Jesse's Café Américain Wed 2010-09-29 09:13 EDT

Slouching Towards Bethlehem: Double Dip or Banana Split?

Jesse

NBER: "If the 2010 contraction we are now monitoring in consumer demand for discretionary durable goods scales to the full economy as faithfully as the "Great Recession" did, the second dip will, at minimum, be 33% more painful than the first dip and will extend at least half again as long." This is the case for trouble dead ahead, a worse decline in consumer activity and therefore GDP than the first, and the likelihood of further quantitative easing from the US Federal Reserve to patch over the inability of the political process to reform the financial system and balance the real economy because of their myriad conflicts of interest. These policy errors favoring a small minority will most likely result in a stagflation of the most pernicious and corrosive kind, high unemployment and a rising price of essentials, that may ultimately test the fabric of society...

Banana Splits; Bethlehem; double dip; Jesse's Café Américain; Slouching.

Mon 2010-08-16 13:54 EDT

Could The US Become Another Ireland? >> The Baseline Scenario

Peter Boone and Simon Johnson

As Greece acts in an intransigent manner, refusing to act decisively despite deep fiscal difficulties, the financial markets look on Ireland all the more favorably. Ireland is seen as the poster child for prudent fiscal adjustment among the weaker eurozone countries...Ireland's perceived ``success'' is partly due to its draconian fiscal cuts...Ireland's difficulties arose because of a massive property boom financed by cheap credit from Irish banks...Today roughly 1/3 of the loans on the balance sheets of banks are non-performing or ``under surveillance''...The government...guaranteed all the liabilities of banks and then began injecting government funds...it is planning to buy the most worthless assets from banks and pay them government bonds in return. Ministers have also promised to recapitalize banks than need more capital. The ultimate result of this exercise is obvious: one way or another, the government will have converted the liabilities of private banks into debts of the sovereign (i.e., Irish taxpayers)...The government is gambling that GDP growth will recover to over 4% per year starting 2012 -- and they still plan further major expenditure cutting and revenue increasing measures each year until 2013...The latest round of bank bailouts (swapping bad debts for government bonds) dramatically exacerbates the fiscal problem...

Baseline Scenario; Becomes; Ireland.

Tue 2010-08-03 17:01 EDT

The Conservative Nanny State: How the Wealthy Use the Government to Stay Rich and Get Richer

Dean Baker, published May 2006

...economist Dean Baker debunks the myth that conservatives favor the market over government intervention. In fact, conservatives rely on a range of ``nanny state'' policies that ensure the rich get richer while leaving most Americans worse off. It's time for the rules to change. Sound economic policy should harness the market in ways that produce desirable social outcomes -- decent wages, good jobs and affordable health care...

Conservative Nanny State; government; richer; stay rich; wealthy used.

Thu 2010-07-22 10:39 EDT

A Dual Mandate for the Federal Reserve, The Pursuit of Price Stability and Full Employment

Willem Thorbecke (2000)

Federal Reserve currently has two legislated goals--price stability and full employment--but a debate continues about making price stability the Fed's primary and overriding goal. Evidence from the recent history of monetary policy contradicts arguments in favor of assigning primacy to inflation fighting and supports giving full employment equal importance. Economic performance under the dual mandate has been excellent, with low unemployment and low inflation, while many European countries whose central banks focus solely on inflation are experiencing double-digit unemployment. The costs of unemployment are high, but the costs of even moderate inflation are estimated to be low. Central bankers, who tend to be inflation-averse, need to be prodded to consider goals other than inflation. And, if the Fed pursues price stability exclusively, the price level is not free to increase in the event of an adverse supply shock to prevent large increases in unemployment. A dual mandate allows the Fed to focus on one goal or the other as conditions demand and to balance policy effects.

dual mandate; Federal Reserve; full employment; priced stabilize; pursuit.

The Money Game Sat 2010-05-22 21:47 EDT

The Root Cause Of Recurring Global Financial Crises

Henry Liu

Severe global financial crises have been recurring every decade: the 1987 crash, the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 2007 Credit Crisis. This recurring pattern had been generated by wholesale financial deregulation around the world. But the root causes have been dollar hegemony and the Washington Consensus. -- The Case of Greece --Following misguided neo-liberal market fundamentalist advice, Greece abandoned its national currency, the drachma, in favor of the euro in 2002. This critically consequential move enabled the Greek government to benefit from the strength of the euro, albeit not derived exclusively from the strength of the Greek economy, but from the strength of the economies of the stronger Eurozone member states, to borrow at lower interest rates collateralized by Greek assets denominated in euros. With newly available credit, Greece then went on a debt-funded spending spree, including high-profile projects such as the 2004 Athens Olympics that left the Greek nation with high sovereign debts not denominated in its national currency...

