Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Mon 2009-09-21 14:09 EDT

Is Pent-Up Inflation From Fed Printing Waiting On Deck?

Michael Shedlock

Inquiring minds are wondering about the possibility of "pent-up" inflation from the massive expansion money supply by the Fed...Hardly. A funny thing happened to the inflation theory: Banks aren't lending and proof can be found in excess reserves at member banks. Because of rising credit card defaults, commercial real estate defaults, foreclosures, walk-aways, and other bad debts, banks need those reserves to cover future losses...banks are insolvent, unable or unwilling to lend. Moreover, tapped out consumers are unable or unwilling to borrow.

deck; Fed Printing Waiting; Inflation; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; pent.

naked capitalism Sun 2009-09-20 10:17 EDT

Guest Post: Ambrose Evans-Pritchard & the City's hard EU choices

Swedish Lex

The City's political clout in Brussels is waning as the UK's financial industry model has gone from being the envy of the European peers to being a liability. Meanwhile, the EU will in the future probably be proposing new banking and financial services legislation that may be superficially marketed by decision-makers as striving to provide a clear cut with the existing Anglo-Saxon casino model. This guest post will discuss some of the fundamental choices that the City is facing, the most significant being whether or not to be advocating a UK withdrawal from the EU altogether.

Ambrose Evans Pritchard; City's hard EU choices; Guest Post; naked capitalism.

Jesse's Café Américain Sun 2009-09-13 10:37 EDT

China Admonishes US Monetization, Sees a Hard Fall for the Dollar Over Time

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard via Jesse

The US Federal Reserve's policy of printing money to buy Treasury debt threatens to set off a serious decline of the dollar and compel China to redesign its foreign reserve policy, according to Cheng Siwei, a top member of the Communist hierarchy...The blowback on the US dollar will be significant. Dollar losing reserve currency status.

China admonished; Dollar; Hard Fall; Jesse's Café Américain; monetize; see; Time.

Bruce Krasting Fri 2009-09-04 19:21 EDT

Fannie's Trading Derivatives Hard, and Losing

Bruce Krasting

It has been my contention that the Agencies were a factor in the bond market volatility in the past three months. Fannies 10Q has the following information regarding their derivative activity in the first six months of the year. As of June 30 FNM had a balance sheet of $900 billion. Against that position they bought and sold over the counter derivative contracts totaling $1.2 Trillion. On average $100 billion per day. There can be little doubt but that FNM has been adding to the volatility in the credit market. As luck would have it, the end result of all of this was a loss of $2.2billion.

Bruce Krasting; Fannie's Trading Derivatives Hard; Lose.

Steve Keen's Debtwatch Sun 2009-08-30 14:33 EDT

It's Hard Being a Bear (Part Two)

Cassander

One of the reasons I'm still a bear on the economy is because the economists in the optimists camp are relying upon very bad economic theory. If that theory is telling them good times are ahead, that's one of the best predictors of bad times you could have. Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM) preached that stock market price shares accurately, that the amount of debt finance a company has doesn't affect its value, and many other notions that have gone up in smoke during the GFC. CAPM developer William Sharpe ``assumed a miracle'': all investors agree about the future and their expectations about the future are correct. Macroeconomic theory has been dominated by IS-LM model erroneously attributed to Keynes but actually due to convervative neoclassical John Hicks, which ``emasculated what was original in Keynes's General Theory, and this bowdlerised version of Keynes was then demolished by Friedman in the 1970s to usher in the Monetarist phase''

Bear; hard; part; Steve Keen's Debtwatch.

ClubOrlov Wed 2009-08-26 10:59 EDT

The new new money

kollapsnik

It's official: The government in Beijing has announced that the Yuan can now be used in international trade. Their mouthpiece for this occasion was the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, a private entity, which made the announcement on their behalf. By the end of this year, it is expected that fully 50% of all transactions with Hong Kong will be denominated in the Yuan. In turn, Hong Kong re-exports 90% of its Chinese imports. Importer #1 is the European Union; importer #2 is the United States. Some of these countries may soon find themselves hard-pressed to earn enough Yuan to continue importing Chinese-made products. This is only the next small step in Beijing's "policy of small steps." Already the Chinese government has ramped down its purchases of US... US dollar losing reserve status; yuan-denominated accounts available in Hong Kong.

ClubOrlov; new new money.

The IRA Analyst Tue 2009-06-16 00:00 EDT

The Institutional Risk Analyst: Zombie Update; Pento on Bernanke's Permanently Expanded Balance Sheet

``This zombie dance party ain't over. No sir.'' Michael Pento: ``Bernanke will be hard-pressed to substantially raise rates to combat inflation once consumer and wholesale prices begin to significantly increase.''

Bernanke's Permanently Expanded Balance Sheet; Institutional Risk Analyst; IRA Analyst; Pento; Zombie Update.

Tue 2009-04-21 00:00 EDT

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Fed and Treasury - Putting off Hard Choices with Easy Money (and Probable Chaos) - March 23, 2009

2009; easy money; Fed; Hard Choice; Hussman Funds; March 23; Probable Chaos; putting; Treasury; weekly market comments.

Mon 2009-03-23 00:00 EDT

Clusterfuck Nation by Jim Kunstler : Full Commanding Denial

``after the AIG bonus affair, it's hard to imagine that we are not one more corporate misdeed away from a rocket-propelled-grenade, or something like that, being fired into a glass office tower somewhere -- and then the "first-broken-window" rule of social disintegration comes into play.''

Clusterfuck Nation; Full Commanding Denial; Jim Kunstler.

Mon 2009-01-19 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: Fitch Foresees "Hard Landing" for China

China; Fitch Foresees; hard landing; naked capitalism.

Tue 2008-09-23 00:00 EDT

Winter (Economic & Market) Watch >> Massive Bailout? Hardly, a Massive Tar Pit Instead

Winter (Economic & Market) Watch >> Massive Bailout? Hardly, a Massive Tar Pit Instead; paulson bailout plan; ``work closely with the FOH (friends of Hank) on the Tar Pit scarfs, and also pressure and push the carrion off the cliff into the Tar Pit.''

economic; hard; Market; massive bailout; Massive Tar Pit Instead; watch; winter.

Tue 2008-07-08 00:00 EDT

Funds: When the dollar is not so almighty - International Herald Tribune

by J. Alex Tarquinio; Franklin Templeton Hard Currency fund; 2006-05-31

ALMIGHTY; Dollar; funds; International Herald Tribune.

Sun 2007-11-25 00:00 EST

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Liquidity Pump Runs Dry

Fed moves irrelevant as banking system collapses; "Slashing rates to 1% was what created this mess. Cutting them to 1% again can hardly be the solution."

Liquidity Pump Runs Dry; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Sun 2007-11-25 00:00 EST

RGE - With the Recession Becoming Inevitable the Consensus Shifts Towards the Hard Landing View. And the Rising Risk of a Systemic Financial Meltdown

by Nouriel Roubini

Consensus Shifts; Hard Landing View; Recession Becoming Inevitable; RGE; rising risks; System financial meltdown.

Mon 2007-09-10 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Nouriel Roubini: "The Coming U.S. Hard Landing"

Coming U.S. Hard Landing; naked capitalism; Nouriel Roubini.

Fri 2007-09-07 00:00 EDT

Roubini Global Economics (RGE) Monitor

The Coming U.S. Hard Landing, by Nouriel Roubini; "the first real crisis of the new world of financial globalization and securitization"

monitor; RGE; Roubini Global Economics.