Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Mon 2010-09-13 15:53 EDT

Debating the Flat Earth Society about Hyperinflation

Michael Shedlock

Over the past few weeks, many people have asked me to comment on John Hussman's August 23, 2010 post Why Quantitative Easing is Likely to Trigger a Collapse of the U.S. Dollar. Most wanted to know how that article changed my view regarding deflation. It didn't...I was asked about a guest post by Gonzalo Lira on Zero Hedge. I had seen the article and I made an off-the-cuff statement that the post was so silly it was not worth commenting not...Commenting on the above is tantamount to debating the flat earth society. The premise is so silly it's not worth discussing, yet here I am trapped into discussion by a mischaracterization of my statement "Hyperinflation Ends The Game"...The commonality between Zimbabwe and Weimar is they are both political events. In Zimbabwe a political event triggered capital flight, in Weimar a political event started massive printing, triggering hyperinflation...To understand how powerless the Fed is, one needs to understand the difference between credit and money, how much the former dwarfs the latter...Hyperinflation could theoretically come from massive sustained political will to bail out the little guy at the expense of the banks, the wealthy, and the political class. However, unlike Mugabe and Zimbabwe, neither the banks nor the Fed nor the political class wants to bail out the poor at the expense of the wealthy. Indeed, Bernanke's, Paulson's, and Geithner's actions to date have done the exact opposite!...

Debate; Flat Earth Society; Hyperinflation; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Money Game Wed 2010-09-01 10:53 EDT

Why Ben Bernanke's Next Round Of Quantitative Easing Will Be Another Huge Flop

There is perhaps, no greater misunderstanding in the investment world today than the topic of quantitative easing [QE]. After all, it sounds so fancy, strange and complex. But in reality, it is quite a simple operation...The Fed simply electronically swaps an asset with the private sector. In most cases it swaps deposits with an interest bearing asset...The theory behind QE is that the Fed can reduce interest rates via asset purchases (which supposedly creates demand for debt) while also strengthening the bank balance sheet (which entices them to lend). Unfortunately, we've lived thru this scenario before and history shows us that neither is actually true. Banks are never reserve constrained and a private sector that is deeply indebted will not likely be enticed to borrow regardless of the rate of interest...The most glaring example of failed QE is in Japan in 2001. Richard Koo refers to this event as the ``greatest monetary non-event''...Since Ben Bernanke initiated his great monetarist gaffe in 2008 there has been almost no sign of a sustainable private sector recovery. Mr. Bernanke's new form of trickle down economics has surely fixed the banking sector (or at least bought some time), but the recovery ended there. ..The hyperventilating hyperinflationists and those investors calling for inevitable US default are now clinging to this QE story as their inflation or default thesis crumbles before their very eyes...With the government merely swapping assets they are not actually ``printing'' any new money. In fact, the government is now essentially stealing interest bearing assets from the private sector and replacing them with deposits...now that the banks are flush with excess reserves this policy response would in fact be deflationary - not inflationary...

Ben Bernanke's; Huge Flop; Money game; Quantitative Easing.

Credit Writedowns Thu 2010-06-03 17:56 EDT

Guest Post: The 2004 Fed Transcripts: A Methodical, Diabolical Destruction of America's "Wealth"

Frederick Sheehan

The Federal Reserve releases transcripts of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings with a five-year lag (as required by law, the Fed would like to burn them). Transcripts for 2004 meetings were released on April 30, 2010...FOMC transcripts in 2004 confirm the Fed was afraid of markets...The FOMC seemed most concerned that higher rates might interfere with the carry trade. In the sad tale of The Financialization of the United States, the carry trade deserves a chapter...By 2004, the carry trade was a mammoth enterprise of hedge funds and banks. The too-big-to-fail banks were, by now, leveraging their own internally managed hedge funds, managing their own proprietary trading desks, and also lending to highly leveraged hedge funds. Leverage, and, the belief that access to rising levels of credit would never end, pushed up asset values on bank balance sheets -- whether real estate, bonds, stocks, or private-equity. This increased the banks' lending capacity which encouraged banks to lend more...Markets believed asset prices would only go up for many silly reasons. Belief in the Greenspan Put may have been the silliest but also the most influential...Federal Reserve Governor Donald Kohn...told his confreres that Federal Reserve policy was to distort asset prices. He also said this was deliberate and desirable. In other words, distorted asset prices were not an unfortunate consequence of such-and-such Fed policy. The Fed's goal was to distort asset prices...Consumer spending exceeded consumer income...This strategy of fixing asset prices at an artificially high rate to fool the American people into spending money they did not have was diabolical...The manipulation of markets and of the American people has grown worse under Bernanke's chairmanship...

2004 Fed Transcripts; America's; credit writedowns; Diabolical Destruction; Guest Post; Method; wealth.

naked capitalism Wed 2010-01-13 11:54 EST

William Black'' ``Anti-Regulators: The Federal Reserve's War Against Effective Regulation''

...This essay focuses on Chairman Bernanke recent appointment of Dr. Parkinson to lead the Fed's examination and supervision. My central point is that Dr. Bernanke appointed Dr. Parkinson because he shared Dr. Bernanke's anti-regulatory ideology and has never changed those views, even in the face of the Great Recession. The anti-regulator policies that Bernanke and Parkinson championed were the principal drivers of the fraud epidemic that have produced recurrent, intensifying crises...First, Dr. Parkinson was a leading proponent of the obscene (and successful) effort to prevent Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Brooksley Born from taking regulatory action to prevent destructive credit default swaps (CDS). Second, Dr. Parkinson, like Greenspan and Bernanke, subscribed to the naïve view that fraud was impossible in sophisticated financial markets and that credit rating agencies were reliable. Third, Dr. Parkinson endorsed the international ``competition in regulatory laxity'' that Dr. Bernanke (belatedly) warned has degraded regulation on a global basis...

anti regulators; effectively regulated; Federal Reserve's War; naked capitalism; William Black.

