Calculated Risk Wed 2010-09-08 17:55 EDT

Freddie Mac: $4.7 billion Loss, REO Inventory increases 79% YoY

CalculatedRisk

Freddie Mac reported: "a net loss of $4.7 billion for the quarter ended June 30, 2010, compared to a net loss of $6.7 billion for the quarter ended March 31, 2010." and the FHFA requested another $1.8 billion from Treasury...Freddie Mac reported that their REO inventory increased 79% year over year, from 34,699 in Q2 2009 to 62,178 in Q2 2010...

4; 7; Calculated Risk; Freddie Mac; losses; REO Inventory increases 79; YoY.

naked capitalism Sat 2010-07-24 16:34 EDT

Summer Rerun: ``Unwinding the Fraud for Bubbles''

Tanta at Calculated Risk

This post first appeared on March 27, 2007. ...Telling the difference between the victims and the victimizers, the predators and the prey, and the fraudulent and the defrauded, is getting a lot harder when you have borrowers not required to make down payments able to lie about their incomes in order to buy a home the seller is overpricing in order to take an illegal kickback. The lender is getting defrauded, but the lender is the one who offered the zero-down stated-income program, delegated the drawing up of the legal documents and the final disbursement of funds to a fee-for-service settlement agent, and didn't do enough due diligence on the appraisal to see the inflation of the value. Legally, of course, there's a difference between lender as co-conspirator and lender as mark, utterly failing to exercise reasonable caution, but it's small comfort when the losses rack up. With tongue only partially in cheek, I'm about to suggest a third category of fraud: Fraud for Bubbles...My theory of the Fraud for Bubbles is, in a nutshell, that it isn't that lenders forgot that there are risks. It is that the miserable dynamic of unsound lending puffing up unsustainable real estate prices, which in turn kept supporting even more unsound lending, simply masked fraud problems sufficiently, and delayed the eventual ``feedback'' mechanisms sufficiently, that rampant fraud came to seem ``affordable.'' So many of the business practices that help fraud succeed--thinning backoffice staff, hiring untrained temps to replace retiring (and pricey) veterans, speeding up review processes, cutting back on due diligence sampling, accepting more and more copies, faxes, and phone calls instead of original ink-signed documents--threw off so much money that no one wanted to believe that the eventual cost of the fraud would eat it all up, and possibly more...

bubble; fraud; naked capitalism; summer reruns; unwinds.

Sat 2010-05-22 19:56 EDT

36,000 firms at high risk of collapse: Dun & Bradstreet - Business news, business advice and information for Australian SMEs | SmartCompany

James Thomson

Credit agency Dun & Bradstreet has delivered a blunt warning to SMEs about the patchy state of the economic recovery, warning it downgraded the risk profiles of a staggering 80,000 firms during the March quarter -- a greater number of firms than were downgraded during the first quarter of 2009. D&B now has 36,000 firms rated as being at "high risk" failure over the next 12 months, with the majority of those being smaller and young firms (less than four years of operation). D&B's director of corporate affairs Damian Karmelich, says the spike in risk downgrades is particularly worrying when compared to last year, when the economy was performing much worse...

000 firms; 36; Australian SMEs; Bradstreet; business advice; Business news; Collapse; dun; high-risk; inform; SmartCompany.

Wed 2010-05-19 13:23 EDT

Conspiracy of Banks Rigging States Came With Crash (Update1)

...a nationwide conspiracy in which financial advisers to municipalities colluded with Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Wachovia Corp. and 11 other banks... rigged bids on auctions for so-called guaranteed investment contracts, known as GICs, according to a Justice Department list that was filed in U.S. District Court in Manhattan on March 24 and then put under seal. Those contracts hold tens of billions of taxpayer money...The workings of the conspiracy -- which stretched from California to Pennsylvania and included more than 200 deals involving about 160 state agencies, local governments and non- profits -- can be pieced together from the Justice Department's indictment of CDR, civil lawsuits by governments around the country, e-mails obtained by Bloomberg News and interviews with current and former bankers and public officials. "The whole investment process was rigged across the board," said Charlie Anderson, who retired in 2007 as head of field operations for the Internal Revenue Service's tax-exempt bond division. "It was so commonplace that people talked about it on the phones of their employers and ignored the fact that they were being recorded." Anderson said he referred scores of cases to the Justice Department when he was with the IRS. He estimates that bid rigging cost taxpayers billions of dollars...

Banks Rigging States Came; conspiracy; Crash; Update1.

