naked capitalism Fri 2010-07-23 17:08 EDT

Deficits Do Matter, But Not the Way You Think

L. Randall Wray

In recent months, a form of mass hysteria has swept the country as fear of ``unsustainable'' budget deficits replaced the earlier concern about the financial crisis, job loss, and collapsing home prices. What is most troubling is that this shift in focus comes even as the government's stimulus package winds down and as its temporary hires for the census are let go. Worse, the economy is still -- likely -- years away from a full recovery. To be sure, at least some of the hysteria has been manufactured by Pete Peterson's well-funded public relations campaign, fronted by President Obama's National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform -- a group that supposedly draws members from across the political spectrum, yet are all committed to the belief that the current fiscal stance puts the nation on a path to ruinous indebtedness...[however] the notion of ``fiscal sustainability'' or ``solvency'' is not applicable to a sovereign government -- which cannot be forced into involuntary default on debts denominated in its own currency...If we can get beyond the fears of national insolvency then there are many issues that can be fruitfully discussed. While inflation will not be a problem for many years, price pressures could return some day. Impacts of exchange rate instability are important, at least for some nations. Unemployment is a chronic problem, even at business cycle peaks. Aging does raise serious questions about allocation of resources, especially medical care. Poverty and homelessness exist in the midst of relative abundance. Simply recognizing that our sovereign government cannot go bankrupt does not solve those problems, but it does make them easier to resolve...

Deficit; matter; naked capitalism; Think; way.

Social Democracy for the 21st Century: A Post Keynesian Perspective Thu 2010-07-22 16:08 EDT

Money is not a Neutral Veil

Lord Keynes

Neoclassical economics has the erroneous belief that money is neutral...Neoclassical analysis sees economic life in terms of a moneyless, ideal barter system. In this system, money exists but has been introduced merely to make trade easier...[however] John Maynard Keynes' General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936) argued that modern capitalist economies are pre-dominantly monetary systems. The starting point for any sensible economic theory must recognise that monetary factors are crucial to modern economic activity...

21st century; money; Neutral Veil; Post Keynesian Perspective; social democracy.

Mon 2010-03-22 14:10 EDT

American small businesses needn't go extinct

Barry C. Lynn

...One recent study, based on data compiled by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, placed the United States second to last out of 22 rich nations in the percentage of workers who run their own businesses. Only Luxembourg ranked lower. The American small business is increasingly becoming an American myth: Self-employment in nonfarm businesses has fallen by nearly half over the past 50 years...specific political moves and decisions in Washington over the past several decades have made it much easier for the people who control large-scale corporations to displace small proprietors. One of the most important was a radical change in 1981 in the enforcement of U.S. antitrust laws...we have witnessed the greatest consolidation of economic power since the days of J.D. Rockefeller and J.P. Morgan.

American small businesses needn't go extinct.

zero hedge Tue 2009-11-03 19:57 EST

Guest Post: Systemic Risk is All About Innovation and Incentives: Ed Kane

Edward J. Kane vi Chris Whalen

...we present the views of our friend and mentor Ed Kane of Boston College, who argues that the problem with the financial regulatory framework is not the law, regulation nor even the regulators, but rather the confluence of poorly aligned incentives and financial innovation... The financial crisis of 2007-2009 is the product of a regulation-induced short-cutting and near elimination of private counterparty incentives to perform adequate due diligence along the chain of transactions traversed in securitizing and re-securitizing risky loans (Kane, 2009a). The GLBA [Gramm-Leach-Bliley Financial Modernization Act of 1999] did make it easier for institutions to make themselves more difficult to fail and unwind. But it did not cause due-diligence incentives to break down in lending and securitization, nor did it cause borrowers and lenders to overleverage themselves. Still, the three phenomena share a common cause. Excessive risk-taking, regulation-induced innovation, and the lobbying pressure that led to the GLBA trace to subsidies to risk-taking that are protected by the political and economic challenges of monitoring and policing the safety-net consequences of regulation-induced innovation. These challenges and the limited liability that their stockholders and counterparties enjoy make it easy for clever managers of large institutions to extract implicit subsidies to leveraged risk-taking from national safety nets (Kane, 2009b)...To reduce the threat of future crises, the pressing task is not to rework bureaucratic patterns of financial regulation, but to repair defects in the incentive structure under which private and government supervisors manage a nation's financial safety net.

Ed Kane; Guest Post; incentives; innovation; systemic risk; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Mon 2009-10-12 10:22 EDT

FHA: Next Bailout?

...The FHA has ALWAYS been in the low down payment business! It has long offered loans requiring only 3% down, long before ``subprime'' was part of the lexicon. Historically, FHA loans did not show default rates materially worse than prime loans. That experience has been replicated by not for profit lenders in low income neighborhoods...the big difference from how the FHA once did business versus its subprime competitors was.....the FHA screened loans on an individual basis. The process was time consuming and somewhat intrusive. Private lenders were faster, easier, and (lo and behold) less stringent.

Bailout; FHA; naked capitalism.

Tue 2009-09-29 11:33 EDT

How Bad Will It Get?

Mike Whitney, CounterPunch

In the two years since the crisis began, neither the Fed nor policymakers at the Treasury have taken steps to remove toxic assets from banks balance sheets. The main arteries for credit still remain clogged despite the fact that the Bernanke has added nearly $900 billion in excess reserves to the banking system. Consumers continue to reduce their borrowing despite historically low interest rates and the banks are still hoarding capital to pay off losses from non performing loans and bad assets. Changes in the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) rules for mark-to-market accounting of assets have made it easier for underwater banks to hide their red ink, but, eventually, the losses have to be reported. The wave of banks failures is just now beginning to accelerate. It should persist into 2011. The system is gravely under-capitalized and at risk...The economy cannot recover without a strong consumer. But consumers and households have suffered massive losses and are deeply in debt. Credit lines have been reduced and, for many, the only source of revenue is the weekly paycheck...The current recession has exposed the fault-lines dividing the classes in the US. Neither party represents working people. Both the Democrats and the Republicans are supportive of "social engineering for the rich"; regressive taxation and economic policies which shift a greater portion of the wealth to the richest Americans. The question of inequality, which has grown to levels not seen since the Gilded Age, will dominate the national conversation as the recession deepens and more people slip from the ranks of the middle class...After Obama's stimulus runs out, consumer spending will again sputter and the economy will slide back into recession.

bad.

naked capitalism Sun 2009-09-13 15:35 EDT

Is economic boom around the corner?

Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns

...growth underpinned by high debt accumulation and low savings can continue for a very, very long time. In the United States, by virtue of America's possession of the world's reserve currency, an increase in aggregate debt levels has been successfully financed for well over twenty-five years...it is wholly conceivable that we could experience a multi-year economic expansion on the back of renewed monetary and fiscal expansion...Marc Faber: ``Don't underestimate the power of printing money''...but NDK continues to ``disrespect the power of printing money. There are few transmission mechanisms to get that printed money into the real economy.'' pebird comments (paraphrasing Faber?): The US (and Europe) per capita wealth must be driven down to a global benchmark - that is what globalization means. Which is easier - bringing 800 million Chinese plus 500 million Indian workers up to Western standards or 400 million Western workers down to global standards?

corner; economic boom; naked capitalism.