Credit Writedowns Fri 2009-10-23 09:00 EDT

The next crisis is already under way

Wolfgang Munchau of the Financial Times wrote a very important comment piece in today's Financial Times. In it he said that central banks are targeting asset prices to avoid the brunt of cyclical downturns. This policy is inducing asset bubbles and creating a more volatile real economy with unpredictable negative consequences...Munchau invokes Hyman Minsky's model of financial instability to help explain how this sets us up for a volatile future because traditional macroeconomic theory is inadequate for understanding what got us to this point. In essence, the idyllic state of economic and price stability we know as ``the Great Moderation'' is really just a financialization of the economy. However, a large financial sector leads to excessive dependence on asset prices to fuel growth, which in turn leads to an accumulation of debt...

credit writedowns; Crisis; way.

naked capitalism Thu 2009-10-15 17:12 EDT

Hyperinflation, national bankruptcy, dollar crash and other exaggerations

Edward Harrison

Marc Faber, Martin Wolf... George Soros' comments on dollar weakness: ``The dollar is a very weak currency except all the others.'' Right now, there is no alternative to the dollar. Some people are fleeing U.S. assets if they can. But the alternatives are limited and this limits how far the dollar will fall. And this is unfortunate because the monetary system now in place is in need of change. Without it, we are likely to see nationalistic policy responses to economic weakness, which will induce conflict.

dollar crash; exaggerated; Hyperinflation; naked capitalism; nationalized bankruptcy.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Mon 2009-10-12 09:22 EDT

One Hand Clapping Theory Analyzed

Michael Shedlock

Numerous people have asked me to comment on Chris Martenson's article The Sound of One Hand Clapping - What Deflationists May Be Missing. Chris Writes: ...``Trillions in probable and provable losses quietly exist, out of sight, on the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve and other financial institutions. If they ever come out of hiding and onto the books, I think the deflationists will be proven correct beyond all doubt. But let me ask this: What prevents the authorities from simply storing them out of sight forever?...I am now wondering if they cannot keep this up indefinitely.'' ...In a credit based economy, the odds of a sustainable rebound without bank credit expanding, and consumers participating is not very good. Even if one mistakenly assumes that the recent rally is a result of pretending, should we count on sustained success now more so than a measurement of stock prices in April of 1930, or any of Japans' four 50% rallies? I think not. Pretending cannot accomplish much other than prolonging the agony for decades. This is the message of Japan. Moreover, the US is arguably is worse shape than Japan because our problems are unsustainable consumer debt, high unemployment, and massive retail sector overcapacity. Those are structural problems that no amount of pretending in the world can possibly cure. In due time, the market will focus on those problems.

hand clapping theory analyzed; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Ambrose EvansPritchard Finance and business comments Thu 2009-10-08 17:07 EDT

China calls time on dollar hegemony

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

You can date the end of dollar hegemony from China's decision last month to sell its first batch of sovereign bonds in Chinese yuan to foreigners. Beijing does not need to raise money abroad since it has $2 trillion (£1.26 trillion) in reserves. The sole purpose is to prepare the way for the emergence of the yuan as a full-fledged global currency. [dollar losing reserve status]

Ambrose EvansPritchard Finance; Business Comment; China calls time; dollar hegemony.

Minyanville Sun 2009-09-20 11:17 EDT

Our Marionette Economy

This morning in the Wall Street Journal Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf is quoted saying ``If it's not a government program it's basically not getting done.'' While Stumpf's comment was targeted to the mortgage market and associated with a plea for Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) to raise their size limits so as to be able to pick up more jumbo mortgages I believe he nailed the current state of our economy: ``If it's not a government program it's basically not getting done.''...But to me, there's a fundamental flaw to the notion that the government can create a sustainable economic recovery...I kept coming back to a comment from Bennet Sedacca: ``They (the government) can make 'em bounce, but they can't make 'em fly.''

Marionette Economy; Minyanville.

naked capitalism Thu 2009-09-17 09:46 EDT

``How China Cooks Its Books''

We've commented from time to time on dubious Chinese data releases. But this report from Foreign Policy reports on an interest aspect: that the statistics are not manipulated only in the normal bureaucratic manner (fudging them) but also by getting companies to change behavior so it can be tallied in a more flattering fashion....unemployment is likely 40 to 50 million, as opposed to the widely reported 20 to 30 million; the statistical manipulations are a surprisingly broad-based initiative.

books; China Cooks; naked capitalism.

naked capitalism Mon 2009-09-14 14:51 EDT

Guest Post: Sarkozy, Stiglitz & capitalism's inherent contradictions

Swedish Lex, an expert and advisor on EU regulatory and political affairs

The French Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress presented its final Report written by Stiglitz and other leading economists at an event at la Sorbonne earlier today. The contents of Report is already being discussed widely but at least as relevant are the politics surrounding the Commission's Report and how France intends to use it to spearhead economic reform at home and abroad. This post provides a few comments on Sarkozy's speech.

capitalism's inherent contradictions; Guest Post; naked capitalism; Sarkozy; Stiglitz.

naked capitalism Sun 2009-09-13 15:35 EDT

Is economic boom around the corner?

Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns

...growth underpinned by high debt accumulation and low savings can continue for a very, very long time. In the United States, by virtue of America's possession of the world's reserve currency, an increase in aggregate debt levels has been successfully financed for well over twenty-five years...it is wholly conceivable that we could experience a multi-year economic expansion on the back of renewed monetary and fiscal expansion...Marc Faber: ``Don't underestimate the power of printing money''...but NDK continues to ``disrespect the power of printing money. There are few transmission mechanisms to get that printed money into the real economy.'' pebird comments (paraphrasing Faber?): The US (and Europe) per capita wealth must be driven down to a global benchmark - that is what globalization means. Which is easier - bringing 800 million Chinese plus 500 million Indian workers up to Western standards or 400 million Western workers down to global standards?

corner; economic boom; naked capitalism.

naked capitalism Sun 2009-09-13 13:59 EDT

Why Economists Rarely Say Bad Things About the Fed

The Federal Reserve, through its extensive network of consultants, visiting scholars, alumni and staff economists, so thoroughly dominates the field of economics that real criticism of the central bank has become a career liability for members of the profession, an investigation by the Huffington Post has found...DownSouth comments ``The collusion between state and academe is the post-Enlightenment version of the old alliance that existed between church and state in the Ancien Régime. Academe currently fulfills the same function that the church did before, and that is to give the state the imprimatur of moral and intellectual legitimacy.''

Economists Rarely Say Bad Things; Fed; naked capitalism.

naked capitalism Tue 2009-09-01 13:10 EDT

Twenty-Five Years to Work Off the Debt Overhang?

T. S. Eliot was right. Human beings cannot stand very much reality. As much as I have an appetite for bearish views (I figure the optimist case gets disproportionate air time), the headline of Ambrose Evans-Pritchard's latest piece, ``Our quarter-century penance is just starting,'' is grim even by the standards of the bearish faithful. Great comment by DownSouth, quoting Martin Luther King and Reinhold Niebuhr to the effect that by delegating to elites what should be the role of labor unions and grass-roots organizations. Niebuhr wrote: ``when collective power, whether in the form of imperialism or class domination, exploits weakness, it can never be dislodged unless power is raised against it'' ``Before we can fix the economy, the polity must be repaired first.''

debt overhang; naked capitalism; working; years.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Wed 2009-08-26 15:55 EDT

Emails from a Bank Owner regarding FDIC and Under-Capitalized Banks

Michael Shedlock

Here is an interesting Email from a Bank Owner and CEO regarding As of Friday August 14, 2009, FDIC is Bankrupt. ``I have been in banking for over 30 years and from my perspective this is much worse than anything I have seen.'' ABO, who as been in the business 30 years, writes: A comment concerning the FDIC - As of June 30 the rates being charged banks have increased substantially. Risk 1 category went to 12 basis points from 5, risk 2, 17 basis points, risk 3, 35 basis points, and risk 5, 50 basis points. Additionally, a 5 basis point special assessment is being charged on September 30 on total assets less tier 1 capital. It is probable that a second assessment will also be charged in December. The cost of FDIC insurance for a two hundred million dollar, 1 risk rated bank last year would have been around...

bank owner; capitalized banks; Email; FDIC; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

ClubOrlov Wed 2009-08-26 14:22 EDT

That Bastion of American Socialism...the United States military

kollapsnik

Over the past few months the American mainstream chatter has experienced a sudden spike in the gratuitous use of the term "Socialist." It was prompted by the attempts of the federal government to resuscitate insolvent financial institutions. These attempts included offers of guarantees to their clients, injections of large sums of borrowed public money, and granting them access to almost-free credit that was magically summoned ex nihilo by the Federal Reserve. To some observers, these attempts looked like an emergency nationalization of the finance sector was underway, prompting them to cry "Socialism!" Their cries were not as strident as one would expect, bereft of the usual disdain that normally accompanies the use of this term. Rather, it was proffered with a wan smile, because the commentators could find nothing... ``Since the end of the Civil War, Americans have become accustomed to thinking of war as something that happens elsewhere, to other people. Thus, the news that the US is bombing this or that land, for no adequate reason, killing and maiming numerous civilians, produces in us neither the normal human reaction of revulsion, nausea and disgust, nor the conviction that we must take the fight to our own monstrous leaders, lest we too become monsters. Life under domestic military occupation might bring home some welcome realizations, and start Americans down the long road of atoning for the sins of their forefathers, who have run roughshod over much of the rest of the planet for far too long.''

American social; bastion; ClubOrlov; United States military.

Thu 2009-07-30 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Thought Police II: Media Airbrushing (Including Removal of Article With Negative Comments on TARP)

article; Media Airbrushing; naked capitalism; negative comments; remove; TARP; Thought Police II.

Thu 2009-05-07 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Goldman: Global Oil Storage Capacity Could Be Filled by June

commenter Hugh: ``Oil in the short term was way overpriced (excess speculation) and in the long term absurdly underpriced (peak oil)''

fill; Global Oil Storage Capacity; Goldman; June; naked capitalism.

Thu 2009-04-30 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Links 4/17/09

Richard Kline comments on Janet Yellen's asset price bubble remarks

Links 4/17/09; naked capitalism.

Tue 2009-04-21 00:00 EDT

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Wishful Thinking - April 20, 2009

``The current bounce was fueled by a combination of deteriorating but less bad than expected economic reports (therefore counting as upside surprises), as well as what can only be considered misleading and semi-fraudulent earnings reports from distressed financial companies''

2009; April 20; Hussman Funds; weekly market comments; wished think.