Wed 2010-06-09 18:56 EDT

Rajiv Sethi: The New Market Makers

...the SEC's preliminary report on the flash crash...led me to believe that most of this activity was caused by algorithmic trading strategies placing directional bets based on rapid responses to incoming market data. Two strategies in particular -- momentum ignition and order anticipation -- were explicitly mentioned as potentially destabilizing forces in the SEC's January Concept Release on Equity Market Structure. The SEC invited comments on the release, and dozens of these have been posted to date. There is one in particular, submitted by R.T. Leuchtkafer about three weeks before the crash, that I think is especially informative and analytically compelling...Leuchtkafer traces the history of recent changes in market microstructure and examines the resulting implications for the timing of liquidity demand and supply...The standard argument against increased regulation of the new market makers is that it would interfere with their ability to supply liquidity. Leuchtkafer argues, instead, that the strategies used by these firms cause them to demand liquidity at precisely those moments when liquidity is shortest supply...

New Market Makers; Rajiv Sethi.

naked capitalism Tue 2010-06-01 20:06 EDT

When Will Europe Have Its Wile E. Coyote Moment?

...The current program instead is ultimately about protecting Eurobanks from losses, and is destined to fail. John Mauldin, in his newsletters, has been featuring the work of Rob Parenteau, as featured first here on Naked Capitalism (and a source of much reader ire): that deleveraging the public sector and the private sector at the same time is impossible absent a big rise in exports. Pretty much every major economy is on a ``reduce government debt'' campaign. Many are also on a ``deleverage the private sector'' program too (which is warranted, given the amount of profligate lending that occurred). The problem, however, is that these states can't all increase exports, particularly to the degree sought...Rob Parenteau drew out the implications in an earlier post: ``...if households and businesses in the peripheral nations stubbornly defend their current net saving positions [continue to reduce debt levels], the attempt at fiscal retrenchment will be thwarted by a deflationary drop in nominal GDP. ''...This feels like 2007 all over again, with the authorities insistent that Things Will Be Fine, when a realistic assessment suggests the reverse.

Europe; naked capitalism; Wile E. Coyote Moment.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Sat 2010-05-22 13:55 EDT

Richard Koo On Why This Recession Is Different; Mish On What To Do About It

Michael Shedlock

The Business Insider has a very interesting presentation by Richard Koo on The Real Reason Why This Recession Is Completely Different...The reason the recession is different is this is credit bubble busting depression not a recession. The effects are masked because of food stamps, unemployment insurance, and because of foreclosure policy...Koo blames cutbacks in fiscal stimulus in 1999 and 2001 as the reason Japan remains mired in deflation. I do not buy it...The real lesson is no matter how much money you throw around, economies cannot recover until noncollectable debts are written off...The moment fiscal stimulus stops economies are virtually guaranteed to relapse until the core problem is resolved. The problem is Asset Bubbles, Malinvestments, and debts that cannot possibly be collected...

different; Mish; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; Recession; Richard Koo.

naked capitalism Wed 2010-04-07 19:38 EDT

Have Bloggers ``Won''? And Is That a Bad Thing?

...[MSM difficulties] Richard Kline: ...Most of the MSM is owned by large corporations which abhor any serious questioning of the status quo. Most of the MSM decided a generation ago to pitch their product at the soft middle of the demographic curve; that's `dumb down' to those ow you who need a scorecard. Most of the MSM went to recent journalism school and bought into the idea of false `balancing' which has castrated their editorial opinion in favor of whoever is driving debate by telling the latest Big Lie. Then there is the problem of self-interested 'sources,' hardly new, and manageable when journalists were allowed to have an opinion themselves, but deleterious when they are supposed to be `neutral,' i.e. readily maniplulatible. Then there is the issue that too many journalists have decided to become propagandists for the status quo of the moment, making their reportage the worst kind of bandwagon swillage. Then too, MSM has responded, or rather _not_ responded to the emergence of new kinds of media spreading current information reportage: just when the MSM needs established `quality brand' to fall back on they find that they gutted the brand to fellate large shareholders and the interests of the same.

bad things; bloggers; naked capitalism; won.

zero hedge Tue 2010-03-09 17:59 EST

Is The Federal Reserve Insolvent?