Money game; Recurring Global Financial Crises; root cause.

Sun 2010-05-09 09:18 EDT

Why Do Senators Corker And Dodd Really Think We Need Big Banks? >> The Baseline Scenario

Simon Johnson

On Friday, Senator Bob Corker (R, TN) took to the Senate floor to rebut critics of big banks. His language was not entirely senatorial: ``I hope we'll all come to our senses'', while listing the reasons we need big banks. And Senator Chris Dodd (D, CT) rose to agree that (in Corker's words) reducing the size of our largest banks would be ``cutting our nose off to spite our face'' and that by taking on Wall Street, ``we may be taking on the heartland.'' Unfortunately, all of their arguments in favor of our largest banks remaining at or near (or above) their current scale are completely at odds with the facts (e.g., as documented in our book, 13 Bankers). ...As for why exactly Senators Corker and Dodd really support big banks, it seems increasingly likely that this is all about campaign contributions.

Baseline Scenario; Dodd Really Think; Needs Big Banks; Senator Corker.

naked capitalism Wed 2010-04-07 19:38 EDT

Have Bloggers ``Won''? And Is That a Bad Thing?

...[MSM difficulties] Richard Kline: ...Most of the MSM is owned by large corporations which abhor any serious questioning of the status quo. Most of the MSM decided a generation ago to pitch their product at the soft middle of the demographic curve; that's `dumb down' to those ow you who need a scorecard. Most of the MSM went to recent journalism school and bought into the idea of false `balancing' which has castrated their editorial opinion in favor of whoever is driving debate by telling the latest Big Lie. Then there is the problem of self-interested 'sources,' hardly new, and manageable when journalists were allowed to have an opinion themselves, but deleterious when they are supposed to be `neutral,' i.e. readily maniplulatible. Then there is the issue that too many journalists have decided to become propagandists for the status quo of the moment, making their reportage the worst kind of bandwagon swillage. Then too, MSM has responded, or rather _not_ responded to the emergence of new kinds of media spreading current information reportage: just when the MSM needs established `quality brand' to fall back on they find that they gutted the brand to fellate large shareholders and the interests of the same.

bad things; bloggers; naked capitalism; won.

naked capitalism Sat 2010-04-03 09:55 EDT

Guest Post: Top Analyst Says ``Developed Market Governments Are Insolvent By Any Reasonable Definition''

Washington's Blog

Dylan Grice, a top analyst for European financial giant Société Générale, writes: Developed market governments are insolvent by any reasonable definition. Who could have known? Everyone, actually...Grice also says: Eventually, there will be a crisis of such magnitude that the political winds change direction, and become blustering gales forcing us onto the course of fiscal sustainability. Until it does, the temptation to inflate will remain, as will economists with spurious mathematical rationalisations as to why such inflation will make everything OK . Until it does, the outlook will remain favorable for gold. But eventually, majority opinion will accept the painful contractionary medicine because it will have to. That will be the time to sell gold.

developed market governments; Guest Post; insolvent; naked capitalism; reasonable definition; Top Analyst Says.

Wed 2010-02-24 08:49 EST

What the PBoC cannot do with its reserves

Michael Pettis

...Revaluing the RMB, in other words, is important and significant because it represents a shift of wealth largely from the PBoC, exporters, and Chinese residents who have stashed away a lot of wealth in a foreign bank, in favor of the rest of the country. Since much of this shift of wealth benefits households at the expense of the state and manufacturers, one of the automatic consequence of a revaluation will be an increase in household wealth and, with it, household consumption. This is why revaluation is part of the rebalancing strategy -- it shifts income to households and so increases household consumption. So a revaluation has important balance sheet impacts on entities within China, and to a much lesser extent, on some entities outside China. But since it merely represents a distribution of wealth within China should we care about the PBoC losses or can we ignore them? Unfortunately we cannot ignore them and might have to worry about the PBoC losses because, once again, of balance sheet impacts. The PBoC runs a mismatched balance sheet, and as a consequence every 10% revaluation in the RMB will cause the PBoC's net indebtedness to rise by about 7-8% of GDP. This ultimately becomes an increase in total government debt, and of course the more dollars the PBoC accumulates, the greater this loss. (Some readers will note that if government debt levels are already too high, an increase in government debt will sharply increase future government claims on household income, thus reducing the future rebalancing impact of a revaluation, and they are right, which indicates how complex and difficult rebalancing might be). In that sense it is not whether or not China as a whole loses or gains from a revaluation that can be measured by looking at the reserves, and I would argue that it gains, but how the losses are distributed and what further balance sheet impacts that might have.

PBoC cannot; reserves.

