Mon 2009-12-21 18:29 EST

China's Economy: Decoupling from what? - Drorism*

One of the most popular memes repeated by mainstream media since the collapse of Lehman Brothers last year is the idea that China will manage to avoid the consequences economic downturn by shifting from an export-based economy to one based on local consumption...the "decoupling" theory proved to be false: The downturn in the developed world had a significant impact on China's economic well-being, causing a dramatic rise in unemployment and a sharp slowdown in economic growth...A new study published by Professor Hung Ho-fung...compares China's development path to that of other Asian economies, including Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong. It provides a concise summary of political and economic events in East-Asia since World War II as well as some colorful predictions and recommendations...

China s Economy; decoupled; Drorism.

Fri 2009-11-20 09:59 EST

Interfluidity :: Sympathy for the Treasury

On Monday, I was among a group of eight bloggers who attended a discussion with "senior Treasury officials" in Washington...Although the format of our meeting did not lend itself to forging deep relationships, I was flattered and grateful for the meeting and left with more sympathy for the people I spoke to than I came in with. In other words, I have been corrupted, a little...The most interesting aspect of the meeting was anthropological, getting a look at how senior Treasury officials behaved, how they interacted with us and what kind of a thing this was to them. It was a two hour meeting, but different groups of officials came at us in shifts, and stayed with us for 20 to 40 minutes. The tone of the meeting was open, earnest, and informal. But somehow, it never felt like we connected, like there was a lot of actual communication occurring.

Interfluidity; sympathy; Treasury.

Jesse's Café Américain Mon 2009-10-26 09:37 EDT

Of Bubbles and Busts: Which Way for China?

Jesse

While the crowd has been chortling over the anticipated decline and fall of the American Empire, they may also be overlooking the dangerously unstable bubble in China, and the implications for that phenomenon when the global economy shifts again...China is more like the US in 1929 than the US itself resembles that paradigm today. This would imply that China is more likely to experience the kind of devastating crash and long economic Depression if world trade collapses.

bubble; busting; China; Jesse's Café Américain; way.

naked capitalism Fri 2009-10-23 09:50 EDT

Guest Post: The Ongoing Cover Up of the Truth Behind the Financial Crisis May Lead to Another Crash

George Washington of Washington's Blog

William K. Black -- professor of economics and law, and the senior regulator during the S & L crisis -- says that that the government's entire strategy now -- as during the S&L crisis -- is to cover up how bad things are (''the entire strategy is to keep people from getting the facts'')...PhD economist Dean Baker made a similar point, lambasting the Federal Reserve for blowing the bubble, and pointing out that those who caused the disaster are trying to shift the focus as fast as they can...Economist Thomas Palley says that Wall Street also has a vested interest in covering up how bad things are...The media has largely parroted what the White House and Wall Street were saying...One of the foremost experts on structured finance and derivatives -- Janet Tavakoli -- says that rampant fraud and Ponzi schemes caused the financial crisis. University of Texas economics professor James K. Galbraith agrees...Congress woman Marcy Kaptur says that there was rampant fraud leading up to the crash...Black and economist Simon Johnson also state that the banks committed fraud by making loans to people that they knew would default, to make huge profits during the boom, knowing that the taxpayers would bail them out when things went bust.

Crash; Financial Crisis; Guest Post; lead; naked capitalism; Ongoing Cover; truth.

The Big Picture Sun 2009-10-11 16:08 EDT

Kaptur & Johnson on Bill Moyers

Former International Monetary Fund chief economist Simon Johnson and US Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) report on the state of the economy... MARCY KAPTUR: Think about what these banks have done. They have taken very imprudent behavior, irresponsible. They have really gambled, all right? And in many cases, been involved in fraudulent activity. And then when they lost, they shifted their losses to the taxpayer. So, if you look at an instrumentality like the F.H.A., the Federal Housing Administration. They used to insure one of every 50 mortgages in the country. Now it's one out of four. MARCY KAPTUR: Because what they're doing is they're taking their mistakes and they're dumping them on the taxpayer. So, you and I, and the long term debt of our country and our children and grandchildren. It's all at risk because of their behavior. We aren't reigning them in. The laws of Congress passed last year in terms of housing, were hollow. ... SIMON JOHNSON: And Rahm Emanuel, the President's Chief of Staff has a saying. He's widely known for saying, `Never let a good crisis go to waste'. Well, the crisis is over, Bill. The crisis in the financial sector, not for people who own homes, but the crisis for the big banks is substantially over. And it was completely wasted. The Administration refused to break the power of the big banks, when they had the opportunity, earlier this year. And the regulatory reforms they are now pursuing will turn out to be, in my opinion, and I do follow this day to day, you know. These reforms will turn out to be essentially meaningless.

Big Picture; Bill Moyers; Johnson; Kaptur.

Tue 2009-09-29 11:33 EDT

How Bad Will It Get?