Blog entry Tue 2009-10-13 20:30 EDT

Movement To Block Bernanke Gathers Steam

Isaiah J. Poole

The renomination of Ben Bernanke as chairman of the Federal Reserve should not be rubber-stamped by the Senate until Bernanke and the Fed are more transparent and accountable to the public, says a growing coalition of activists roused by Reps. Alan Grayson and Ron Paul, who have asked the Senate to put a hold on Bernanke's nomination...all it takes is for one member of the Senate to object to moving Bernanke's nomination to the floor of the Senate. The tactic of placing a hold on a Senate nomination has been frequently used by Republicans against Obama administration appointees for for less consequential reasons than what is happening with trillions of taxpayer dollars in the name of staving off the next Great Depression. What's unclear is whether a member of Congress will be bold enough to stand up to Wall Street and to what William Greider calls "the temple."

Block Bernanke Gathers Steam; blog entry; movement.

Tue 2009-09-29 11:43 EDT

The Post-Bubble Malaise

Mike Whitney

...the Fed is building excess bank reserves (nearly $1 trillion in the last year alone) with the tacit understanding that the banks will return the favor by purchasing Uncle Sam's sovereign debt. It's all very confusing and circular, in keeping with Bernanke's stated commitment to "transparency". What a laugh. The good news is that the trillions in government paper probably won't increase inflation until the economy begins to improve and the slack in capacity is reduced. Then we can expect to get walloped with hyperinflation. But that could be years off. For the foreseeable future, it's all about deflation...The question is, how long can the Obama administration write checks on an account that's overdrawn by $11 trillion (the national debt) before the foreign appetite for US Treasurys wanes and we have a sovereign debt crisis? If the Fed is faking sales of Treasurys to conceal the damage--as I expect it is--we could see the dollar plunge to $2 per euro by the middle of 2010...The consumer is maxed out, private sector activity is in the tank, and government stimulus is the only thing keeping the economy off the meat-wagon. Bernanke might not admit it, but the economy is sinking into post-bubble malaise.

Post bubble malaise.

The IRA Analyst Tue 2009-06-16 00:00 EDT

The Institutional Risk Analyst: Zombie Update; Pento on Bernanke's Permanently Expanded Balance Sheet

``This zombie dance party ain't over. No sir.'' Michael Pento: ``Bernanke will be hard-pressed to substantially raise rates to combat inflation once consumer and wholesale prices begin to significantly increase.''

Bernanke's Permanently Expanded Balance Sheet; Institutional Risk Analyst; IRA Analyst; Pento; Zombie Update.

Tue 2009-06-16 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Bernanke's Deflation Preventing Scorecard

Bernanke's Deflation Preventing Scorecard; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Tue 2009-04-21 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Bernanke's Grand Experiment Continues

Bernanke has failed, deflation has arrived

Bernanke's Grand Experiment Continues; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Wed 2009-04-01 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Bernanke's Boiled Frog Plan To Recapitalize Banks

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Bernanke's Boiled Frog Plan To Recapitalize Banks

Bernanke's Boiled Frog Plan; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; Recapitalize Banks.

Wed 2009-04-01 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Bernanke's Hide and Seek Delaying Tactics

Bernanke's Hide; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; Seek Delaying Tactics.

Tue 2008-09-02 00:00 EDT

Jesse's Café Américain: Bernanke's Strategy: Painting the Roses Red.

Jesse's Café Américain: Bernanke's Strategy: Painting the Roses Red.

Bernanke's Strategy; Jesse's Café Américain; paint; Roses Red.

Fri 2008-06-06 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Fed Governors Openly Question Bernanke's Competence

Jeffrey Lacker; Charles Plosser

Fed Governors Openly Question Bernanke's Competence; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Fri 2008-03-21 00:00 EDT

Bernanke's Surprise by Gary North

Bernanke's Surprise, by Gary North; deflation; 2008-02-23

Bernanke's surprise; Gary North.

Fri 2008-02-22 00:00 EST

Between The Lines > Inside Bernanke's Brain - The Fed's Response To The Crisis

Between The Lines > Inside Bernanke's Brain - The Fed's Response To The Crisis, by Aaron Krowne; "Fed doesnt actually control rates, at least not directly. It only sets a TARGET"; "in times of great distress (as now), the rates can get away from the Feds grasp, and it becomes important to distinguish. Specifically, if the Fed were to try to force the funds rate up to the 4.5% target while they were naturally trading around 3%, they would actually have to WITHDRAW liquidity from the system, causing a catastrophic deflationary spiral."

Bernanke's Brain; Crisis; Fed's responsibilities; lines.

Thu 2007-09-20 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Bernanke's Bullet Misses The Mark

Bernanke's Bullet Misses; marked; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.