Credit Writedowns Sun 2010-05-09 09:06 EDT

Guest Post: Possible Misunderstandings about Municipalities and their Bonds

Frederick Sheehan

Problems of state and municipal finance worsen. Governors announce new spending cuts at press conferences but inspire little confidence. The fury of emergency announcements leaves the listener (as well as the governors) in a daze. Research reports offer broad explanations but have left bondholders, as well as employees and local residents, unprepared for discontinuities. In other words, there will be instances when these constituencies will find themselves marched to the slaughterhouse without warning...

bonds; credit writedowns; Guest Post; municipalities; Possible Misunderstandings.

Jesse's Café Américain Sun 2010-05-09 08:30 EDT

Guest Post: The Perils of Credit Money Systems Managed by Private Corporations

Jesse

...The paper system being founded on public confidence and having of itself no intrinsic value, is liable to great and sudden fluctuations, thereby rendering property insecure and the wages of labor unsteady and uncertain.The corporations which create the paper money cannot be relied upon to keep the circulating medium uniform in amount. In times of prosperity, when confidence is high, they are tempted by the prospect of gain or by the influence of those who hope to profit by it to extend their issues of paper beyond the bounds of discretion and the reasonable demands of business. And when these issues have been pushed on from day to day until the public confidence is at length shaken, then a reaction takes place, and they immediately withdraw the credits they have given; suddenly curtail their issues; and produce an unexpected and ruinous contraction of the circulating medium which is felt by the whole community. The banks, by this means, save themselves, and the mischievous consequences of their imprudence or cupidity are visited upon the public. Nor does the evil stop here. These ebbs and flows in the currency and these indiscreet extensions of credit naturally engender a spirit of speculation injurious to the habits and character of the people...Recent events have proved that the paper money system of this country may be used as an engine to undermine your free institutions; and that those who desire to engross all power in the hands of the few and to govern by corruption or force are aware of its power and prepared to employ it... Andrew Jackson, Farewell Address, March 4, 1837

Credit Money Systems Managed; Guest Post; Jesse's Café Américain; peril; private corporations.

Tue 2010-04-27 08:22 EDT

Anecdotal Economics: A Chicken in Every VAT

...The retail consumer is back, and she* is in the mood to shop, we reliably are told. The Census Bureau reported March 2010 Advance Retail and Food Service Sales improved 7.6 percent from a year ago, and for 1Q2010 are 5.5 percent above 1Q2009...So why do state sales tax revenues tell a different, disconnected story? In the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government's April 2010 State Revenue Report, which chronicles the woeful status of state tax collections, concludes that sales tax collections fell almost 9.0 percent in 2009, a statistically significant 2.8 percent more than the reported decline in retail and food service sales made up estimated by the Census Bureau...It's a significant disconnect between theory (Census Bureau) and reality (actual sales tax collections), much as the similar, significant disconnect between the Employment Situation reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (theory), which appears to be masking the true extent of unemployment in America with all those marginally attached and discouraged workers, and the meaningful decline in actual payroll tax withholdings (reality), as reported by the Treasury Department in its Daily Treasury Statements...

Anecdotal Economics; chickens; VAT.

Mon 2010-04-26 14:57 EDT

SPIEGEL ONLINE - Druckversion - A Homecoming for Lost Jobs: Burned by Offshoring, Mid-Sized Firms Return Production to Germany - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

SPIEGEL ONLINE, Hamburg, Germany

The trend towards offshoring production from Germany to other countries is slowly being reversed, with medium-sized businesses leading the way. In fact, Germany is itself becoming an attractive location for foreign investment...Many thousands of German companies joined the march to Eastern Europe and China during the past 15 years, hoping to reduce production costs there. But recently many have been returning, disillusioned. Smaller companies in particular are finding they overestimated the apparent advantages of low labor costs or more advantageous tax laws. So far, it has not been the largest and most well known companies that have begun reconsidering Germany as a production location. And the return home usually involves considerably less ballyhoo than the earlier offshoring of production. Nevertheless, the trend is significant because medium-sized companies are both the heart and the driving force behind the German economy...

burned; Druckversion; Germany; homecoming; International; Lost Jobs; Mid-Sized Firms Return Production; news; offshore; Spiegel Online.

zero hedge Fri 2010-04-23 20:02 EDT

An Overview Of The Fed's Intervention In Equity Markets Via The Primary Dealer Credit Facility

