zero hedge Sun 2009-10-11 16:45 EDT

Interview With A Mad Hedge Fund Trader

...Mad Hedge: Stay away from natural gas. The volatility will kill you. If you are a masochist, then buy it only when it's cheap, on big dips, in the $3/MBTU range. In the last three years, thanks to the new ``fracting'' technology used in oil shales, we have discovered a 100 year supply of natural gas sitting under the US, and the producers have not been able to cut back fast enough. So now we have a supply glut, and we are almost out of storage. This is what took us down from $13 to $2.40 in 18 months. The lack of hurricanes has not helped demand either. Producers have been cutting back like crazy, trying to balance supply and demand, with a breakeven point of $2. They need a cold winter to help bring things back into balance. If the industry gets organized, then gas can become the 20 year bridge we need, until energy alternatives kick in. That makes me a big supporter of the ``Pickens Plan.''

interview; Mad Hedge Fund Trader; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Sun 2009-10-11 16:17 EDT

€300 Million Later: Deutsche Bank's Invoice On The Remains Of The Jefferson Smurfit Group

...in a span of 10 years, DB has made almost half a billion dollars while the underlying assets have deteriorated so much that the American business has had to file for Chapter 11, while the remainder is stuck picking up the pieces at a deplorable return to shareholders.

Deutsche Bank's Invoice; Jefferson Smurfit Group; later; remains; Zero Hedge; €300.

zero hedge Sat 2009-10-10 14:13 EDT

Albert Edwards On The Upcoming Economic "Abyss"

As always, Albert Edwards provides a solid dose of economic observations based on facts, not hope...unless you truly believe that the stock market is its own isolated bubble, which many do, at some point cash from assets will have to support equity and debt valuations. And once the government cash funding vacuum pops, the market-economy divergence will also collapse. At that point, every dollar used by the government via stimulus and Federal Reserve pumps will have an equal and opposite effect on stocks, thereby throwing America not just into a debt funding crisis, but a complete economic and capital market tailspin. Alas, it appears impossible to prevent this, as the administration and the Federal Reserve Chairman are dead set on executing their inherently flawed experiment...and the American middle class.

abyss; Albert Edwards; upcoming economic; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Sat 2009-10-10 13:09 EDT

Former Fannie Chief Credit Officer Says FHA Is $54 Billion Underwater

In keeping with the warnings presented by Kyle Bass warned that the entire housing bubble is now being ported over to the taxpayer's balance sheet, Edward Pinto, a former chief credit officer for Fannie Mae claims that the Federal Housing Administration will likely require a major taxpayer bailout "in the next 24 to 36 months" as it is likely to incur $56 billion more in losses than it can withstand.

54; Fannie Chief Credit Officer Says FHA; underwater; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Sat 2009-10-10 11:57 EDT

The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet: An Update

Ben S. Bernanke

...the Federal Reserve has faced two historically unusual constraints on policy. First, the financial crisis, by increasing credit risk spreads and inhibiting normal flows of financing and credit extension, has likely reduced the degree of monetary accommodation associated with any given level of the federal funds rate target, perhaps significantly. Second, since December, the targeted funds rate has been effectively at its zero lower bound (more precisely, in a range between 0 and 25 basis points), eliminating the possibility of further stimulating the economy through cuts in the target rate. To provide additional support to the economy despite these limits on traditional monetary policy, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Board of Governors have taken a number of actions and initiated a series of new programs that have increased the size and changed the composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. I thought it would be useful this evening to review for you the most important elements of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, as well as some aspects of their evolution over time. As you'll see, doing so provides a convenient means of explaining the steps the Federal Reserve has taken, beyond conventional interest rate reductions, to mitigate the financial crisis and the recession, as well as how those actions will be reversed as the economy recovers...

