce the threat of future crises, the pressing task is not to rework bureaucratic patterns of financial regulation, but to repair defects in the incentive structure under which private and government supervisors manage a nation's financial safety net.
Ed Kane; Guest Post; incentives; innovation; systemic risk; Zero Hedge.
Jesse's Café Américain Mon 2009-10-26 09:51 EDT
Trend Change: Official Purchases from Central Banks Supporting Gold Price
Starting in 1989, the world's Central Banks became steady net sellers of their gold reserves which had been accumulated over the years...And now for something completely different, it appears that the world's central banks may once again become net buyers of gold, after a twenty year campaign of selling gold from their vaults into the public markets, creating a steady downward pressure on the price of gold, that contributed to its long bear market.
Central Banks Supporting Gold Price; Jesse's Café Américain; officially Purchase; trend change.
Credit Writedowns Wed 2009-10-14 12:12 EDT
Currencies pegged to the dollar under pressure to drop peg
...as the dollar continues to weaken, those countries with pegs will be under pressure to drop their peg or to revalue their pegs higher. The Bloomberg video linked below explains. The dichotomy whereby the adjustment process is done only through free-floating currencies is inherently unstable -- and invites a nationalistic response. A busted peg in any major U.S. trading partner's currency is likely to have a very negative psychological impact on currency markets and severe knock-on effects... [dollar losing reserve status]
credit writedowns; currency pegs; Dollar; drop peg; pressures.
The Big Picture Wed 2009-10-14 11:36 EDT
Andy Xie: Here We Go Again
Former Morgan Stanley Analyst Andy Xie explains why China is a potential bubble: [Consider] the US Savings and Loans crisis of the late 1980s and early 1990s. The US Federal Reserve kept monetary policy loose to help the banking system. The dollar went into a prolonged bear market. During the descent, Asian economies that pegged their currencies to the dollar could increase money supply and lending without worrying about devaluation, but the money couldn't leave home due to the dollar's poor outlook, so it went into asset markets. When the dollar began to rebound in 1996, Asian economies came under tightening pressure that burst their asset bubbles. The collapsing asset prices triggered capital outflows that reinforced asset deflation. Asset deflation destroyed their banking systems. In short, the US banking crisis created the environment for a credit boom in Asia. When US banks recovered, Asian banks collapsed. Is China heading down the same path? There are many anecdotes to support the comparison. Property prices in Southeast Asia became higher than those in the US, but ``experts'' and government officials had stories to explain it, even though their per capita income was one-tenth that of the US. Their banks also commanded huge market capitalizations, as financial markets extended their growth ad infinitum. The same thing is happening in China today. When something seems too good to be true, it is. World trade -- the engine of global growth -- has collapsed. Employment is still contracting throughout the world. There are no realistic scenarios for the global economy to regain high and sustainable growth. China is an export-driven economy. Bank lending can support the economy for a short time, however, stocks are as expensive as during the heydays of the last bubble. Like all previous bubbles, this one, too, will burst.
Thu 2009-10-08 17:10 EDT
Recovering from Neoliberal Disaster - Why Iceland and Latvia Won't (and Can't) Pay
Can Iceland and Latvia pay the foreign debts run up by a fairly narrow layer of their population? The European Union and International Monetary Fund have told them to replace private debts with public obligations, and to pay by raising taxes, slashing public spending and obliging citizens to deplete their savings. Resentment is growing not only toward those who ran up these debts -- Iceland's bankrupt Kaupthing and Landsbanki with its Icesave accounts, and heavily debt-leveraged property owners and privatizers in the Baltics and Central Europe -- but also toward the neoliberal foreign advisors and creditors who pressured these governments to sell off the banks and public infrastructure to insiders. Support in Iceland for joining the EU has fallen to just over a third of the population, while Latvia's Harmony Center party, the first since independence to include a large segment of the Russian-speaking population, has gained a majority in Riga and is becoming the most popular national party. Popular protests in both countries have triggered rising political pressure to limit the debt burden to a reasonable ability to pay...
naked capitalism Thu 2009-10-08 16:47 EDT
Latvia in Crisis; Threatens to Stiff Swedish Banks With Mini-Jubilee
Latvia and to a lesser extent Estonia and Lithuania had a massive and unsustainable current account deficit...Foreign benefactors have just put the choke collar on Latvia. The government was unable to roll over its debt this week...Sweden on Tuesday put pressure on the tiny Baltic nation to fulfill required spending cuts, threatening to withhold payments [from a] euro rescue loan put together by Nordic countries...But Latvia does not appear to be ready to accede to Sweden's demands. The immediate cause for concern is that Latvia will simultaneously devalue its currency and provide a mechanism for its consumers to partially default on mortgages held by foreign banks.
