RollingStone.com: Matt Taibbi | Taibblog Sat 2010-08-07 21:06 EDT

Are We In a Recession or Not? [Summers versus Romer]

Matt Taibbi

...Obama's economic team...has seen two fairly major resignations...[Council of Economic Advisers chairwoman Christina Romer] and budget director Pete Orszag...neither of them got along with Larry Summers...Most of the DC chatter class seems to have interpreted the dual resignations as a sign of the ascendant power of the Summers-Geithner axis within the Obama White House...Romer was the Obama administration official who was loudest in her advocacy of a much bigger stimulus, with the idea that the administration's economic strategy should have been based around creating jobs and shaving unemployment as quickly as possible...she was really the only person close to Obama's economic inner circle who isn't a former Clintonite or Rubinite and isn't either a former Wall Street banker or, like Geithner, a public-sector tool of Wall Street...Not that Christina Romer was a savior...but she was at least not completely a Wall Street pod job -- she was pretty much the last inner-circle adviser who wasn't, and now she's gone...

com; Matt Taibbi; Recession; rollingstone; Summers versus Romer; Taibblog.

Sat 2010-07-24 16:14 EDT

Krugman versus Ferguson: Round Two -- Telegraph Blogs

Jeremy Warner

Not since Ken Rogoff's famous attack on Joe Stiglitz has the dismal science of economics provoked such pompous, self-important, personalised squabbling. Professors Paul Krugman and Niall Ferguson, of course, have form; they've been at it on and off for nearly a year now over the efficacy of deficit spending in fighting the downturn, and today they return to the fray...

Krugman versus Ferguson; Telegraph Blogs.

Wed 2010-07-21 10:31 EDT

Social Democracy for the 21st Century: A Post Keynesian Perspective: Galbraith versus Krugman on Deficit Spending

In a recent post, Paul Krugman has criticised James K. Galbraith's view of deficit spending. The latter is obviously influenced by Modern Monetary Theory...Krugman has misunderstood Galbraith...Galbraith understands that there are real constraints on deficit spending, not phantom ``financial'' ones. Moreover, it is perfectly clear that Galbraith is talking about deficit spending during a period of high unemployment and low capacity utilization, and perhaps even in the face of a double dip recession. In his response to Galbraith, Krugman adopts the flawed quantity theory of money and attempts to prove mathematically what is perfectly obvious: that hyperinflation can result from continuous budget deficits that are monetized by the central bank. But, since Modern Monetary Theory already acknowledges that inflation is a real constraint on deficit spending, Krugman's analysis seems rather pointless.

21st century; deficit-spending; Galbraith versus Krugman; Post Keynesian Perspective; social democracy.

Fri 2010-07-16 18:09 EDT

A Blistering Ride Through Hell: Key Property Charts to Make Sense of This Week's Housing Numbers and This Year's Financial Crisis - Michael David White -- Seeking Alpha

Michael David White

Housing inventory rising, housing price versus housing inventory may imply dramatic price falls; deleveraging is a myth; mortgage bubble; negative equity; forecasts total fall in property prices about half over, another 20% to go.

Blistering Ride; hell; Key property charts; make sense; Michael David White; Seeking Alpha; Week's Housing Numbers; year's financial crisis.

naked capitalism Thu 2010-05-13 18:21 EDT

An Analysis of the Thursday Meltdown

...Contrast the reports at the Times and the Wall Street Journal, that the officialdom is pouring through the records and is still puzzled after a full three days on the case, versus this analysis produced by a lone sell-side analyst (who sadly must remain anonymous) roughly 24 hours after the implosion...``...it was not a sudden, random surge of volume from a fat finger that overwhelmed the market. It was a steady onslaught of selling that pressured the market lower in order to catch up with the carnage taking place in the credit markets and the currency markets...this episode exposed structural flaws in how a trade is implemented (think orphaned algo orders) and it exposed the danger of leaving market making up to a network of entities with no mandate to ensure the smooth and orderly functioning of the market (think of the electronic market makers and high freqs who can pull bids instantaneously as opposed to a specialist on the floor who has a clearly defined mandate to provide liquidity).''

