Tue 2009-09-29 11:14 EDT

Take This Monetary System, Please - Up and Down Wall Street Daily - Barrons.com

RANDALL W. FORSYTH

The current exchange-rate regime can't go on, but what's the alternative?...As long as China's currency remains joined at the hip to the dollar, the impact of the dollar's weakness ironically is felt more outside the U.S. than within its borders. And to keep that exchange rate stable requires China to continue to accumulate U.S. assets, notwithstanding that nation's vocal complaints about American deficits that it is compelled to fund. [reserve currency]

Barrons; com; monetary System; please; take; Wall Street Daily.

naked capitalism Sun 2009-09-20 11:53 EDT

Financial Reform: Not happening but the need is clear

Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns

If you are looking for reform in the financial sector, the moment has passed. And only to the degree that the underlying weaknesses in the global financial system are made manifest and threaten the economy will we see any appetite for reform amongst politicians. So, as I see it, the Obama administration has missed the opportunity for reform...Steve Keen, an Australian economist whose theories are heavily influenced by Hyman Minsky, has a cogent analysis of the true structural deficits in the current economic model...today we have finally reached a level of debt which is so great that another reflation is impossible. The collapse is now....unlike Keen, I am not convinced the time is now...What I would like to see is economic thought leaders developing a blueprint of a financial crisis strategy which tackles both the immediate crisis issues (liquidity) and the structural, regulatory and monetary issues that create financial volatility (solvency). When crisis does occur, I believe it will be systemic in nature due to the forces Keen so lucidly explains. Therefore, a blueprint which is 1) heavy on tactics and, 2) if implemented in a real systemic crisis, is likely to work, builds credibility. This is political capital which will carry over to longer-term preventive strategies and reforms.

clear; Financial reform; happened; naked capitalism; needed.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Sun 2009-09-20 11:23 EDT

Yellen Calls For "U" Shaped Recession and Another Jobless Recovery

Michael Shedlock

...excerpts from Janet Yellen's Outlook for Recovery in the U.S. Economy: ...the complex topic of inflation. In my career, I have never witnessed a situation like the one that exists now, when views about inflation risks have coalesced into two diametrically opposed camps. On the one hand, one group worries about the long-term inflationary implications of a seemingly endless procession of massive federal budget deficits. At the same time, others fear that economic slack and downward wage pressure are pushing inflation below rates that are considered consistent with price stability and even raising the specter of outright deflation... My personal belief is that the more significant threat to price stability over the next several years stems from the disinflationary forces unleashed by the enormous slack in the economy.

Jobless Recovery; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; Shaped Recession; U; Yellen called.

Asia Times Online Sun 2009-09-13 10:25 EDT

THE BEAR'S LAIR : Possible October surprises

Martin Hutchinson

The inflation that might be expected in the United States from unprecedented expansionary monetary policies has failed to appear, while huge budget deficits have yet to produce higher interest rates. Far from being signs of a new economic paradigm, this merely means new bubbles are forming...Commodities and gold therefore are the destination of this year's hot money and are forming the new bubble...a fair-sized bubble has developed in the T-bond market...however...a modest resurgence in US inflation or difficulty in a long dated T-bond auction could cause confidence to flee the Treasury bond market and yields to leap uncontrollably upwards...the long-term costs of excessively cheap money are beginning to be seen in the US economy itself. By allowing money to remain so cheap for so long, and by running incessant payments deficits, the United States has surrendered the advantage of its superior long-established capital base, narrowing its capital cost advantage over emerging markets and exporting that capital to countries with less profligate approaches. Huge budget deficits, themselves worsening the trade deficit, merely export yet more US capital to the surplus nations. That makes it inevitable that the years ahead, in which the United States will no longer enjoy a capital advantage over its lower-wage competitors, will see highly unpleasant declines in US living standards.

Asia Times Online; BEAR'S LAIR; Possible October surprises.

Bruce Krasting Sat 2009-09-12 12:10 EDT

SSTF Shocker - $6B August Deficit

Bruce Krasting

The Social Security Trust Fund reported an August net deficit of $5.865 Billion. This is the largest monthly deficit in nineteen years...This deficit is now the seventh in the past twelve months. That pace has never been seen before...Social Security is the mother of all systemic risks. Even the debate on this topic brings risk. It will expose an additional $7 trillion unfunded liability. Another reason for holders of dollars to worry.