Jesse's Café Américain Tue 2010-01-05 19:05 EST

Is the US Goverment Preparing the Lifeboats for the Next Financial Disaster?

Jesse

The fraud and mispricing of risk in the US financial system has become pervasive and epidemic, such that a good stiff headwind could have taken it all down, and because of a lack of serious reform, still can. Rather than fixing potential causes of the next disaster, the Obama Administration seems content to block the escape routes and issue priority passes to the big Wall Street banks and a favored few...The only constraint on the Fed's printing money is the acceptability (marginal value) of the Bond and the dollar, which is the bond of zero duration. And the people making the decisions about printing and distributing those dollars are more unworthy of holding such power than you might imagine, even in your lowest expectations.

financial disaster; Goverment Preparing; Jesse's Café Américain; lifeboat.

naked capitalism Mon 2009-12-28 17:34 EST

Has Obama been a success despite suspicions of crony capitalism?

Edward Harrison

...There is a rather large body of evidence demonstrating that the Bush and Obama Administrations have favored large banks in an unseemly way. The same is true for the Congress and other big business insiders like Big Pharma, the Defense Industry and Health Insurance companies...we have witnessed an orchestrated campaign by the Bush and Obama Administrations to recapitalize too big to fail institutions by hook or by crook, bypassing Congressional approval if necessary. And when it comes to healthcare, both Congress and the White House have bent over backwards to keep the lobbyists onside. As I see it, our government has favored special interests in the past year of Obama's tenure to our detriment. Personally, I don't buy the line that Obama is a liberal. I consider him more a corporatist (i.e someone who coddles big business). But, from a political perspective, it's not really relevant, is it? What difference does it make whether President Obama is a liberal sellout as Matt Taibbi claims or a pragmatic corporatist, if the outcome for the electorate is largely the same? Forget about intent. Focus on actions.

Crony Capitalism; naked capitalism; Obama; Success; suspicion.

naked capitalism Mon 2009-12-28 14:50 EST

A look back at the debate on the role of monetary and fiscal stimulus in depression

Edward Harrison

...regarding stimulus and the role of government in a debt-deflationary environment...does fiscal or monetary stimulus work?...the real debate about whether or not to try fiscal stimulus revolves around the role of government and its limitations. Ideologues on one side see government as a parasite which interferes with the free market. On the other side, ideologues see government as the only way out of a crisis of this magnitude. The key sticking point is not just the size of government, but also its effectiveness -- the political will to effect change rather than to favor constituents...So, how has this worked out in practice? Not so well.

Debate; Depression; fiscal stimulus; looking; Monetary; naked capitalism; role.

Jesse's Café Américain Tue 2009-12-01 22:16 EST

Draining the Swamp: The Fed's Tri Party Repo Machine

Jesse

A triparty repo transaction is a transaction among three parties: a cash lender acting on behalf of all holders of dollars (the Fed), a borrower that will provide collateral (dodgy debt holder in shaky financial condition), and a clearing bank, most likely a primary dealer like J.P. Morgan, which is only too happy to collect its fees as an agent of the Fed... This is the method of obtaining toxic assets from the books of non-primary dealers, and providing stability and liquidity from the aggregate value of all dollar holders to cover the misdeeds of diverse financial institutions and other favored parties. In other words, the Fed is draining the financial debt swamp and toxic waste dumps into your basement, if you hold Federal Reserve Notes.

drain; Fed's Tri Party Repo Machine; Jesse's Café Américain; swamping.

naked capitalism Thu 2009-11-19 10:41 EST

Fed Authorized 100% Payout by AIG on CDS

It had generally been assumed that the AIG payouts of 100% on credit swaps (when the insurer was under water and bankrupt companies do not satisfy their obligations in full) was the result of some gap in oversight plus traders at AIG exercising discretion (they were unhappy about bonus rows and had reason to curry favor with dealers, who were potential employers). The article makes clear that AIG had been negotiating to settle on the swaps prior to getting aid from the government, and was seeking a 40% discount. The Fed might not have gotten that much of a discount, but there was clearly no need to pay out at par. This massive backdoor subsidy to the likes of Goldman, DeutscheBank was authorized by Geithner while he was at the New York Fed.

AIG; CDS; Fed Authorized 100; naked capitalism; payout.

Jesse's Café Américain Tue 2009-11-03 19:36 EST

Obama's Economic Policy Has Doomed the US to Stagnation - Or Worse

Jesse

This was the very moment of Obama's failure, when he allowed Summers, Geithner and Bernanke to establish the principle of "Too Big To Fail" and set up a financial oligarchy at the expense of taxpayers. We would have expected this out of the Treasury under Hank Paulson, but to see this kind of policy error favoring Wall Street over the US taxpayers from a government elected on the promise of reform is inexcusable, a disgrace. ...(Bloomberg) Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said the world's biggest economy is suffering because of the U.S. government's failure to nationalize banks during the financial crisis.

doomed; Jesse's Café Américain; Obama s economic policy; stagnated; worse.