Crisis; Latvia; Mini-Jubilee; naked capitalism; Stiff Swedish Banks; threatens.
Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-10-08 16:28 EDT
Gold: Until the System Is Reformed and Trust Is Restored
Gold has obviously broken out of a big inverse Head and Shoulder formation, possibly an ascending triangle if you prefer that for reliability. In combination, as they often are, this is a powerful sign of buying pressure, accumulation and a sharp rise in price...despite the obvious efforts of the monied interests to disparage it publicly while accumulating it privately, is rising because the US dollar is being used badly, is being weakened by the failing schemes of a corrupt combination of the government and financial interests...gold is telling us...the era of the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency is over...
gold; Jesse's Café Américain; reform; restore; Systems; trust.
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Sun 2009-09-20 11:23 EDT
Yellen Calls For "U" Shaped Recession and Another Jobless Recovery
...excerpts from Janet Yellen's Outlook for Recovery in the U.S. Economy: ...the complex topic of inflation. In my career, I have never witnessed a situation like the one that exists now, when views about inflation risks have coalesced into two diametrically opposed camps. On the one hand, one group worries about the long-term inflationary implications of a seemingly endless procession of massive federal budget deficits. At the same time, others fear that economic slack and downward wage pressure are pushing inflation below rates that are considered consistent with price stability and even raising the specter of outright deflation... My personal belief is that the more significant threat to price stability over the next several years stems from the disinflationary forces unleashed by the enormous slack in the economy.
Jobless Recovery; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; Shaped Recession; U; Yellen called.
Fri 2009-05-08 00:00 EDT
Terms of Service
Global Crisis `Vastly Worse' Than 1930s, Taleb Says (Update1) - Bloomberg.com; ``Gold, copper and other assets that China will like are the best investment bets as currencies including the dollar and euro face pressures''
Satyajit Das's Blog - Fear & Loathing in Financial Products Tue 2009-04-21 00:00 EDT
Satyajit Das's Blog - Fear & Loathing in Financial Products: Credit Default Swaps -- Exercises in Surrealism
Satyajit Das's Blog - Fear & Loathing in Financial Products: Credit Default Swaps - Exercises in Surrealism; CDS payouts are placing a material pressure on the price of underlying bonds and loans exacerbating broader credit problems ``The CDS market is also complicating restructuring of distressed loans as all lenders do not have the same interest in ensuring the survival of the firm. A lender with purchased protection may seek to use the restructuring to trigger its CDS contracts''
Credit Default Swap; exercised; fears; financial products; loath; Satyajit Das's Blog; surreal.
Wed 2009-04-01 00:00 EDT
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Who Bears the Burden for a $3 Trillion Mistake?
``government is avoiding an outright nationalization of Citigroup hoping to avoid pressure by foreign governments for the US to make good on a full repayment of bank bonds''
3 Trillion Mistake; Bear; burden; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.
Tue 2008-09-23 00:00 EDT
Winter (Economic & Market) Watch >> Massive Bailout? Hardly, a Massive Tar Pit Instead
Winter (Economic & Market) Watch >> Massive Bailout? Hardly, a Massive Tar Pit Instead; paulson bailout plan; ``work closely with the FOH (friends of Hank) on the Tar Pit scarfs, and also pressure and push the carrion off the cliff into the Tar Pit.''
economic; hard; Market; massive bailout; Massive Tar Pit Instead; watch; winter.
Tue 2008-08-19 00:00 EDT
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Steve Saville On The US Dollar And Gold
"US$ is very under-valued relative to the euro on a purchasing-power-parity basis"; "recent intermediate-term trend reversals in the commodity markets removed the pressure that had previously been preventing the US dollar from moving back towards fair valuation."
Dollar; gold; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; Steve Saville.
Fri 2007-12-07 00:00 EST
Money Matters: The NYT Has Really Stupid Editorials About Finances
by Elaine Meinel Supkis; "expecting China to begin pressuring Japan into a joint currency rise based on secret protocols which concerns military presence in Asia of the US fleets"