Recently, Zero Hedge presented a snapshot analysis of the various securities that made up the triparty repo agreement involving JPM, Lehman and the Fed. We uncovered numerous bankrupt companies' equities that were being pledged as collateral for what ultimately was taxpayer exposure. To our surprise, this discovery is not an exception, and in fact in the days immediately preceding the collapse of Bear Stearns first, and subsequently, Lehman Brothers, the Federal Reserve established and refined a program that permitted banks to pledge virtually any security as collateral, including not just investment grade bonds and higher ranked securities, but also stocks of companies, the riskiest investment possible, and a guaranteed way for taxpayer capital to evaporate in the context of a disintegrating financial system, all with the purpose of bailing out Wall Street's major institutions. On two occasions last year: on March 16, 2008, and subsequently on September 14, 2008, the Federal Reserve first established what is known as the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF), and subsequently amended it, so that the Fed, in becoming the lender of last resort, would allow any collateral, up to and including stocks, to be funded by the Federal Reserve's credit facility, in order to prevent the $4.5 trillion repo financing system from imploding. By doing so, the Federal Reserve effectively gave a Carte Blanche to primary dealers to purchase any and all equities they so desired, with such purchases immediately being funded by the US taxpayer, via the PDCF. In essence, this was equivalent to the Fed purchasing equities by itself through a Primary Dealer agent...

equity markets; Fed's interventions; overview; Primary Dealers Credit Facility; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Fri 2010-03-19 15:02 EDT

SEC, Fed Alerted By Merrill of Lehman Balance Sheet Games in March 2008

...The Valukas report shows both regulators were monitoring Lehman on a day-to-day basis shortly after Bear's failure. They recognized that it has a massive hole in its balance sheet, yet took an inertial course of action. They pressured a clearly in denial Fuld to raise capital (and Andrew Ross Sorkin's accounts of those efforts make it clear they were likely to fail) and did not take steps towards any other remedy until the firm was on the brink of collapse (the effort to force a private sector bailout as part of a good bank/bad bank resolution)...Merrill warned both the SEC and the Fed in March 2008 that Lehman was engaging in balance sheet window dressing of a serious enough nature for it to put pressure on Merrill (as in it was making Merrill look worse relative to the obviously impaired Lehman)...

Fed Alerted; Lehman Balance Sheet Games; March 2008; Merrill; naked capitalism; SEC.

The Economic Populist - Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time Sun 2010-02-07 18:20 EST

Is Residential Real Estate a Ticking Time Bomb?

...First is the latest SIGTARP report saying the Government has become the mortgage market with U.S. taxpayers shouldering the risk. From the SIGTARP report we have a 100% government mortgage market at this point...Fannie and Freddie now have an unlimited bailout and it is estimated they have lost $400 billion dollars. The plan is to purchase $1.25 trillion mortgage backed securities from these two GSEs until the end of March...The number of homeowners who are strategically walking away from their mortgages is up to 10% this year...All of the above free money, the government pouring in trillions of dollars to prop up the housing market. Yet while price declines have slowed, prices are still declining and the above simply cannot go on forever. In fact one thing isn't going on forever. The Fed will stop buying MBSes at the end of March, 2010. So, when our government created illusion does pop, do we then have the real housing bubble implosion?

economic populist; Mind 2 Cents; residential real estate; speaking; ticking time bomb; Time.

Sun 2010-01-31 23:06 EST

The Formula for This Market Rally In Simple Terms

The first, most obvious trend is the Manic Mondays trend...for the 43 weeks ended Friday January 8, 2010, stocks have rallied on 30 out of the 43 Mondays...these Monday ramp jobs have contributed the bulk of the market rally's gains since March 2009...The second trend that has dominated this market since the March 2009 bottom is the Bernanke Options Expiration juicing. In simple terms Ben Bernanke has shown a REAL preference for pumping money into the financial system on the exact week when options are expiring...The final trend that has dominated this market is cousin to the Manic Monday Ramp Job. It is the Night Session Ramp Job...from September 13, 2009 until year-end, ALL of the stock market's gains occurred in the over-night futures session from 4:00 ET to 9:30 AM ET...So there you have it, the three most dominant trends of this market rally. None of them are pretty. None of them involve fundamentals. And ALL of them are directly related to the Fed's liquidity pump.

Formula; markets Rally; simple terms.

Clusterfuck Nation Sun 2010-01-31 11:40 EST

Marching Toward Zombieland

James Howard Kunstler

...The questions lately revolve around whether the nation is destroying itself by inflation or deflation - by the willful destruction of the value of our currency to evade the repayment of debt, or by the hapless destruction of households, companies, and governments by default and bankruptcy. It's a fire-or-ice debate. Either way the nation is going down as a viable enterprise. The fiction that we can return to a Crate-and-Barrel credit card orgy has sustained the false of heart and mind for some months now, but even that pleasant reverie will come to an end as the foreclosures mount. Only remember, men living in their cars who have lost nearly everything else will still have guns.

