economic professors Kenneth Rogoff (1); Ken Rogoff (2); Ken Rogoff's famous attack (1); Kenneth Rogoff (11); Kenneth Rogoff show historical financial crises (1); Kenneth Rogoff's Sovereign Debt Warnings (1); Rogoff Foresees (1); Rogoff s (2); tell Rogoff (1).
Sat 2010-07-24 16:14 EDT
Not since Ken Rogoff's famous attack on Joe Stiglitz has the dismal science of economics provoked such pompous, self-important, personalised squabbling. Professors Paul Krugman and Niall Ferguson, of course, have form; they've been at it on and off for nearly a year now over the efficacy of deficit spending in fighting the downturn, and today they return to the fray...
New Economic Perspectives Mon 2010-07-19 13:51 EDT
...with nearly 10% of the US labor force unemployed and another 7% underemployed, the public debate is now focused on the false issue of deficits and debt. A case in point is a recent book by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, ``This Time is Different'' that has become a bestseller...The media as well as academia have fawned all over this book...The crux of the book is that each time people think that ``this time is different'', that crises cannot occur anymore or that they happen to other people in other places. True. This is exactly what Hyman Minsky was arguing more than 40 years ago. Reinhart and Rogoff don't really explain why this perception leads to crises...The book is mostly on crises driven by government debt...[however] Aggregating data over different monetary regimes and different countries cannot yield any meaningful conclusions about sovereign debt and crises. It is only useful if the goal is to merely validate one's preconceived myth about government debt being similar to private debt...As far as I can tell Rogoff and Reinhart haven't identified a single case of government default on domestic-currency denominated debt with a floating exchange rate system...Professional economists are a major impediment on the way to using our economic system for the benefit of us all. And Reinhart and Rogoff are no exception.
Carmen Reinhart; Deficit; government debt; Kenneth Rogoff; myth; New Economic Perspectives; told.
Credit Writedowns Sat 2010-05-22 20:55 EDT
...The cries of the deficit hawks grow louder: Repent all ye fiscal profligates, before the ``day of reckoning'' comes. Let's dial down the Biblical hysteria a wee bit while there's still time for rational debate. The market's recent response to the intensifying pressures in the euro zone suggests that investors are beginning to differentiate between countries that are sovereign issuers of currency, such as the US or Japan, and non-sovereign issuers, such as Greece or any other nations in the euro zone...That the US has the reserve currency is an irrelevant consideration here. The key distinction remains user vs. creator. The euro zone nations are part of the former; Canada, Australia, the UK, Japan and the US are representatives of the latter...Using ``PIIGS'' countries as analogues to the US or the UK, as Rogoff, Ferguson and countless other commentators do, is wrong. Their faulty analysis comes as a result of the deficit critics' failure to distinguish between the monetary arrangements of sovereign and non-sovereign nations. Any sovereign government (none within the EMU enjoy that status any longer) can deal with a collapse in revenue and an increase in outlays from a financial perspective without invoking the sort of deadlocks that are now crippling the EMU zone...Trying to engineer a reduction in the deficit via austerity programs (or freezes or whatever else one might like to call them) at a time when private spending is still insufficient to maintain adequate real GDP growth is a recipe for disaster. It will increase the deficit...
The Money Game Fri 2010-03-19 12:38 EDT
We've persistently taken the view that there is no economic doctrine, no magic number, which would imply a firm external constraint as far as public spending goes, when dealing with a sovereign government issuing debt its own floating rate, non-convertible currency. At some point, we may indeed have a resource constraint, or an inflation constraint, but not a national solvency issue. Yet the hysteria surrounding fiscal policy has moved from the realm of rational debate and metamorphosed into a matter of national theology...A sovereign government is never hostage to the dictates of financial capital because it no longer faces the external constraint that was always present under a gold standard regime. A nation that adopts its own floating rate currency can always afford to put unemployed domestic resources to work. Its government may issue liabilities denominated in its own currency (for interest rate maintenance reasons or to offer its savers an interest-bearing alternative to cash), and will service any debt it issues in its own currency...
different time periods; Kenneth Rogoff's Sovereign Debt Warnings; lively; Money game; wrong.
naked capitalism Sun 2010-02-28 13:23 EST
Kenneth Rogoff, former IMF chief economist warned that a series of sovereign debt defaults is likely to be in the offing...Rogoff is far from alone in seeing sovereign defaults as likely, but so far, the chorus of concern comes mainly from analysts and investors rather than well-known economists (Willem Buiter was notable exception in that regard). One correspondent said that one of his sources, with impeccable contacts, anticipates 12 sovereign debt defaults in the EU...
naked capitalism; Rogoff Foresees; sovereign debt Default; wave.
Yahoo! Finance: Tech Ticker Tue 2009-10-27 11:18 EDT
In "This Time Is Different," economic professors Kenneth Rogoff (Harvard) and Carmen Reinhart (Maryland) examine eight centuries of financial crises, demonstrating how the credit crunch of 2008 wasn't so unique, after all. That's the good news...Reinhart gives policymakers "low marks" for failing to deal head on with toxic assets. There's "a lot of denial" in the approach to the banks, she says, seeing comparisons to Japan's post-bubble policies of delaying write-downs, which created zombie banks. "I'm not seeing a great deal of learning,"
bank; Carmen Reinhart Says; denial; finance; policymaking; Tech Ticker; Yahoo.
Tue 2009-02-24 00:00 EST
Tue 2009-02-24 00:00 EST
Jesse's Café Américain: When Will the Wall Street Money Center Banks Be Nationalized? "Most of the big banks need to be put into some form of bankruptcy and recapitalized, and I think everybody understands that." Ken Rogoff
Jesse's Café Américain; nation; Wall Street money center banks.
Fri 2009-01-16 00:00 EST
Carmine Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff; ``authorities found it difficult to mop up the liquidity they had created. Rapid growth in money supply stoked serious inflation''
cautionary tale; Central Bank Liquidity Injections Made Crises Worse; Latin America; naked capitalism.
Mon 2008-11-03 00:00 EST
The Credit Crisis Endgame, by Paul Amery (PrudentBear); ``the cost of insuring against a US government default has risen by 25 times in little over a year''; ``Signs of strain in the US Treasury market are already there...poor bid-to-cover ratios, and long tails''; Reinhart, Rogoff "Forgotten History of Domestic Debt"
Tue 2008-09-09 00:00 EDT
Kenneth Rogoff: When will the global economic crisis end? | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk
Tue 2008-07-08 00:00 EDT
Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff; long-run historical financial crises; major capital inflows are highly correlated with near-term debt crises; Yves: "we are in the same position as Thailand and Indonesia, circa 1996, except we have the reserve currency and nukes"
Fri 2008-03-21 00:00 EDT
Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff; pdf link; Reinhert: we run our bank regulation like a banana republic's
feeling; just; naked capitalism; pain; start.