Analysis; naked capitalism; Thursday Meltdown.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2010-01-07 19:07 EST

Class Warfare American Style

Jesse

Matt Taibbi's reaction to the ZeroHedge story with regard to Turbo Tim's lifting of the government support on Christmas Eve for the GSE's was exactly my own. You can read it in its entirety here. What he does not overtly say is that this is class warfare, and it is becoming worse in the US than at any time since the 1930's. And the outcome of this will be a fundamental test of the US commitment to its republic. The media stokes the viewing public into emotionally-based and virulently distracting arguments about liberal versus conservative, while the gentried class skins them all alive.

Class Warfare American Style; Jesse's Café Américain.

naked capitalism Mon 2009-12-28 16:40 EST

Will Continued Stealth Bailout of Housing Produce Unwanted Side Effects?

The Treasury Department...considerably increased its Freddie and Fannie safety net, by removing all limits on the amounts on offer (an increase from a ceiling of $400 billion) and simultaneously allowing the two GSEs to increase their balance sheets near term. Previously, they had been required to shrink their portfolios by 10% per annum; now it is their ceiling which will be lowered by 10% a year, and that ceiling is much higher than their current exposures ($900 billion versus roughly $760 billion for Freddie and $770 billion for Fannie as of the end of November)...So one has to conclude that the agencies might well (ahem, are likely to) throw their firepower behind the ``prop up the mortgage market'' program, particularly with Obama's ratings plunging and mid-term elections coming this year. But if this comes to pass, what might the collateral damage be?

Continued Stealth Bailout; Housing Produce Unwanted Side Effects; naked capitalism.

zero hedge Mon 2009-12-28 15:05 EST

Guest Post: Deficit Doubles for Government's Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.

TraderMark

...let's take a look at the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp - another Ponzi scheme in a country now running a series of them, full tilt, concurrently. Also known as "prosperity". The PBGC bailout will just be a pebble versus what could be faced in the greater pension system as a whole... $1 trillion?

deficit double; Government's Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp; Guest Post; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Tue 2009-10-13 20:47 EDT

Guest Post: The REAL Battle Over America's Banking System

George Washington of Washington's Blog

...the battle isn't between bankers versus outsiders. It is between the giant New York money-centered banks and the rest of the country...monetary reformers argue that letting banks create credit and money and then charge high interest rates creates massive levels of debt for states and taxpayers. They argue that the power to create money should be reclaimed by the government and taken away from the private banks...

America's banking system; Guest Post; naked capitalism; real battle.

Dr. Housing Bubble Blog Tue 2009-10-13 20:03 EDT

No Country for Old Jobs: 10 Charts Showing the Fragile Recovery. Home Sales, Buying versus Renting, Unemployment, and Real Economy Data.

...Until jobs start showing up, any talk of a rebounding housing market is moot especially with this entire artificial stimulus still bouncing around the economy. And collapsing tax revenues are not a good sign. I don't buy the jobless recovery argument and the government tends to agree. If all is well, why is the U.S. government and Fed buying $1.25 trillion in agency debt to lower mortgage rates, putting in place an $8,000 tax credit, boosting car sales with gimmicks, encouraging risky low money down loans with FHA insured products, and extending unemployment insurance to a record 92 weeks in states like California? Do these things sounds like policies of a booming economy?

10 Charts Showing; Buying versus Renting; country; Dr. Housing Bubble Blog; Fragile recovery; home Sale; old job; Real Economy Data; unemployment.

naked capitalism Mon 2009-10-12 10:22 EDT

FHA: Next Bailout?

...The FHA has ALWAYS been in the low down payment business! It has long offered loans requiring only 3% down, long before ``subprime'' was part of the lexicon. Historically, FHA loans did not show default rates materially worse than prime loans. That experience has been replicated by not for profit lenders in low income neighborhoods...the big difference from how the FHA once did business versus its subprime competitors was.....the FHA screened loans on an individual basis. The process was time consuming and somewhat intrusive. Private lenders were faster, easier, and (lo and behold) less stringent.