Clusterfuck Nation; March; Zombieland.

zero hedge Sun 2010-01-03 16:28 EST

TrimTabs Asks: Who Is Responsible For The Non-Stop Market Rally Since March; Gives Some Suggestions

TrimTabs' Charles Biderman

If the money to boost stock prices did not come from the traditional players, it had to have come from somewhere else. We do not know where all the money has come from. What we do know is that the U.S. government has spent hundreds of billions of dollars to support the auto industry, the housing market, and the banks and brokers. Why not support the stock market as well?

gives; March; Non-Stop Market Rally; response; suggesting; TrimTabs Asks; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Mon 2009-12-28 15:12 EST

Quantitative Easing Has Been A Monetary Failure; Persistent Deflation Means More Fed Intervention Coming Soon

As more and more pundits discuss the spectre of inflation, with gold flying to all time highs which many explain as an inflation hedge, not to mention stock price performance which is extrapolating virtual hyperinflation, the market "truth" as determined by Fed Fund futures and options is, and continues to be, diametrically opposite...Bernanke is very likely about to unleash Quantitative Easing 2: If the $1.7 trillion already thrown at the problem has not fixed it, you can bet that the Chairman will not stop here. Furthermore, as the Fed has the best perspective on the economy, which is certainly far worse than is represented, the Fed has to act fast before things escalate even more out of control. Which is why Zero Hedge is willing to wager that not only will the agency/MBS program not expire in March as it is supposed to, but that a parallel QE process will likely begin very shortly. The end result of all these actions, of course, is that the value of the dollar is about to plummet: when Bernanke announces that not only will he not end QE but that he will launch another version of the program, expect the dollar to take off on its one way path to $2 = €1. And when that happens, look for global trade to cease completely. In its quest to continue bailing out the banking system and rolling the trillions of toxic loans it refuses to accept are worthless (for if it did, equity values in the banking system would go, to zero immediately), the Fed will promptly resume destroying not only the US middle class, but the entire system of global trade built through many years of globalization. Look for America to end up in an insulated liquidity bubble in a few short years, trading exclusively with its vassal master: the People's Republic of China.

Fed Intervention Coming; Monetary Failure; Persistent Deflation Means; Quantitative Easing; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Thu 2009-12-17 10:37 EST

Is Selling US CDS A Risk-Free Way To Short The Dollar?

There has been much conjecture on whether using CDS is an effective way to hedge against US default risk. Many theoreticians, especially those of the post-March lows variety, have sprung up and are speculating that buying Credit Default Swaps on the US is ultimately a futile and pointless endeavor. The main argument: a US default would likely mean that interconnected dealers won't recognize contracts on a US default event, as they themselves will be out of business. Even if they continued to exist, like cockroaches in a postapocalyptic world, the collateral which backs derivatives is mostly US Treasurys: the same obligations that would end up being massively impaired...the US CDS seller syndicate could easily be one of the key sources of dollar short funding: with sellers pocketing euros and immediately going to market and selling dollars...a dollar-short unwind would probably have repercussions in the US CDS market. Not only would the dollar spike, but paradoxically US credit risk would probably widen dramatically...any unwind at the heart of the prevalent risk trade now: the massive dollar carry, would impact virtually every investment product, quite possibly in self-referential feedback loops. If correct, it merely shows how much more the Fed has at stake in keeping the dollar depressed than merely getting mom and pop to buy Amazon at $130/share. Losing control of the carry trade will be the systemic equivalent of allowing Lehman's book to be marked-to-market: a potentially complete collapse in systemic confidence, which would have such far ranging implications as the $300 trillion interest rate derivative market. And when sudden volatility reaches this product universe which is 6 times bigger than world GDP, the events from last year will seem like a dress rehearsal.

CDS; Dollar; Risk-Free Way; sell; short; Zero Hedge.

