Mon 2009-10-12 09:24 EDT
The Future Has Always Been Crazier Than We Thought with Nassim Nicholas Taleb.Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses his book, The Black Swan in relation to predicting the future, learning from the consequences of the unknown, and the power of randomness.
zero hedge Sat 2009-10-10 11:57 EDT
...the Federal Reserve has faced two historically unusual constraints on policy. First, the financial crisis, by increasing credit risk spreads and inhibiting normal flows of financing and credit extension, has likely reduced the degree of monetary accommodation associated with any given level of the federal funds rate target, perhaps significantly. Second, since December, the targeted funds rate has been effectively at its zero lower bound (more precisely, in a range between 0 and 25 basis points), eliminating the possibility of further stimulating the economy through cuts in the target rate. To provide additional support to the economy despite these limits on traditional monetary policy, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Board of Governors have taken a number of actions and initiated a series of new programs that have increased the size and changed the composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. I thought it would be useful this evening to review for you the most important elements of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, as well as some aspects of their evolution over time. As you'll see, doing so provides a convenient means of explaining the steps the Federal Reserve has taken, beyond conventional interest rate reductions, to mitigate the financial crisis and the recession, as well as how those actions will be reversed as the economy recovers...
naked capitalism Sun 2009-09-20 11:53 EDT
If you are looking for reform in the financial sector, the moment has passed. And only to the degree that the underlying weaknesses in the global financial system are made manifest and threaten the economy will we see any appetite for reform amongst politicians. So, as I see it, the Obama administration has missed the opportunity for reform...Steve Keen, an Australian economist whose theories are heavily influenced by Hyman Minsky, has a cogent analysis of the true structural deficits in the current economic model...today we have finally reached a level of debt which is so great that another reflation is impossible. The collapse is now....unlike Keen, I am not convinced the time is now...What I would like to see is economic thought leaders developing a blueprint of a financial crisis strategy which tackles both the immediate crisis issues (liquidity) and the structural, regulatory and monetary issues that create financial volatility (solvency). When crisis does occur, I believe it will be systemic in nature due to the forces Keen so lucidly explains. Therefore, a blueprint which is 1) heavy on tactics and, 2) if implemented in a real systemic crisis, is likely to work, builds credibility. This is political capital which will carry over to longer-term preventive strategies and reforms.
clear; Financial reform; happened; naked capitalism; needed.
Minyanville Sat 2009-09-05 11:47 EDT
People have been up in arms for months now about the troubles at the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) the ETF designed to track the price of natural gas. And as far as I can tell rightly so. ETFs were meant to be a nearly frictionless relatively simple alternative to the clunky closed-end funds (CEFs) and managed products that our parents and grandparents had to contend with. But UNG recently traded at a 19% premium to its net asset value (NAV) -- behavior far more fitting a CEF...But since hand-wringing over UNG seems to be the consensus approach, here's a contrarian thought: UNG has, to date, tracked natural gas futures (NG) fairly well.
Bruce Krasting Fri 2009-09-04 19:11 EDT
In the Week in Review section the NY Times had a piece by David Streitfeld titled ``When Debtors Decide to Default''. I thought it was an important story. The NY Times put the issue of Debt Repudiation on the table. Exactly where it belongs. The author also contributed a new adjective to describe many of America's troubled borrowers, ``Ruthless Defaulters''. This definition comes to us from the ``lending'' side of the equation. I think that is a misguided definition by the industry. I don't think they know what they are up against. Yet...Debt repudiation is the biggest systemic risk we face...the default rate on mortgages in excess of $500k is going to explode this fall...the CC numbers would follow. Broad based debt repudiation is a distinct possibility.
zero hedge Thu 2009-09-03 09:59 EDT
With Leucadia coming boldly from behind the shadows, where Ian Cumming and Joe Steinberg have always enjoyed operating, and joining Buffett in a deal over Capmark's loan-servicing and mortgage business, it makes sense to introduce readers with some of the very original thinking of the Leucadia founders (and very close friends of the mellifluously named Dick Handler). We present their most recent annual investor letter, which frequently is cited as among the best hedge fund (even though they don't like to be seen as one) strategy reading material. downloaded pdf.
zero hedge Thu 2009-09-03 09:59 EDT
With Leucadia coming boldly from behind the shadows, where Ian Cumming and Joe Steinberg have always enjoyed operating, and joining Buffett in a deal over Capmark's loan-servicing and mortgage business, it makes sense to introduce readers with some of the very original thinking of the Leucadia founders (and very close friends of the mellifluously named Dick Handler). We present their most recent annual investor letter, which frequently is cited as among the best hedge fund (even though they don't like to be seen as one) strategy reading material. downloaded pdf.
Tue 2009-04-21 00:00 EDT
by Edward Harrison; ``any solution for recapitalization must address future writedowns and loan losses of assets already on the books if it is to be successful''
Banking crisis response; Guest Post; naked capitalism; thought; United States.
Wed 2009-02-11 00:00 EST
Jesse's Café Américain: Some Thoughts on the Debt Disaster in the US and UK and Possible Alternatives
Debt Disaster; Jesse's Café Américain; possible alternative; thought; UK.
Thu 2009-01-15 00:00 EST
Just when you thought things couldn't get any worse, by Mike Whitney | The Smirking Chimp; deflation, market failure, and government bungling
Fri 2008-03-21 00:00 EDT
Winter (Economic & Market) Watch >> The Lender of Only Resort; "the financial sphere will be rapidly downsized, large layoffs spun as bullish, and power and capital more intensely concentrated...if you thought financial markets were rigged and manipulated before, you ain't seen nothing yet."