Federal Reserve's balance sheet; Update; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Tue 2009-09-22 16:22 EDT

Top Goldman Lobbyist Barred From Communicating With House's Financial Services Committee

In a rare example of testicular fortitude, Barney Frank has "banished" Goldman's Michael Pease from communicating with the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee. According to Reuters, the Goldmanite, and former committee staffer, has been "asked" not to interfere with the Congressional panel for a period of 12 months. According to Barney Frank aide Steven Adamske: "Mr. Paese left our offices in September 2008, and was not allowed to communicate with any committee members or staff for a period of one year due to normal ethics restrictions that apply to all House and Senate employees. Out of an abundance of caution due to the nature of financial regulation reform, the chairman has extended Mr. Paese's recusal for another year." Pease "was the committee's deputy staff director before he quit to work for the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association as a lobbyist. Goldman hired him in April.

communications; House's Financial Services Committee; Top Goldman Lobbyist Barred; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Mon 2009-09-21 15:41 EDT

Federal Reserve Accounts For 50% Of Q2 Treasury Purchases

The degree of intermediation by the Federal Reserve in the issuance of US Treasuries hit a record in Q2, accounting for just under 50% of all net UST issuance absorption. This is a startling number, as the Fed's $164 billion in Q2 Treasury purchases dwarfs the combined foreign/household UST purchases of $101 billion and $29 billion, respectively, over the same time period. In fact, the Fed was a greater factor in UST demand than all three traditional players combined: Foreigners, Households and Primary Dealers, which amounted to a $158 billion in net Q2 purchases. This dramatic imbalance puts a lot of question marks over how the upcoming hundreds of billions in incremental Treasury purchases will be soaked up, now that QE only has $15 billion of capacity for USTs...

50; Federal Reserve Accountable; Q2 Treasury Purchases; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Mon 2009-09-21 14:35 EDT

Atlanta Fed On Federal Reserve Monetization Activities; $1.1 Trillion In USTs And Agency MBS Purchased To Date

The Fed now has $15 billion in purchasing power left under the Treasury component of QE. Of the $1,250 billion in MBS projected to be bought by the end of the year, the Fed was already purchased $840 billion, leaving $410 billion in budgeted purchases over the next three and a half months: about $125 billion per month. On September 15, the Fed purchased $2.05 billion in Treasuries, roughly in the 10-17 year sector; on September 16, it purchased $1.799 billion in the one-to-two year sector. It has purchased a total of $285.2 billion of Treasury securities through September 16.The Fed plans to purchase $300 billion by the end of October, or about six weeks from now, which makes for a pace of about $2.5 billion in purchases per week.

1; 1 Trillion; Agency MBS Purchases; Atlanta Fed; date; Federal Reserve Monetization Activities; ust; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Sat 2009-09-19 16:59 EDT

Guest Post: Damien Hoffman Exclusive Interview With Alan Grayson

Exclusive Interview: Congressman Alan Grayson Talks Fed Transparency and Missing Money, from Damien Hoffman, of Wall St. Cheat Sheet...[The Fed is] performing a truly remarkable, surreptitious transfer of wealth from public to private hands. They are taking their ability to print money and shore up failed banks. They are simply stuffing money into the pockets of private interests...the Federal Reserve continuously puts all of us on the hook for decisions they make to play favorites with private interests to the tune of trillions of dollars.

Alan Grayson; Damien Hoffman Exclusive Interview; Guest Post; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Thu 2009-09-17 09:42 EDT

Excess Liquidity Game Is Coming To An End

David Rosenberg notes M1, M2 and MZM have commenced contracting at an alarming rate: M1 fell 1.0% in the August 24th week and over the past four weeks is down at a 6.5% annual rate. M2 has contracted in each of the past four weeks too and over that time has slipped at a 12.2% annualized pace, which is a near-record decline. We see the same trend in the broad MZM money measure -- off at a 15.8% annual rate over the past month. Bank credit also remains in a fundamental downtrend -- contracting at an epic 9% annualized pace over the past four weeks. So for the first time in the post-WWII era, we have deflation in credit, wages and rents, and from our lens this is a toxic brew that in the end will ensure that the focus on capital preservation and income orientation will be the winning strategy over a strict reliance on capital appreciation.

