Sat 2010-05-22 19:45 EDT

billy blog >> Blog Archive >> Zimbabwe for hyperventilators 101

Zimbabwe is the new Weimar Republic. Not! Zimbabwe is the front-line evidence that shows that government deficits will generate hyper-inflation. Not! Zimbabwe is the demonstration of the folly of a fiat monetary system. Not! Zimbabwe is an African country with a dysfunctional government. Yes!...Now at the risk of repeating myself a million times, this is the macroeconomic sequence that defines responsible fiscal policy practice. This is basic macroeconomics and the debt-deficit-hyperinflation hyperventilating neo-liberal terrorists seem unable to grasp it: [Mitchell summarizes modern monetary theory (MMT)]...So a responsible government will attempt to maintain spending levels sufficient to fill any saving....

Billy Blog; blogs Archive; hyperventilators 101; Zimbabwe.

zero hedge Sat 2010-05-22 13:41 EDT

Albert Edwards: Europe Is On The Edge Of A Deflationary Precipice That Will, Paradoxically, Usher In 20-30% Inflation

A few days ago we pointed out that the latest Japanese GDP deflator came at multi-decade lows, this despite years of printing, pumping and other -ings. Today, Albert Edwards takes the observation of rampant regional deflation and concludes precisely what we have long claimed, that once rampant deflation is finally acknowledged by central bankers everywhere, and they are now running out for time, their only natural response to preserve the system will be to do what Japan has been doing for decades (successfully, they will claim) and respond with the most extreme round of monetization ever seen, "inevitably driving us towards out ultimate destination - 1970's style 20-30% inflation."...

20 30; Albert Edwards; deflationary precipice; edge; Europe; Inflation; paradox; usher; Zero Hedge.

Wed 2010-05-19 13:01 EDT

billy blog >> Blog Archive >> The origins of the economic crisis

A good way to understand the origins of the current economic crisis in Australia is to examine the historical behaviour of key macroeconomic aggregates. The previous Federal Government claimed they were responsibly managing the fiscal and monetary parameters and creating a resilient competitive economy. This was a spurious claim they were in fact setting Australia up for crisis. The reality is that the previous government created an economy which was always going to crash badly. The global nature of the crisis has arisen because over the last 2-3 decades most Western governments including the Australian government succumbed to the neo-liberal myth of budget austerity and introduced policies which allowed the destructive dynamics of the capitalist system to create an economic structure that was ultimately unsustainable. Once this instability began to manifest it was only a matter of time before the system imploded -- as we are now seeing...

Billy Blog; blogs Archive; Economic Crisis; originally.

Wed 2010-04-21 12:27 EDT

Goldman Sachs taps ex-White House counsel - Eamon Javers and Mike Allen - POLITICO.com

Eamon Javers and Mike Allen

Goldman Sachs is launching an aggressive response to its political and legal challenges with an unlikely ally at its side -- President Barack Obama's former White House counsel, Gregory Craig. The beleaguered Wall Street bank hired Craig -- now in private practice at Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom -- in recent weeks to help in navigate the halls of power in Washington, a source familiar with the firm told POLITICO...

com; Eamon Javers; Goldman Sachs taps ex-White House counsel; Mike Allen; Politicos.

Tue 2010-04-20 10:58 EDT

Get the Yuan Right, Prove Pundits Wrong: Hype over an 'imminent' increase in yuan value ignores China's greater need for higher interest rates and fewer bubbles

Andy Xie

Unless China exits its economic stimulus quickly, the nation's inflation rate could rise to double digit levels sooner than many expect. The right sequence of events for a proper response to inflation would be to raise interest rates and then, if necessary, move the yuan exchange rate. But acting on the currency first, especially in small steps, would further inflate China's property bubble and inflation, potentially leading to a major economic crisis in two years. A small increase in the yuan's value would fail to resolve two pressing problems: inflationary pressure at home, and political pressure from the United States. Moreover, a small appreciation would attract hot money, stoking inflationary pressure...

bubble; higher interest rate; hype; imminent; increased; proving pundits wrong; Yuan right; yuan value ignores China's greater need.

zero hedge Wed 2010-04-07 18:31 EDT

Quantitative Easing And Its Effect On Inflation And The Economy

Sancho Ponzi

The Fed's response to the financial meltdown was twofold: Interest rates were effectively set at zero, and the monetary base was increased 140%. While it is not known exactly what formula the Fed used to arrive at the 140% increase of the monetary base, the expansion from roughly 800 billion to 2.2 trillion roughly correlates with the asset backed securities since purchased by the Fed...Rather than an attempt to spur bank lending, Bernanke, like Paulson before him, employed QE strictly to offload toxic assets from bank balance sheets in an attempt to make banks and other financial institutions whole, with the effect of preserving historically inflated asset valuations for residential real estate. As a result, massive increases in federal spending have been required to offset the erosion of private sector GDP...

economy; effect; Inflation; Quantitative Easing; Zero Hedge.

