naked capitalism Mon 2009-12-28 17:16 EST

Guest Post: Princeton Economist and Computer Scientists Show that Derivatives Are Inherently Vulnerable to Fraud

Washington's Blog

...the main default risk model for credit default swaps -- the ``Gaussian copula function'' -- was inherently flawed. Now, Princeton University economists and computer scientists have demonstrated that financial derivatives are also inherently vulnerable to fraudulent pricing. PhysOrg summarizes Princeton's findings: ...sellers of these investments could purposefully include pieces of bad risk that no buyer could detect even with the most powerful computers... the problem arises from asymmetric information between buyers and sellers, and goes against conventional wisdom in economic theory, which holds that derivatives reduce the negative effects of such unequal information.

Computer Scientists Show; derivative; fraud; Guest Post; inherently vulnerable; naked capitalism; Princeton economists.

zero hedge Thu 2009-12-17 10:37 EST

Is Selling US CDS A Risk-Free Way To Short The Dollar?

There has been much conjecture on whether using CDS is an effective way to hedge against US default risk. Many theoreticians, especially those of the post-March lows variety, have sprung up and are speculating that buying Credit Default Swaps on the US is ultimately a futile and pointless endeavor. The main argument: a US default would likely mean that interconnected dealers won't recognize contracts on a US default event, as they themselves will be out of business. Even if they continued to exist, like cockroaches in a postapocalyptic world, the collateral which backs derivatives is mostly US Treasurys: the same obligations that would end up being massively impaired...the US CDS seller syndicate could easily be one of the key sources of dollar short funding: with sellers pocketing euros and immediately going to market and selling dollars...a dollar-short unwind would probably have repercussions in the US CDS market. Not only would the dollar spike, but paradoxically US credit risk would probably widen dramatically...any unwind at the heart of the prevalent risk trade now: the massive dollar carry, would impact virtually every investment product, quite possibly in self-referential feedback loops. If correct, it merely shows how much more the Fed has at stake in keeping the dollar depressed than merely getting mom and pop to buy Amazon at $130/share. Losing control of the carry trade will be the systemic equivalent of allowing Lehman's book to be marked-to-market: a potentially complete collapse in systemic confidence, which would have such far ranging implications as the $300 trillion interest rate derivative market. And when sudden volatility reaches this product universe which is 6 times bigger than world GDP, the events from last year will seem like a dress rehearsal.

CDS; Dollar; Risk-Free Way; sell; short; Zero Hedge.

Mon 2008-11-03 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: CDS Pricing in Increasing Treasury Default Risk

Paul Amery

CDS price; Increasing Treasury Default Risk; naked capitalism.

Tue 2008-09-02 00:00 EDT

EconLog, Freddie Mac: My Chapter, Arnold Kling: Library of Economics and Liberty

``I was "present at the creation" of Freddie Mac's risk management culturethe Foster...Van Order approach to pricing mortgage default risk. That was the approach that [Freddie Mac CEO Richard Syron] rejected''

Arnold Kling; Chapter; econlog; economic; Freddie Mac; liberties; libraries.