6B August Deficit; Bruce Krasting; SSTF Shocker.

naked capitalism Fri 2009-09-04 18:45 EDT

Stiglitz Doubts Recovery Can Be Sustained

Joseph Stiglitz takes issue with the view of economists (well, economists surveyed by Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, which not surprisingly have a Pollyannish optimistic streak) that the economy is in or on the verge of a recovery. ``In most quarters, there is a feeling we should move away from the dollar system. The question is do we do it in an orderly way, or a chaotic way,'' Stiglitz said. ``The size of the deficit and the size of the balance sheet of the Fed have just increased the anxiety and the desire that something be done...'' Between the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of Lehman Brothers was ``the short period of American triumphalism, where we dominated the global scene. That period is over,'' Stiglitz said.

naked capitalism; Stiglitz Doubts Recovery; sustained.

Thu 2009-07-30 00:00 EDT

Zero Hedge: Guest Post: Tax Revenues Tanking

-- ``the lions share of the planned sales of Treasuries in 2009 cannot be met by demand from the market..Auctions will fail and the Fed will step in...the 2009 budget deficit is more likely to widen to levels between $2.5 and $3 trillion rather than the CBOs $1.8 trillion forecast. We also believe that inflation could start setting in as early as Q3 of 2009 and will accelerate sharply by 2010.''

Guest Post; Tax Revenues Tanking; Zero Hedge.

Tue 2009-06-16 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Guest Post: The Imminent Disinformation Schism

``naive, easily-manipulated, small-time mom and pop investors, who only care about looking at their daily yahoo finance screens and 401(k) statements...and the forward looking taxpayers, who see the upcoming budget deficit fiasco, the social security ponzi scheme, the Medicare/Medicaid debacle, the ridiculous underfunding in public and corporate pension funds, the rising city and state taxes, the shuttering factories, the rising unemployment, the plummeting American production base, the "seasonally" upward-adjusted economic data coupled with consistently downward revised prior economic releases, the increasing savings rate and the multi trillion discrepancy in consumer purchasing power.'' Time contributing author Douglas McIntyre declares end to 2008 banking crisis

Guest Post; Imminent Disinformation Schism; naked capitalism.

Wed 2009-04-01 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Japan Exports Fall By 46% in January, Producing Record Trade Deficit

46; January; Japan Exports Fall; naked capitalism; Producing Record Trade Deficit.

Tue 2009-02-24 00:00 EST

Calculated Risk: The Rebalancing Continues ...

``savings rate is rising, consumption is falling, and the trade deficit is declining''

Calculated Risk; Rebalancing Continues.

Mon 2009-01-19 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: Wolf Versus Pettis on US Stimulus, Fiscal Deficit (Not for the Fainthearted)

Fainthearted; Fiscal deficit; naked capitalism; stimulus; Wolf Versus Pettis.

Thu 2009-01-15 00:00 EST

Calculated Risk: The Ten Trillion Dollar Man Update

total US public debt outstanding exceeds 10 trillion; bush structural budget deficit

Calculated Risk; Trillion Dollar Man Update.

Thu 2008-11-13 00:00 EST

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Strange Case of Falling International Reserves Explored

``Expect to see a narrowing of the reported trade deficit from ~7% to 2% or less of GDP (now at slightly less than 5%).''

Falling International Reserves Explored; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; strange case.

Thu 2008-06-19 00:00 EDT

Ron Paul and Dwight D. Eisenhower -- True Patriots by Jim Quinn

Ron Paul and Dwight D. Eisenhower - True Patriots by Jim Quinn; If as a country we continue to allow our politicians and their military industrial complex corporate sponsors to spend $700+ billion per year on weapons, to the detriment of higher education, alternative energy projects, and national infrastructure needs...as deficits accumulate, the dollar plummets, and inflation rears its ugly head, our great country will decline as other empires who overstepped their bounds declined"

Dwight D. Eisenhower; Jim Quinn; Ron Paul; true patriot.

Thu 2008-03-27 00:00 EDT

It's Time To Cut The Trade Deficit - Forbes.com

It's Time To Cut The Trade Deficit, by Peter Morici - Forbes.com; "Globalization is not an unalloyed good. We don't need 300-horsepower cars. And Wall Street is not a citadel of integrity."

com; cutting; Forbes; Time; Trade Deficit.

Thu 2007-09-13 00:00 EDT

Thomas Palley >> Blog Archive >> The Fed and America's Distorted Expansion

Thomas Palley >> Blog Archive >> The Fed and America's Distorted Expansion; shallow, fragile expansion due to record trade deficits, manufacturing weakness

America's Distorted Expansion; blogs Archive; Fed; Thomas Palley.