Sat 2010-09-25 11:02 EDT

Where is the World Economy Headed?

Michael Hudson

...financial maneuvering and debt leverage play the role that military conquest did in times past. Its aim is still to control land, basic infrastructure and the economic surplus -- and also to gain control of national savings, commercial banking and central bank policy...Indebted ``host economies'' are in a similar position to that of defeated countries. Their economic surplus is transferred abroad financially, while locally, debtors lose sovereignty over their own financial, economic and tax policy. Public infrastructure is sold off to foreign buyers, on credit and therefore paying interest and fees that are expensed as tax-deductible and paid to foreigners. The Washington Consensus applauds this pro-rentier policy. Its neoliberal ideology holds that the most efficient path to wealth is to shift economic planning out of the hands of government into those of bankers and money managers in charge of privatizing and financializing the economy. Almost without anyone noticing, this view is replacing the classical law of nations based on the idea of sovereignty over debt and financial policy, tariff and tax policy...Bankers in the North look upon any economic surplus -- real estate rent, corporate cash flow or even the government's taxing power or ability to sell off public enterprises -- as a source of revenue to pay interest on debts...The original liberals -- from Adam Smith and the Physiocrats through John Stuart Mill and even Winston Churchill -- urged that the tax system be based on the economic rent of land so as to keep down the price of housing (and hence labor's cost of living). The Progressive Era followed this principle by aiming to keep natural monopolies such as transportation, communication and even banks (or at least, free credit creation) in the public domain. But the post-1980 world has encouraged private owners to buy them on credit and extract economic rent, thereby shifting the tax burden onto labor, industry and agriculture -- while concentrating wealth, first on credit and then via the enormous recent public bailouts of this failed financial debt pyramiding and deregulation...At issue is the concept of free markets. Are they to be free from monopoly and special privilege, or free for the occupying financial invaders and speculators?...

World Economy Headed.

The Wall Street Examiner Sun 2010-05-09 09:55 EDT

Taking a Minsky Cruise on the Flow of Funds Datastream (part 1)

...Banks (who are, of course, owned by people, equity liabilities are not included in that data set) have always had a big lien on the country, but that lien has doubled (relative to GDP) since 1980. Households used to be a major source of finance in the country but as their distaste for debt faded along with memories of the depression they started to borrow more than they leant. Then, as restrictions to foreign capital inflows fell (how else to maintain a trade deficit without settling in specie) the Rest of the World became a significant source of funds. In 2001, The RoW overtook US Households as a source of funding and this trend has accelerated. Warren Buffett was wrong, we weren't going to become a sharecropper society, we already were one...

flowing; Funds Datastream; Minsky Cruise; Part 1; take; Wall Street Examiner.

Sun 2010-01-31 11:43 EST

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: The Stock Market Has Never Been This (Intermediate-Term) Overbought - October 19, 2009

In reviewing the status of the market late last week, the condition of the data was something of an anomaly in that regard. On the valuation front, stocks are presently overvalued, but to levels that we've observed at least several times in history. The anomaly relates to market action, where we can no longer find a single historical instance where stocks were more overbought on the combination of short- and intermediate-term measures we respond to most strongly. Indeed, only one instance comes close, which is November 28, 1980...the peak of the furious advance in S&P 500 driven by enthusiasm over "less bad" economic news, though with little proven economic strength. It was the last day of the 1980 bull market. The economy later proved to have been in a short lull within a double-dip recession, taking stocks to their final lows in 1982...One of the notable features of extreme overbought conditions is that investors rarely have much opportunity to get out...

2009; Hussman Funds; intermediate term; October 19; Overbought; stock market; weekly market comments.

Tue 2009-10-27 13:03 EDT

`We still have the same disease' - The Globe and Mail

On anniversary of Lehman collapse, author of The Black Swan can say 'I told you so'...Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Central bankers have no clue. In the first place, the financial crisis was not a black swan. It was perfectly predictable. They ignored the phenomenal buildup in leverage since 1980. They acted like airline pilots who'd never heard of hurricanes. After finishing The Black Swan, I realized there was a cancer. The cancer was a huge buildup of risk-taking based on the lack of understanding of reality. The second problem is the hidden risk with new financial products. And the third is the interdependence among financial institutions.

disease; globe; mail.

Sun 2009-09-20 14:12 EDT

America's Exhausted Paradigm: Macroeconomic Causes of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession | The New America Foundation

Thomas Palley

This report traces the roots of the current financial crisis to a faulty U.S. macroeconomic paradigm. One flaw in this paradigm was the neo-liberal growth model adopted after 1980 that relied on debt and asset price inflation to drive demand. A second flaw was the model of U.S. engagement with the global economy that created a triple economic hemorrhage of spending on imports, manufacturing job losses, and off-shoring of investment. Deregulation and financial excess are important parts of the story, but they are not the ultimate cause of the crisis. Instead, they facilitated the housing bubble and are actually part of the neo-liberal model, their function being to fuel demand growth based on debt and asset price inflation. The old post-World War II growth model based on rising middle-class incomes has been dismantled, while the new neo-liberal growth model has imploded. The United States needs a new economic paradigm and a new growth model, but as yet this challenge has received little attention from policymakers or economists.

America's Exhausted Paradigm; Financial Crisis; Great Recession; Macroeconomic Causes; New America Foundation.

naked capitalism Sun 2009-09-20 09:48 EDT

Guest Post: ``Assessing the Recent Performance of the Fed''

Richard Alford, former economist at the New York Fed

...the current Fed: 1) actively promoted the asset bubbles which precipitated the most costly business downturn since the Great depression; 2) passively sat by ignoring its regulatory and supervisory responsibilities allowing the growth of imbalances that led to the worst business downturn since the Great depression...the economic and financial imbalances that built up between 2000 and 2007 will generate the opportunity costs in terms of lost output and idle and misallocated resources that will exceed the costs inherent in the economic and financial imbalances reflected in the most expensive anti-inflation fight ever fought by the Fed (1980-1983). The US financial system remains on life support. Furthermore, the Fed has played a part in allocating credit and in engineering redistributions of wealth on a scale that is likely to on the same scale as the redistribution of wealth from the household sector to government during the inflation ridden 1970s. The independence of the Fed has been compromised. Many in the Congress want to audit the Fed and limit its ability to make loans in future emergencies. The Fed is seen by many as an agency of the Treasury.

assessment; Fed; Guest Post; naked capitalism; recent perform.

Sun 2008-06-01 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: S&L Crisis vs. Current Crisis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: S&L Crisis vs. Current Crisis; "upcoming bank crisis is going to be far greater than what happened in the 1980's even though the number of failures will be far smaller"

current crisis; L Crisis; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; s.