...For a refined analysis of what would happen in that moment of clarity when the world realizes the world's biggest bank is broke, we turn to a presentation by Chris Sims, given before Princeton University, titled "Fiscal/Monetary Coordination When The Anchor Cable Has Snapped."...discusses precisely the issues were are faced with today: namely a monetary policy that has run amok, seignorage, exploding excess reserves, the impact of these on "power money", and, in general, a Fed balance sheet that is increasingly reminiscent of a drunk, rapid and schizophrenic bull in a China store...the only way to deal with a mark-to-market of the Fed currently is to embrace monetization. It is no longer a question of semantics, of who promised what: it is the only mechanical way by which the Fed can dig itself out of a capital deficiency. With GSE delinquencies exploding, and with the Fed (and Congress) singlehandedly facilitating imprudent lender policy by allowing ever more borrowers to become deliquent without consequences, the MBS delinquency rate will likely hit 10% over the next 6-12 months. At that moment, someone will ask the Fed: "what is the true basis of your capital account?" And when the Fed is forced to justify a valid response, is when monetizaton will begin...

Federal Reserve Insolvent; Zero Hedge.

Sun 2010-02-28 13:39 EST

America's Future: My Baseline Scenario | Ian Welsh

1) employment is not going to recover to pre-great recession levels for at least a generation, maybe more, in terms of % of people employed. The late Clinton economy is the best you or I will see in our working lives. 2) Politics will continue to be dominated by monied interests and that dominance will increase, rather than decrease. They will use their power to fight over the shrinking pie, rather than to increase it, and will make any real systemic restructuring of the economy essentially impossible. 3) a right wing ``populist'' will get in after Obama. Since the only sort of stimulus they can do is war stimulus, they will pick a war with someone. Who, I'm not sure. In economic terms they will have all the wrong solutions to various real problems... Americans will put off cutting the military, I think, till they've gutted virtually everything else. I expect the military will probably win the fight against financial interests when the moment comes, though we'll see...

America s future; Baseline Scenario; Ian Welsh.

Wed 2009-12-16 15:37 EST

How would today's SuperInflation compare with the 1970s? - Debtor's prison -

we are staunch believers that Uncle Benny and Co's wild monetary adventures will result in massive inflation down the line...at the moment, regulators, the media and some portion of the public are more concerned about the prospects of deflation...The purpose of this post is, instead, to hypothesize about what would happen if SuperInflation does indeed come to pass, as we expect it will.

1970s; Debtor s Prison; s SuperInflation compare.

Jesse's Café Américain Tue 2009-11-03 19:36 EST

Obama's Economic Policy Has Doomed the US to Stagnation - Or Worse

Jesse

This was the very moment of Obama's failure, when he allowed Summers, Geithner and Bernanke to establish the principle of "Too Big To Fail" and set up a financial oligarchy at the expense of taxpayers. We would have expected this out of the Treasury under Hank Paulson, but to see this kind of policy error favoring Wall Street over the US taxpayers from a government elected on the promise of reform is inexcusable, a disgrace. ...(Bloomberg) Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said the world's biggest economy is suffering because of the U.S. government's failure to nationalize banks during the financial crisis.

doomed; Jesse's Café Américain; Obama s economic policy; stagnated; worse.