comes; ending; Excess liquidity game; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Sun 2009-09-13 15:41 EDT

Mortgage Bankers Association Q2 Delinquency Rate Update

Even the traditionally optimistic MBA is starting to acknowledge the reality of accelerating deterioration within commercial real estate, as well as the delinquency pick up in multi-family loans by the Agencies...Life Insurance companies are dramatically misreporting their delinquency rates in an apparent effort to present an overoptimistic picture, with the blessing of the administration and the accountants

Mortgage Bankers Association Q2 Delinquency Rate Update; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Sun 2009-09-13 15:40 EDT

Mortgage Bankers Association Q2 Delinquency Rate Update

Even the traditionally optimistic MBA is starting to acknowledge the reality of accelerating deterioration within commercial real estate, as well as the delinquency pick up in multi-family loans by the Agencies...Life Insurance companies are dramatically misreporting their delinquency rates in an apparent effort to present an overoptimistic picture, with the blessing of the administration and the accountants

Mortgage Bankers Association Q2 Delinquency Rate Update; Zero Hedge.

Bruce Krasting Fri 2009-09-04 19:39 EDT

On Fed Intervention and the Blogs

Bruce Krasting

A week ago a great debate was stirred in the financial blog world. As is often the case Zero Hedge was in the middle of the fracas. Mr. Durden penned a piece that suggested that the Fed was manipulating the auctions in such a way as to benefit the primary dealers. It got to be a very sophisticated discussion that brought in some thinking from Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism and John Jansen at Across the Curve. The debate is over is far as I am concerned. The Treasury had another successful auction today of the 30 year. But in order to make it a success the Fed bought $27 billion of 15-30 year mortgage paper. The curve is the curve...This is timed intervention. That is a polite way to say manipulation. Federal Reserve manipulating Treasury auctions; quantitative easing.

Blog; Bruce Krasting; Fed intervention.

zero hedge Thu 2009-09-03 09:59 EDT

Deep Thoughts From Leucadia

With Leucadia coming boldly from behind the shadows, where Ian Cumming and Joe Steinberg have always enjoyed operating, and joining Buffett in a deal over Capmark's loan-servicing and mortgage business, it makes sense to introduce readers with some of the very original thinking of the Leucadia founders (and very close friends of the mellifluously named Dick Handler). We present their most recent annual investor letter, which frequently is cited as among the best hedge fund (even though they don't like to be seen as one) strategy reading material. downloaded pdf.

Deep Thought; Leucadia; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Thu 2009-09-03 09:59 EDT

Deep Thoughts From Leucadia

With Leucadia coming boldly from behind the shadows, where Ian Cumming and Joe Steinberg have always enjoyed operating, and joining Buffett in a deal over Capmark's loan-servicing and mortgage business, it makes sense to introduce readers with some of the very original thinking of the Leucadia founders (and very close friends of the mellifluously named Dick Handler). We present their most recent annual investor letter, which frequently is cited as among the best hedge fund (even though they don't like to be seen as one) strategy reading material. downloaded pdf.

Deep Thought; Leucadia; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Wed 2009-09-02 20:01 EDT

Money On The Sidelines... 1930 Versus 2009

There is a saying, that everything new is just well-forgotten old. The same apparently is especially applicable to propaganda that seeks to part fools with their money. Today's brownie point question is: was the statement below just uttered by Larry Kudlow, or did it appear first more than 79 years ago? There's a large amount of money on sidelines waiting for investment opportunities; this should be felt in market when ``cheerful sentiment is more firmly intrenched.'' Economists point out that banks and insurance companies ``never before had so much money lying idle.'' If you answered "the latter" you were correct. It first appeared on August 28, 1930 to be precise (and who knows how many times prior...

1930 Versus 2009; money; sidelined; Zero Hedge.