Wed 2009-11-25 09:59 EST

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: "Should Come as No Shock to Anyone" - November 16, 2009

John P. Hussman

The big picture is this. There is most probably a second wave of mortgage defaults in the immediate future as a result of Alt-A and Option-ARM resets. Yet our capacity to deal with these losses has already been strained by the first round that largely ended in March. The Federal Reserve has taken a massive amount of mortgage-backed securities onto a balance sheet that used to be restricted to Treasury securities. The purchase of these securities is reflected by a surge in cash reserves held by banks. Not only are the banks not lending these funds, they are contracting their loan portfolios rapidly. Ultimately, in order to unwind the Fed's position in these securities, it will have to sell them back to the public and absorb those excess reserves, so to some extent, the banking system can count on losing the deposits created by the Fed's actions, and can't make long-term loans with these funds anyway. Increasingly, the Fed has decided to forgo the idea of repurchase agreements (which require the seller to repurchase the security at a later date), and is instead making outright purchases of the debt of government sponsored enterprises (GSEs such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). Again, the Fed used to purchase only Treasuries outright, but it is purchasing agency securities with the excuse that these securities are implicitly backed by the U.S. government. This strikes me as a huge mistake, because it effectively impairs the Fed's ability to get rid of the securities at the price it paid for them, should Congress change its approach toward the GSEs. It simultaneously complicates Congress' ability to address the problem because Bernanke has tied the integrity of our monetary base to these assets. The policy of the Fed and Treasury amounts to little more than obligating the public to defend the bondholders of mismanaged financial companies, and to absorb losses that should have been borne by irresponsible lenders. From my perspective, this is nothing short of an unconstitutional abuse of power, as the actions of the Fed (not to mention some of Geithner's actions at the Treasury) ultimately have the effect of diverting public funds to reimburse private losses, even though spending is the specifically enumerated power of the Congress alone.

2009; comes; Hussman Funds; November 16; shocks; weekly market comments.

zero hedge Thu 2009-11-19 10:38 EST

An Overview Of The Fed's Intervention In Equity Markets Via The Primary Dealer Credit Facility

the Federal Reserve established and refined a program that permitted banks to pledge virtually any security as collateral, including not just investment grade bonds and higher ranked securities, but also stocks of companies, the riskiest investment possible, and a guaranteed way for taxpayer capital to evaporate in the context of a disintegrating financial system, all with the purpose of bailing out Wall Street's major institutions. On two occasions last year: on March 16, 2008, and subsequently on September 14, 2008, the Federal Reserve first established what is known as the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF), and subsequently amended it, so that the Fed, in becoming the lender of last resort, would allow any collateral, up to and including stocks, to be funded by the Federal Reserve's credit facility, in order to prevent the $4.5 trillion repo financing system from imploding. By doing so, the Federal Reserve effectively gave a Carte Blanche to primary dealers to purchase any and all equities they so desired, with such purchases immediately being funded by the US taxpayer, via the PDCF. In essence, this was equivalent to the Fed purchasing equities by itself through a Primary Dealer agent.

equity markets; Fed's interventions; overview; Primary Dealers Credit Facility; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Tue 2009-10-27 11:25 EDT

The Manhattan Project: Did Bernanke Use The Monetary Nuclear Option?

Geoffrey Batt

...was the Fed's policy response on March 18, 2009 the financial equivalent of Fat Man and Little Boy? (The direct purchase of equities?)...did the Fed exceed its policy statement by directly buying assets not contemplated therein?...Did Bernanke, encouraged by Goldman's Hatzius, heed his own advice and monetize the equity markets?

Bernanke used; Manhattan Project; Monetary Nuclear Option; Zero Hedge.

Tue 2009-06-16 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Case Shiller March 2009 Analysis

Case Shiller March 2009 Analysis; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Tue 2009-04-21 00:00 EDT

Hussman Funds - On the Urgency of Restructuring Bank and Mortgage Debt, and of Abandoning Toxic Asset Purchases - March 30, 2009

2009; Abandoning Toxic Asset Purchases; Hussman Funds; March 30; mortgage debt; restructured bank; urgency.

Tue 2009-04-21 00:00 EDT

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Fed and Treasury - Putting off Hard Choices with Easy Money (and Probable Chaos) - March 23, 2009

2009; easy money; Fed; Hard Choice; Hussman Funds; March 23; Probable Chaos; putting; Treasury; weekly market comments.

Wed 2008-07-02 00:00 EDT

Peak Oil Debunked: 365. MASSIVE DROP IN U.S. DEMAND IN APRIL

"supply outstripping demand theory of the feverish price action since March s emanating an extremely fish-like odor. U.S. demand down by a whopping 0.8mbd year-on-year."

365; April; massive drop; Peak Oil Debunked; U. S. demand.

Mon 2008-03-31 00:00 EDT

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: What Congress and Investors Should Understand About the Bear Stearns Deal - March 31, 2008

"Protecting the bondholders of investment banks is not an efficient way to help homeowners."

2008; Bear Stearns Deal; Congress; Hussman Funds; Investors; March 31; understanding; weekly market comments.