Dr. Housing Bubble Blog Thu 2010-09-16 16:36 EDT

Collapse in Southern California home sales a sign that prices will fall in 2011? The 2005 and 2006 collapse in sales led to prices tanking in 2007. Home prices still inflated after years of bank and government intervention.

drhousingbubble

Southern California home sales have collapsed for July and August. These are typically strong sales months. The summer is usually a solid time for sales but the introduction of government intervention, banks stalling, and toxic mortgages lingering on bank balance sheets have thrown a wrench into the typical home sales patterns. This August was the weakest month on record since August 2007, right when the California housing market was first entering the major price correction phase of the bursting bubble...

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Dr. Housing Bubble Blog Fri 2010-07-30 15:22 EDT

Banks cherry picking individual foreclosures that show up on the MLS in Culver City and Pasadena with proof: Southern California lenders pushing out properties in Culver City with an average price tag of $300,000. Median sale price for city is $600,000. Shadow inventory average price is $443,000 with loans at an average of $552,000. 141,000 homes in Southern California are distressed yet MLS only reflects 83,000 total properties.

...Prices even today are disconnected from market fundamentals. Inventory is still growing and the shadow inventory figures remain elevated...The bulk of properties are sitting hidden in bank balance sheets and are part of the shadow inventory...For Pasadena, for every one listed foreclosure or short sale, you can be assured that there are 5 other properties sitting in the depths of a bank balance sheet. Keep in mind this is for a highly desirable area...the numbers look nearly the same in Culver City. For every one distressed property on the MLS, you have 5 others hidden in some bank balance sheet. Now when I look at this data what I see is a façade in Southern California real estate...Banks are basically trying to avoid facing the music and realizing the reality that these properties are overpriced (people can't even keep up with their payments). Does any of this data look like a healthy market?

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Dr. Housing Bubble Blog Sun 2010-05-16 15:17 EDT

Housing never really improved -- 10 charts showing the United States housing market is entering the second wave of problems. 1 out of 4 people with no mortgage payment in the last year are still not in the foreclosure process.

To put it bluntly, the U.S. housing market today is in deep water. Nothing exemplifies the transfer of risk to the public from the private investment banks more than the deep losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fannie Mae announced a stunning first quarter loss of $13.1 billion while Freddie Mac lost $8 billion. At the same time, toxic mortgage superstar JP Morgan Chase announced a $3.3 billion profit for Q1. This reversal of fortunes has been orchestrated perfectly by Wall Street. Since the toxic assets were never marked to market, the big losses have been funneled to the big GSEs (and as we will show in this article, now makes up 96.5 percent of the entire mortgage market). In other words, banks are making profits gambling on Wall Street while pushing out mortgages that are completely backed by the government...

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Dr. Housing Bubble Blog Fri 2009-11-20 08:25 EST

Fannie Mae and Wells Fargo Announce Creative Mortgage Solutions: A New Thing Called Renting. Option ARM Scenarios, Lease for Deed, and Delaying the Financial Future.

Last week, foreclosure Hall of Fame member and government stepchild Fannie Mae announced a stunning $18.9 billion loss. Remember last year when we were told that bailing out the enormous Government Sponsored Entities that we would be turning a profit? Well that didn't exactly pan out and both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been a vortex for taxpayer money. With that said, Fannie Mae announced a ``lease for deed'' program that will essentially convert struggling homeowners to that feared word, renters. In the same week after Attorney General Jerry Brown sent his letter to the top option ARM wheelers and dealers in California, Wells Fargo came out with its ingenious solution. Wells Fargo has decided, at least as it stands, to convert their Pick-A-Pay option ARMs into glorious interest only loans for periods of six to ten years.

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Dr. Housing Bubble Blog Tue 2009-10-13 20:03 EDT

No Country for Old Jobs: 10 Charts Showing the Fragile Recovery. Home Sales, Buying versus Renting, Unemployment, and Real Economy Data.

...Until jobs start showing up, any talk of a rebounding housing market is moot especially with this entire artificial stimulus still bouncing around the economy. And collapsing tax revenues are not a good sign. I don't buy the jobless recovery argument and the government tends to agree. If all is well, why is the U.S. government and Fed buying $1.25 trillion in agency debt to lower mortgage rates, putting in place an $8,000 tax credit, boosting car sales with gimmicks, encouraging risky low money down loans with FHA insured products, and extending unemployment insurance to a record 92 weeks in states like California? Do these things sounds like policies of a booming economy?

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Thu 2009-10-01 10:14 EDT

Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems (MERS): A System Designed to Create the Mortgage Back Security Bubble. >> Dr. Housing Bubble Blog

Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems (MERS)...claims to be a privately-held company and their function is keeping track of a confidential electronic registry of mortgages and the modifications to servicing rights and ownership of the loans. However, if you dig deeper into MERS and their shareholders you will find the same crony bankers...shareholders include AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, WaMu, CitiMortgage, Countrywide, GMAC, Guaranty Bank, and Merrill Lynch...MERS allowed for the mortgage backed security business to explode since it allowed mortgages to be shipped off to Wall Street to be minced into tiny tranches and sold off by the big investment banks...MERS is a front for the mortgage and banking industry. It is claimed as a system of convenience but in reality, it is nothing more than the grease to lube up the housing bubble...what is significant about the Kansas Supreme Court finding has to do with the actual legal ownership of the note and deed especially when it comes to foreclosure...MERS is a straw man...provides ``an opaque veil that clouds not only the actual real ownership of the promissory note, but title to the property.''

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