Tue 2010-03-09 18:13 EST

Gandhi's Seven Blunders - and then some

Donella Meadows

A few weeks before he was assassinated, Gandhi the Mahatma had a conversation with his grandson Arun. He handed Arun a talisman upon which were engraved "Seven Blunders," out of which, said Gandhi, grows the violence that plagues the world. The blunders were: Wealth without work. Pleasure without conscience. Knowledge without character. Commerce without morality. Science without humanity. Worship without sacrifice. Politics without principles. Gandhi called these disbalances "passive violence," which fuels the active violence of crime, rebellion, and war. He said, "We could work till doomsday to achieve peace and would get nowhere as long as we ignore passive violence in our world." To his grandfather's list of seven blunders Arun later added an eighth: Rights without responsibilities. Gandhi gave the list to Arun in 1947. Almost 50 years later the blunders have been institutionalized, built into our corporations, our governments, our very culture. Not only are we no longer embarrassed by them; we actively practice them. In some of them we even take pride...

blunders; Gandhi s.

zero hedge Tue 2010-03-09 17:59 EST

Is The Federal Reserve Insolvent?

...For a refined analysis of what would happen in that moment of clarity when the world realizes the world's biggest bank is broke, we turn to a presentation by Chris Sims, given before Princeton University, titled "Fiscal/Monetary Coordination When The Anchor Cable Has Snapped."...discusses precisely the issues were are faced with today: namely a monetary policy that has run amok, seignorage, exploding excess reserves, the impact of these on "power money", and, in general, a Fed balance sheet that is increasingly reminiscent of a drunk, rapid and schizophrenic bull in a China store...the only way to deal with a mark-to-market of the Fed currently is to embrace monetization. It is no longer a question of semantics, of who promised what: it is the only mechanical way by which the Fed can dig itself out of a capital deficiency. With GSE delinquencies exploding, and with the Fed (and Congress) singlehandedly facilitating imprudent lender policy by allowing ever more borrowers to become deliquent without consequences, the MBS delinquency rate will likely hit 10% over the next 6-12 months. At that moment, someone will ask the Fed: "what is the true basis of your capital account?" And when the Fed is forced to justify a valid response, is when monetizaton will begin...

Federal Reserve Insolvent; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Sun 2010-02-28 13:08 EST

Martin Wolf is Very Gloomy, and With Good Reason

Martin Wolf, the Financial Times' highly respected chief economics editor, weighs in with a pretty pessimistic piece tonight. This makes for a companion to Peter Boone and Simon Johnson's Doomsday cycle post from yesterday...With the private sector debt overhang as great as it is, I doubt there is a way out of our mess that does not involve a period of debt restructuring and writeoffs. That process, no matter how adeptly handled, results in dislocation and has a chilling effect on bystanders...Swedish Lex interestingly sees another possible brake that may become operative prior to another bubble/bust cycle. He believes that the EU has much less tolerance for underwriting zombie banks than the US. The EuroBanks have written off less in the way of losses than their US peers, are also exposed to any EU sovereign debt defaults, and yet the biggest are still crucial parts of the international capital markets infrastructure (and therefore still tightly coupled to the very biggest US/UK firms). While any EU sovereign debt defaults could morph into a full blown crisis, the EU responses to the joint sovereign/bank debt overhang could lead to more radical changes in EU banking rules and practices that could blow back to the very biggest US banks in unexpected ways.

gloomy; good reason; Martin Wolf; naked capitalism.

naked capitalism Thu 2010-02-25 19:45 EST

The U.S. opts for the bailout hustle over the Swedish banking crisis response

Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns

...my post: The Swedish banking crisis response -- a model for the future? from August 2008 which describes a piece by former Riksbanks head Urban Bäckström from way back in 1997! This is the number one entry on the Internet when you search for `Swedish banking crisis.' Now, this was before the Lehman debacle. And I anticipated massive credit writedowns for the global financial system which would precipitate a major financial crisis. Of course, this is what happened. But, pre-Lehman, I was looking for a banking crisis response model which would prove effective. I looked at the Japanese model and found it wanting. The Nordic model is more promising... Now, the information about these financial crisis strategies was readily available in the public domain for years. I mean, my blog post was based on a 1997 article for goodness sake. Clearly, the Obama people didn't want this solution because they are captured by the financial services industry. That's why the U.S. is going the Japanese route of bailouts and accounting dodges.