Tue 2009-09-29 11:43 EDT

The Post-Bubble Malaise

Mike Whitney

...the Fed is building excess bank reserves (nearly $1 trillion in the last year alone) with the tacit understanding that the banks will return the favor by purchasing Uncle Sam's sovereign debt. It's all very confusing and circular, in keeping with Bernanke's stated commitment to "transparency". What a laugh. The good news is that the trillions in government paper probably won't increase inflation until the economy begins to improve and the slack in capacity is reduced. Then we can expect to get walloped with hyperinflation. But that could be years off. For the foreseeable future, it's all about deflation...The question is, how long can the Obama administration write checks on an account that's overdrawn by $11 trillion (the national debt) before the foreign appetite for US Treasurys wanes and we have a sovereign debt crisis? If the Fed is faking sales of Treasurys to conceal the damage--as I expect it is--we could see the dollar plunge to $2 per euro by the middle of 2010...The consumer is maxed out, private sector activity is in the tank, and government stimulus is the only thing keeping the economy off the meat-wagon. Bernanke might not admit it, but the economy is sinking into post-bubble malaise.

Post bubble malaise.

Tue 2009-06-16 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Stress Tests Favor Big Trading Firms Over Regional Players

naked capitalism; regional players; Stress Tests Favor Big Trading Firms.

Tue 2009-06-16 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Guest Post: 3/5ths of Oversight Panel Favor Japanese Solution

3 5ths; Guest Post; naked capitalism; Oversight Panel Favor Japanese Solution.

Tue 2009-04-21 00:00 EDT

Jesse's Café Américain: FASB to Make Dramatically Favorable Changes in Mark to Market Rules

Jesse's Café Américain: FASB to Make Dramatically Favorable Changes in Mark to Market Rules

FASB; Jesse's Café Américain; Make Dramatically Favorable Changes; marked; markets rules.

Wed 2009-04-01 00:00 EDT

Jesse's Café Américain: Most Chinese Economists Favor Gold Over US Treasuries for Their National Reserves

Jesse's Café Américain: Most Chinese Economists Favor Gold Over US Treasuries for Their National Reserves

Chinese Economists Favor Gold; Jesse's Café Américain; national reserve; Treasury.

Wed 2009-02-11 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: WTI Crude Index Losing Favor Due to Worries About Distortion

distorts; naked capitalism; Worries; WTI Crude Index Losing Favor.

Wed 2008-05-28 00:00 EDT

Economist's View: "The Predator State: How Conservatives Abandoned the Free Market and Why Liberals Should Too"

review of Jamie Galbraith's "The Predator State" by L. Randall Wray; "market solutions are designed to enrich a favored oligarchy through a spoils system administered through the states structure"

Conservatives Abandoned; Economist's View; free market; liberalism; Predator state.

Mon 2008-05-19 00:00 EDT

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Poor Fundamentals with Borderline Market Action - May 19, 2008

appeasement defined; 2003 arguments against war, in favor of diplomacy

19; 2008; Borderline Market Action; Hussman Funds; poor fundamentals; weekly market comments.

Wed 2007-12-19 00:00 EST

LA Weekly

- Matt Taibbi on How the U.S. Is Like Ike Turner - The Essential Online Resource for Los Angeles; "you don't see...the money process that goes on behind the scenes"; "The people in our government are so corrupt and so interested in doing favors that they cant even respond to an emergency anymore, like Katrina or like Iraq." [or credit implosion]

LA Weekly.

Fri 2007-12-07 00:00 EST

Bear In Mind > The Big Rate Freeze: Good or bad for MBS?

Bear In Mind > The Big Rate Freeze: Good or bad for MBS? traditional NPV analysis modification versus foreclosure to be disregarded in favor of fast track loan modifications

bad; Bear; Big Rate Freeze; good; MBS; mind.

Thu 2007-11-01 00:00 EDT

blackagendareport.com

- The Handwriting is On the Wall: It's a Clinton-Obama Ticket in 08, by Bruce Dixon; "For Democratic and Republican wings of America's permanent ruling party, the all-important selection which precedes the election isn't about poll numbers, votes or the citizens that cast them. It's about winning the favor of military contractors, the banking and financial sectors and Big Oil. It's about reassuring insurance and pharmaceutical companies, cozying up to agribusiness, the cable and telecom monopolies, allaying the fears of chambers of commerce, and wooing Hollywood."

blackagendareport; com.