Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Tue 2010-06-01 19:42 EDT

FHA Volume Sign of `Very Sick System'; Fannie, Freddie, FHA Account for 90% of Mortgage Market

Michael Shedlock

The US mortgage market is extremely sick and getting sicker every month. For the first time ever, the FHA is issuing more mortgages than Fannie and Freddie. The reason is the FHA has lower down payments...Recovery my ass.

90; Fannie; FHA accounts; FHA Volume Sign; Freddie; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; mortgage markets; Sick System.

Dr. Housing Bubble Blog Sun 2010-05-16 15:17 EDT

Housing never really improved -- 10 charts showing the United States housing market is entering the second wave of problems. 1 out of 4 people with no mortgage payment in the last year are still not in the foreclosure process.

To put it bluntly, the U.S. housing market today is in deep water. Nothing exemplifies the transfer of risk to the public from the private investment banks more than the deep losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fannie Mae announced a stunning first quarter loss of $13.1 billion while Freddie Mac lost $8 billion. At the same time, toxic mortgage superstar JP Morgan Chase announced a $3.3 billion profit for Q1. This reversal of fortunes has been orchestrated perfectly by Wall Street. Since the toxic assets were never marked to market, the big losses have been funneled to the big GSEs (and as we will show in this article, now makes up 96.5 percent of the entire mortgage market). In other words, banks are making profits gambling on Wall Street while pushing out mortgages that are completely backed by the government...

1; 10 Charts Showing; 4 people; Dr. Housing Bubble Blog; enters; Foreclosures process; Housing; mortgage payments; problem; really improving; United States housing market; wave; years.

Calculated Risk Thu 2010-05-06 13:59 EDT

96.5% of Mortgages Backed by Government entities in Q1

CalculatedRisk

...Government-related entities backed 96.5% of all home loans during the first quarter, up from 90% in 2009, according to Inside Mortgage Finance...The government-sponsored enterprises--Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae--now own or guarantee an overwhelming share of originations. At the same time, non-agency mortgage securitization and loans retained in lender portfolios have largely dried up...Without the government backed entities there would be almost no mortgage market.

5; 96; Calculated Risk; government entity; Mortgage Backed; Q1.

THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST Wed 2010-02-10 11:22 EST

AN INSIDER'S VIEW OF THE REAL ESTATE TRAIN WRECK

TPC

The first time I spoke with real estate entrepreneur Andy Miller was in late 2007, when I asked him to serve on the faculty of a Casey Research Summit...what most intrigued me about Andy was that he had been almost alone among his peer group in foreseeing the coming end of the real estate bubble, and in liquidating essentially all of his considerable portfolio of projects near the top...he remains deeply concerned about the outlook for real estate...the United States home mortgage market has been nationalized without anybody noticing...If government support goes away, and it will go away, where will that leave the home market? It leaves you with a catastrophe...eventually the bond market is going to gag on the government-sponsored paper...commercial properties are not performing and that values have gone down, although I've got to tell you, the denial is still widespread, particularly in the United States and on the part of lenders sitting on and servicing all these real estate portfolios...The current volume of defaults is already alarming. And the volume of commercial real estate defaults is growing every month...When you hit that breaking point, unless there's some alternative in place, it's going to be a very hideous picture for the bond market and the banking system...second quarter 2010 is a guess...the FDIC and the Treasury Department have decided that rather than see 1,000 or 2,000 banks go under and then create another RTC to sift through all the bad assets, they'll let the banking system warehouse the bad assets. Their plan is to leave the assets in place, and then, when the market changes, let the banks deal with them. Now, that's horribly destructive...it's exactly a Japanese-style solution...The entire U.S. residential mortgage market has in effect been nationalized, but there wasn't any act of Congress, no screaming and shouting, no headlines in the Wall Street Journal or the New York Times...That's a template for what they could do with the commercial loan market.

insider's view; pragmatic capitalists; Real Estate Train Wreck.

The Economic Populist - Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time Sun 2010-02-07 18:20 EST

Is Residential Real Estate a Ticking Time Bomb?

...First is the latest SIGTARP report saying the Government has become the mortgage market with U.S. taxpayers shouldering the risk. From the SIGTARP report we have a 100% government mortgage market at this point...Fannie and Freddie now have an unlimited bailout and it is estimated they have lost $400 billion dollars. The plan is to purchase $1.25 trillion mortgage backed securities from these two GSEs until the end of March...The number of homeowners who are strategically walking away from their mortgages is up to 10% this year...All of the above free money, the government pouring in trillions of dollars to prop up the housing market. Yet while price declines have slowed, prices are still declining and the above simply cannot go on forever. In fact one thing isn't going on forever. The Fed will stop buying MBSes at the end of March, 2010. So, when our government created illusion does pop, do we then have the real housing bubble implosion?

economic populist; Mind 2 Cents; residential real estate; speaking; ticking time bomb; Time.

naked capitalism Mon 2009-12-28 16:40 EST

Will Continued Stealth Bailout of Housing Produce Unwanted Side Effects?

The Treasury Department...considerably increased its Freddie and Fannie safety net, by removing all limits on the amounts on offer (an increase from a ceiling of $400 billion) and simultaneously allowing the two GSEs to increase their balance sheets near term. Previously, they had been required to shrink their portfolios by 10% per annum; now it is their ceiling which will be lowered by 10% a year, and that ceiling is much higher than their current exposures ($900 billion versus roughly $760 billion for Freddie and $770 billion for Fannie as of the end of November)...So one has to conclude that the agencies might well (ahem, are likely to) throw their firepower behind the ``prop up the mortgage market'' program, particularly with Obama's ratings plunging and mid-term elections coming this year. But if this comes to pass, what might the collateral damage be?

Continued Stealth Bailout; Housing Produce Unwanted Side Effects; naked capitalism.

Minyanville Sun 2009-09-20 11:17 EDT

Our Marionette Economy

This morning in the Wall Street Journal Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf is quoted saying ``If it's not a government program it's basically not getting done.'' While Stumpf's comment was targeted to the mortgage market and associated with a plea for Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) to raise their size limits so as to be able to pick up more jumbo mortgages I believe he nailed the current state of our economy: ``If it's not a government program it's basically not getting done.''...But to me, there's a fundamental flaw to the notion that the government can create a sustainable economic recovery...I kept coming back to a comment from Bennet Sedacca: ``They (the government) can make 'em bounce, but they can't make 'em fly.''

Marionette Economy; Minyanville.

Tue 2009-06-16 00:00 EDT

A Game of Credit Cost Smoke and Mirrors at Wells Fargo? : HousingWire || financial news for the mortgage market

Credit Cost Smoke; financial News; game; HousingWire; mirror; mortgage markets; Wells Fargo.

Wed 2009-04-01 00:00 EDT

The Institutional Risk Analyst: Can We Fix the Banks, Help Homeowners, and Rebuild the Mortgage Markets? Can Do.

Can We Fix the Banks, Help Homeowners, and Rebuild the Securitization Markets? No Problema

bank; Fix; help homeowners; Institutional Risk Analyst; mortgage markets; Rebuilding.

Sun 2008-11-23 00:00 EST

Jesse's Café Américain: What Happened When They Pulled the TARP Out from Under the Mortgage Asset Markets?

Jesse's Café Américain: What Happened When They Pulled the TARP Out from Under the Mortgage Asset Markets? mortgage markets are imploding

happened; Jesse's Café Américain; Mortgage Asset Markets; pull; TARP.