Bailout Hustle; naked capitalism; Swedish banking crisis response; U.S. Opts.

The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com Fri 2010-01-29 16:28 EST

'Freefall' Excerpt: Too Late To Fix The Biggest Banking Blunder In History?

The Huffington Post News Editors

Reprinted from Freefall by Joseph Stiglitz. Copyright (c) 2010 by Joseph E. Stiglitz. Used with permission of the publisher, W.W. Norton & Company, Inc. The entire series of efforts to rescue the banking system were so flawed, partly because those who were somewhat responsible for the mess--as advocates of deregulation, as failed regulators, or as investment bankers--were put in charge of the repair...

Biggest Banking Blunder; com; excerpts; Fix; freefall; full Feeds; History; HuffingtonPost; lately.

Jesse's Café Américain Fri 2010-01-29 16:27 EST

Morgan Paying Out 62% of Revenues in Bonuses and Pay While Average Families Face 'Years of Pain'

Jesse

One has to wonder how much of that 'revenue' is merely the result of artificial mark to market accounting and prop desk speculation, and not real cash flow from commercial banking operations.That is not the pay method for a bank. That's a hedge fund. And that would be all very well and good if they were a hedge fund and responsible for their own failures and successes, but they are obtaining the discount window and federal guarantees and subsidies from the taxpayers as though they were a commercial bank...if the bankers keep taking 50+% of all the cash that touches their hands from the public subsidy, then what trickles down to the people won't accomplish anything. Years of zombie-like stagflation look to be the prognosis...The economic hitmen and the corrupt politicians are taking their pay, and the people and their children and most likely grandchildren will be stuck with unpayable debts. Just like a third world nation, which is what the US will look like when they get done cutting health, infrastructure, education, and basic services to pay for this.

62; Average Families Face; bonus; Jesse's Café Américain; Morgan pay; pain; pay; Revenues; years.

naked capitalism Mon 2010-01-11 20:12 EST

Guest Post: The Military-Industrial Compex is Ruining the Economy

George Washington

Everyone knows that the too big to fails and their dishonest and footsy-playing regulators and politicians are largely responsible for trashing the economy. But the military-industrial complex shares much of the blame.

economy; Guest Post; Military-Industrial Compex; naked capitalism; ruins.

naked capitalism Fri 2010-01-08 19:33 EST

Geithner's dubious AIG cover up

Edward Harrison

...This was looting and a cover-up plain and simple...Damaging e-mails have revealed that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner urged AIG to withhold crucial information about the deterioration of its financial condition in the lead up to its demise...He was on the job when these firms levered up and took reckless risks that endangered our financial system. For him to absolve himself of responsibility is a disgrace. And to add insult to injury, we now learn that he urged a systemically important company to withhold evidence of his looting of taxpayers. Tim Geithner must go.

Geithner's dubious AIG cover; naked capitalism.

zero hedge Sun 2010-01-03 16:28 EST

TrimTabs Asks: Who Is Responsible For The Non-Stop Market Rally Since March; Gives Some Suggestions

TrimTabs' Charles Biderman

If the money to boost stock prices did not come from the traditional players, it had to have come from somewhere else. We do not know where all the money has come from. What we do know is that the U.S. government has spent hundreds of billions of dollars to support the auto industry, the housing market, and the banks and brokers. Why not support the stock market as well?

gives; March; Non-Stop Market Rally; response; suggesting; TrimTabs Asks; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Mon 2009-12-28 15:57 EST

What Came First: The Federal Reserve Or Economic Bubbles? A Brief History Of The Federal Reserve's Creation

A fantastic history of the reasons for, and the creation of, the Federal Reserve, courtesy of Murray Rothbard and our friends at Mises Institute, with the article originally appearing in Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, Vol. 2, No. 3 (Fall 1999), pp. 3--51. It is also reprinted in A History of Money and Banking in the United States and as a monograph. This is a must read for anyone who is curious why the Federal Reserve (with or without Goldman) is the sole organization responsible for not only perpetuating the interests of a select few of financial oligarchs, but in essence shaping monetary, fiscal, financial and political policy in the entire developed world.

Brief History; CAME; economic bubbles; Federal Reserve; Federal Reserve's Creation; Zero Hedge.