Bailout; FHA; naked capitalism.

naked capitalism Sun 2009-10-11 17:06 EDT

Asian Countries Intervene to Prop Up Greenback (Dollar Bind Edition)

An unannounced but evidently coordinated effort to arrest or at least slow the fall of the dollar is underway. The Financial Times indicated that Asian central banks were aggressive dollar buyers on Thursday, but the information came via currency traders rather than an official pronouncement. Thailand, Malaysia and Taiwan made substantial purchases; Hong Kong and Singapore also intervened today. The action may also have a secondary objective of rejiggering their currency values versus China's, since China repegged the renminbi against the dollar...

Asian Countries Intervene; Dollar Bind Edition; greenback; naked capitalism; prop.

Jesse's Café Américain Sat 2009-10-10 11:52 EDT

Beta Monster: The Most Dangerous Banks In the World

Jesse

The most leveraged bank by far is the-investment-bank-which-must-not-be-named. It is followed by J.P. Morgan on a percentage basis, but JPM is far larger nominally than these charts indicate because of its much larger capital base. Its in the nature of the difference between a cardshark (GS) and a pawnshop (JPM). Or perhaps just the capital requirements of the short versus the long con. [Goldman Sachs astronomical credit exposure, trading revenue, derivatives exposure]

Beta Monsters; Dangerous Banks; Jesse's Café Américain; world.

Tue 2009-09-29 11:10 EDT

Steeling for a Currency Deal in Pittsburgh? - Up and Down Wall Street Daily - Barrons.com

RANDALL W. FORSYTH

An options play suggests somebody expects the G20 to hatch a scheme to stabilize currencies. Duct tape for the dollar?...Reports John F. Brady, futures expert at MF Global, there was a big seller of "volatility" in the euro versus the dollar Thursday...What's curious, Brady explains, is that vols on the euro already are low, so it's hard to see them going much lower...Which got me to wondering if the volatility seller was thinking the G20 would do something to force volatility lower -- that is, stabilize exchange rates...Notwithstanding the calls for a replacement of the dollar as the main reserve currency, gold isn't it, according to long-time market observer David P. Goldman,..."Even a rather wobbly reserve currency is better than gold," he writes as his alter ego, Spengler, whom he "channels" for Asia Times (www.atimes.com.) "Gold is far less liquid than U.S. Treasury securities, costly to store and insure, and above all more volatile in price...gold isn't an investment but an insurance policy against a breakdown of the function of the world financial system."

Barrons; com; currency deal; Pittsburgh; steel; Wall Street Daily.

zero hedge Wed 2009-09-02 20:01 EDT

Money On The Sidelines... 1930 Versus 2009

There is a saying, that everything new is just well-forgotten old. The same apparently is especially applicable to propaganda that seeks to part fools with their money. Today's brownie point question is: was the statement below just uttered by Larry Kudlow, or did it appear first more than 79 years ago? There's a large amount of money on sidelines waiting for investment opportunities; this should be felt in market when ``cheerful sentiment is more firmly intrenched.'' Economists point out that banks and insurance companies ``never before had so much money lying idle.'' If you answered "the latter" you were correct. It first appeared on August 28, 1930 to be precise (and who knows how many times prior...

1930 Versus 2009; money; sidelined; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Tue 2009-09-01 19:43 EDT

Oil And Treasuries Paint A Divergent Inflation Picture, Yet Is It Even Relevant?

...bonds are reflecting a deflationary environment while commodities and stocks are betting on inflation...Yet...both stocks and bonds are potentially being manipulated to a point where they bear no reflection of the underlying assets, whose values they are purported to represent...is the debate about inflation versus deflation based on asset trends really relevant: a bizarro market dominated by animal spirits and intraday greed has ceased to indicate any long-term trends and our advice is to simply enjoy it for what it is - a ponzi casino...

Divergent Inflation Picture; Oil; relevant; Treasuries Paint; Zero Hedge.