Mike Whitney, CounterPunch

In the two years since the crisis began, neither the Fed nor policymakers at the Treasury have taken steps to remove toxic assets from banks balance sheets. The main arteries for credit still remain clogged despite the fact that the Bernanke has added nearly $900 billion in excess reserves to the banking system. Consumers continue to reduce their borrowing despite historically low interest rates and the banks are still hoarding capital to pay off losses from non performing loans and bad assets. Changes in the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) rules for mark-to-market accounting of assets have made it easier for underwater banks to hide their red ink, but, eventually, the losses have to be reported. The wave of banks failures is just now beginning to accelerate. It should persist into 2011. The system is gravely under-capitalized and at risk...The economy cannot recover without a strong consumer. But consumers and households have suffered massive losses and are deeply in debt. Credit lines have been reduced and, for many, the only source of revenue is the weekly paycheck...The current recession has exposed the fault-lines dividing the classes in the US. Neither party represents working people. Both the Democrats and the Republicans are supportive of "social engineering for the rich"; regressive taxation and economic policies which shift a greater portion of the wealth to the richest Americans. The question of inequality, which has grown to levels not seen since the Gilded Age, will dominate the national conversation as the recession deepens and more people slip from the ranks of the middle class...After Obama's stimulus runs out, consumer spending will again sputter and the economy will slide back into recession.

bad.

Thu 2009-09-17 10:31 EDT

China, Bernanke, and the price of gold - Telegraph Blogs

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

China has issued what amounts to the ``Beijing Put'' on gold. Former Vice-Chairman of the Communist Party's Standing Committee Cheng Siwei: China has fundamentally lost confidence in the US dollar and is going to shift to a partial gold standard through reserve accumulation. [dollar losing reserve status]

Bernanke; China; gold; Price; Telegraph Blogs.

Thu 2009-07-30 00:00 EDT

Hussman Funds - The Destructive Implications of the Bailout - Understanding Equilibrium - May 18, 2009

-- ``The Treasury has issued an enormous volume of debt into the frightened hands of investors seeking default-free securities. This has allowed the Treasury to finance a massive and largely needless transfer of wealth to bank bondholders so easily over the short-term that the longer-term cost has been almost completely obscured...transferring wealth from those who did not finance reckless loans to those who did... the Treasury and Federal Reserve have crowded out more than a trillion dollars of gross investment that would have otherwise have been made by responsible people in the coming years, shifted assets to the control of those who have proven themselves to be irresponsible destroyers of capital, and have planted the seeds of inflation that will cut short any emerging recovery.''

18; 2009; Bailout; Destructive Implications; Hussman Funds; Understanding Equilibrium.

Tue 2009-04-21 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Boomers' Future Went Down The Drain

``A structural shift in consumption to savings or at least reduced consumption, is in store for boomers''

Boomers; drain; futures went; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Tue 2009-02-24 00:00 EST

Financial Coup d'Etat at The Catherine Austin Fitts Blog

Financial Coup d'Etat at The Catherine Austin Fitts Blog; Washington-Wall Street partnership engineered fraudulent housing and debt bubble, illegally shifted vast amounts of capital out of the U.S., and used privitization as a form of piracy

Catherine Austin Fitts Blog; financial coup d'etat.

Fri 2009-01-16 00:00 EST

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: The Long-Term Gets Shorter - January 12, 2009

durations shifts in stocks as prices and earnings fall

2009; Hussman Funds; January 12; long-term; shorter; weekly market comments.

Tue 2008-11-25 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: On the Fed's Shift to Quantitative Easing

Fed's Shift; naked capitalism; Quantitative Easing.

Tue 2008-10-07 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: China: Less, Not More, Capitalistic?

``post-Tiananmen Square, new Chinese leadership shifted its approach to economic development to one that had more state direction than before''; Yasheng Huang, Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics: Entrepreneurship and the State

capitalist; China; naked capitalism.

Fri 2008-06-20 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: "Exploding Commodity Prices Signal Future Inflation"

"commodity prices are the result of portfolio shift against liquid assets by sovereign investors, sovereign wealth funds, partly triggered by lax monetary policy,...olicymakers should seriously start worrying about inflation and stop chasing imaginary destabilising speculators."

Exploding Commodity Prices Signal Future Inflation; naked capitalism.

Fri 2007-12-21 00:00 EST

War And Peace: The Truth About Economic Tsunamis: Shifts In Global Power

by Elaine Meinel Supkis; British imperial decline; Smoot-Hartley beneficial to US; US imitating British decline after WW II

economic tsunami; Global Power; peace; shifted; truth; war.

Sun 2007-11-25 00:00 EST

RGE - With the Recession Becoming Inevitable the Consensus Shifts Towards the Hard Landing View. And the Rising Risk of a Systemic Financial Meltdown

by Nouriel Roubini

Consensus Shifts; Hard Landing View; Recession Becoming Inevitable; RGE; rising risks; System financial meltdown.