The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com Tue 2009-10-27 11:21 EDT

George Goehl: A New Crossover Hit: "Break Up the Big Banks"

George Goehl

We've reached an incredible moment when Alan Greenspan, Michael Moore, FDIC head Sheila Bair and Elizabeth Warren are all singing the same tune. These four, and others, have formed a distinct choir that is calling for breaking up the big banks.

big banks; break; com; full Feeds; George Goehl; HuffingtonPost; New Crossover Hit.

naked capitalism Sun 2009-09-20 11:53 EDT

Financial Reform: Not happening but the need is clear

Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns

If you are looking for reform in the financial sector, the moment has passed. And only to the degree that the underlying weaknesses in the global financial system are made manifest and threaten the economy will we see any appetite for reform amongst politicians. So, as I see it, the Obama administration has missed the opportunity for reform...Steve Keen, an Australian economist whose theories are heavily influenced by Hyman Minsky, has a cogent analysis of the true structural deficits in the current economic model...today we have finally reached a level of debt which is so great that another reflation is impossible. The collapse is now....unlike Keen, I am not convinced the time is now...What I would like to see is economic thought leaders developing a blueprint of a financial crisis strategy which tackles both the immediate crisis issues (liquidity) and the structural, regulatory and monetary issues that create financial volatility (solvency). When crisis does occur, I believe it will be systemic in nature due to the forces Keen so lucidly explains. Therefore, a blueprint which is 1) heavy on tactics and, 2) if implemented in a real systemic crisis, is likely to work, builds credibility. This is political capital which will carry over to longer-term preventive strategies and reforms.

clear; Financial reform; happened; naked capitalism; needed.

Thu 2009-09-17 10:08 EDT

The Next Financial Crisis

Peter Boone, Simon Johnson

Our banks have gotten into the habit of needing to be rescued through repeated bailouts. During this crisis, Bernanke--while saving the financial system in the short term--has done nothing to break this long-term pattern; worse, he exacerbated it. As a result, unless real reform happens soon, we face the prospect of another bubble-bust-bailout cycle that will be even more dangerous than the one we've just been through. ...We have seen this spectacle--the Fed saving us from one crisis only to instigate another--many times before. And, over the past few decades, the problem has become significantly more dire. The fault, to be sure, doesn't lie entirely with the Fed. Bernanke is a prisoner of a financial system with serious built-in flaws. The decisions he made during the recent crisis weren't necessarily the wrong decisions; indeed, they were, in many respects, the decisions he had to make. But these decisions, however necessary in the moment, are almost guaranteed to hurt our economy in the long run--which, in turn, means that more necessary but harmful measures will be needed in the future. It is a debilitating, vicious cycle. And at the center of this cycle is the Fed.

Financial Crisis.

Calculated Risk Mon 2009-09-14 12:05 EDT

A Moment with Minsky

CalculatedRisk

Stephen Mihm at the Boston Globe looks at Hyman Minsky...``Instability,'' Minsky wrote, ``is an inherent and inescapable flaw of capitalism.''

Calculated Risk; Minsky; Moment.

Fri 2007-12-14 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: Mr. Minsky Moment Calls for Rate Cuts

"he best we have is palliatives. We can either take the losses, as the US has repeatedly told third world countries in similar fixes to ours, or we can go the Japan route of socializing the cost of propping up bad businesses and deals, or we can expand the money supply considerably and let inflation eat away at the value of the debt overhang." bearish UBS economist George Magnus calls for rate cuts

Mr. Minsky Moment Calls; naked capitalism; rate CUTS.

Sun 2007-08-26 00:00 EDT

Doctor Housing Bubble Blog: Housing Minsky Moment: 3 Factors. Prime Contagion, Record Foreclosures, and Publicity.

2007-07-26

3-factor; Doctor Housing Bubble Blog; Housing Minsky Moment; Prime Contagion; public; Record Foreclosures.

Mon 2007-07-30 00:00 EDT

RGE - Are We at The Peak of a Minsky Credit Cycle?

Are We at The Peak of a Minsky Credit Cycle? by Nouriel Roubini; Minsky moment; credit bust

Minsky Credit Cycle; peak; RGE.