Tue 2009-02-24 00:00 EST

Jesse's Café Américain: Is Money Supply a Relative Absolute?

Jesse's Café Américain: Is Money Supply a Relative Absolute? Cassandra; inflation versus deflation

Jesse's Café Américain; money supply; Relative Absolute.

Tue 2009-02-24 00:00 EST

Jesse's Café Américain: Inflationists vs. Deflationists: Economics as Bread and Circuses

Jesse's Café Américain: Inflationists vs. Deflationists: Economics as Bread and Circuses; inflation versus deflation

bread; circus; deflationist; economic; INFLATIONISTS; Jesse's Café Américain.

Tue 2009-02-24 00:00 EST

Jesse's Café Américain: Inflation v. Deflation and the Yield Curve: Jesse's Lifetime Trading Plan

Jesse's Café Américain: Inflation versus Deflation and the Yield Curve: Jesse's Lifetime Trading Plan; ``we could see short term rates spike up to 15 to 20 percent with much of the longer yield curve at 12+%''

deflation; Inflation; Jesse's Café Américain; Jesse's Lifetime Trading Plan; yield curve.

Tue 2009-02-24 00:00 EST

Cassandra Does Tokyo: Inflation(ists) vs. Deflation(ists) - Part II

inflation versus deflation part 2

Cassandra; deflation; Inflation; ist; parts II; Tokyo.

Mon 2009-02-16 00:00 EST

Bronte Capital: Why the Federal Reserve should LITERALLY throw money out of helicopters

Cassandra on inflation versus deflation

Bronte Capital; Federal Reserve; helicopters; literally throw money.

Mon 2009-02-16 00:00 EST

Cassandra Does Tokyo: Inflation v. Deflation

Cassandra Does Tokyo: Inflation versus Deflation

Cassandra; deflation; Inflation; Tokyo.

Mon 2009-01-19 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: Wolf Versus Pettis on US Stimulus, Fiscal Deficit (Not for the Fainthearted)

Fainthearted; Fiscal deficit; naked capitalism; stimulus; Wolf Versus Pettis.

Tue 2008-07-22 00:00 EDT

Winter (Economic & Market) Watch >> Sirens

Winter (Economic & Market) Watch >> Sirens; Food processor Smithfield; corn versus hogs arbitrage

economic; Market; siren; watch; winter.

Wed 2008-07-02 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Oil: Goldman Versus Faber, Data on Improving Supply/Demand Conditions

;

data; Goldman Versus Faber; Improving Supply/Demand Conditions; naked capitalism; Oil.

Fri 2008-06-20 00:00 EDT

Walter Bagehot Was Wrong - June 19, 2008 - The New York Sun

Walter Bagehot Was Wrong, by James Grant - June 19, 2008 - The New York Sun; Jim Grant: structuring mortgages for central bank deposit in special liquidity facilities will result in a new cycle of currency debasement; Walter Bagehot versus Thomson Hankey on central banks, moral hazard, fairness, and ready money

2008; June 19; New York Sun; Walter Bagehot; wrong.

Mon 2008-03-31 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Who's Holding The Bag?

Buffett versus Greenspan on derivatives; "the development of credit derivatives has contributed to the stability of the banking system", or "rapidly growing trade in derivatives poses a "mega-catastrophic risk" for the economy"; 2007-07-04

bag; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; S hold.

Fri 2007-12-07 00:00 EST

Bear In Mind > The Big Rate Freeze: Good or bad for MBS?

Bear In Mind > The Big Rate Freeze: Good or bad for MBS? traditional NPV analysis modification versus foreclosure to be disregarded in favor of fast track loan modifications

bad; Bear; Big Rate Freeze; good; MBS; mind.

Tue 2007-11-20 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: On the Perils of Quick and Dirty Estimates (Ken Houghton Subprime Edition)

estimating projected foreclosures versus banking writedowns

Dirty Estimates; Ken Houghton Subprime Edition; naked capitalism; peril; quickly.